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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading


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Breakout Journal - a journey to full time trading

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  #481 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
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2nd trade of the day

Entry Type: Sell Stop below support and low of the day

Missed my target by 1 tick. I had a tight stop on this trade because I thought it might reverse. - 5 ticks.

Robert



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  #482 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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3rd trade of the day

Entry Type: Buy stop above high of the bar

My premise was right on this trade but my target was all wrong. I waited for the EIA report to come out and waited for a reversal. Trade went 11 ticks and reversed on the S2 line. 10 ticks would have been the correct target. - 8 ticks.

Robert



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  #483 (permalink)
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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4th trade of the day

Entry Type: Buy Stop above trend line.

It is clear I am not seeing the market. -15 ticks. I am done for the day.

Robert



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Silver Dragon View Post
4th trade of the day

Entry Type: Buy Stop above trend line.

It is clear I am not seeing the market. -15 ticks. I am done for the day.

Robert




This is the breakout I was looking for. Hmm.. What did I miss?

Robert


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Rough week. At this point I am not concerned about passing the combine. I am more concerned about why my trading went south. Is it because the market changed? Is it because I have changed? Did my trading change? Is it a combination of all the above? Not sure. Shutting down the charts and will be taking a couple of days off and will review this weekend with a objective mind.

Robert

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  #486 (permalink)
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Silver Dragon View Post
Rough week. At this point I am not concerned about passing the combine. I am more concerned about why my trading went south. Is it because the market changed? Is it because I have changed? Did my trading change? Is it a combination of all the above? Not sure. Shutting down the charts and will be taking a couple of days off and will review this weekend with a objective mind.

Robert

Robert, very hard market for any type of break out trading - it triggers and falls back before going again. I only fight it by killing trades on very small profit within 5 seconds, otherwise most will reverse and lose. Just a market phase. Good time to develop a range-bound or reversal entry type. Keep on rolling it!

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Combine Day 16


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Sunday Night Update.

I had a death in the family over the weekend and will be attending the funeral on Monday so I will not be trading. My combine ends on Wednesday which means there is little chance to make up what I lost over the past two weeks. Obviously I did not get to do the in depth analysis this weekend as I had planned but did get a little bit done. Below is part of a post I started on Saturday but never got to post. There is more to add but I will do that at a later date.

Robert


Quoting 
.......... Looking at my data Friday night I was able to see some glaring problems that needed to be addressed.

The biggest thing that jumped out was I had no way to control down my downside risk other than to move to SIM or just stop trading. Not a big fan of moving to SIM. The reason is for me trading SIM vs the combine is very different. I do way better in SIM because I have nothing at stake. It occurred to me what I really want to do is to decrease the number of contracts traded. This would slow my downside decent and allow me to work things out live. Obviously cannot do this with a 30K combine trading one contract. So the question becomes should I move to a larger combine?

..... I now have enough trade data to create a baseline and will be able to play out different trade scenarios. Among other things I started looking at what my contract size would look like based off my current results for the other combines. Since Risk is most important I took the worst day as a % of the daily loss limit and projected how many contracts I could trade while keeping the % of the daily loss limit the same across the other combines. Per this last combine results my worst day was 54% of the 500 daily loss limit. Projected out I could trade 2/4/6 contracts for the 50K/100K/150K combines with loss limits of 1000/2000/3000 respectively.






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Tick summary. First half the combine looks great then it flattens out then downward. Made 130 ticks at the peak and ended at 80 ticks.

Robert


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Legendary Data Wizard!!!
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Posts: 1,892 since Feb 2011
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I didnt realize it until I was looking at this chart, but I stopped my trading right after the trend line break of my equity curve. It was also a double top. Was it trader instinct or luck that told me to stop?


Robert


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