Took a scalp play on the 15 minute bars. Waited for the pull back after a huge down bar. The plan was to take a 10 tick scalp. Ended up +11 with slippage with 0 MAE. This was executed perfectly. I set a Buy Stop above the high of the bar with a 5 tick stop and waited for it to tick up. Trade took 7 seconds from entry to exit.
This is a setup I have been watching and practicing for a while. This is the first time I executed it in a combine.
Took a trade on the break out of the trend line. Did not have the patience to hold it to my target of 15 ticks. Ended up +11. I watched this one closely because the day has been very bearish. My feeling is there could be a strong pullback to the downside on any type of weakness.
Robert
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Currently sitting at +40 ticks for the day. There is one more possible breakout to the upside and one to the downside I might take assuming it does not happen late in the afternoon.
I felt very comfortable trading today. I turned off my P/L on the last trade. It was freaking me out a little not being able to see it. However, I did notice I was forced to look at the chart in relation to support and resistance levels and not the number ticks I had gained. Will attempt to go to all day tomorrow without seeing my P/L.
Last night - notes.
I saw the downside potential last night but did not have the courage to put the target below the support. I was going to attempt to make it two trades. The trade idea was right but was lacking in execution.
I originally had a 20 tick target which was above the low of last week. The plan was if my first target hit to put a sell stop below last weeks low. Well price blew through the low before I had a chance to setup the stop. Hindsight - I should have set up the entry while in my first trade because it was a high probability trade. The only positive thing that happened was I didnt chase the trade. Last night would have been the rare exception where it ended positively but even knowing this it still would have not been worth the risk.
My entry last night was 90.55 and todays low 87.86. I ended up with 20 ticks last night. Not a bad trade by any means but still I caught myself saying what if.... So, I am giving myself an A for recognizing the what was happening and a C-/D+ for capitalizing on it.
15 minute chart. Channel formed with today's action. There is a bit of bottoming out since the close. Price is in the midddle of the channel so there is a possibility of breakdown if it breaks or rally if it holds.. choose your poison.
I cant remember where I heard it but someone said the trades which look the worst or where you have the most fear in taking generally end up being the best trades. I have found this to be true over the last couple of days. Tonight I missed a 50 tick run because of fear. All the signs were there, it was screaming take me! take me! I even had the sell stop set. I took it out and 15 minutes later price was 50 ticks lower. I have missed out on 150 ticks (conservative) over the past 24 hours because of fear and poor execution.
So what can I do?? I have to take the trades for better or worse... for richer for poorer.. regardless of what I feel at the moment... I suppose this would be considered growing pains in the world of trading? Man this sucks! Feels like I missed the shot to win the game..
Robert
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First trade of the day was flat. The entry conditions were met however, price moved a few ticks in the direction of the trade then just stopped and hung in mid air for more than a minute. When it started to reverse I got out.
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Could be a flat day. Went back above the support on the weekly chart and is just sitting there. There is a lot of congestion to get through on the hourly chart to go higher. Although there is less resistance to the downside. I will be watching till it breaks out of this range.
I have a test trade in 6E using the same rules but its not working out as well. 6E moves are erratic and there are a lot of false moves. You can tell this by the tails on the bars. I now remember why I quit trading 6E; it can make a good trader look bad!
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One condition I have for entering a trade is to wait for a new low and on the next bar take a long trade if price breaks the previous bars high. I did not take this trade because price would have been moving back into congestion. Based on the outcome of the bar this turned out to be the right decision. This is a breakthrough moment; I am starting to see the whole chart and not just the bar I am trading.
Edit: Had I entered the trade I would have been stopped out.
Robert
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Took a 5 tick scalp on the breakout of the range. I probably could have held a little longer to get 10 ticks. This will probably be my final trade of the day. Ended the day with +20 ticks.
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I am having difficulty reading the overnight action. If you look at the hourly and 15 minute chart its pretty much a rounded top except its not a top... If you follow the rules for a rounded top and bottom, then this formation suggest that CL will go lower.
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I missed my original entry about 20 ticks higher but got in on the break below the opening 30 minute range. traded 2 contracts today with a 15 tick target. 1 lot was filled at 15 ticks and I exited the final lot when it started pulling back. Total ticks gained was 22 ticks.
