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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading
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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

  #81 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Futures Broker
Favorite Futures: AUD
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received

ES Morning
+ 21 ticks (3 contracts x 7 ticks)

Traded 2 trades in ES today. Zen Fire and TST had issues this morning so I do not have a chart. I did not trade for the rest of the day after the outage.

Changes:

I am looking to move over to ES from 6e. I spent a good portion of the last week looking at the different instruments available to trade with the combine. ES came out on top. It provided the least amount of risk for my trade setup. The volatility which occurred during a non news trend was tolerable. I had clear vision of the trends. It trends well and has good liquidity.

I did four weeks of Market Replay on ES and every week was a winner or BE. I did the same weeks on 6e and lost 3 out of 4.

Target daily for ES will be 4 points. Realistically to reach my goal for the combine I need only 2.

I setup a ATM strategy which moves the stop up as it gets closer to the target. It moves it up 1 tick for every tick of profit and when it gets to 7 ticks the stop is moved to the +4 ticks. This will help ensure a profits on hard reversals. I am working on a having a BE component in there but have not found a suitable place to put it.

I gave considerable thought about changing mid-stream but the numbers are to compelling not to give it consideration. We shall see how it works out.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #82 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received

ES Morning

+24 ticks (3 contracts X 8 Ticks)

This will probably be my only trade for the day. Caught the downward movement after the break of the trend line and exited the trade right above the support. I did not hesitate on this trade and there was no second guessing or emotion.

What was the best thing that happened today?
  • I waited for the breakout and took the trade without any hesitation or emotion.

What was the work thing that happened today?
  • When the trade paused I thought about exiting the trade. It was pure emotion. Trying to get over this and let the trade play out and exit only when I have rational reason to exit.

I finally had everything working today. After no trading on Monday and Tuesday and technical problems on Wednesday and missing the majority of yesterday I was able to have a clean start to the day. It was a good day.

This type of trade is my bread and butter. The one thing I would like to do is hold the trade longer. The price after this trade continued lower after my exit. I either have to be ready to re-enter the trade or setup a longer term ATM to capture the bigger moves.

Changes to the chart:
  • I dropped the MA's from the chart and added MA Envelopes. This is helping visualize the trends.
  • I added super trend to the chart. When it super trend line goes flat it suggests a change in direction is coming. It is also can be used as bounce point for the price. I do not use it to enter a trade. Most of the time it catches the top of a trend which makes it totally useless.
  • I am now using a 300 tick chart. This is less choppy than the 100 tick chart.


Robert

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #83 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Columbus Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Posts: 34 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 15 received

Silver


Silver,

Hey. I'm Dave and I am new here. It may be obvious by my post count

I am in Columbus Ohio. I wanted to share a similarity that we both share, besides residing in this great state.

An important note to every reader. Trading is much more enjoyable and POSSIBLE TO BE PROFITABLE by keeping a clean chart. What we try to do here is master a tool, spend a f*ck ton of time watching 1 MARKET WITH ONLY THAT 1 TOOL, and then react.

I consider my love for the markets similar to my love of driving. I find myself constantly evaluating drivers that piss me off, and the only way they can do that is by showing habits of "lack of attention". It is much better for you and your safety to drive past them as quickly as they are picked out. This is a "tool" or "skill" that I use.

We need to use our systems in the same way, we find market movers, aka big money, aka big money attack with little rebound. That is the essence of my tool at least. It shows me how big the attack is, what the defense is to that single attack, and I decide from there.

Folks..... Trading is driving......... Please when you are on the road again and you are behind that guy who brakes too late...... the only thing you need to constantly repeat is, "this guy is gonna get me killed", and that if it happened once it will happen again shortly.........

Also, on the highway, a pattern that I find most enjoyable is the all mighty "brick wall" x the guy who brakes late. That pattern reveals the truth that a brick wall is always always 2-3 cars ahead of you. So what you need to do on the road is pick your teamates and trust them while finding ways to doubt them for redundancy.

While trading, pick your team, and protect your funds with stops..........

Here is my chart. Wanted to post to remind everyone things that have changed my trading......

1. Single tool.
2. Don't change anything.
3. Study until you need a break, eat, sleep, drink, study..... Repeat.
4. Purpose of the tool is to pick your team. Bulls or Bears.
5. Protect funds with stops and daily loss limit's.

Anyone who talks about these, you can try, but, I consider these equivalent to purposely letting air out of your tires when your goal is MPG.

