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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading


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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

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  #641 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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PandaWarrior View Post
I don't know the exact formula for determining where to enter but two things jump out at me from this chart.

1. The entry seems to be random....its not at the OR and its not at the confirmation bar high....it in the middle....

2. It seems logical to wait until the trend line was broken, wait for the retest of the levels....and then go long....

Again, I have no idea what the entry rules are so my observations might be in direct conflict with the rules.....but those two things did leap off the chart at me....

Otherwise, I love the simplicity of the charts, the idea of only taking one trade.....love it....

@PandaWarrior,

Brian,

As always, Thanks for the feedback! There is a method to my entries. I will walk through what I saw before taking the trade and then the explanation of the entry / exit.

First the daily chart; Price has yet to move out of the 5 day opening range. So until this changes I am trading the range.



60 minute chart.

As mentioned, price has been in a range. Pretty much when it gets to the upper half or the lower half of the VWAP price reverses and trends to the opposite side. With this knowledge I have a bias going into a trade.

I marked 1 through 4 on the chart. Below is the explanation of the trade. Note: I originally was going to hold this overnight but changed my mind. This is why the target is higher than it should be.
  1. Earlier in the day price reached the second band of the VWAP and bounced off the lower channel line. So on the opening of the night session my bias was toward the buy side.
    .
  2. With my bias being toward the buy side I waited for a reverse from the early sell off. My reasoning; if I was wrong and it continued lower then I have lost nothing. If I am correct and it reverses then I can catch the movement to the upside. The reason I did not wait for the trend line to be broke is because price already faked out to the down side and reversed hard to the upside. This reversal combined by my buy bias gave me the confidence price was going to go higher. I will admit though, I was watching screen closely for the trend line to be broken.
    .
  3. For the entry of my short term trades I use the IB upper/lower lines. I place my entry 1 tick above the IB upper 1 line to go long and 1 tick below the IB lower 1 line to go short.
    .
  4. My exit for short term trades is the IB upper/lower 3 line. I generally place the target 1 to 2 ticks below/above the upper/lower IB 3 line.



Clean Chart - zoomed




Thats it. Simple and straight forward. My edge is I always have a trade bias going into a trade. I always have a entry point and I always have a exit point.

What I am working toward is overnight trades and longer term trend trades. I had a couple overnight paper trades this week which were positive and one loser. It will probably take me a couple of months before I can start consistently taking those trades. Until then I am content with my short term trades.

Robert

Note: For those interested I have attached the IB Range bands which are used on the chart.

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  #642 (permalink)
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@Silver Dragon, a search seems to indicate that is an Elite indicator. I removed it since this is a non-Elite thread. Link to it instead.

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  #643 (permalink)
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just an observation

it looks like you're using the forex session template to trade aud/usd. that template starts at 5:00 pm and ends at 5:00 pm eastern time. but those times really don't mean that much since the forex market is available 24 hours a day.

now I'm not sure if an opening range, starting at 5:00 pm eastern time makes sense. wouldn't it make more sense to use the u.s. or australian open (or both) for the opening range? I think trading hours are considered from 8:00 am - 4:00 pm local time. of course you could also use the open from the stock market at 9:30 am for the u.s. open.

just a thought.

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  #644 (permalink)
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Tonight's trade was positive. See notes on chart. I think there is a chance for a reversal lower because price pierced the lower channel twice on Thursday.





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Silvester17 View Post
just an observation

it looks like you're using the forex session template to trade aud/usd. that template starts at 5:00 pm and ends at 5:00 pm eastern time. but those times really don't mean that much since the forex market is available 24 hours a day.

now I'm not sure if an opening range, starting at 5:00 pm eastern time makes sense. wouldn't it make more sense to use the u.s. or australian open (or both) for the opening range? I think trading hours are considered from 8:00 am - 4:00 pm local time. of course you could also use the open from the stock market at 9:30 am for the u.s. open.

just a thought.

@Silvester17

Thanks for the feedback! Sydney opens up at 7 pm EST. By taking the 5 pm open it allows me to capture the opening move the Sydney stock exchange. If I were to use the 7 pm open I would miss the major moves and it could delay me getting into a trade potentially by several hours. I currently do not have time to trade during RTH of the US; my window for trading is between 5 pm & 9 pm.

Robert

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Silver Dragon View Post
@Silvester17

Thanks for the feedback! Sydney opens up at 7 pm EST. By taking the 5 pm open it allows me to capture the opening move the Sydney stock exchange. If I were to use the 7 pm open I would miss the major moves and it could delay me getting into a trade potentially by several hours. I currently do not have time to trade during RTH of the US; my window for trading is between 5 pm & 9 pm.

Robert

I have to apologize. 5:00 pm eastern time is actually 8:00 am sidney time. I made a time conversion mistake. so the 5:00 pm opening range should work just fine.

really sorry for the interruption.

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Note to self:

One of my biggest faults in trading is over analyzing the trade. Remember: keep it simple and high level. Everything else is just noise.

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Silver Dragon View Post
Note to self:

One of my biggest faults in trading is over analyzing the trade. Remember: keep it simple and high level. Everything else is just noise.

Indeed!

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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Silver Dragon View Post
Note to self:

One of my biggest faults in trading is over analyzing the trade. Remember: keep it simple and high level. Everything else is just noise.

The only thing I did right tonight was exiting the trade because I knew I was wrong. I totally over analyzed the trade. My notes are short on the chart because had I written them out I would have not made the trade. Instead I made all sorts of assumptions in my head and convinced myself to take the trade.

What I didnt write down: What I saw when I first looked at the chart was the long uppers wicks and small bodies of the candles from today. This was sign of indecision. My initial thought was dont trade.. this was the right move.

This is one area where I need to have a process in place to stop myself from trading. If I cannot write down why I would or would not take the trade then I need to walk away and not trade at all.

Robert



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I had a chance to place a trade earlier in the day. This was a low risk trade (IMO). Price was rejected twice on the upper trend line. I took the short. I added the the position but I think I added too late. (I think). News came out and pushed prices lower, near the lower trend line. Decided to get out there because price was moved by volatility instead of normal price action.

I did not have a target in place for this trade. I honestly didnt think price would get there as quickly as it did.

On my list to learn: How to scale into a position.

Robert




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