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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading


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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

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  #401 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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3rd trade of the day

Entry type: Sell stop below the low of the day and double bottom

I tried to go for a longer trade and picked the wrong time to do it. The run up was 19 ticks which would have hit my normal 15 tick target. I had a target of 30 ticks. Priced reversed and started back up. I was lucky to get out with a small win. Taking a break to calm down and think this over. +2 ticks

Robert



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 Silver Dragon 
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Silver Dragon View Post
3rd trade of the day

Entry type: Sell stop below the low of the day and double bottom

I tried to go for a longer trade and picked the wrong time to do it. The run up was 19 ticks which would have hit my normal 15 tick target. I had a target of 30 ticks. Priced reversed and started back up. I was lucky to get out with a small win. Taking a break to calm down and think this over. +2 ticks

Robert



3rd trade Post trade analysis.

Price hit support on the hourly chart which is why it reversed. When going for larger targets I need to take a look at the longer term charts to make sure there is nothing standing in the way of the target.

Robert


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 Silver Dragon 
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Went to lunch with my biggest supporter and best friend; my wife. Talked through what happened this morning with my trading. Two things came out of it:
  • I deviated from my plan without having a equally good plan to take its place. (style drift) To expand on this. I have a plan for my targets which is 15 to 20 ticks. I know what to look for and how to react in certain situations. I know how to move my stops. What I dont have is the same experience for longer term trades. In this case I totally missed the support level on the hourly chart. Chalking this up as a learning experience.
    .
  • I was thinking about money. This is the near the top of the of list of things you never do while trading. I am nearing a psychological barrier of +$1000 in my combine. I was thinking last night about great it would be to have a big today and get over this level. This morning I was thinking I have to make two trades to get past this level; I was doing the math in my head. I think this is why I was nervous on the second trade. The irony of this is if I had just traded my plan I would have breached that level today.



Robert

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 Silver Dragon 
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4th trade of the day.

Was trying to setup a potential trade and I clicked on the wrong button and entered a live trade. Managed to get out @ BE. Going to call it day before I do any more damage.

Robert

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 Silver Dragon 
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Final Stats for the day.

The previous two posts pretty much sum up today. I am taking it as a good day because it was a positive day however I need to regroup and get back to what got me to this point tomorrow. Ended the day +12

Robert


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 Silver Dragon 
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Combine update- Day 7


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 xelaar 
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Silver Dragon View Post
Combine update- Day 7


Very nice, you are well on your way to the target.

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  #408 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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Morning charts for 5-1-13

Charts speak for themselves this morning: Weekly is below last weeks high-Hourly and 15 minute are in a downward channels. Bias is down. ADP report was bad but the market did not react. Will see what happens on the open.





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 Daytrader999 
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Hi Robert,

Just be careful today since Crude Oil Inventory numbers are coming out in 2 hours...

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  #410 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
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1st trade of the day

Entry Type: Sell Stop below low of the day - Open

Solid entry- Took 2 ticks of heat. This was a good trade to get back on track today. Plan the trade and trade the plan.

Robert



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 Silver Dragon 
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2nd trade of the day

Entry type: sell stop below support and low of the day

After missing a couple of trades earlier I was hoping for a quick 10 tick gain. However it didn't work out. Came within 1 tick of hitting my target and pulled back. There has been a struggle between the bulls and the bears since the EIA report this morning so I pulled out my trade before the start of the next bar. I have noticed big moves can occur withing the first 10 to 30 seconds of a new bar. Would rather be flat than risk being down 10. Ended +1

Edit: Just took a look at the chart and the next bar went down hit my target and reversed. Those are the breaks.


Robert



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 Silver Dragon 
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3rd trade of the day.

Entry type: Buy Stop above previous bar high. Previous bar was LOD

Took a 5 tick scalp off this trade. Solid entry - 3 ticks of heat. Originally had 10 tick target but I moved it. This was not a good decision. Need to trust my targets! Last trade influenced this one.

This will probably be my final trade of the day unless something really good comes along. Currently up 21 ticks on the day.

