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ES entries/targets & risk/rewards
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ES entries/targets & risk/rewards

  #51 (permalink)
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well done -looks like your back in the saddle -

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #52 (permalink)
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Rad4633 View Post
target hit 51.75 @ 4:06

Lod was at 50.50 @4:12

Great trade! Just some thoughts for you to consider on your trading.

It appears you went short first thing this morning off the 2nd standard deviation level. That's the right idea but I would warn on jumping in right away. You don't want to be a part of the 100% price discovery or simply put, you don't want to attempt to pick tops and bottoms. Even though the market moved well into a potential resistance move higher, I didn't see there being any potential resistance until roughly the 1463 area which was the value high from 9/14.

I've again, circled areas that would have been excellent entry and exit and/or scale out areas. You absolutely had the right idea for responsive selling as did I but you want to make sure the market is exhausted before getting in typically unless there's a clear level of resistance/support.

So, first entry was from the 1st standard deviation level (circled in orange) which should get to the corresponding lower 1st standard deviation level. Then VWAP was the next as value shifted lower and lastly, the lower 1st standard deviation as value shifted even lower. Note, when you see the market held at a 1st standard deviation level like that, it is potentially signaling a good trending situation and the idea would be is to hold on until you hit a big picture target and use the 1st standard deviation level as your trail stop point of reference. If price were to break above the 1st standard deviation level before your target, its possible that the market has either bottomed or topped out relative to the direction of the move.

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Here's the overnight session and RTH session TPOs. Note the spike in the overnight session just before the RTH open. This is also known as a selling tail and can often signal a reversal into the RTH session.

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Here's just the RTH session TPOs. You can see yesterday was an open out of balance with responsive buying. Today was another open out of balance to the upside which was the obvious destination for the market to test after yesterday's failure to find initiative sellers to take the market lower. Today had responsive sellers at the open which pushed the market back into balance and stopped right at yesterday's POC. Perfect afternoon spike.

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Anyway, great job!

Cheers,
PB

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  #53 (permalink)
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Thanks @Private Banker

I havent been posting many of my charts this would have helped one see things clearer, so now I see how it looked to the majority only posting 2hybrid. I was looking at my main larger time frame chart I use when I go for points it has a 1risk to 4 reward target. But with a bigger time frame you cant dial it in as close, yes I could use the small one but I didnt. So the trade was taken because of the move that started on 9/20 @34.50 I knew we were over extended from my larger time frame as there was tell tell I see right before top occurs after a move of this amount, So i entered off of that, the 2 hybrid Vwap is used for Val/Vah and vwap but it has to coincide with other confluences i use, the white line I drew in before price every got to it, if price didnt start its retrace here I was wrong but we were at a point a retracement was inevitable IMO, with no volitity like we ve been having. My target for retracement had two levels which it will always retrace to if first isnt broken strong trend in the same direction will continue, but if 1 st level is broken retrace to my second target will always happen which was at 51.50. Also I had confluence at this level too off of a custom pivot I came up with. So 51.50 was solid target, but my 1st level was at the area I closed, today I wasnt going to take a chance and leave a live trade while I left to go get my daughter from school, bc at this level price could have went back up. And today being options I played it safe bc it was 50%-50% to me in this area. Off my big chart this trade had a 1R to 3 R so i was ready to get paid and after I left I always track with a mobile to see where it is going before I left my drive I knew it was golden. I will review your info over the weekend. My confluences levels that I use I can predict the market fairly well.

You stated in a prior comment to not have set targets but have static I do have these as well that I use to predict market rotation with the ES. I am definitely going to review your charts bc I dont use TPO and in my prior testing they do line up with my confluences too. I ll send you a pm soon. Many Many thx for your reply and the way you replied to me too. Thanks Again R


Last edited by Rad4633; September 21st, 2012 at 07:44 PM.
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  #54 (permalink)
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Thanks for posting. Good info.

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  #55 (permalink)
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captnolikey View Post
Thanks for posting. Good info.

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  #56 (permalink)
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Rad4633 View Post
You stated in a prior comment to not have set targets but have static I do have these as well that I use to predict market rotation with the ES.

