This time like GFIs1's Dax trading journal - as already seen on futures.io (formerly BMT) - a very different trading approach will be on track for testing reasons.
*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL followers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not) ***
That thread has the goal to compare a intraday trading system (like
This is a journal with live trading posts since 2012!
Hi everybody
Thanks BigMike for the invitation to your journal competition - I am taking the rope :-)
For my trading three main points were essential and important
1) Plan your trade and …
) with a swing trading system on the same instrument.
The compared results seen here shall give a hint, how to get the most of market moves under different conditions.
It is all here about the bigger picture - aka trading with nerves stronger than steel ;-)
Got it?
This is a journal with live trading posts since 2012!
Hi everybody
Thanks BigMike for the invitation to your journal competition - I am taking the rope :-)
For my trading three main points were essential and important
1) Plan your trade and …
with exact entry and exit times does not have any influence here.
Second NOTE: The futures traded here can have big impact on your account - please read
I would like to start with a simple statement of the primary idea of this post is to help me. Yes, I said me. I hope it will help you as well, but, to be honest, if it helps me and not you, then I am still happy. :) I can't help you …
first post to get more information as I do not want to repeat warning issues discussed already in other threads on futures.io (formerly BMT).
Trading approach by different types of Traders:
1) Scalping: intraday trading with small gains and tight stops / many trades per day
2) Intraday trading: taking profit on intraday moves, wider stops, looking to get the most out of a move / one to five trades per day
3) Swing trading: waiting for a setup with high probability to let win a trader on a wave during several days - wide stop / one trade per wave.
Several members here on futures.io (formerly BMT) state that swing trading is for experienced traders taking some risk overnight/over weekend etc. only - without a possibility to interfere during these off-times - to cash in the highest possible gain per move/wave.
Here we go:
The Dax BIG MOVE Swing Trade Approach is based on a volume chart instead of a time chart. The chart shows for the
Dax future one candle meaning a cumulated volume of 5'000 contracts before the next candle will be formed.
The moves are outlined by a zigzag indicator (setting: more than 20 bars) to see smaller and bigger waves.
As the small waves end - a signal is generated to enter a trade. The exit is defined by 2,5 to ~3 times the range of the
smaller waves and should (hopefully) cash in some significant points.
These results will be compared with the intraday GFIs1 Dax system - I count two to four comparisons per month.
Let's see how these two systems will gallop in the next weeks :-)
Stay tuned!
GFIs1
The following 9 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
As the 7000 had been passed (was no longer a strong resistance)
I assume to see our first TP soon be reached.
Depending on how fast we reach the first TP - we might "let run" the
second long above the second TP.
This decision is foreseen for end of today or tomorrow. Expecting
a reverse pricing on Wednesday.
TP Decision for the second car - 7130 :-)
Either that region will be reached tomorrow - or the trade will be
closed tomorrow evening - as expectation of a reversal on Wednesday
is still valid.
GFIs1
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Looks like the ambitious TP (of 7130) can not be reached now
Anyway - to forget about the not taken TP2 (@ 7050 which would have been filled yesterday)
we need to get out of the trade with the least damage:
This will happen between 21:00 and 21:30 tonight.
Took a Dax long @ 6898 after that nice retracement from this afternoon.
Looking for some quick points on the "polish day" - the LAST of the month
tomorrow.
Closed the short manually @ breakeven (no points made here).
The setup has changed now - the bearish pressure has gotten weak.
Looking for a new chance soon.
Seems that we have seen the quiet before the storm today - now the bullish scenario
looks on its way.
As the difficulties on the High Court of Germany had been fixed today - the indices are
showing confidence and are pricing in the foreseen decision of the court tomorrow at
10 in the morning.
If everything passes as thought - the price will move up on a higher level.
Looking forward to discuss the stuff soon ;-)
..the Dax move up after the decision (in fact a move after Draghi's speech) over 7400 pulverized my
foreseen turning point of 7366 ;-)
Anyway the "cash in" retracement of today after that bullish move - will holding the long trade til' tomorrow...
Hoping the 7411.5 of today may be pushed a bit further up?
.. but when?
Not much movements this morning.
Some noise after FED decision (18:30) may spike the Dax afterhours again more north.