Robert



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 Silver Dragon 
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Final Stats for 5-1-13

I had a good day today. Came within 5 dollars of hitting my daily goal. All of my entries were solid. The most heat I took was 3 ticks. My biggest mistake today was moving my target on the third trade. I had several trades I passed on today which were similar to my third trade . I am looking to add this as a permanent entry type.

Robert



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 Silver Dragon 
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Below are the tags and entry types for my current combines. Open is where I make most of my money. It is nearly half my total in the combine. I was surprised by two and three.

Note: There were a lot of trades which had two or more tags so they are counted more than once on the report.

Robert


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 ZarethKnyght 
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You sir, are now my idol. I'm planning to do something similar to how you started with after learning more. For now, setting up a stable foundation though. Can't wait to catch up on everything you've done up till now.

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 Silver Dragon 
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ZarethKnyght View Post
You sir, are now my idol. I'm planning to do something similar to how you started with after learning more. For now, setting up a stable foundation though. Can't wait to catch up on everything you've done up till now.

@ZarethKnyght

Many thanks!! But I am just a humble student of the market trying to figure it all out. Also, there are tons of excellent journals and threads here on futures.io (formerly BMT) along with many traders more capable than myself. Be sure to poke around in the other journals and threads. There is invaluable information contained within.

Good Luck on your journey!

Robert

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 Silver Dragon 
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5-2-13

No trading today.

Robert

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 xelaar 
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Silver Dragon View Post
Below are the tags and entry types for my current combines. Open is where I make most of my money. It is nearly half my total in the combine. I was surprised by two and three.

Note: There were a lot of trades which had two or more tags so they are counted more than once on the report.

Robert


Great stuff. What is an open trade?

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 Silver Dragon 
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xelaar View Post
Great stuff. What is an open trade?


@xelaar

Open is actually a tag opposed to type of trade. Signifies I took the trade on the open of trading. See trade detail below. In this trade I placed the sell stop below low of the day and at the open of trading for CL.

Robert


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 Silver Dragon 
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Weekly Stats 4/28/13 - 5/3/13

Last night my trading computer went down. Did not trade today and will not be trading tomorrow. I need to make sure everything is calibrated correctly and so I will start on Monday.

I don't have a screenshot of the weeks totals by itself but I do have a screenshot of the total since the start of the combine. See below.

Total profit made this week: $490. / $1080 since the start of the combine.

Robert




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iankotze
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It is looking good man, keep it up!

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 Silver Dragon 
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On a new trading server in Chicago. Getting everything setup for next week. I enjoy setting up new computers. This one feels faster from the standpoint of responsiveness through Remote Desktop. I will know for sure on Monday.

From a upload / download perspective it is way faster than the last one I was on. Speed test is below.


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 Silver Dragon 
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Weekly Chart - Sunday Night 5-5-13

Heading toward a triple top. Above that there is a resistance zone up to 102. Then finally a upper trend line between 103 and 104. Should be a interesting week.


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 Silver Dragon 
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Morning Charts 5-6-13

Last night CL touched the trend line and reversed. The hourly and 15 minute charts are in a well defined downtrend with a accelerated drop off over the last couple of hours. The hourly broke through the first trend line overnight and is nearing the second trend line. If it breaks the secondary trend line then there is support around the 9350 to 9420 area. Really in no mans land at the moment. I am not sure how I am going to play the open.





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 Silver Dragon 
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Slow morning.. Sitting on a couple of setups.. Just waiting.


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 Silver Dragon 
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1st trade of the day

Entry type Buy stop above resistance.

Price move about 10 ticks above my entry then pulled back. Waited a couple minutes for it to move and nothing happened so I closed it out for a 3 tick loss.

Robert



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 Silver Dragon 
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Silver Dragon View Post
1st trade of the day

Entry type Buy stop above resistance.

Price move about 10 ticks above my entry then pulled back. Waited a couple minutes for it to move and nothing happened so I closed it out for a 3 tick loss.

Robert



Looking at this trade again I realized my entry was poorly placed. It really should have been about 8 ticks lower. I took what I thought was a "safer" entry point.

Robert

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 Silver Dragon 
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2nd trade of the day.

Stop entry type: Buy Stop above previous high

Note: Late posting trade details.

