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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

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  #601 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
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There is something called currency strength indicator that shows weaker and stronger currencies. Might be useful. I am not proponent of trading with no stop but with volatility emergency stop that is lets say twice more that a regular stop you would use manually.

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  #602 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
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xelaar View Post
There is something called currency strength indicator that shows weaker and stronger currencies. Might be useful. I am not proponent of trading with no stop but with volatility emergency stop that is lets say twice more that a regular stop you would use manually.

maybe some statistical analysis would be useful to find the most effective stop loss placement based on the last few months or something. Some back testing would be necessary. I assume time of day would be a key factor as well. Occasional scale outs would be useful I suppose but hard to back test as they would be discretionary decisions. Even with analysis on stop loss placement it would be best to find the closest deviation to a key price level to place the stop you know. I wish I could plug-in key levels into some formula and have it calculate the best stop loss based on previous finds as well as scale outs while price is still moving, kind of like when you make a alternate turn in your car as your gps reroutes.

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  #603 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Itchymoku View Post
maybe some statistical analysis would be useful to find the most effective stop loss placement based on the last few months or something. Some back testing would be necessary. I assume time of day would be a key factor as well. Occasional scale outs would be useful I suppose but hard to back test as they would be discretionary decisions. Even with analysis on stop loss placement it would be best to find the closest deviation to a key price level to place the stop you know. I wish I could plug-in key levels into some formula and have it calculate the best stop loss based on previous finds as well as scale outs while price is still moving, kind of like when you make a alternate turn in your car as your gps reroutes.

Statistical analysis is good, and always should be used once you have collected some stats. I have been trading forex live for several years, it's very notorious to running stops since it is the most manipulated market on a planet and being OTC all sorts of fixing and twisting is there from central banks to your brokers. I have found out that any placement of stops say 5 pips or 10 pips behind any level is just asking to get the stop collected. Unlike in futures, brokers provide the feed and execution, there is no exchange, so a large broker or prime broker sees all the stops or has a pretty good idea of their location given the inventory of their traders, so it is quite easy for them to run the price and hit the stops. My approach would be to use volatility stops related to average true range (or daily range on daily charts) and have it located behind levels. Levels work great in forex but much less precise than in commodities or equities, due to OTC market nature, inconsistent quote feed and variable spread and spread-based execution (unlike last price execution in exchange driven markets, where your stop or entry is not hit unless price has traded there, in forex there is no such a thing as last price, it only has bids and asks and each broker executes differently).

In my opinion the best strategy in forex is to trade between strong levels on daily charts, as most pairs range up to 90% of time, and in case of big move, trade break out pullback to level, effectively trading level again. As simple as that. Day trading forex is a losing proposition due to lack of volatility that you can trade (there are big move but almost exclusively on unexpected news and for very short duration of time, making it impossible to catch - like in euro it can range 40 pips for days and then make 200 pips in 5 minutes on some Draghi comment and come back to ranging again).

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  #604 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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I was in a seminar most of the last week so I did not have any time to monitor the market during the day. I missed out on a Euro and AUD play. I am not upset about missing the trades. There will be others. This weekend has been kind of crazy too. Just now sitting down to look at charts for next week.

The daily charts (so far) offer a couple setups a week which could yield 50 to 100 ticks each. This is what I am focusing on in this stage of the learning process. Using a 60 minute chart to gauge the entry position.

Below is my single trade last week for 9 ticks.

Robert



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  #605 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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Had a overnight trade in GBPUSD. I made a ton of mistakes on this trade which I will detail later.

Ended +45 ticks.

I missed the entry on USDJPY.. waiting for the perfect entry. I am waiting for a pull back now.

I think, actually I know , I am over thinking my entries.. I have to trust my instincts and just go with.

Robert


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  #606 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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Silver Dragon View Post
Had a overnight trade in GBPUSD. I made a ton of mistakes on this trade which I will detail later.

Ended +45 ticks.

I missed the entry on USDJPY.. waiting for the perfect entry. I am waiting for a pull back now.

I think, actually I know , I am over thinking my entries.. I have to trust my instincts and just go with.

Robert



Mistakes made:

I am using my brokers platform to place trades. Main reason is because on Ninja the orders are on the local machine and not the trading server. A disconnect will cause trades to be cancelled an then you have a naked position. Since the trades are overnight I really wanted to protect myself against disconnects and a trade gone bad. However, my brokers software is not the most intuitive. The stop on every order is set for a long. You have to manually move it above the entry for shorts.. well I forgot to move it and enter the trade and was immediately stopped out. I went ahead and reentered the trade with the correct settings.

Even though I had two entries I still rushed the trade entry because I did not want to miss the break. As soon as I entered the trade I saw a bullish signal and said to myself, if I were day trading I would go long here. Then I say the trend line and knew exactly where I it was going. Price hit the trend line and reversed. Perhaps I was being too perfect..

Finally I did not have a target set. This is my fault.. the software is difficult to set targets and stops and it was late and I did not feel like fooling with it after I messed up the first entry... so I entered the trade with just the stop. Should have taken the time to set the target because It would have been nice 100 tick gain overnight. By the time I was able to look at it again I had given back half of the potential profit. Looking at the strong morning move I decided to call it and closed the position so to not add insult to injury by losing all my profit.

