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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading


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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

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  #601 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, MT4
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There is something called currency strength indicator that shows weaker and stronger currencies. Might be useful. I am not proponent of trading with no stop but with volatility emergency stop that is lets say twice more that a regular stop you would use manually.

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  #602 (permalink)
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xelaar View Post
There is something called currency strength indicator that shows weaker and stronger currencies. Might be useful. I am not proponent of trading with no stop but with volatility emergency stop that is lets say twice more that a regular stop you would use manually.

maybe some statistical analysis would be useful to find the most effective stop loss placement based on the last few months or something. Some back testing would be necessary. I assume time of day would be a key factor as well. Occasional scale outs would be useful I suppose but hard to back test as they would be discretionary decisions. Even with analysis on stop loss placement it would be best to find the closest deviation to a key price level to place the stop you know. I wish I could plug-in key levels into some formula and have it calculate the best stop loss based on previous finds as well as scale outs while price is still moving, kind of like when you make a alternate turn in your car as your gps reroutes.

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  #603 (permalink)
prague, czech republic
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Itchymoku View Post
maybe some statistical analysis would be useful to find the most effective stop loss placement based on the last few months or something. Some back testing would be necessary. I assume time of day would be a key factor as well. Occasional scale outs would be useful I suppose but hard to back test as they would be discretionary decisions. Even with analysis on stop loss placement it would be best to find the closest deviation to a key price level to place the stop you know. I wish I could plug-in key levels into some formula and have it calculate the best stop loss based on previous finds as well as scale outs while price is still moving, kind of like when you make a alternate turn in your car as your gps reroutes.

Statistical analysis is good, and always should be used once you have collected some stats. I have been trading forex live for several years, it's very notorious to running stops since it is the most manipulated market on a planet and being OTC all sorts of fixing and twisting is there from central banks to your brokers. I have found out that any placement of stops say 5 pips or 10 pips behind any level is just asking to get the stop collected. Unlike in futures, brokers provide the feed and execution, there is no exchange, so a large broker or prime broker sees all the stops or has a pretty good idea of their location given the inventory of their traders, so it is quite easy for them to run the price and hit the stops. My approach would be to use volatility stops related to average true range (or daily range on daily charts) and have it located behind levels. Levels work great in forex but much less precise than in commodities or equities, due to OTC market nature, inconsistent quote feed and variable spread and spread-based execution (unlike last price execution in exchange driven markets, where your stop or entry is not hit unless price has traded there, in forex there is no such a thing as last price, it only has bids and asks and each broker executes differently).

In my opinion the best strategy in forex is to trade between strong levels on daily charts, as most pairs range up to 90% of time, and in case of big move, trade break out pullback to level, effectively trading level again. As simple as that. Day trading forex is a losing proposition due to lack of volatility that you can trade (there are big move but almost exclusively on unexpected news and for very short duration of time, making it impossible to catch - like in euro it can range 40 pips for days and then make 200 pips in 5 minutes on some Draghi comment and come back to ranging again).

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  #604 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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I was in a seminar most of the last week so I did not have any time to monitor the market during the day. I missed out on a Euro and AUD play. I am not upset about missing the trades. There will be others. This weekend has been kind of crazy too. Just now sitting down to look at charts for next week.

The daily charts (so far) offer a couple setups a week which could yield 50 to 100 ticks each. This is what I am focusing on in this stage of the learning process. Using a 60 minute chart to gauge the entry position.

Below is my single trade last week for 9 ticks.

Robert



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  #605 (permalink)
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Had a overnight trade in GBPUSD. I made a ton of mistakes on this trade which I will detail later.

Ended +45 ticks.

I missed the entry on USDJPY.. waiting for the perfect entry. I am waiting for a pull back now.

I think, actually I know , I am over thinking my entries.. I have to trust my instincts and just go with.

Robert


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  #606 (permalink)
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Silver Dragon View Post
Had a overnight trade in GBPUSD. I made a ton of mistakes on this trade which I will detail later.

Ended +45 ticks.

I missed the entry on USDJPY.. waiting for the perfect entry. I am waiting for a pull back now.

I think, actually I know , I am over thinking my entries.. I have to trust my instincts and just go with.

Robert



Mistakes made:

I am using my brokers platform to place trades. Main reason is because on Ninja the orders are on the local machine and not the trading server. A disconnect will cause trades to be cancelled an then you have a naked position. Since the trades are overnight I really wanted to protect myself against disconnects and a trade gone bad. However, my brokers software is not the most intuitive. The stop on every order is set for a long. You have to manually move it above the entry for shorts.. well I forgot to move it and enter the trade and was immediately stopped out. I went ahead and reentered the trade with the correct settings.

Even though I had two entries I still rushed the trade entry because I did not want to miss the break. As soon as I entered the trade I saw a bullish signal and said to myself, if I were day trading I would go long here. Then I say the trend line and knew exactly where I it was going. Price hit the trend line and reversed. Perhaps I was being too perfect..

Finally I did not have a target set. This is my fault.. the software is difficult to set targets and stops and it was late and I did not feel like fooling with it after I messed up the first entry... so I entered the trade with just the stop. Should have taken the time to set the target because It would have been nice 100 tick gain overnight. By the time I was able to look at it again I had given back half of the potential profit. Looking at the strong morning move I decided to call it and closed the position so to not add insult to injury by losing all my profit.

Overall it was a good trade but it could have been a great trade.

Robert



Entry signal on Daily:

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  #607 (permalink)
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Entered a trade yesterday on AUDUSD. I was expecting a stronger move off the trend line but it did not happen. With the overall momentum being down and news report yesterday saying they expect AUD to be near 88 for 2014 I decided to take my profits here. My entry was about 20 ticks off the low and my exit was 10 ticks from the MFE.

I have been thinking about adding a runner. I guess I could have done it with this trade since I had two lots. Next time.

ended the trade +25 ticks x 2 lots.



Entry:


Exit:

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  #608 (permalink)
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Trade note from yesterday:

I missed the pop yesterday in AUDUSD by a couple of hours. Making a note of time of day. I should also note it could have easily gone the other way. I made the right trading decision based on how I was playing the trade. However in hindsight there was a optimal trade setup: - sell first position where I exited yesterday and leave a runner. Move the stop to BE plus a couple of ticks. Exit at resistance.

Robert


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  #609 (permalink)
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Late in posting last weeks results. Made 70 ticks for the week.

Thoughts on the week - I over managed my AUD position. I was trying to be too precise and overly cautious. I didn't take several other trades because the entries were not perfect. I played around with Ninja a little bit.. still not 100% on going back to trading with it.



This week:
I have not touched a chart this week. I have been too busy getting ready for the holidays and really busy at work. I have a feeling the way things are going my trading will be sporadic until next year.

Robert

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  #610 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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If I had any understanding when I first started trading, I would have traded forex. The scalability offers so many things that were just not possible in futures. Glad to see you trading it and keeping such good track of your progress and thoughts.

Being able to scale in and scale out to 1/100 of a full lot takes a lot of pressure off of trading, slows everything down considerably. Being able to pick the right "area" is so much easier than the "perfect entry". Have you played much with scaling?


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February 2, 2015


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