Did not have my stop far enough away from the current price. The trade direction idea was right but I rushed the trade. This was a mental mistake. The idea was to have the stop about 5 ticks higher than the previous close. Once in the trade it pulled back. Had I left my stop where it was originally at I would have been down 10 ticks. The positive side of this trade is I realized I was wrong and exited the trade before my full stop was hit. -6 ticks


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 Silver Dragon 
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3rd trade of the day

Entry Type: Sell Stop below support and previous trend line.

Note: Late posting results.

This was my first solid trade of the day. Took 2 ticks of heat. Ended up moving my target up. I was nervous while in the trade. Ended +5 ticks.

Robert



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 xelaar 
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Keep up good work, it was a hard day for trading.

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 Silver Dragon 
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Final Stats for the 5/6/13

Ended the day -5 ticks -$65 net. I will start over tomorrow with a clean slate.

Robert



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 Silver Dragon 
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Combine update:

Today was my first day trading since last Wednesday. Having 4 days to think about my combine was probably not a good thing. Went through a lot of scenarios over the weekend about how my combine would end. It was a very long weekend. Then with the market being slow today on the open it prolonged my weekend anxiety. I had to wait 2 hours for my first trade. Felt like 5! I thought it would never get here! I felt better after it was completed and I am feeling better tonight. Looking to get back in the groove tomorrow. Did my Insanity workout tonight and went through my trades from today. I have a clear mind for tomorrow.

I also noticed I am feeling a bit of stress to perform well to meet the combine goals objective Could be from to much thinking over the weekend. At this point its not enough to worry about but it is enough that I am aware that is there. With that said I may drop off the grid if I determine it is my best interest for completing the combine. If do go rouge I will post my thoughts in my personal journal then repost them here when the combine is done.


Robert

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 Silver Dragon 
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Morning Charts for 5-7-13

Weekly has not changed much. Currently in a flag pattern on the hourly chart. The overnight was uneventful with a lot of back and forth. I will be watching for a breakout out of the hourly triangle this morning.

Robert




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 Silver Dragon 
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Results from 5/7/13

Had issues with my screen capture today plus I was extremely busy tonight so I dont have time to mark up a chart. So- here is a quick summary of what happened today:

I lost control today made some very stupid trades. I didnt follow my rules on trades 1, 2 & 4. I am lucky I ended the day only down 3 ticks. The first two trades should have never happened. The 3rd trade should have been my trade of the day. Because I was in a hole I was overly cautious and missed my several entries. That's when I committed the sin of taking a market order trade after I missed my entry. This is unforgivable. Spent the day digging myself out of self made hole. From the standpoint of following my rules, this was a disastrous trading day. The only thing that saved me was the trades where I did follow my rules.

2 winners 3 losers -3 ticks for the day. -$55 Net



Trade notes from my personal journal:


Quoting 
Trade #1

Entry type: Buy stop above resistance.

I did not follow my plan this morning - I traded before open. This was a entry fit my criteria for a buy. I also held on longer to this trade than previous trades. I had several chances to get out @ BE or close to it.

Trade #2

Entry type: Sell stop below low of previous bar

Style Drift- Committed the ultimate sin. This loosely met the my setup rules. I tried to force a trade. Even worse I rushed the trade. This was just a stupid trade. What was I thinking.. Taking a break..



3rd trade of the day

This should have been my first and only trade of the day. A breakout to the upside for 20 ticks. Instead of being up 20 ticks I am at break even.


4th trade today

Entry type: impulse trade - Market order

Missed my entry and used a market order to get in. Really?? I cant even believe I did this. Whats even worse I held onto the trade.

5th trade.

Entry type: Sell below support

Solid trade. 2 ticks of heat. Got back to near even. Calling it day.


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 Silver Dragon 
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Morning Charts 5-8-13

CL is sitting in a giant range. Added the daily chart to show the lack of movement over the past few days. Looking for a breakout out the range. Above 9526 is a buy and below 9485 is a sell. Will trade support and resistance breaks within the range for smaller gains.

My trading goals today: Trade my plan.Stay away from dogging myself into a hole. Wait for the trades to come to me. Have patience and have discipline.