Overall it was a good trade but it could have been a great trade.

Robert



Entry signal on Daily:

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  #607 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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Entered a trade yesterday on AUDUSD. I was expecting a stronger move off the trend line but it did not happen. With the overall momentum being down and news report yesterday saying they expect AUD to be near 88 for 2014 I decided to take my profits here. My entry was about 20 ticks off the low and my exit was 10 ticks from the MFE.

I have been thinking about adding a runner. I guess I could have done it with this trade since I had two lots. Next time.

ended the trade +25 ticks x 2 lots.



Entry:


Exit:

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  #608 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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Trade note from yesterday:

I missed the pop yesterday in AUDUSD by a couple of hours. Making a note of time of day. I should also note it could have easily gone the other way. I made the right trading decision based on how I was playing the trade. However in hindsight there was a optimal trade setup: - sell first position where I exited yesterday and leave a runner. Move the stop to BE plus a couple of ticks. Exit at resistance.

Robert


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  #609 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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Late in posting last weeks results. Made 70 ticks for the week.

Thoughts on the week - I over managed my AUD position. I was trying to be too precise and overly cautious. I didn't take several other trades because the entries were not perfect. I played around with Ninja a little bit.. still not 100% on going back to trading with it.



This week:
I have not touched a chart this week. I have been too busy getting ready for the holidays and really busy at work. I have a feeling the way things are going my trading will be sporadic until next year.

Robert

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  #610 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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If I had any understanding when I first started trading, I would have traded forex. The scalability offers so many things that were just not possible in futures. Glad to see you trading it and keeping such good track of your progress and thoughts.

Being able to scale in and scale out to 1/100 of a full lot takes a lot of pressure off of trading, slows everything down considerably. Being able to pick the right "area" is so much easier than the "perfect entry". Have you played much with scaling?

 
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  #611 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Silver Dragon View Post
I played around with Ninja a little bit.. still not 100% on going back to trading with it.

STILL, not a single problem with SC operating..

 
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  #612 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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GaryD View Post
STILL, not a single problem with SC operating..

What broker do you use for Sierra in forex? I have noticed all of them don't offer OCO server based functionality. Less of a problem for longer duration trades though.

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  #613 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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GaryD View Post
If I had any understanding when I first started trading, I would have traded forex. The scalability offers so many things that were just not possible in futures. Glad to see you trading it and keeping such good track of your progress and thoughts.

Being able to scale in and scale out to 1/100 of a full lot takes a lot of pressure off of trading, slows everything down considerably. Being able to pick the right "area" is so much easier than the "perfect entry". Have you played much with scaling?



@GaryD

I have come full circle; Started out trading Forex and then went to futures and now back to Forex. I now find Forex easier to trade than futures for the same reasons you mentioned.

Yes, I used scaling on my AUD trade last week. I plan on using it more as my trading progresses. Right now I am process of defining and testing entry rules which is causing me to look for the perfect entry. The other part of the equation is to determine what my "full position" size will be. From there I can then manage my risk by scaling into 1st position, 2nd position all the way up to the full position size. Then I can start looking for the right area instead of the perfect entry.


GaryD View Post
STILL, not a single problem with SC operating..



xelaar View Post
What broker do you use for Sierra in forex? I have noticed all of them don't offer OCO server based functionality. Less of a problem for longer duration trades though.

The broker I am using does not support SC. Thinking of changing. I am currently using a combination of MT4 for charting and their legacy software, which is horrible, to enter trades. I would like to use just MT4 but it requires me to open another account. The only other software choice is to use NT. But to @xelaar point; the OCO is on the client side which means if I get disconnected I run the risk of having a naked position. Normally this is not a problem if I were day trading, but since I am holding overnight it becomes a larger risk.

Does your broker use client side OCO orders or server side?

Robert

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  #614 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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Silver Dragon View Post
@But to xelaar point; the OCO is on the client side which means if I get disconnected I run the risk of having a naked position. Normally this is not a problem if I were day trading, but since I am holding overnight it becomes a larger risk.

Does your broker use client side OCO orders or server side?

Robert

From what I have checked no Forex brokers Sierra supports offer server based OCO. Nor futures, except CTS.
I don't think you can have Ninja with server OCO for Forex either. I would use MT4 instead, all except trailing is server based and it is quite robust if you pepper it with some short-cut scripts and trade management EAs.

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  #615 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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xelaar View Post
What broker do you use for Sierra in forex? I have noticed all of them don't offer OCO server based functionality. Less of a problem for longer duration trades though.

FXCM

 
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  #616 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Silver Dragon View Post


Does your broker use client side OCO orders or server side?

Robert

FXCM offers free VPS. You can use platforms other than MT4, and the cost is waived if you maintain a 5k+ balance.

http://www.fxcm.com/products/metatrader-4/free-mt4-vps/

 
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  #617 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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GaryD View Post
FXCM offers free VPS. You can use platforms other than MT4, and the cost is waived if you maintain a 5k+ balance.

https://www.fxcm.com/products/metatrader-4/free-mt4-vps/

Mt4 is fine. I've got impression you use Sierra with a server side oco.