From 20:00 ("Treasury Budget") some more push..
and on Friday with many results in the pipeline a sudden cold shower (the last one before
US elections) - I assume to get out at around 21:00
Looks like after the days with so many news and numbers the new high is set.
So some retracement for the next few days is due.
I am looking for a good entry to take a new short for four to five days.
From september 22/23 a beginning long period is highly probable...
So the short is only a limited timeframe to look for.
GFIs1
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Bullish moves seem to fade a bit - looks like some consolidation on this level
may happen - til' 7250 to find some support.
From there a new bullish scenario might take over.
All this is speculation out from a chart here - but highly possible.
Have a look! (sorry - second chart text faded too ;-) - said "Probable MOVE"!
GFIs1
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Thanks for the question - that system is very experimental. So I have not foreseen
stop loss markers - but in some cases as long as the original move may happen later
some buy in in the same direction. This case is showed with success in the first trade
where two cars ended quite positive.
Sure - a loss of 200 points is out of range but looking to get the most out of a given
situation is the goal.
Wishing to have a comparable result to my intraday daily system with fixed SL and
exact entry/exit times. For the last three weeks this one here was not to bad
.. the trade must be stopped before the future will be killed tomorrow.
So as we are in that downmove without much movement - we wait til'
tomorrow to close that one ;-)
GFIs1
written - and - down :-)
might eventually reach the original TP of 7250
Price in the daily has reached fib - spiral resistance. (See chart
in message from september 14th)
This looks like some smaller volatilty for this last september week.
Waiting for a new setup to take a trade here - probably from next week though.
GFIs1
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Both contracts are in the positive zone.
As expecting a new peak in the DAX by the end of month out of the daily chart
discussed in the other GFIs1 thread - the positions will be hold til' october 30.
Could not sell the positions in that negative zone end of october.
Today we are back in the break even region.
Expecting another upmove next week after US election (risk of
uncertainty is over). So a new TP has to be calculated by then.
The bigger picture shows still good support underneath and a
new high is highly probable.
The red arrow shows the path of price making higher highs
in the next 10 days.
We have seen Dax price falling and climbing into a deep valley in November.
Now - after starting this trade end of September hoping to see bullish scenario which did not happen,
today the trade is 130 points in plus totally (with the two cars) and sees some year end rally probability.
These longer moves since the start last August have given +500 points. Compared to the daily Dax trade
total of 1'000 points not bad - but with a much greater risk as no stop loss had been set.
Looking forward to see this trade to sum up the total here.
Looking at the results here -five trades are closed and two longs are still open:
The move at the end of the year - at least this year was for a "buy and hold" strategy very successful.
One can always bet to set money on the last quarter of a year on rising stocks and indizes. The probability
seems to be more than 50% for the long side.
If a trader has not much time for successfully day trading every day - a strategy to rest at the sideline
during the year and to profit from the last 3 months of the year and even taking some more risk during
that period looks positive.
Closed the two longs now @ 7595.
Might target higher prices - but in 10 days the rollover will happen - so cashing in
with a nice gain looks not too bad ;-)
First long @ 7406 - exit 7595 gave 189 points
Second long @ 7288 - exit 7595 gave 307 points
Total for this trade: 496 points
Total points since first trade of august 23rd: plus 884
GFIs1
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After closing the two longs - we get a final result for the ~ 3 months playing with the DAX
with a maximum of 2 cars:
This is the last trade on this test for this year - so the points collected are not too bad for
that short period.
Still thinking of large drawdowns in November - we had not set a SL - the outcome was very
good - but capitalization was needed for overnight margin and max. drawdown of two cars
was quite high during November.
GFIs1
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As my BigMove Swing Trade Approach on the Dax had been replaced starting January 2013 -
two new threads are established now. The reason is that movements on the DAX are very
different to movements in the ES. So are the according rules.
These rules are in both threads on the two instruments here
*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not)
but is for testing reasons and discussing results ***
After some experience with the mother thread: and thanks
to input of many readers I decided to separate the thread and focus on the
instrument as the rules will be different and some readers would like to
get "sec" info on their traded instrument.
*** …
Have a look into and any comments are always appreciated!