Let me clarify this for you. For scaling out of a position, I generally keep them relatively static but they tend to end up on or near key levels. So for example, if I were to get short and want to scale out in 1/3 increments, I would have my first scale at a point or so (ES) as long as its in front of a key level. If there's nothing close to my first scale area and the day's volatility (vol) is wide (wide spread VWAP bands + Value Area), I would increase my scale out targets to be in line with the day's range and risk parameters. I know a static scale works just as well but I tend to deviate from that to capture a higher percentage of the given range. The thought is to match what the vol is while still having attainable targets. Your stop should also be larger on these types of days based on the increased vol. Same goes for narrow vol days. Smaller stops mirrored with smaller scale out targets. Just use the VWAP standard deviation levels and value/poc as a gauge. Make sense?

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  #57 (permalink)
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Private Banker View Post
Let me clarify this for you. For scaling out of a position, I generally keep them relatively static but they tend to end up on or near key levels. So for example, if I were to get short and want to scale out in 1/3 increments, I would have my first scale at a point or so (ES) as long as its in front of a key level. If there's nothing close to my first scale area and the day's volatility (vol) is wide (wide spread VWAP bands + Value Area), I would increase my scale out targets to be in line with the day's range and risk parameters. I know a static scale works just as well but I tend to deviate from that to capture a higher percentage of the given range. The thought is to match what the vol is while still having attainable targets. Your stop should also be larger on these types of days based on the increased vol. Same goes for narrow vol days. Smaller stops mirrored with smaller scale out targets. Just use the VWAP standard deviation levels and value/poc as a gauge. Make sense?

Perfect sense...ty PB enjoy your weekend whichever location ur at I m planning a trip to our mountains soon(Blue Ridge-leaf color changing week) amazing how beautiful mother natures are...Sunsets your way are so soothing.anyhow I better watch or I'll turn this into a nature thread.ty again

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  #58 (permalink)
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Anyone wanting a slick indicator to help show risk to reward you should try this one thx @monpere its very handy

click on link below for download-its only for Ninja
TradeRuler
Search - Big Mike's Trading Forum

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  #59 (permalink)
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This is what we call EXPERIENCE

This comment was made by @tigertrader to another journal I hope its ok to post in mine

THE WORDS OF WISDOM by the one and only Big G Ty

If I'm long and I think the market is going higher, I am looking to add to my position. If I'm short and I think the market is going lower, I am looking to add to my position. Its pretty automatic for me and really doesn't require much conscious thought. The reason that it has become so instinctual is that I know my game. I have a pretty good understanding of current price action and how it relates to the overall context of the market and this allows me to have a gauge on the duration and distance of the trade. Scaling out of a profitable trade, obviously provides the trader with more flexibility and expands his choices. Do I look to add on every trade I make? Of course not. I look to add when conditions have become favorable to support pressing and adding. Nevertheless, it does not mean that it will work. The difference between unsuccessful traders, net-profitable traders, and big money making traders is smaller than you think. It usually boils down to a small but perceptible edge, and while it can be related to poor money management, inadequate knowledge of the market, or a bad methodology, it is usually an internal factor - a lack of: discipline, emotional control, patience, and especially an improper attitude about losing and risk.

Trend days, (in equities) occur only 14% of the time while range days occur 86% of the time. The trick is to be able to identify trend days as early in the trading session as possible and adjust your strategy accordingly. The other 86% of time (majority) you can trade a tight mean reversion strategy.


Last edited by Rad4633; September 24th, 2012 at 01:25 PM.
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  #60 (permalink)
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you dont have to be right all the time to still finish right

sat down @ pc @ 10:30 traded till 3pm done

Note traded off my larger time frame chart used this one as reference

Had high and low targets just traded to them 1 st trade knew i was wrong flipped 2nd was busy did not close out to the good +2 rode back down reacted then had short bias is why I stayed in trade as long as I did, then reacted no emotion just analyze probability of each direction.

This is prime example why one cant over leverage account

after commissions still made 3.25 pts for day

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Last edited by Rad4633; September 24th, 2012 at 04:24 PM.
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