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  #618 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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xelaar View Post
Mt4 is fine. I've got impression you use Sierra with a server side oco.

I have not signed up yet although I do meet the criteria. I looked at Big Tick for the same reason, but still, just have not gotten to it. After 6 years I have not seen a condition where it matters for me in a short term trade. That does not mean it won't happen, and overnight, yes, I have been nailed hard. But I have order desks on speed dial and never trade without a phone. And it happens so rarely for me, just have a very stable connection I guess? I do have a dedicated line for trading separate from our wifi and cable tv, comes as it's own bill.

But this came up the other day when I had to call the trade desk about something else, where an order I had did not cancel. This is the email that followed;


"Gary,

Thank you for your interest in FXCM. Here is the link to the VPS signup. Remember, you can use other platforms on the VPS other than MT4 and the cost is waived if you maintain a 5k+ balance

Best regards,

Bobby Neary
FXCM
212-897-7660
rneary@fxcm.com "

 
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  #619 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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GaryD View Post
I have not signed up yet although I do meet the criteria. I looked at Big Tick for the same reason, but still, just have not gotten to it. After 6 years I have not seen a condition where it matters for me in a short term trade. That does not mean it won't happen, and overnight, yes, I have been nailed hard. But I have order desks on speed dial and never trade without a phone. And it happens so rarely for me, just have a very stable connection I guess? I do have a dedicated line for trading separate from our wifi and cable tv, comes as it's own bill.

But this came up the other day when I had to call the trade desk about something else, where an order I had did not cancel. This is the email that followed;


"Gary,

Thank you for your interest in FXCM. Here is the link to the VPS signup. Remember, you can use other platforms on the VPS other than MT4 and the cost is waived if you maintain a 5k+ balance

Best regards,

Bobby Neary
FXCM
212-897-7660
rneary@fxcm.com "

There are many workarounds. I was just curious if it really has serverside oco.

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  #620 (permalink)
 Jason Rogers 
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xelaar View Post
There are many workarounds. I was just curious if it really has serverside oco.

Hi Xelaar,

FXCM's Trading Station platform has server side OCO orders. We also offer the NinjaTrader platform which has platform side OCO orders. However, you can still log into Trading Station using an FXCM NinjaTrader login and place OCO orders on the account that way. MT4 does not have OCO orders, but again you can use an FXCM MT4 account login to access Trading Station to place OCO orders on the account.

Jason

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  #621 (permalink)
 xelaar 
prague, czech republic
 
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This guy is pitching so agressive, OMG. Please don't PM me again, not interested in FXCM.

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  #622 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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Greetings all,

Found my way back to futures.io (formerly BMT) after taking some significant time off. First an update; I had an opportunity come up at my day job that I could not pass up. It allowed me to do something I love to do (besides trading!) and get paid for doing it. There is no better combination. I have been working 60 to 80 hours a week for the past 6+ months. However, work is finally getting manageable, meaning I now down to 50 hours a week, and I can start doing other things again.

On a personal level; I started weight training and have dropped 30 pounds since April. I have also have continued my study of mindfulness which has helped me keep my emotions in check and helped me see things in the world I have never seen or experienced before. For those who practice mindfulness or want to know more; here is a great app in the Apple App store called Mindfulness Daily.

Part of the reason I stopped trading and posting was I was no longer happy with any of it; trading, posting, the day to day stuff just was not cutting anymore. I became bitter and angry with what I was doing. So eventually I just quit. The bizarre thing was I actually trading well when I walked away. But every time I thought about trading there after I just got a bad feeling and just stayed away. Then the new opportunity at work came along and trading was pretty much out of sight and out of mind.

Then a few months ago I came across a video which changed how I looked at all things I have done and the past and will change how I do things going forward. It was presentation by Simon Sinek @ TED which talked about the Golden Circle. I have posted the link below. It was really a life changing event for me. It was one of those teachable moments which I wish would have happened 20 years ago!! When I looked at my own life I realized where I succeeded the “why I was doing it” was solid, achievable, I believed in it, enjoyed it and I had passion for it. All these things equal success! I immediately applied this logic to my workouts and weight loss, which had been not so good up to this point, and suddenly they became sustainable and energized. My life all around became even better. As I said, life changing!

Fast forward to last month; I ran across my personal journal for trading. As I was looking at my goals I quickly realized the “why” was trading for all the wrong reasons. (but they felt so right at the time!) So, I started crossing out wrong reasons and added a few more reasons to trade. Now it feels right, and when I think about trading its with the same passion I have always had but now my goals and ambitions are in line with my passion. The biggest change is I am no longer seeking full time trading; I am just seeking to trade and enjoy what I what I do. Not to say I will never trade full time, however, now is not right time.

As I said, at the time I wrote at my original goals they felt right, meaning by the time the end came around that I had changed. Thus it came to pass; the man I am today may not be the man I am tomorrow. This was something that I have always known, but did not take into account as to why I didn’t want to trade anymore. In the end the whole experience reminded me of a quote from J.R.R Tolkien which sums it up nicely:


Quoting 
“How do you pick up the threads of an old life? How do you go on, when in your heart, you begin to understand, there is no going back? There are some things that time cannot mend. Some hurts that go too deep...that have taken hold.”