After the second lot didnt get filled I briefly thought about moving the target out and moving the stop to BE. Decided instead to book profits.
Entry type: Sell stop below the support of the range.
Took a 15 tick base hit after the news. Only traded 1 contract because of the potential volatility. I have seen these types of moves before and generally they go from 15 to 30 ticks. Taking the low end of the range to increase the probability of profits.
Robert
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Entry Style. Sell stop below support and low of the day.
Took a trade on the break of support and the new low of the day. 15 tick target with 1 contract. I messed up because this should have been 2 contracts. Forgot to switch it back after the last trade. I also had a connection issue with my server and did not get my entry where I wanted it.
+51 ticks on the day. This is probably my final trade of the day.
Robert
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I missed a couple trading opportunities due to fear of taking the trade. The first one was somewhat legitimate because price was going into congestion and I thought the upside potential was limited. After watching the price action play out I determined I could have still made a profit on the entry.
The second one I missed was for fear of losing my profit I had gained. I hesitated on setting my stop entry and missed the prime entry spot. Fear of losing a profit is not a excuse to not trade my setups. This was a high probability setup which has to be taken every time it comes up.
As I journal these events I am starting to see a pattern of not pulling the trigger due to fear. Its disturbing to me that I am holding myself back.... Now that I see one of the problems I need to set a plan in place to conquer it.
Robert
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Back in the day.. I guess its been 20 years gone by now, I used to write poetry a lot. For various reasons and much to my wife's dismay I started writing less and less. Now I write a few times a year. When I started to identify my fear on paper poetry is what came out. So I thought would share how I perceive fear. Its raw and unedited but I think it conveys the power fear has over people.
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It looks like we have hit a short term bottom overnight. CL hit 8561 over night and rebounded with a very structured trend. On the weekly chart CL is back to the first support/resistance area.
On the hourly chart there is a night channel pattern which has formed overnight. On the 15 minute chart you can see where price made moves up and rested and then continued upward.
This seems very structured unlike the erratic moves over the past few days. If price can get past the support / resistance area then I think today will be a up day.
I was messing around with 3 contracts yesterday in SIM and forgot to change it back to 2. When i entered the trade and realized I had 3 contracts I started to panic and moved my target to 10 ticks. I should have kept it where it was at which was 15 ticks. The trade ended well so no harm done.
I am awake now!! Adding "Check my trade settings" to my morning checklist.
Price moved back above the support resistance area overnight on the weekly chart. On the hourly chart price is still in an uptrend but but has flattened out a bit. This could be a sign of a top. Retested the low on the 15 minute charts and bounced
Rollover is also occurring so this will affect trading today. CL could move sideways today unless there is news to drive it one way or the other.
I am also distracted by whats going on in Boston. Unless I get my focus on I may not trade today.
Robert
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No trades today. Prices as was all over the place in a tight range. I could not get a good feel for the market. Traded some in SIM which ended with a couple of winners and losers. These were really test trades trying to figure out how to trade these type of days.
Stats for this week and a excerpt from my personal journal. This was a sobering journal entry and week for me. Reality about trading for a living has finally set in.
For context, I dont expect to have results like this every week. I expect that if I follow my plan and trade consistently so that over time I will come out on the positive side of the ledger.
Robert
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Price had a failed breakout attempt of the trend line on the 15 min chart. New upper trend line formed off the high bar mid way through the previous downtrend. Looks like it might retest the lows of the night.
Robert
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Price made a new low over night on the 15 minute chart then took off to the upside when the Asian session opened. On the hourly chart price is in wedge. The weekly chart price is above the support/resistance area. To the upside there is resistance @89.38ish and 90.00. Could be another sideways day today.
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Entry type: Sell stop below Fridays support area and below the opening 30 min range.
This trade was a tough trade because I had to put my entry way below where I wanted to get in. The reason for this is because there was a lot a support from last Friday which causing chop. I have seen price in these support areas reverse on a dime. There is also support on the lower trend line @8838. On the whole, my entry was solid and price went quickly toward my target. I ended up taking a profit before the home sales report came out @ 10 am. Missed my adjusted target by 1 tick. Ended up +9.