1. CNBC, TV at all really.
2. Following Big Mike members and treating them like gods, having a shitty given/received thanks ratio. The higher the worse on this one. I can smell a n3wb from 20 miles away from using this indicator. No disrespect.
3. Changing your tools
4. Lack of enjoyment - obsession for the patterns and behavior of the markets
5. Making a physical checklist before you enter a trade. Sorry, but that is some pre-school shit.
6. Blaming anything but the above reasons for why you had a shitty day profit wise


MAN UP, DO YOUR HOMEWORK, TALK TO THE GUYS WITH LOW THANKS GIVEN/RECEIVED RATIOS. IF YOU DON'T ENJOY THE MARKETS LIKE I ENJOY THE CONSTANTLY OBVIOUS HUMAN WEAKNESSES APPARENT WHILE DRIVING...... BE HONEST WITH YOURSELF OR YOU WILL PAY DEARLY.

Best of luck to all and may sweet baby jesus bless all Big Mike Trading members with future success.

-Dave Krupar


Oh, and BTW, DO NOT THANK ME FOR THIS POST, WE NEED TO KEEP OUR RATIO'S LOW OR FOREVER BE A MEMBER OF THE N3WB FAILED TRADER CROWD.
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Last edited by dave5578; November 4th, 2012 at 03:17 AM.
 
  #84 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: Futures Broker
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Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received

Quick update.

I finished reading https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13452-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis.html. Gained some excellent insight on ES.

Spent this week trying to take longer term trades. Ended up taking lot of really bad trades in the process. Monday through Wednesday I lost around 1500 in my sim account.

Conclusion: I cannot take longer term trades with my current trading style. Sometimes I get it right but most of the time it ends up reversing. I think this is because I am a counter trend trader. This is why they almost always fail.

Strictly from a numbers perspective to pass the combine I need to have longer term trades. So I did some research last night on being more of a trend trader. Its not much of a change from what I am doing now. It really comes down to what side of the trend line / support I am on and where I take the entry. I put the process into action today and made some good trades. I will post some data thoughts and charts over the weekend.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #85 (permalink)
Elite Member
Raleigh NC
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Mirus/ZenFire
Favorite Futures: Oil
 
Patrick S's Avatar
 
Posts: 628 since May 2012
Thanks: 394 given, 519 received

I like break outs 2

Looking forward to your Journey. I hope to spend some time this weekend going through your trades.

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #86 (permalink)
Elite Member
Raleigh NC
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Mirus/ZenFire
Favorite Futures: Oil
 
Patrick S's Avatar
 
Posts: 628 since May 2012
Thanks: 394 given, 519 received


Silver Dragon View Post
I took 4 trades today. 3 winners and 1 loser. +7 for the overnight session and today. -22 for the week.

Today I was focusing on a new entry signal which should produce more ticks. I missed 2 entries which would have netted a significant return today using the new entry signal. They are the large circles on the chart. There was some uncertainty about entering these trades. I think because this is something new.

I have been practicing in sim but there is nothing like risking real money on something your not totally sure of to cause a momentary hesitation. If you look at those 2 entries there was nearly no risk involved. Next week I am reducing my size to a mini lot to get comfortable with the entries. I did this with my previous setups to get over the hesitation of entries.

I went back over my trades over the last couple of weeks and discovered I am missing lot of movement during the day. The purpose of the new entry signal is capture some of those ticks and potentially big moves.

This weekend I am going to go download replay data from the springtime when I was not watching the markets and trade the new entry signal.

Even with a loss this week I feel very confident about my trading and my progress I am making. In the past I would have been damn near depressed about having a losing week but now I cant wait for next week to get here. I am pumped!

I also used to get a adrenaline rush during a trade but this has gone away. I am very calm while watching the trade. I am focused more on watching the bar movement and trades going through than anything else.

Its interesting to watch the bars and the trades. When trade is trying to break through a resistance or support there is little wiggle dance it does right before breaking through. Then it breaks through the line the same way someone would breakdown a door; it line gives way to the bar with a quick burst of acceleration then (most of the time) it pulls back a little to regain composure before it moves forward.

Failure to break the line has completely different move; it goes up and touches the line 3 or 4 times or more then just hangs in mid air waiting .. then under its own weight it collapses upon itself and goes the other way.

Being able to recognize these movements will give me an edge on getting more precise entries and tighter stops.


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Exactly right!! Can an auto Trade system pick up stuff like that? I don't know. I am not a programmer. maybe it can.
Imho it is action like that that makes trading fun. To watch buyers and sellers battle it out. Excites the hell out of me!
My family laughs at me when I try to show it to them on a chart.. They say Uh Oh! here comes Dad again with his laptop. LOL

If you always do what you have always done you will always get what you have always gotten.
Celebrate because you executed your edge. Not because you won.
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  #87 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Futures Broker
Favorite Futures: AUD
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received

Personal note: Took some time off from futures.io (formerly BMT) to figure some stuff out and to get away for a while. To much of a good thing, even futures.io (formerly BMT), can be bad. The rest was much needed.