There is no going back to where I was when I started this journal... that part of my life is gone… However, I am happy to move forward with the life I have now.

So what’s next? I plan on continuing to learn to trade. I plan on doing a combine on TST again. However, this will happen when I am ready. Maybe a new journal.. I want to get back into posting on futures.io (formerly BMT); I Enjoy the community and helping people out. It should be fun!

Robert

Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action | Talk Video | TED.com

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  #623 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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  #624 (permalink)
 cory 
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Silver Dragon View Post
Greetings all,
...

Then a few months ago I came across a video which changed how I looked at all things I have done and the past and will change how I do things going forward. It was presentation by Simon Sinek @ TED which talked about the Golden Circle. I have posted the link below. It was really a life changing event for me. It was one of those teachable moments which I wish would have happened 20 years ago!!..
Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action | Talk Video | TED.com

just watch the vid but how do you apply it? you flip your list of goals upside down?

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 Daytrader999 
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@Silver Dragon:

Good to see you back around here Robert!

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cory View Post
just watch the vid but how do you apply it? you flip your list of goals upside down?

Hey @cory,

Best way to describe is to give a example. I am going to use what I went through with exercising because most people can relate to the experience.

Back in April I looked in the mirror and decided I needed to lose weight. Came up with a plan which per the video I did it from the outside in:
  • What do I “need” to do: Lose Weight
  • How am I going lose weight: I have a punching bag and weights in the basement. I will use the workout plan I have always used. (which I did)
  • Why am I going to lose weight: because I looked awful. At least that is what I was thinking.. I really did not have a why defined beyond that.
.

For those who have struggled with working out or weight loss the following will probably sound familiar. The first week or two I was into it but then I found every reason in the book not to do it. Yeah I looked awful, but I don’t look that bad. Besides it just felt like too much work.

This is what I came up with when I worked from the inside out. Again, this is my actual reason for working out!
  • Why am I going to lose weight: I am getting older. My window of opportunity to get into the shape I have always wanted to be in is rapidly closing. If I don’t do it now it will never happen.
  • How was I going to lose weight: Well, I know I need aerobics to get my stamina up; use the punching bag. I need weight training to build more muscle to burn more calories; use the weights. Design a custom workout and diet to fit my needs.
  • What am I going do; Get into the best shape of my life!

See the difference? The why provides purpose, drive, motivation. I can believe in it. I have also discovered the “why” actually enhances and defines the “what” and the “how”.

My “why” has changed since I started working out. In the beginning every time I would think about not working out I remind myself the window is closing. Great motivation! I went 2 months straight working out 3 to 4 nights a week. Along the way my “why” has changed a little. I still realize my window is closing but I have added: I feel great, look great and want to continue to feel and look great.

Hope this answers your question.

Robert

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 PandaWarrior 
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Awesome video....should be required viewing for all people everywhere....but very applicable to traders.....so easy to lose sight of why we do what we do......


Silver Dragon View Post
Greetings all,

Found my way back to futures.io (formerly BMT) after taking some significant time off. First an update; I had an opportunity come up at my day job that I could not pass up. It allowed me to do something I love to do (besides trading!) and get paid for doing it. There is no better combination. I have been working 60 to 80 hours a week for the past 6+ months. However, work is finally getting manageable, meaning I now down to 50 hours a week, and I can start doing other things again.

On a personal level; I started weight training and have dropped 30 pounds since April. I have also have continued my study of mindfulness which has helped me keep my emotions in check and helped me see things in the world I have never seen or experienced before. For those who practice mindfulness or want to know more; here is a great app in the Apple App store called Mindfulness Daily.

Part of the reason I stopped trading and posting was I was no longer happy with any of it; trading, posting, the day to day stuff just was not cutting anymore. I became bitter and angry with what I was doing. So eventually I just quit. The bizarre thing was I actually trading well when I walked away. But every time I thought about trading there after I just got a bad feeling and just stayed away. Then the new opportunity at work came along and trading was pretty much out of sight and out of mind.

Then a few months ago I came across a video which changed how I looked at all things I have done and the past and will change how I do things going forward. It was presentation by Simon Sinek @ TED which talked about the Golden Circle. I have posted the link below. It was really a life changing event for me. It was one of those teachable moments which I wish would have happened 20 years ago!! When I looked at my own life I realized where I succeeded the “why I was doing it” was solid, achievable, I believed in it, enjoyed it and I had passion for it. All these things equal success! I immediately applied this logic to my workouts and weight loss, which had been not so good up to this point, and suddenly they became sustainable and energized. My life all around became even better. As I said, life changing!

Fast forward to last month; I ran across my personal journal for trading. As I was looking at my goals I quickly realized the “why” was trading for all the wrong reasons. (but they felt so right at the time!) So, I started crossing out wrong reasons and added a few more reasons to trade. Now it feels right, and when I think about trading its with the same passion I have always had but now my goals and ambitions are in line with my passion. The biggest change is I am no longer seeking full time trading; I am just seeking to trade and enjoy what I what I do. Not to say I will never trade full time, however, now is not right time.

