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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading


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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

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  #571 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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Forgot to show the trade entries. Entered right below support.


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  #572 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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Seriously... not five minutes after I call it day this happens.. lol


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  #573 (permalink)
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Weekly totals:

ZS:

CL:

Definitely got better as the week went on.

Robert

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  #574 (permalink)
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Thoughts on todays trades.

ZS - I made one big mistake today; I did not listen to my own analysis. I knew ZS would probably test Mondays low and there was a strong chance of a reverse. What did I do? I shorted the low. I should have loaded up on longs. I could have stayed in the position all day long. Obviously easier said than done but still.. Being in on the low of the day how many chances like that do you get? I did have wits to reverse my direction and catch the move up however my entry was poor and my runner ended up getting stopped out.

I had a chance for a second entry today however I was not quick enough on the trigger. I saw selling absorption on support and was getting ready to put a stop entry order in when it took off. I had an idea where it was going so there was too much risk to enter late.

CL - As with ZS I had one big mistake today. The first trade of the day I shorted and it started to go down and was stopped by buying. The market gave me 3 chances to get out at BE but instead I held on to hope.Learning to get out when price fails to move in your direction is hard lesson to learn. As with ZS I realized my mistake and reversed my position and made up for the loss. I closed the position out early because I saw buying absorption.

I had the right idea but did not take the trade on the last setup of the day. looking back on it I saw the buying absorption at the high of the day but did not have the foresight to short it. Once it started down I saw more selling finally culminating into the big break. I had a sell stop below support but took it out because of the congestion. I felt the risk of reverse was there. My original entry spot may have been stopped out. May have missed out a great trade however, whats important is I saw the direction of the market. The order flow told the story.

Other thoughts:

There were at least 3 trades today I passed on in CL. This had to do with what I was seeing with order flow and the quality of the entry. In a way watching order flow causes you to choose your entries carefully. What I mean by this is order flow is confirmation of direction so you want to take trades around support / resistance and trend break areas. When you start seeing traders piling on or the buying / selling absorption and the Bid or Ask starting to build the quality of the trade increases. The better quality the trade the less heat is taken after entry. Price will go in direction of where the most orders are; so when the bid / ask ratio is around 60/40 and it is near the before mentioned trade areas then it is a matter of picking a entry point and waiting for it to happen. Its getting easier to see the trades however, I still need to the experience to know when to hold the trades and when to get out.

Robert

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  #575 (permalink)
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Another person in OH trading Soybeans! It's a small world!


Good trading and see ya in the ZS pits.

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  #576 (permalink)
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@Big Mike

I know you were originally a day trader and moved out to longer term trading. Any advice on where to start transitioning? Is there a progression in development? Any advice on what not to do? Any recommended books?


I am at a stage where I may have to stop day trading for a while.. possibly a long while. Reviewing my options. Bummed about the whole thing because I was really making progress.. but what can you do.. Life keeps handing me lemons.. doing my best to keep making lemonade ..

Thanks in advance!
Robert

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  #577 (permalink)
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Silver Dragon View Post
@Big Mike

I know you were originally a day trader and moved out to longer term trading. Any advice on where to start transitioning? Is there a progression in development? Any advice on what not to do? Any recommended books?


I am at a stage where I may have to stop day trading for a while.. possibly a long while. Reviewing my options. Bummed about the whole thing because I was really making progress.. but what can you do.. Life keeps handing me lemons.. doing my best to keep making lemonade ..

Thanks in advance!
Robert

Are you talking about discretionary or automation?

Yes I started as a swing trader around 18 years ago with some day trading. Around 7 years ago or so I started day trading futures (mostly scalping), and over the years have stopped scalping entirely but do still day trade futures, but often I hold for a couple days as well. You can see some of my trades in the main ES thread.

Half of my trades are futures, the other half equities. I swing equities, and I generally day trade futures (but like I said, do hold for a few days now and then). I typically go for 10 points per trade on the ES, and I typically go for 10-20% move on a stock depending on its volatility, over a few weeks.

I would say to watch the "Where to start" webinar, it has info on sizing, risk, instrument selection, time frames, etc. Generally I feel most people make a mistake with smaller time frames, smaller stops, smaller targets, in an effort to reduce risk and boredom. What they should be doing in my opinion is trade bigger time frames, bigger stops and targets, with the same risk (smaller size) as a scalper (or so). It is far easier in my experience.