Using a longer term chart to show this entry and exit. There is support about 5 ticks below where I placed my exit. I think price might break that level, however, I wanted to lock in profits. Took 4 ticks of heat on the trade.
Robert
Edit: I thought about taking multiple contracts on this trade. There are certain trades where I believe it makes sense to have multiple contracts. The simple reason for this is they are very high probability. This is one of those trades. I need to work multiple contracts into my trading plan.
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Allergies are kicking my butt today. I am not mentally sharp as I should be. Feel like I am on a 30 second delay. This may be the reason I have missed 3 trades today. Didn't help that I got a late start. Gonna take a break for a while and come back after lunch. If I don't feel better by then I will call it a day and start fresh tomorrow.
As i stated in a previous post I missed 3 trades today. I think I missed them because I was not 100% focused due to illness. Feeling better than I was this morning but not well enough to risk another live trade. Hindsight being 20/20 I probably should not have traded today.
Robert
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Right now with the current state stop entries below the support and above the resistance is my most profitable entry type. I am going to continue to use this as my primary entry vehicle until it stops working.
Knowing the markets can change any day I am starting to practice other entry methods. I would like to have 3 main entry types. I documented a second entry type today.
Documenting my trades before I move on to the next trade has been a interesting experience. A benefit from documenting all trades is it has kept me from over trading or re-entering a trade after I exit. Having time in between trades gets me away from the market long enough that I have to re-evaluate the market state. Less bias going into the next trade.
CL dropped overnight. It broke out of a range around 9:30 EST last night and fell 1.30+ before rebounding. On the weekly chart CL is stuck between the support and resistance area and resistance level @ 8948. There was a double top formed yesterday on hourly chart. See green box at the top of the hourly chart. This was not well defined. On the 15 minute chart there was a 50% retracement of the overnight downtrend. CL feels like it is stuck between the support and resistance areas. If CL breaks into the support and resistance area and makes a new low for this week (below 8780) we could see a march toward lows of last week
Robert
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Got stopped out on the breakout. My entry placement was good but I realized when I was looking at the chart that my best trades are when the opening of the bar is near the support / resistance line. This bar was far away traveled too far before hitting my entry. -12 ticks on the trade.
Robert
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Had to run out so a little late posting my second trade. My logic for entering the trade was different than in the past. At the start of the new bar a size of 400 showed up on the ask side. I took this as manipulation and went short. Once I was in the trade my connection to my trading server starting acting up. Kept freezing up. Could not adjust my stop to where I wanted it. Finally decided it would be best to take the profit just in case it reversed. Clicked the flatten button about 50 times before it went through. Ended +9 on the trade.
Today was a tough day of trading. The market was in a range for most of the morning and it was very volatile. I did pretty good by staying out of the trading what I am not good at but when opportunity presented itself for a good setup I totally over analyzed it. Took my stop entry in and out 5 times. My entry happen to be the big rally prior to lunch. One of the things I am really good at is not chasing trades. The flip side of this good habit is having to watch what you missed. I was miserable watching it going up. However, what I did do is try to predict where it would stop. A channel had formed and I watched it for a entry. When I saw 400 size come in on the offer I took this as my entry signal. Then my connection to my trading server started acting up. Closed it out early because I could not manage the trade. At this point I pretty much called it a day. I am happy with a 3 tick loss.
Robert
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Took a scalp tonight on the trend line break. Should have walked away from the trade and let it play out. Ended up with a 5 tick scalp but it could have been 15. I dont know why I let my emotions get the best of me.
Robert
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The trend for the week is still up. Heading back toward the breakout area of 91. Hourly chart is in a upward channel. 15 minute chart is a in a upward channel. Lower channel support is around 89ish on the hourly chart. Will be watching that area with interest to see if it breaks down.
Robert
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I rushed into this trade before I went through my check list this morning and it cost me. I ended up using my scalping ATM to enter the trade. This had a tight trailing stop. You can guess what happened. -7 ticks on the trade. Dumb move on my part.
Robert
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Took this trade off the open. I place a buy stop above the trend line. Almost moved my target but stuck with it. Ended the trade +15 ticks.
Looking at the chart now I could have got more out of the trade. Observation- If the trade begins toward the end of the bar, in this case the 15 minute bar where I entered at 11 after, there is higher probability price will continue in the direction of the trade on the next bar.