As I said, at the time I wrote at my original goals they felt right, meaning by the time the end came around that I had changed. Thus it came to pass; the man I am today may not be the man I am tomorrow. This was something that I have always known, but did not take into account as to why I didn’t want to trade anymore. In the end the whole experience reminded me of a quote from J.R.R Tolkien which sums it up nicely:



There is no going back to where I was when I started this journal... that part of my life is gone… However, I am happy to move forward with the life I have now.

So what’s next? I plan on continuing to learn to trade. I plan on doing a combine on TST again. However, this will happen when I am ready. Maybe a new journal.. I want to get back into posting on futures.io (formerly BMT); I Enjoy the community and helping people out. It should be fun!

Robert

Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action | Talk Video | TED.com


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 Silver Dragon 
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Slowly climbing back into the swing of things. I have been focused on watching the AUD and getting a general idea of when, how and why I want to trade it. Based on this I have gravitated toward nightly short term trading and longer term swing trading.

The main premise is trading the opening range; daily and monthly. This fits my trading style. Below are a couple of initial charts (subject to change). The monthly VWAP was added on top of the opening range for some context on the intra day chart. Daily chart consists of envelopes and Price Action Swing.


.

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Excerpt from my personal journal last week:


Quoting 
Profit is nothing more than a result of an action.

I have spent my entire trading career focusing on Profit. Every time something didn't meet my "profit expectations" I would change the formula. I would add new indicators, change the time frame, change what I was trading. Looking back, I wonder how many of my strategies would have have actually made money had I stuck with them and learned to trade them.

Today I am focused on the action: the trade, more specifically the process which makes up the trade. Instead of looking at a specific amount of profit to make I will focus on the trade and learning the markets.

High level plan going forward:
  • Focus on the Action (the trade)
  • Trade a plan
  • Focus on learning not profits

My shoulders feel lighter already.

Robert

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 Silver Dragon 
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Observations of the 60 minute chart. Pretty straight forward. Two overnight trades off the upper and lower VWAP i would have been comfortable taking.


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 Silver Dragon 
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Here is the daily... Looking for direction. Right now price is staying in the 5 day opening range. Looking for a swing trade out of the box.


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 Silver Dragon 
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Thinking out loud...

I have my trading path laid out. One decision left; SIM or Real money... There are arguments for both... for me its coming down this: when do I want to inject emotions into the equation. My initial thought is to get used to the trading system and then work it in slowly. My fear with this is that I will never work it in........

Setting a public deadline of this weekend to make a decision.

Robert

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Silver Dragon View Post
Thinking out loud...

I have my trading path laid out. One decision left; SIM or Real money... There are arguments for both... for me its coming down this: when do I want to inject emotions into the equation. My initial thought is to get used to the trading system and then work it in slowly. My fear with this is that I will never work it in........

Setting a public deadline of this weekend to make a decision.

Robert


My two cents....real money, small size....small enough you simply can't care which way it goes...ramp it up from there....

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The plan right now is to make observations, note them and trade what I already know how to do. +17 ticks tonight

What I missed from my initial observation; price was in a downward trend from last night.

Edit: Trade was SIM


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Didnt get to trade last night. Notes are on the chart on what I saw. My lower projected target of 8710 was hit. I was a little undecided about which direction it would go. However my bias was lower based on price action from the past week. This would have been a good overnight trade.


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Tonight's trade was positive. My original target was higher but didnt want to hold overnight. I will see tomorrow if the upper target is hit.





Robert

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Edit: for some reason the charts were not showing up. Fixed it


Silver Dragon View Post
Tonight's trade was positive. My original target was higher but didnt want to hold overnight. I will see tomorrow if the upper target is hit.






Robert


See notes on chart


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Silver Dragon View Post
Thinking out loud...

I have my trading path laid out. One decision left; SIM or Real money... There are arguments for both... for me its coming down this: when do I want to inject emotions into the equation. My initial thought is to get used to the trading system and then work it in slowly. My fear with this is that I will never work it in........

Setting a public deadline of this weekend to make a decision.

Robert

I decided I am going with real money. I will start the week of October 27th.

As to "why" I decided to go this route; Because I fear it... I am at a point in my in my trading career / life where if I do this I probably never will. Knowing this, I accept that I have fear and all the risks which go along with it.

Robert

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I have put together core beliefs for my trading. I will build off this going forward

Core beliefs
  1. Profit is nothing more than the result of an action.
  2. Knowing what type of trader I am and accepting it, is one of the keys to success.
  3. Understanding I am unique in how I trade and that I cannot follow or emulate other traders, guru's or market experts will keep me focused and on the road to success.
  4. I am responsible for the outcome of my trades and ultimately my success or failure. I will not blame the markets, guru's, my broker or any other trader or entity for my successes or failures.
  5. Its not the chart, indicators or what I trade which will determine my success; its me.

What I have learned is that 99% of trading is in your head. Or at least mine anyways. I believe I have the skills to trade, but now I need to develop the physiological aspect to execute the my process consistently and effectively.