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1st trade of the day

Entry type: Buy Stop above resistance.

Followed my rules on this trade. Price just didnt have any follow through. -10 ticks

Robert



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 Silver Dragon 
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2nd Trade of the day

Entry type: Buy Stop above resistance.

Setup my buy stop above the resistance and waited patiently for it to be hit. Took 2 ticks of heat. +15 ticks.

Robert



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3rd trade of the day.

Entry type: Sell stop below

Late posting. Entry met my rules for entry. Price went down a couple of ticks and reversed quickly. -10 ticks




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4th trade of the day.

Entry type: Buy Stop above resistance.

Late post: I waited a couple of hours for this trade to develop and my entry was perfect but I panicked on the pull back. I closed at +1 tick. Then it reversed and went on to hit my original target. This is a definite problem for me. I have to quit managing my trades by the flatten button.



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Final Stats:

I followed all my rules today. So from that stand point it was a good day. No regrets other than not letting the final trade play out.



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1st trade of the day

Entry type: Buy Stop above resistance.

Followed my rules on this trade. Price just didnt have any follow through. -10 ticks

Robert

Reviewed my first trade from today. I actually missed a upper trend line. Technically the trade was still valid however I may have not taken the trade because the stop entry was to far above the resistance line and the trend line changed the dynamic of the trade.

Robert


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 syxforex 
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Fantastic results. It's amazing how those little winners add up. Best of Luck to the finish line!

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Morning Charts 5/9/13

CL is pretty much stuck. Moved back down into the middle of the weekly range overnight. If we go below 9560 then CL may start trending lower. Right now the bias is down based on the overnight action. The plan for the open is to watch and see if something presents itself.


Goals for the day

My goals for today:Trade my plan. Dont force trades. Wait for the trade to come to me. Do not use the flatten button. Instead manage the trade through my targets and stops. Have patience and let the trade play out.

Robert






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1st trade of the day

Entry type: Buy stop above previous bar high.

Tough trade to start the day. I thought it might breakout above the trend line but as of right now it didnt make it. Original target was 10 ticks. Came within 2 ticks and pulled back. Move target to 5 ticks and was hit on second push up. +5 ticks on trade.

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I have 2 setups I am looking at. One is above the trend line and the other is below the low of the day. Sitting on my hands watching and waiting.

Robert

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2nd trade of the day

Entry Type: Sell Stop below Low of day

This trade was mentioned in the previous post. Waited since the open for this trade to develop. Solid trade. Original target was 20 ticks. Moved it back to 16 on the first pullback. +16 ticks.

Robert



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Final Stats:

+21 ticks today. Recovered my losses over the past 3 days. I followed my plan and let the trades come to me. I am starting to see the more profitable trades on the chart. I passed up valid trades because they were in traffic. Instead I am starting to look for trades which had room to move. Less chance of reversal. Worst thing that happened today is I talked myself out of trade this afternoon which would have added 10 more ticks to my daily total.

Robert



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 xelaar 
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Very good job! Keep it steady!

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iankotze
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Nice going Dragon, You have progressed really fast and I am very impressed with your trading. Well done man. Looking forward to working with you and Xelaar in the live trading room one of these days. You guys are fantastic!

As Xelaar said above, just keep it steady, slow and steady, less is more. Make it happen.

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Morning Charts 5/10/13

CL finally broke through all the support which has been holding it up all week. On the daily chart it broke below support . On the hourly chart it broke through a cluster of bars which has been support over the last couple of days. (see green box) On the 15 minute chart it was in a downward channel overnight and it broke out of it this morning. Could be a volatile session on the open. With these big bars it makes it more difficult to find a good entry spot. I will be waiting to see what develops.

Opec news:


Quoting 
OPEC keeps 2013 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 800,000 bpd and sees downside risks for the rest of the year

Says:
- Raises 2013 demand forecast for its own crude at 29.84mln bpd, up 90,000 bpd from previous forecast.
- H2 2013 will see much higher global oil use and expects demand for its crude to average 30.47mln bpd in H2 2013, up from 29.14mln bpd in Q2.
- OPEC secondary sources estimate groupís output rose in April by 280,000 bpd to 30.46mln bpd by Saudi Arabia, Iraq.






