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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading
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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

  #561 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Futures Broker
Favorite Futures: AUD
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
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Having confidence issues with holding the trades. Two trades I cut too short which went on to hit my targets. Taking a break

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #562 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received

Did not have time this weekend to create analysis for Friday. In summary I got my but kicked in CL and did very well in ZS. I have decided to go back to my practice account on CL and rethink my strategy. I am clearly not ready to trade it at this point.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #563 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader
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Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
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ZS Morning analysis

Today will be a learning day in ZS. Price is at the lower end of last Fridays range and has moved below the major gap fill which happened last week. I have not traded this situation before with my new strategy so I dont know what I dont know. My gut says it will go lower. Will see what happens.

Robert

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
 
  #564 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader
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See notes in charts.

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
 
  #565 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader
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Silver Dragon View Post
See notes in charts.

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Attached is a short video of my trades today. Summary - First trade was valid. Second trade was not.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Attached Files
Soybeans -9-23-13 Final.flv (26.53 MB, 130 views)
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  #566 (permalink)
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Morning Analysis ZS

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nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
 
  #567 (permalink)
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Quote of the day:

Quoting 
"Forget your losers fast and your winners faster"


nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #568 (permalink)
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No trading today and possibly for the rest of the week.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
 
  #569 (permalink)
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I have taken a few days off to regroup and focus on learning order flow. Spent part of the weekend in market replay watching what happens to soybeans and crude during breakouts / reversals etc. Its fascinating to watch how the market reacts to levels and see the orders go in and out of the market. With what I learned over the past week; I am now able to see market momentum shifts. I would like to do a video log of what I am learning about order flow.

I played around with Jigsaw trading tools using Ninja. I wish they had these tools for Sierra. I have been thinking about getting a dedicated data feed so I can use the tools in conjunction with Sierra however, the 125/a month data feed price tag is holding me back. I dont understand enough of what i am looking at to justify the price (yet). I configured my time and sales along with market depth to show similar data within Sierra but it really lacks the depth that Jigsaw has.

Traded my practice account today. Made 50 ticks in CL today and Lost 10 ticks in ZS.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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  #570 (permalink)
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Cincinnati Ohio
 
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Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,597 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 3,860 given, 3,318 received


Letting it all go....

As I have mentioned in previous posts over the past year I have been having issues with trading within the combine. Its really a pshycological issue. This past week I have been thinking about going back to my own account. It sounds appealing for many reasons. I know I am not ready to trade my own account but when the time comes I know it will be waiting... and that is very appealing. However, I dont want to give up TST. It is best thing I could have ever done for my trading but, the pressure I have been putting on myself to pass the combine has caused me to make really poor trading decisions. I have known this for a long time but could not figure out how to get over it. Then I had a ah-ha moment where I decided to use the combine as a tool / teacher. Pretty sure @Big Mike has mentioned this a few times. The days following this decision I have been hesitating less and thinking more about the outcome of the trade instead of the balance of my combine. Dont get me wrong I still want to pass the combine but it will now happen when it will happen. No pressure

Order flow
This past week I have exclusively traded order flow and I couldn't be happier. I am learning more each day. it is becoming easier to recognize buy/sell absorption and to pick out the head fakes and see the building of volume before the move. The recognition of head fakes alone has kept me out of so many bad trades. Its also teaching me patience. Order flow (IMO) is the ultimate day trading indicator

Words of Wisdom...
Every once in a while there is a post or posts you would like to give a super thanks too ..something like a 100 thanks just to show the post had impact. Well @tigertrader has been putting on a trading clinic over on the ES Spoo-nalysis board. He has said more in a few posts than most trading books say in 300 pages. There were several posts which had a huge impact but this one in particular was outstanding. So here is my SUPER Thank You!!!


tigertrader View Post
Somehow, I knew that question would be asked, and that it would be asked by you, @josh. Not quite unlike an "obvious opportunity".

Most traders think that price action analysis is the visual examination of charts for price patterns and indicators. All it serves to facilitate is the projection of cognitive biases on price action; it isolates single data points that support the subjective views of the technical analyst about market direction. In most cases, the decision as to whether the chart is bullish or bearish isn't even related to the state of indicators or any chart patterns but to the cognitive bias of the analyst. This is the prediction or forecasting game. Truth is that traditional chart analysis does not carry any forecasting power, but can be instrumental as a risk management tool. Not only does Mr. Market not care about TA, but it will often use it against the trader to trap him.

That being said, an "obvious opportunity" is a trade that is well defined, reproducible, and has a proven edge. You've seen it before and you know it works, and you don't even have to think about putting the trade on -you just react. They're not as rare as one would believe, but then again I watch multiple markets and their correlations, so the opportunities are multiplied.

Link to post: https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13452-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-541.html#post358005

Taking time off.
I have been taking more days off as of late including spending less time in front of the screen. Spending time getting other stuff done that I have neglected. I believe the less screen time has actually improved my trading. When I come back to the chart after having a day off I am looking at a fresh screen with a fresh perspective. This has resulted in better trades. Walking away has always been a tough for me. I really enjoy watching the markets .. almost to a fault. But there are other more important things in life to do; Family, friends.. quiet time with no charts and a good book to read.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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