Robert

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Silver Dragon View Post
Edit: for some reason the charts were not showing up. Fixed it




See notes on chart


I don't know the exact formula for determining where to enter but two things jump out at me from this chart.

1. The entry seems to be random....its not at the OR and its not at the confirmation bar high....it in the middle....

2. It seems logical to wait until the trend line was broken, wait for the retest of the levels....and then go long....

Again, I have no idea what the entry rules are so my observations might be in direct conflict with the rules.....but those two things did leap off the chart at me....

Otherwise, I love the simplicity of the charts, the idea of only taking one trade.....love it....

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PandaWarrior View Post
I don't know the exact formula for determining where to enter but two things jump out at me from this chart.

1. The entry seems to be random....its not at the OR and its not at the confirmation bar high....it in the middle....

2. It seems logical to wait until the trend line was broken, wait for the retest of the levels....and then go long....

Again, I have no idea what the entry rules are so my observations might be in direct conflict with the rules.....but those two things did leap off the chart at me....

Otherwise, I love the simplicity of the charts, the idea of only taking one trade.....love it....

@PandaWarrior,

Brian,

As always, Thanks for the feedback! There is a method to my entries. I will walk through what I saw before taking the trade and then the explanation of the entry / exit.

First the daily chart; Price has yet to move out of the 5 day opening range. So until this changes I am trading the range.



60 minute chart.

As mentioned, price has been in a range. Pretty much when it gets to the upper half or the lower half of the VWAP price reverses and trends to the opposite side. With this knowledge I have a bias going into a trade.

I marked 1 through 4 on the chart. Below is the explanation of the trade. Note: I originally was going to hold this overnight but changed my mind. This is why the target is higher than it should be.
  1. Earlier in the day price reached the second band of the VWAP and bounced off the lower channel line. So on the opening of the night session my bias was toward the buy side.
    .
  2. With my bias being toward the buy side I waited for a reverse from the early sell off. My reasoning; if I was wrong and it continued lower then I have lost nothing. If I am correct and it reverses then I can catch the movement to the upside. The reason I did not wait for the trend line to be broke is because price already faked out to the down side and reversed hard to the upside. This reversal combined by my buy bias gave me the confidence price was going to go higher. I will admit though, I was watching screen closely for the trend line to be broken.
    .
  3. For the entry of my short term trades I use the IB upper/lower lines. I place my entry 1 tick above the IB upper 1 line to go long and 1 tick below the IB lower 1 line to go short.
    .
  4. My exit for short term trades is the IB upper/lower 3 line. I generally place the target 1 to 2 ticks below/above the upper/lower IB 3 line.



Clean Chart - zoomed




Thats it. Simple and straight forward. My edge is I always have a trade bias going into a trade. I always have a entry point and I always have a exit point.

What I am working toward is overnight trades and longer term trend trades. I had a couple overnight paper trades this week which were positive and one loser. It will probably take me a couple of months before I can start consistently taking those trades. Until then I am content with my short term trades.

Robert

Note: For those interested I have attached the IB Range bands which are used on the chart.

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@Silver Dragon, a search seems to indicate that is an Elite indicator. I removed it since this is a non-Elite thread. Link to it instead.

Mike

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just an observation

it looks like you're using the forex session template to trade aud/usd. that template starts at 5:00 pm and ends at 5:00 pm eastern time. but those times really don't mean that much since the forex market is available 24 hours a day.

now I'm not sure if an opening range, starting at 5:00 pm eastern time makes sense. wouldn't it make more sense to use the u.s. or australian open (or both) for the opening range? I think trading hours are considered from 8:00 am - 4:00 pm local time. of course you could also use the open from the stock market at 9:30 am for the u.s. open.

just a thought.

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 Silver Dragon 
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Tonight's trade was positive. See notes on chart. I think there is a chance for a reversal lower because price pierced the lower channel twice on Thursday.





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Silvester17 View Post
just an observation

it looks like you're using the forex session template to trade aud/usd. that template starts at 5:00 pm and ends at 5:00 pm eastern time. but those times really don't mean that much since the forex market is available 24 hours a day.

now I'm not sure if an opening range, starting at 5:00 pm eastern time makes sense. wouldn't it make more sense to use the u.s. or australian open (or both) for the opening range? I think trading hours are considered from 8:00 am - 4:00 pm local time. of course you could also use the open from the stock market at 9:30 am for the u.s. open.

just a thought.

@Silvester17

Thanks for the feedback! Sydney opens up at 7 pm EST. By taking the 5 pm open it allows me to capture the opening move the Sydney stock exchange. If I were to use the 7 pm open I would miss the major moves and it could delay me getting into a trade potentially by several hours. I currently do not have time to trade during RTH of the US; my window for trading is between 5 pm & 9 pm.

Robert

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@Silvester17

Thanks for the feedback! Sydney opens up at 7 pm EST. By taking the 5 pm open it allows me to capture the opening move the Sydney stock exchange. If I were to use the 7 pm open I would miss the major moves and it could delay me getting into a trade potentially by several hours. I currently do not have time to trade during RTH of the US; my window for trading is between 5 pm & 9 pm.