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Goals for the day

My goals for today:Trade my plan. Dont force trades. Wait for the trade to come to me. Manage the trade through my targets and stops. Have patience and let the trade play out. Don't let fear or indecision keep me from taking a trade. If the conditions are met take the trade!

Robert

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1st trade of the day

Entry type: Sell Stop below low of the day

I let this one get away. I missed my target by 1 tick and it reversed. I didnt get out when it started going back up. -3 ticks.



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Silver Dragon View Post
1st trade of the day

Entry type: Sell Stop below low of the day

I let this one get away. I missed my target by 1 tick and it reversed. I didnt get out when it started going back up. -3 ticks.

This loss really came down to the mental games of the combine. My avg win and avg loss are fairly close. In the back of the mind I was thinking if I close it out with a small win then it will draw the numbers closer together. If I go with a small loss then it make it further apart. I dont mind the daily loss limit and the max DD but the other numbers put me on edge. I guess its good to have these parameters in place but I feel like I am gaming the system when I have to make a decision like this. It just feels like cheating to me.

Robert

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 Silver Dragon 
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2nd trade of the day

Entry Type: Sell Stop below low of the day

Good setup but there was no follow through the downward movement. -4 ticks

Edit: so price took me out by 1 tick then reversed and hit my target.

Robert


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3rd trade of the day

Entry type: Sell stop below low of they day

Valid entry- no follow through on the first leg down. Reversed took out my stop and then went on to hit my original target. Taking a break. -10 ticks.

Robert




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Final stats for 5/10/13

3 losses in a row. I am done for the day. Today's difference between have a winning day and a losing day came down to 3 ticks on the first two trades. Two ticks away from a target on the first trade and one tick on a stop on the second trade. Days like this will happen, its part of trading.

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 Silver Dragon 
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Final stats for the week

Ended the week down 8 ticks. -165 net when commissions are added in. I am taking this as a good week; I did not hit my loss limit nor did I give back all my gains from the previous two weeks.

Robert


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 xelaar 
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Good trading, Robert! Looks like you are having same situation in crude today as I was having in gold, big down trend but no follow through on breaks lower for most part. I think your trading is good and consistent, maybe, just, that you need to concentrate to capture larger winners, same problem as I have. Keep doing it, good consistency. Have a good weekend.

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 Silver Dragon 
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I made a mistake. This entry was not a valid. The two previous trades where breaks of support and a new low of the day. This trade was simply a new low. The probabilities are less on these types of trades and they tend to pull back further which this one did.

After the two near misses I had on the first two trades I think I was emotional and made a rash decision. I should have taken a break and cleared my mind after the two losses.

Edit: "I think I was emotional" - Should be "I know I was emotional".
Robert


Silver Dragon View Post
3rd trade of the day

Entry type: Sell stop below low of they day

Valid entry- no follow through on the first leg down. Reversed took out my stop and then went on to hit my original target. Taking a break. -10 ticks.

Robert





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xelaar View Post
Good trading, Robert! Looks like you are having same situation in crude today as I was having in gold, big down trend but no follow through on breaks lower for most part. I think your trading is good and consistent, maybe, just, that you need to concentrate to capture larger winners, same problem as I have. Keep doing it, good consistency. Have a good weekend.

Alex

@xelaar

Alex,

Thanks! I agree I need larger wins. The problem is I dont know the best method of setting targets. It seems when I try to go for anything over 20 ticks I get burned. Maybe I am getting in to late on the trade. I dont know. I will be reviewing my trades this weekend to see what I can come up with. Although, I dont think I am going to change my method at this point. I am too far into the combine and dont want to style drift and completely knock myself out of the combine. If anything I would like to at least get rollover.

Your combine is looking very nice!! You have plenty of time to finish it out. As you told me; Slow and steady!

Robert

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 shzhning 
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Robert, how about increase the number of contracts for each trade?

You combine report shows you've the discipline and consistency of a good trader. Instead of stretching yourself for elusive larger targets, trading multiple contracts might be a better route. You can keep your current set up you're comfortable with. Just my thoughts.