EIA Petroleum Status Report due to be released at 09:30 CST. I am watching for a move at the top of the hour. If it does not happen then I will not trade until after the report is released.
Entry type: Buy Stop above high of day and channel
I am extremely happy with this trade. I waited for over a hour for this setup and did not remove my stop entry. I had a 15 tick target on this however, I felt with the breakout of the hourly channel that it might be short lived so I had my pointer on the flatten button. +15 ticks
Robert
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Note: Not shown is the trade from last night of $45 which will be included on my TST trade report. Total ticks between last night and today 28 ticks. Net: $260
Robert
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Still bullish on the hour and weekly charts. The overnight 15 minute chart was in a range. Shows some indecision. Will see if there a continuation higher or consolidation of prices (profit taking) today for the bulls.
Notice how the upper channel line yesterday is now the lower channel line on the hourly chart. It was violated this morning. Looking at the weekly chart its really quite amazing where price has climbed back too.
Robert
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Entry type: Sell Stop below previous bar and double top.
Caught the opening move this morning. It was a solid trade. Took 1 tick of heat. My original target was 20 but moved it back to 16 because I saw some possible resistance from the overnight lows. I had a thought of moving my target to the overnight lows but I decided I did not want to be greedy. Just keep getting base hits.. The home runs will come later. +16 ticks on the trade.
Robert
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Missed a great entry which would have taken me to my goal for the day. I noticed I was looking for a entry after I missed the trade which translates into me trying to force a trade or revenge trading. Gonna stop here and take a break..
Today was a tough day. Not because of the market but because I missed a great entry on the move up. I was really looking for any entry after I missed the trade. Any entry... At that point I realized my rational for decision making had been compromised so I called it a day. I reminded myself that it was still a good day and there will be others.
+16 ticks. $155 net.
Robert
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As I was prepping this morning CL broke out of the downward triangle on the Hourly and 15 minute chart. Will see if this holds. Weekly is still up. The bias is up for the day if the breakout holds.. Possibly retest the highs of yesterday. If price goes back below the trend line then there could be a big sell off due to profit taking. Or it could just go sideways because its Friday!
Robert
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Entry type 3rd trade: Sell stop below the trend line
Entry type 4th trade: Sell stop below the trend line
3rd trade entry was a good and I had a short target. Price did exactly what I thought it would. Touched the support line and reversed. Target hit!
4th Trade.- The entry was good however, I had a long term trend line (not pictured cause I deleted it in frustration!) that I had place below my entry. It was a bad trend line!! So price went down and came within 2 ticks of my target and reversed. I quickly closed out the trade and had slippage. As soon as I exited the trade price went 20 ticks lower.. Was totally bummed when I realized the trend line was not in the right place. Oh well. It is what it is.. I am currently down 20 bucks for the day.
Robert
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I entered above the resistance level. Did not hit my 15 tick target so I exited the trade +6. Should have had it set to 10 ticks. Today has been a take what you can get type of day.
Robert
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This day could have gone better and could have definitely been worse. Ended the day +6 ticks $35 net. I made mistakes today per execution and focus. After missing the opening trade I was anxious the rest of the day. This caused me to rush trades and not see them fully for what they could have been. I will be reviewing my trades this weekend. With the exception of the second trade all my entries were solid. The exits is where I had the problem. I did not have focus and was not seeing the big picture.
Robert
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One of the things I have struggled with is setting a proper target for my trades. Some are obvious while others are not. The part I have to figure out is how to get more out of my trades. I have witnessed my trades run further after I get out of them. So I wanted to know how much further they ran. Below are the results compared to my actual profit taken.
The left two columns is a estimate of Max number of ticks/profit my trades could have made. The right column is what I actually made. My current target is 15 ticks. Had I left the trades alone I would have hit my 15 tick target on every trade.
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Robert, funny but our combine results look very similar, half time in, third of required profit acquired and the only red metric is holding time. Keep up good work!
Alex
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Right now I am focusing on entries so I am very happy with my results. However, what my comparison showed is I dont have confidence once I am in the trade. When the trade appears to be going against me I panic and exit the trade. What I need to do is keep my hand off the mouse and let the trade play out.