Robert

I have to apologize. 5:00 pm eastern time is actually 8:00 am sidney time. I made a time conversion mistake. so the 5:00 pm opening range should work just fine.

really sorry for the interruption.

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Note to self:

One of my biggest faults in trading is over analyzing the trade. Remember: keep it simple and high level. Everything else is just noise.

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Note to self:

One of my biggest faults in trading is over analyzing the trade. Remember: keep it simple and high level. Everything else is just noise.

Indeed!

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Note to self:

One of my biggest faults in trading is over analyzing the trade. Remember: keep it simple and high level. Everything else is just noise.

The only thing I did right tonight was exiting the trade because I knew I was wrong. I totally over analyzed the trade. My notes are short on the chart because had I written them out I would have not made the trade. Instead I made all sorts of assumptions in my head and convinced myself to take the trade.

What I didnt write down: What I saw when I first looked at the chart was the long uppers wicks and small bodies of the candles from today. This was sign of indecision. My initial thought was dont trade.. this was the right move.

This is one area where I need to have a process in place to stop myself from trading. If I cannot write down why I would or would not take the trade then I need to walk away and not trade at all.

Robert



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I had a chance to place a trade earlier in the day. This was a low risk trade (IMO). Price was rejected twice on the upper trend line. I took the short. I added the the position but I think I added too late. (I think). News came out and pushed prices lower, near the lower trend line. Decided to get out there because price was moved by volatility instead of normal price action.

I did not have a target in place for this trade. I honestly didnt think price would get there as quickly as it did.

On my list to learn: How to scale into a position.

Robert




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I had a chance to place a trade earlier in the day. This was a low risk trade (IMO). Price was rejected twice on the upper trend line. I took the short. I added the the position but I think I added too late. (I think). News came out and pushed prices lower, near the lower trend line. Decided to get out there because price was moved by volatility instead of normal price action.

I did not have a target in place for this trade. I honestly didnt think price would get there as quickly as it did.

On my list to learn: How to scale into a position.

Robert




Just suggestions....

I think add on's should be at locations you would otherwise like to initiate a new position if you weren't already in one. Or you can add to it on breaks of significant levels......

Here's a chart with three possibles...


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Just suggestions....

I think add on's should be at locations you would otherwise like to initiate a new position if you weren't already in one. Or you can add to it on breaks of significant levels......

Here's a chart with three possibles...


Thanks Brian! This makes sense. Interestingly, when you highlight the suggested entry points I can see it.. but take the arrows off the chart and I am clueless. Clearly, I am newbie!

Found this while searching the webinars:


Going to start with this and your comments and begin the learning process.

Robert

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Thanks Brian! This makes sense. Interestingly, when you highlight the suggested entry points I can see it.. but take the arrows off the chart and I am clueless. Clearly, I am newbie!

Found this while searching the webinars:


Going to start with this and your comments and begin the learning process.

Robert

hmmmm, didnt know he'd done a webinar like this....I might watch it tomorrow just to see....but I'm not an Al Brooks fan as such at least in terms of his teaching style....(boring) but still, hopefully there's some value there.

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No trades tonight. Price is coming to the end of a flag pattern, not much movement. Looking to enter a longer term trade if it breaks out.

Robert





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Yesterday I took a live trade. I wanted to make sure my account was setup correctly and orders were going through properly before starting next week.

Trade went as planned. The entry was slightly late (a couple of ticks) but the target was spot on. Had this trade been in the middle of the week I would have held through the close because I felt price could have made it back to the middle of the range. Instead I took a profit where I thought price would pause. There is to much going in the world to risk holding through the weekend.

On the Daily chart; Price has broken out of both sides of the flag formation. We are now in a range; 8850 is the upper end of the range and 8650 is the lower end of the range.




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My self evaluation before starting live trading.

I will be starting my live trading next week. Below is my self evaluation of where I am at.

High Level
I have confidence going into next week. I am nervous, but its not the fear which has plagued me in the past. Not worrying about how much profit I want or have to make has taken a huge weight off my shoulders. This has allowed my to take good trades without hesitation. I now have setups I believe in. This has helped overcome my hesitation and second guessing when taking trades.

My Edge
I have one! So here is mine: I believe in my setups and that over time they give me clues to the direction of the market and allow me to take advantage of price movement.

Goals:
My first goal is to gain confidence and take trades consistently. This will be my foundation. The next goal is to try different types of trades and increase size with scaling in and out. Once these goals are reached I will re-evaluate where I am at and determine the next steps.

Old Habits
This week I felt myself falling back into old habits; wanting to change my charts; wanting to rush into longer term trades(wanting to change!!); worrying about being right. For the moment, I have squashed these emotions.

Doing too much!
One of my biggest faults is getting totally immersed in whatever it is I am doing. I tend to go full steam ahead learning as much as possible. This leads to changing and adding things to the original process as I go. The downside to this is I never give my original idea enough time to see if it even works before I start modifying the process. The last two days I have spent hours trying to enhance my setups. I stopped this immediately when I realized what I was doing.

What I am learning
  • Scaling in and out of positions
  • Letting trades run
  • Better stop placement
  • Short term and long term trades; trades lasting several days to several weeks.