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 Silver Dragon 
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shzhning View Post
Robert, how about increase the number of contracts for each trade?

You combine report shows you've the discipline and consistency of a good trader. Instead of stretching yourself for elusive larger targets, trading multiple contracts might be a better route. You can keep your current set up you're comfortable with. Just my thoughts.

Hi @shzhning

I have thought about this many many times and there are a few reasons why I have not gone down that path.
  1. The 30K combine leaves to little room for error to trade multiple contracts. With a $500 loss limit it would be very easy on a bad day to hit it.
    .
  2. The Live Trader Prep which follows a successful combine only allows a $500 loss limit for the week. Two bad days in a row and you would be done.
    .
  3. I thought about adding contracts once I got a cushion like $1000 but the problem I see is if I were to have a couple bad days like this week then I would have to go back to one contract and make up twice as much ground. Currently sitting at 915 had I traded two contracts this week when I was over a $1000 there is a possibility I might be closer to 700 today.

With that said, I think it makes sense to have multiple contracts if you have the appropriate plan and combine to make it work. I have thought about a custom combine and raising my loss limit to 700 or 800. This would give me enough cushion for my trading style to use two contracts. Its something I will be thinking about if I dont make it through this one.

Thanks for refreshing the idea. Something to think about this weekend.

Robert

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 Silver Dragon 
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Morning Charts 5-13-13

Doji formation on the weekly charts last week. Generally indicates a top. However, on the daily chart we have had 3 days of rejection as price has tried to go lower. Last Fridays low touched the trend line and reversed. Hourly chart looks to be in a pennant formation. Overnight on the 15 minute chart there was a channel. Price broke out of it this morning. To me there are contradicting signals as far as the long term price movement goes. Short tern - Buy above 96 and short below 95.





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 Silver Dragon 
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1st trade of the day

Entry type: Sell Stop below the low of the opening bar on the open

Solid trade. Took 4 ticks of heat on the trade. This trade had good follow through on the way down. +15 ticks

Robert

Edit: made a mistake on entry type. should have not been low of the day



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Goals for the day

My goals for today:Trade my plan. Don't force trades. Wait for the trade to come to me. Manage the trade through my targets and stops. Have patience and let the trade play out. Don't let fear or indecision keep me from taking a trade. If the conditions are met take the trade!

Robert

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 xelaar 
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Looks like a range day on both black and shiny golds, be careful with these break outs while inside the value area! Good goal!

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I am very distracted at the moment. I am not seeing the market clearly. Taking a break to get the distractions taken care of.

Robert

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I am very distracted at the moment. I am not seeing the market clearly. Taking a break to get the distractions taken care of.

Robert

I would say there is nothing to see, market does not move at all.

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I am very distracted at the moment. I am not seeing the market clearly. Taking a break to get the distractions taken care of.

Robert

Missed the best moves of the day. Going to call it a day and finish up some other projects.

Robert

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Final stats for 5-13-13

I was really distracted this morning and could not 100% focus on trading. Ended the day on the positive side of the ledger with one trade +15 ticks. I followed my rules on the trade and quit trading when I realized I did not have the focus to continue.

Robert



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Combine Results Day 14


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Morning Charts for 5/14/13

Heading down on the weekly chart. - Broke out of overnight channel on the 15 minute chart but it looks weak at the moment. Currently in a range on the hourly chart. Came within 4 ticks of making a double bottom on the hourly chart. The fact that it didnt touch it could mean it will retest again. If CL breaks 9445 on the daily this would violate the trend line. Could mean we go lower from here.

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Horrible day- Missed the opening trade. My entries were too precise which means they all reversed. Jing crashed again. I need to reboot my trading machine. I will post my charts later. Ended the day -25 ticks.

Robert

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Horrible day- Missed the opening trade. My entries were too precise which means they all reversed. Jing crashed again. I need to reboot my trading machine. I will post my charts later. Ended the day -25 ticks.

Robert

Keep strong, it's just another krap day today for trading break outs.

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Horrible day- Missed the opening trade. My entries were too precise which means they all reversed. Jing crashed again. I need to reboot my trading machine. I will post my charts later. Ended the day -25 ticks.

