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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading
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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

  #591 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Futures Broker
Favorite Futures: AUD
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
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GBPUSD

GBPUSD is currently in a range / balance area. It bounced off a long term trend line a couple of weeks ago to form a double top. I am waiting for a signal to either take a short term trade within the range or take a long term trade if it breaks out of the range. There is always a possibility it will break to the upside.

Robert

Daily

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.

Last edited by Silver Dragon; November 3rd, 2013 at 11:38 PM. Reason: typo
 
  #592 (permalink)
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EURGBP

Possible trend continuation setup on EURGBP. This setup may be a week out but is on my radar. There is a possibility it will break down and never happen.

Robert

Edit: on the chart note it should say "higher low" not "lower high"

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.

Last edited by Silver Dragon; November 3rd, 2013 at 11:28 PM.
 
  #593 (permalink)
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Took a trade last night in AUDUSD on the potential breakout. It went right up to the trend line and reversed. I exited this morning + 9 ticks.

A Bear Flag has formed on the 60 minute chart. Waiting to see if it breaks down or continues back up to the outer trend line.

Robert

Edit: Hindsight; it would have been a better trade to place a target near the trend line and then get back into it if it broke out.

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
 
  #594 (permalink)
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Philadelphia
 
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Itchymoku's Avatar
 
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are you having as much luck with forex as you do with index futures or commodities? I've always heard a lot of bad things about forex and have never met a long term profitable forex trader but I have hope. The reason I ask is because I'd like to find something to trade during the evening as I know you've had to do with your job. I used to trade forex in the beginning with a micro account and maintained some consistency over the course of about 50 trades but I undertook a lot of risk as I mainly relied on doubling down or in other words increasing my position size similar to the martingale betting strategy. I know however that martingale always loses in the end.

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  #595 (permalink)
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Itchymoku View Post
are you having as much luck with forex as you do with index futures or commodities? I've always heard a lot of bad things about forex and have never met a long term profitable forex trader but I have hope. The reason I ask is because I'd like to find something to trade during the evening as I know you've had to do with your job. I used to trade forex in the beginning with a micro account and maintained some consistency over the course of about 50 trades but I undertook a lot of risk as I mainly relied on doubling down or in other words increasing my position size similar to the martingale betting strategy. I know however that martingale always loses in the end.

@Itchymoku

Right now I am doing good but its only been a month. However, I have made more in ticks the past month trading Forex than I have in the last 3 months day trading crude. (Up over 250 ticks) But anything can happen and I could lose it just as fast. Last time I traded Forex I didnt have a plan or discipline... my trades were all over the place. I would say I was more lucky than good. This time around I am better trader with a lot of experience under my belt. Looking for better results this time around.

As an observation; Long term Forex moves like intra day crude. It can trend well but can turn on a dime and erase your profits quickly. But.. like anything else if you can find a edge you can make it work.

If your looking for a good currency to day trade at night then I would suggest looking at AUDUSD. It moves from 7:30 till midnight. You can catch some good trends. I was seriously considering night trading it after I lost the ability to trade during the day. If your looking for swing trading then post some thoughts here. I am looking for some other traders to learn from and share ideas on Forex.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #596 (permalink)
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Called the Bear Flag correctly but did not get in on the trade. I was really waiting for it to break the trend line. Didnt even give me a chance to get in with the gap down. This complicates my entry because the question now is will it fill the gap?

Robert
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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
 
  #597 (permalink)
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Silver Dragon View Post
If your looking for a good currency to day trade at night then I would suggest looking at AUDUSD. It moves from 7:30 till midnight. You can catch some good trends. I was seriously considering night trading it after I lost the ability to trade during the day. If your looking for swing trading then post some thoughts here. I am looking for some other traders to learn from and share ideas on Forex.

Robert

I wish I had a more firm grasp on the forex fundamentals like I used to but I've all but forgotten the economics. I just use forex factory now. The only thing I'd have to offer is perhaps well known technical patterns. The problem is that I mainly rely on scalping heavy momentum when the market is trending but scalping forex is pretty difficult because of the spread and lack of speed. I could trade it like I swing trade stocks but there aren't enough options with primarily 8 currencies because when I swing trade I scan through nearly a hundred or two hundred stocks for a good pattern. I'm trying to find the middle ground and perhaps trade forex from an hourly perspective. I'm interested in experimenting with time based stop losses along with scaling in and out (something I don't have enough equity to do properly with futures). So this might be very refreshing after all and compensate for the aforementioned pitfalls above.

What I used to do with forex is get into a position and place my stop loss at my first target and then walk away for the day or go to sleep since I was risking very little. I'd call this type of trade a lottery ticket because anything could happen when I woke up the next morning . Sometimes I'd get stopped out and other times the market would move far in my direction. The problem is that If I checked in during the night once or twice I could retain a larger profit before the market reversed but hindsight is 20/20. This lottery type trade is thrilling and why I'm considering experimenting with time based stops again. I know trading isn't supposed to be thrilling but how can it not when you're limitless?

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  #598 (permalink)
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mizajoe View Post
very informative

whose post are you referring to?

 
  #599 (permalink)
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prague, czech republic
 
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Itchymoku View Post
I wish I had a more firm grasp on the forex fundamentals like I used to but I've all but forgotten the economics. I just use forex factory now. The only thing I'd have to offer is perhaps well known technical patterns. The problem is that I mainly rely on scalping heavy momentum when the market is trending but scalping forex is pretty difficult because of the spread and lack of speed. I could trade it like I swing trade stocks but there aren't enough options with primarily 8 currencies because when I swing trade I scan through nearly a hundred or two hundred stocks for a good pattern. I'm trying to find the middle ground and perhaps trade forex from an hourly perspective. I'm interested in experimenting with time based stop losses along with scaling in and out (something I don't have enough equity to do properly with futures). So this might be very refreshing after all and compensate for the aforementioned pitfalls above.

What I used to do with forex is get into a position and place my stop loss at my first target and then walk away for the day or go to sleep since I was risking very little. I'd call this type of trade a lottery ticket because anything could happen when I woke up the next morning . Sometimes I'd get stopped out and other times the market would move far in my direction. The problem is that If I checked in during the night once or twice I could retain a larger profit before the market reversed but hindsight is 20/20. This lottery type trade is thrilling and why I'm considering experimenting with time based stops again. I know trading isn't supposed to be thrilling but how can it not when you're limitless?

I am looking to contribute too as I am planning to to come back to Forex as well. Imo pure swing trading in forex is not much feasible any longer as there is pretty much to rates difference anymore and this is what driven currencies a lot. So you migh get 2-3 big trades a year like in AU UJ and EU. Not worth it Imo as you will get more losses trying to grt onto the train which is false starting msny times.

What works well in forex is levels. I am looking to trade ranges and large break outs from daily charts once a day using VSA setups to enter abd using emergency stop based on volatility (like 2 ADRs) and mabual stop based on actual candle close at end of day.

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #600 (permalink)
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yeah, I heard about a trader who primarily traded limits with no stop loss on gbp/chf and made out for a year until the inevitable happened. I was thinking It might be possible to use some directional discernment with this strategy and a disaster stop-loss but it'll take time to test. haha I feel lost with forex and the euro future drives me nuts because it's so slow.

I might look into testing forex relativity - an indicator that shows each currency relative to one another shown in the second panel of these charts. It might help me figure out which currency has the most momentum at any given time.

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Last edited by Itchymoku; November 7th, 2013 at 02:10 AM.

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