Best trades I have taken:
  • I had entry rules defined
  • I waited for the setup.
  • I diagnosed the market prior to taking the trade.
  • Before taking the trade I listed out the What, How and Why I was taking the trade.

Worst trades I have taken:
  • Trades where I did not define the "Why" I was taking the trade.
  • Trades where I ignored my instinct.
  • Trades where I ignored my rules

Trade entry types which are working:.

Trade entries which are not working:
  • Break of support / resistance. I tested several trades this week and they failed miserably. I had no confidence in these trades.

Conclusion;
When taking trades where I believe in the setups I have a much better outcome. Defining "Why" I am taking the trade keeps me from making a emotional decision. If I cannot write down why I am taking the trade then I should not be taking the trade.

Robert

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My self evaluation before starting live trading.



I will be starting my live trading next week. Below is my self evaluation of where I am at.



High Level

I have confidence going into next week. I am nervous, but its not the fear which has plagued me in the past. Not worrying about how much profit I want or have to make has taken a huge weight off my shoulders. This has allowed my to take good trades without hesitation. I now have setups I believe in. This has helped overcome my hesitation and second guessing when taking trades.



My Edge

I have one! So here is mine: I believe in my setups and that over time they give me clues to the direction of the market and allow me to take advantage of price movement.



Goals:

My first goal is to gain confidence and take trades consistently. This will be my foundation. The next goal is to try different types of trades and increase size with scaling in and out. Once these goals are reached I will re-evaluate where I am at and determine the next steps.



Old Habits

This week I felt myself falling back into old habits; wanting to change my charts; wanting to rush into longer term trades(wanting to change!!); worrying about being right. For the moment, I have squashed these emotions.



Doing too much!

One of my biggest faults is getting totally immersed in whatever it is I am doing. I tend to go full steam ahead learning as much as possible. This leads to changing and adding things to the original process as I go. The downside to this is I never give my original idea enough time to see if it even works before I start modifying the process. The last two days I have spent hours trying to enhance my setups. I stopped this immediately when I realized what I was doing.



What I am learning
  • Scaling in and out of positions
  • Letting trades run
  • Better stop placement
  • Short term and long term trades; trades lasting several days to several weeks.



Best trades I have taken:
  • I had entry rules defined
  • I waited for the setup.
  • I diagnosed the market prior to taking the trade.
  • Before taking the trade I listed out the What, How and Why I was taking the trade.



Worst trades I have taken:
  • Trades where I did not define the "Why" I was taking the trade.
  • Trades where I ignored my instinct.
  • Trades where I ignored my rules



Trade entry types which are working:
.



Trade entries which are not working:
  • Break of support / resistance. I tested several trades this week and they failed miserably. I had no confidence in these trades.



Conclusion;

When taking trades where I believe in the setups I have a much better outcome. Defining "Why" I am taking the trade keeps me from making a emotional decision. If I cannot write down why I am taking the trade then I should not be taking the trade.



Robert


Robert,

I think your there....it's been methodical, well thought out process to get back live.....

If you don't mind, could you reply to this post with 2-3 examples of the break trades that failed? I would like to see how you approach this and perhaps offer an outside view in either why they failed or perhaps a different way to approaching this to test in the future.

All around excellent job!

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Robert,

I think your there....it's been methodical, well thought out process to get back live.....

If you don't mind, could you reply to this post with 2-3 examples of the break trades that failed? I would like to see how you approach this and perhaps offer an outside view in either why they failed or perhaps a different way to approaching this to test in the future.

All around excellent job!

@PandaWarrior

Brian,

Thanks for the feedback!

Below is an example of a trend line / support break. Perhaps I should have waited for price to close below the support and lower channel line.

Robert




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@PandaWarrior

Brian,

Thanks for the feedback!

Below is an example of a trend line / support break. Perhaps I should have waited for price to close below the support and lower channel line.

Robert




Ok so these trades you've shown used to drive me nuts...the support or resistance was in fact broken....but what I noticed was this....IF you enter the way you did in these trades, you should use a reasonably small stop.....because these are often head fakes just enough to take out stops, trap people in the wrong way and then head back the other way....

But the for me, the correct way is to wait for a close of the bar BELOW the support, and then look for a lower risk entry after that....

Some including me have an entry of the break of the bar that closes below the support....or a BOB trade....break of the bar....

Another way to do this is to wait for the close below support, wait for a pull back to the support and enter on a limit order at that price.....this seems to work pretty well.....

hope this helps a bit.....

Here's an example from Friday.


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Below is the first trade of the week. Lost 5 ticks on the trade. I did not let the trade develop as it should. Price is currently nearing my original profit target.

I am debating if I am going to continue to post nightly. I may do it once a week. My judgement was clouded tonight because I wanted my first trade "posted" to be a win. I need to remove this from the equation. Prior to this week I have not even thought about it.


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I have decided to end my journal. I want to thank everyone for their participation and feedback! It is greatly appreciated!!

I have learned some truths about trading over the past several months which makes this journal, for the lack of better term, irrelevant. I am ready to move on.. I will be starting a new journal in the near future.

See you on the other side!!

@Big Mike,

Can you please close this journal.

Thank you!
Robert

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