You can find a thread on scalping vs longer term trading here:


Everyone has their own way. What's important is to find one that speaks to you and makes sense to you. Scalping does not make sense to me, so I don't do it. It could be swing trading won't make sense to you.

While a change of time frame may help tremendously, be sure you know why you are failing today so you can list it as a known weakness, and try to avoid or overcome it with your new plan.

Mike

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  #578 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Are you talking about discretionary or automation?

Yes I started as a swing trader around 18 years ago with some day trading. Around 7 years ago or so I started day trading futures (mostly scalping), and over the years have stopped scalping entirely but do still day trade futures, but often I hold for a couple days as well. You can see some of my trades in the main ES thread.

Half of my trades are futures, the other half equities. I swing equities, and I generally day trade futures (but like I said, do hold for a few days now and then). I typically go for 10 points per trade on the ES, and I typically go for 10-20% move on a stock depending on its volatility, over a few weeks.

I would say to watch the "Where to start" webinar, it has info on sizing, risk, instrument selection, time frames, etc. Generally I feel most people make a mistake with smaller time frames, smaller stops, smaller targets, in an effort to reduce risk and boredom. What they should be doing in my opinion is trade bigger time frames, bigger stops and targets, with the same risk (smaller size) as a scalper (or so). It is far easier in my experience.

You can find a thread on scalping vs longer term trading here:


Everyone has their own way. What's important is to find one that speaks to you and makes sense to you. Scalping does not make sense to me, so I don't do it. It could be swing trading won't make sense to you.

While a change of time frame may help tremendously, be sure you know why you are failing today so you can list it as a known weakness, and try to avoid or overcome it with your new plan.

Mike

@Big Mike

Thanks Mike! That is what I was looking for. Hardest part when starting something new is not knowing if your even in the ballpark with your approach. Just for Clarification - day trading definition for me is less than hour hold time. Obviously if I cannot be at my computer then I to set a strategy up to hold for days.

The plan on paper is to take the skills and experience I have acquired from TST and apply it to some type of swing trading. So I am looking at discretionary at this point. I have been building a Forex Portfolio automated day trading strategy for some time now. I was going to start testing it in a couple of months. Since I dont think it will happen now I may attempt to adapt it to a longer term trading scheme.

Concerning automation- I recently created a semi automated robot for CL in Sierra Charts. I started testing it in my SIM account a couple weeks ago. The purpose of the robot was to help me get into trades. From there I would manage trades based on what I have been learning about volume profile, order flow etc. This was my answer for me hesitating on taking trades and then taking bad trades to make up for the missed trade. (this is where I fail). The plan was to test it a another month or two and then then take it live in a combine. Holding out hope it still may happen.

<vent session>
What really stinks about all of this is I was finally starting to get it. I understand at a deeper level how the market functions. Order flow and volume profile.. its all there for the taking.. Things were starting to click.....<sigh>...but.. I digress... Going to stay positive... If not today then another day.. Keep Moving Forward..

As always, thanks for the feedback!

Robert

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  #579 (permalink)
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I would focus on discretionary first. Once you are consistently profitable, then you can look to automation. Not until. That is my advice.

Spot forex is fine, but I personally like to swing equities because I have a lot more options and part of my edge is to look for certain setups so I look at a large number of equities to find them.

Mike

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  #580 (permalink)
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Silver Dragon View Post
What really stinks about all of this is I was finally starting to get it. I understand at a deeper level how the market functions. Order flow and volume profile.. its all there for the taking.. Things were starting to click.....<sigh>...but.. I digress... Going to stay positive... If not today then another day.. Keep Moving Forward..

Nothing that you have learned is going to go to waste, it is just going to be transitioning. Having a deeper understanding of the market will certainly help you manage higher time frames as well.

I have said this in other threads (maybe even the one Mike posted...lol). I thought the last time frame I would ever trade would be swing. When my system creation put me in that direction, I did enough research to get me over the overnight "risk" hurdle and I've been pleased ever since. That risk hurdle can be overcome with little more than proper position sizing based on your risk tolerances. The weirdest thing for me was realizing that I didn't have to be glued to my screen while my trades were out there. Instead of grinding day in and day out for your points/pips etc., you get bigger changes less frequently and the market grinds for you, hopefully in the direction of your trade

Given what you have said about things coming together for you, I think the timeframe change could be more natural than you realize. You are going to be able to interpolate and understand what is going on below your timeframe, use some of your tools at the new timeframe, thus being armed with more information to make better trades. vs

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