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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading


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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

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  #511 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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Yen Night Trade

Here is my trade for tonight with explanation. I am moving toward Volume Profile trades. Basically trade the extremes and fade back toward the value area of the chart. If I am lucky I will get a trade which will go from one extreme to another.

Robert





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  #512 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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CL 1st trade

+43 ticks.

See notes on chart.

Robert




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  #513 (permalink)
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In my effort to better understand volume profile I am going to be posting observations and thoughts as I come across them.

Reference;

https://futures.io/wiki/trading-wiki/Volume-Profile

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  #514 (permalink)
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On the reversal of the first leg down price went the entire length of the volume profile before reversing. This third leg down stopped at the CLVN on todays chart which also matched with the CLVN of yesterdays chart. As of this writing the 4th leg up stopped at todays high and was reversing.

Very cool stuff.


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High and low for 2013 match point of control for 2011 and 2012


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CL
1st trade

+23 ticks

Entry type: trend line break at the bottom of the volume profile.

Robert


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CL

2nd and 3rd trade.

I was totally thinking like I used to the second trade and as a result I was stopped out. In order to play the extremes of the volume profile, you have to get in near the top so your stop is at or above the high/low. Instead I waited for a break. and got in about 8 ticks to low. The third was how it should be done. My stop was 15 ticks and was at the high of the day. For some reason I exited the 3rd trade early.. dont know why..

This will probably be it for me today. Ended the day with 22 ticks. +1300 on the day

Robert


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Gary View Post
Robert,

A-Ha!

So, we can take this over to your thread if you like after this, but how are you choosing targets now? Fixed or based on ? I am guessing you already detail this in your thread, maybe you can just point me to your post describing your A+ setup and basic rules on what you look for before, during, and after your A+ trade?

If you feel like you are reading price well, and have no problem entering a trade, then focus on how to improve your exit, but you have to be more precise, than "Make more ticks on exit", you have to really get specific on how you plan to exit more efficiently than you do today. Maybe this is done with more than one contract, maybe this is done with a specific idea/view on how to best trail, etc. Once you have identified that, then your new plan will be to only exit based on your new idea/rules, and then grade yourself after a day/week, etc. How did you do? This is all my $.02 of course, everyone has their own way/ideas.

Gary

@Gary

So when you asked the question what is my A+ setup I didnt have a answer. Honestly it was a tough question. I had lots of setups but I didnt think any of them were A+. Actually when I started thinking about it I realized I didnt even have an idea what an A+ setup looked like. So in order to find a A+ setup I thought it best to list out my criteria. See below.

My A+ Criteria
  • The most I want to risk is 15 to 20 ticks
  • I want to be able to know when I am wrong about trade.
  • I want entries to be easily identifiable.
  • Stops should be logical and easy to define
  • Targets should be easy to identify.
  • Targets are not static.
  • Targets should be larger than my stop. Preferably 2:1 or better.
  • Low stress trade... in other words, easy to execute because I have confidence it will work over time.

I started breaking down my setups and trying to figure out what was the best but all of them were pretty bad. I decided to throw out and started thinking outside my comfort zone. I worked with a trading buddy on a couple of setups and went through various other setups here on futures.io (formerly BMT) and elsewhere and finally found one which met the criteria I was looking for:

My A+ setup.

Using volume profile I find entries where price is near the top or bottom of the volume profile. I look for a trend line break or double top, etc to identify the entry and fade price back into the value area of the chart. I use low volume nodes to identify potential exit areas and place my target 5 to 10 ticks away from the LVN. See chart below and previous posts from this week for visual explanation.

Advantages of this setup:
  • I am using the theory that price moves back to value to my advantage.
  • This strategy can be used on nearly every market
  • Because of the potential size of the moves I will be able to incorporate pyramiding into the trade and be able to increase profits.
  • It meets the criteria above.
  • I don't have a problem pulling the trigger on a trade.

Very simple, very repeatable, low stress and it takes care of my problem areas and allows me to just trade.

The next steps; execute the setup, continue to learn more about VP and be mindful of how I am managing the trades in order to maximize my profits.



Robert


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CL
Trades for 7-1-13

4 trades - BE for the day

Focus today was to take trades and hold them. Taking the trades - Passed. Hold the trades - Failed. Last trade is the one I should have held. It went another 50 ticks after I exited the trade. I took the exit because it was near a low volume node and I thought it might reverse. This was a valid exit but this was not my original target. I should have moved my stop to BE or slightly above and let the trade play out.

Need to review my stops and entries and possibly make an adjustment. Second time in a week I have been stopped out by a tick only to have it reverse and go my direction.

Robert


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CL

See notes on chart - will add commentary later

Edit:
Past lessons learned - I got burned once leaving a trade unattended so I dont do it anymore. Thus I cut this trade short since I was going to be out of the office. Its hard to tell from screenshot but there were 5 bars in the in the low volume area of the chart. It produced hardly any volume.. When volume dries up like this it indicates a bottom/top. . My original target was 50 ticks. It ended up going 68. This was a good trade and one I wish I could have been in till the end.


Robert


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