Robert

Final Results for 5/13/14
Busy night. First warm day of May and I Finally had time to do some yard work. So I was going to put some charts together for today's trades but decided to show just one. Individual charts would be out of context. Below are the results and chart

I made the mistake of trying to be too precise on my trades. Hindsight being 20/20 I should have went with my two trades I outlined in my morning report. Had I done that I would have probably ended positive for the day.

Trade1
Entry Type: Selll Stop below Trend Line.
Entered to early. Hard reversal -10 ticks

Trade2
Entry Type: Buy Stop above Resistance.
Trade failed to push higher. -2 ticks

Trade3
Entry type: Mistake.
I tried to cancel the order but was too late and ended up cancleing my targets and stops. Closed trade out. -3 ticks

Trade4
Entry Type: Sell Stop below trend line.
Entry was to close to the line. Touched my entry and reversed.




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Morning charts for 5/15/13

Late start this morning. Over a 100 tick sell off overnight. The trend line on the daily chart has been broken. Channels on the hourly and 15 minute charts. Looking for a buy above 9254 and sell below 9290.

Robert

Edit: Posted yesterdays charts. Fix and posted todays.





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1st trade of the day.

Entry type. Stop market above double bottom.

Trade had no follow through. It went 10 ticks and pulled back. I moved my target to 5 ticks and was filled. +5 ticks.

Robert



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2nd trade of the day

Entry Type: Sell Stop below support and low of the day

Missed my target by 1 tick. I had a tight stop on this trade because I thought it might reverse. - 5 ticks.

Robert



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3rd trade of the day

Entry Type: Buy stop above high of the bar

My premise was right on this trade but my target was all wrong. I waited for the EIA report to come out and waited for a reversal. Trade went 11 ticks and reversed on the S2 line. 10 ticks would have been the correct target. - 8 ticks.

Robert



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4th trade of the day

Entry Type: Buy Stop above trend line.

It is clear I am not seeing the market. -15 ticks. I am done for the day.

Robert



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4th trade of the day

Entry Type: Buy Stop above trend line.

It is clear I am not seeing the market. -15 ticks. I am done for the day.

Robert




This is the breakout I was looking for. Hmm.. What did I miss?

Robert


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Rough week. At this point I am not concerned about passing the combine. I am more concerned about why my trading went south. Is it because the market changed? Is it because I have changed? Did my trading change? Is it a combination of all the above? Not sure. Shutting down the charts and will be taking a couple of days off and will review this weekend with a objective mind.

Robert

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Silver Dragon View Post
Rough week. At this point I am not concerned about passing the combine. I am more concerned about why my trading went south. Is it because the market changed? Is it because I have changed? Did my trading change? Is it a combination of all the above? Not sure. Shutting down the charts and will be taking a couple of days off and will review this weekend with a objective mind.

Robert

Robert, very hard market for any type of break out trading - it triggers and falls back before going again. I only fight it by killing trades on very small profit within 5 seconds, otherwise most will reverse and lose. Just a market phase. Good time to develop a range-bound or reversal entry type. Keep on rolling it!

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Combine Day 16


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Sunday Night Update.

I had a death in the family over the weekend and will be attending the funeral on Monday so I will not be trading. My combine ends on Wednesday which means there is little chance to make up what I lost over the past two weeks. Obviously I did not get to do the in depth analysis this weekend as I had planned but did get a little bit done. Below is part of a post I started on Saturday but never got to post. There is more to add but I will do that at a later date.

Robert


Quoting 
.......... Looking at my data Friday night I was able to see some glaring problems that needed to be addressed.

The biggest thing that jumped out was I had no way to control down my downside risk other than to move to SIM or just stop trading. Not a big fan of moving to SIM. The reason is for me trading SIM vs the combine is very different. I do way better in SIM because I have nothing at stake. It occurred to me what I really want to do is to decrease the number of contracts traded. This would slow my downside decent and allow me to work things out live. Obviously cannot do this with a 30K combine trading one contract. So the question becomes should I move to a larger combine?