The last few weeks have been fruitful. I have been learning price action using techniques by Al Brooks. Really trying to expand my trading. After watching videos posted by @VinceVirgil in his journal https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/23787-cl-crude-oil-futures-contract-trades.html which utilize Al's techniques I realized that I have a long way to go.

Seeing it in a video and reading it in books was one thing but putting it into practice is another. I have lost some thousands in my sim account as a result. But, I am starting to see more positive trades and more importantly starting to see entries and exits improving. I can see this in my losing trades because they are smaller and controlled.

One of the more valued skills I have picked up is the measured move. This has improved my target setting and has kept me out of bad trades because R:R was not worth taking.

I have always been a trend line break trader by nature. Learning to trade the trend has been hard. I have a conflict of wanting to trade the break vs taking the trade on the trend line bounce. I watched the Al Brooks webinar posted here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and found the following stat hard to argue with: 80% of line breaks fail. After hearing that I asked the obvious question why I am trading only breaks?? I should be trading the trend as well

Trading in ranges: I used to avoid this like the plague. Now, I am starting to take trades within the range. This still needs work but is starting to show progress.

The one thing I quickly realized is my current chart setup did not lend itself to the price action trading I was learning. I have been experimenting with different tick settings for ES (currently using 1500) and have been practicing with the 800 tick chart on CL so I can follow Vince's trades.

I know this has been said many times here on futures.io (formerly BMT) but its worth repeating; you really have to find your own trading style. You simply cannot use somebody else's technique. Although I am able to reproduce some of Vince's trades and entries / exits it really was not working for me on a consistent basis. So I have taken what I have learned from Vince and Al and applied it to my Support Resistance and trend line drawing which I have always been good at. The first day trading this way I felt very comfortable trading.

Below are my trades for the day. I over traded ES today. I had two trades where my stop was too tight and I was stopped out only to have the price go back the other way and hit my targets. Plus I totally missed the large downward channel lines which would have kept me from taking 2 other trades.

CL on the other hand was nearly perfect. I had one trade where I entered too early and had my stop to tight.

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.

Last edited by Silver Dragon; November 28th, 2012 at 10:24 AM.
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  #88 (permalink)
Elite Member
Tampa, FL
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Mirus Futures/Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: 6E, M6E, 6J
 
Xav1029's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,374 since Dec 2011
Thanks: 1,452 given, 3,354 received

Good to see you back at it Robert

London Calling
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  #89 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Futures Broker
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Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received

CL Day
-25 ticks

Today started great but ended badly. At one point I was up 35 ticks but ended down 25. I started keeping track of my trades a little more closely. Specifically why I entered the trade. First 7 trades I had clear reason why I entered the trades. The last 2 I have not a clue why I took the trades. The last 3 trades were also my 3 biggest losses of the day.

I had identified the 7th trade as trend line bounce but traded it as a trend line break. Ended up as a loss. Why did I do this? Because it broke trend line quickly and I made quick decision instead of making an informed decision.

I am not letting my trades play out. The first trade of the day should have been a 15 tick gain instead I cut it short @ 8 ticks.

I missed the biggest move of the day, 50 tick move, because it did not look good. The signals were there but I did not pull the trigger. I missed two other trades which were about 30+ ticks total. I think I was trading at the end of the day because I missed out earlier. It cost me big time.


What was the best thing that happened to me today:
  • At the beginning of the day I hit my entries correctly.
  • My best trade of the day I let run its course and kept the stop far enough away so the trade could develop

What was the worst thing that happened to me today
  • Entered into trades I had no business entering.
  • I played a break instead of playing the trend.
  • I over traded

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #90 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received


CL
+52 ticks

Had a good day despite having issues with Zen Fire. I still am not confident entering an existing trend. I did not take 2 trades on the way up today. Each would have hit my 15 tick target. Actually I saw the entry on the open and did not take it. Could of, would of should of..

I made a trade today within a range. This was a first such trade where I recognized the range and took advantage of it.

I played around with the ADX today. Trying to identify strength of trends and when CL starts going into a range. I see where it may be useful but need more time with it. I added TMFT MA trend indicator to the chart to help to see the trend better. I am still on the fence about this one as well. I really like the clean chart but would like to see the trends better.

I set my stops better today. This turned a losing trade into a winning trade.

I am not posting my totals for the day out of NT because the disconnect from Zen Fire messed up my totals. Showing 100 dollars more than I actually made.

What was the best thing that happened to me today:
  • I stuck with my trading plan and only took trades where the rules were met.
  • I stopped trading when I hit a significant profit.
  • I set my stops up better.


What was the worst thing that happened to me today
  • I didnt take two entries on the uptrend. This would have put me above my total tick target for today.

Robert

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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