In the future I would like to manage the trade from the stop side or with a larger logical target such as support/resistance, trend lines, etc. This will give me the occasional home runs which would take my trading to the next level.
Robert
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Playing around with Tradervue. Below is a summary sheet and statistics of last week. Included a view of MAE.
The MAE view is interesting. I take a average of 3 ticks of heat on a winning trade. My take away is my entries are solid and I should continue to doing what I am doing. I currently start out with a 15 tick stop. This could be moved to a 10 tick stop based on the this data. However, to be statistically accurate I need more trade data.
Robert
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Long night.. Power came back on about 1:30 am. Resetting and checking everything till 2 am. Tired this morning.. Writing this from my iPad @ McDonalds while sipping a large cup of caffenee so I have no idea how my trade turned out.
Weekly chart is up however CL has not cleared the last weeks high. Will be watching closely to see if it re-tests last weeks highs. The 15 minute and hourly chart are in agreement this morning via the trend line and support: A break below 9318 would be a entry point to go lower. A break above 9346 would be a entry to go higher. Currently in middle of this range.
Robert
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Solid entry. Took 3 ticks of heat. Per my morning notes I placed a Buy Stop above the 9346 resistance line. Moved my target to 20 ticks. Moved my stop to +5 after it reached 15 ticks. Waited patiently for the target to be hit. I am thinking about trading multiple contracts on the open. Its really my best trade of the day. If I did this I have the potential to be one and done depending on the move.
Robert
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Nice entry! I wonder what sort of stop loss you are having on these type of break out entries? I trade very similar setups based on order flow with very tight stops, thus I wonder what do you use.
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My entry was good but I panicked when price started retreating. This cost me again. As soon as I exited the trade it went up and hit my target. +2 on the trade.
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Thanks! I start out with a 15 tick stop loss. Most of the time I move it to 10 to 12 ticks depending on where my entry is and what the chart looks like. As price moves up so does my stop. Example. 1st trade I moved stop to 10 ticks right after the entry. 2nd trade I had it at 12 ticks which was right below the open of the entry bar.
Robert
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Good entry. Took 6 ticks of heat on this one. Hit my target of 15 ticks. I originally had ideas of placing my target @ 9432 which is a resistance line. As I am typing this up price hit this level. I am starting to see targets on the chart. I need to trust what I see and go for it. +37 ticks on the day. May call it here unless something really good comes along.
Robert
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Two weeks ago I had my best week ever trading. Nearly all the entries were support and resistance breakouts and there was a lot of them. Last week the breaks came mostly on trend line breaks. Had a good week but trades were harder to come by. This week is starting out with support and resistance breakouts. Recognizing the difference in market types is important. If support and resistance breakouts continue to be my best setups then it makes sense to up the position size. I need more trade data to confirm this, but on the surface it makes sense.
Robert
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Today was a good day. I saw my entries clearly and was able to capitalize on trades 1 & 3. I am frustrated with the second trade because the stop I had in place was 3 ticks. Had I been stopped out it would have been been good trade management. Instead I panicked and turned a solid positive trade into a minor positive trade.
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On the weekly chart CL is sitting at lasts weeks high. On the hourly charts its sitting on a trend line. On the 15 minute chart - a double bottom was broke from yesterday afternoon. This is a decision point for CL. If the trend line is broken on the hourly we go lower. If the trend line holds then we go higher. Right now the bias would be higher because there is a trend line and price is sitting at support of lasts weeks high.
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Ended this trade flat. Price was just not moving to my liking. My entry was off as well. Had it been closer to the resistance line I might had held it longer. Bad trade off the open
Edit: I over analyzed my entry.
Robert
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For some reason I was nervous about this trade. Had a target of 15 ticks but moved it to 10 because it pulled back to my entry 3 times. Should have held this longer. +10 ticks
Robert
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Adding "Check my trade settings" to my morning checklist. 
I start out with a 15 tick stop loss. Most of the time I move it to 10 to 12 ticks depending on where my entry is and what the chart looks like. As price moves up so does my stop. Example. 1st trade I moved stop to 10 ticks right after the entry. 2nd trade I had it at 12 ticks which was right below the open of the entry bar.