..... I now have enough trade data to create a baseline and will be able to play out different trade scenarios. Among other things I started looking at what my contract size would look like based off my current results for the other combines. Since Risk is most important I took the worst day as a % of the daily loss limit and projected how many contracts I could trade while keeping the % of the daily loss limit the same across the other combines. Per this last combine results my worst day was 54% of the 500 daily loss limit. Projected out I could trade 2/4/6 contracts for the 50K/100K/150K combines with loss limits of 1000/2000/3000 respectively.






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Tick summary. First half the combine looks great then it flattens out then downward. Made 130 ticks at the peak and ended at 80 ticks.

Robert


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I didnt realize it until I was looking at this chart, but I stopped my trading right after the trend line break of my equity curve. It was also a double top. Was it trader instinct or luck that told me to stop?


Robert


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Taking some time off before I begin the next combine. Still reflecting on the last combine. Working around the house and spending time with family. I have been learning more about volume profile and testing some ideas. Nothing serious at this point.

Robert

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Testing trading ideas -SIM 150K account - 89 tick chart - 6 contracts

Building off my current process I added volume profile to make the following trades. First trade I was in too early. Second trade I hit the mark and made 69 ticks with a run up to 100 ticks.

This is where I need to get to. Looking back at my combine I had several trades where I could have used this process to have a better entry and let the trade run.

Robert



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Testing trading ideas -SIM 150K account - 89 tick chart - 6 contracts

Testing Volume Profile and trend line break on the Yen. +52 ticks

Robert



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Testing Trading Ideas.

I have been working with @PandaWarrior on pyramiding contracts on a trade. The idea is to add to a winning postilion and let it run. It works well because you lose less when you are wrong and win more when you are right. Here is a trade I took this morning using the method. I started out with 4 contracts and then added 4 more when I was +11 ticks.

Ended the trade +39 ticks on the first 4 contracts and +28 on the last 4 contracts.

Trade entry was a trend line break on the open combined with position on the volume profile chart. I set the target on the low volume area on upper part of the volume profile chart.

Robert



Ticks only:


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Testing trade ideas.


Second trade of the day.

Entry type: Trend line break combine with being in the extreme range of the Volume Profile.

Entered on this trade but really did not have a warm and fuzzy feeling so I did not add to the position. Exited the trade +19 ticks.

Robert



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Great stuff with pyramiding. This is the road to riches.

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Testing trade ideas.

3rd trade of the day

Entry type: Trend line break. Fade the volume profile extreme.

The premise of trading volume profile is to trade extremes. In other words wait for price to get to a area where there is low volume then fade it back the other way. Use trend line breaks double tops etc for a entry signal. This was a good example of that type of trade. I got in too early on this trade because there was a fake breakout. Admittedly I have more experience trading the CL than the Yen so the price action is different but the outcome is the same.

The target I had for this trade was well placed. What I could have done was hold onto the position and add more to the position above the gap. Still learning but it is coming together nicely. +10 ticks on the trade.

Robert




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Testing trading ideas.


1st trade of the day.

Entry type: Trend line break; price @ extreme of volume profile.

I took a trade before the open which I try to stay away from, however the conditions were met. I was thinking like I used to and trying to protect profits. I exited the trade @ 11 ticks. It proceeded to go 30 ticks lower. I actually had my stop @ BE and I still closed it out!! This is a habit I have to break; overreacting when price goes against me.

Original idea on trade was to scale in after it broke below the gap. This was the right trade!! I left 1500 on the table.

Robert



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Testing trading ideas.


1st trade of the day.

Entry type: Trend line break; price @ extreme of volume profile.

I took a trade before the open which I try to stay away from, however the conditions were met. I was thinking like I used to and trying to protect profits. I exited the trade @ 11 ticks. It proceeded to go 30 ticks lower. I actually had my stop @ BE and I still closed it out!! This is a habit I have to break; overreacting when price goes against me.

Original idea on trade was to scale in after it broke below the gap. This was the right trade!! I left 1500 on the table.

Robert

What could have been!!!


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Testing trade ideas

2nd trade of the day.

Entry type: trend line break and price at extreme on volume profile.

Had my stop to tight. -9 ticks.

Robert



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