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GFIs1 Dax BIG MOVE Swing Trade Approach


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GFIs1 Dax BIG MOVE Swing Trade Approach

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  #1 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Hello Dear Reader

This time like GFIs1's Dax trading journal - as already seen on futures.io (formerly BMT) - a very different trading approach will be on track for testing reasons.

*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL followers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not) ***

That thread has the goal to compare a intraday trading system (like ) with a swing trading system on the same instrument.
The compared results seen here shall give a hint, how to get the most of market moves under different conditions.
It is all here about the bigger picture - aka trading with nerves stronger than steel ;-)
Got it?

Looking back - the with exact entry and exit times does not have any influence here.
Second NOTE: The futures traded here can have big impact on your account - please read first post to get more information as I do not want to repeat warning issues discussed already in other threads on futures.io (formerly BMT).

Trading approach by different types of Traders:
1) Scalping: intraday trading with small gains and tight stops / many trades per day
2) Intraday trading: taking profit on intraday moves, wider stops, looking to get the most out of a move / one to five trades per day
3) Swing trading: waiting for a setup with high probability to let win a trader on a wave during several days - wide stop / one trade per wave.

Several members here on futures.io (formerly BMT) state that swing trading is for experienced traders taking some risk overnight/over weekend etc. only - without a possibility to interfere during these off-times - to cash in the highest possible gain per move/wave.

Here we go:
The Dax BIG MOVE Swing Trade Approach is based on a volume chart instead of a time chart. The chart shows for the
Dax future one candle meaning a cumulated volume of 5'000 contracts before the next candle will be formed.
The moves are outlined by a zigzag indicator (setting: more than 20 bars) to see smaller and bigger waves.
As the small waves end - a signal is generated to enter a trade. The exit is defined by 2,5 to ~3 times the range of the
smaller waves and should (hopefully) cash in some significant points.
These results will be compared with the intraday GFIs1 Dax system - I count two to four comparisons per month.
Let's see how these two systems will gallop in the next weeks :-)

Stay tuned!

GFIs1

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  #3 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Looks good to see a setup for a DAX long in the next 1 to 3 days.
Will underline that with a chart when this possibility shows up.

GFIs1

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  #4 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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To prevent watching the chart all day - I am placing a Dax long order on 6988. Either it is filled
or we need to get the next possibility :-)

GFIs1

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  #5 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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The long was filled at the Buy stop level of 6988.
Some more downtrend is still possible.
So the stops are set wide enough.

Waiting for a positive development.
GFIs1

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  #6 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax scenario as described - here a 5000 Vol Chart of the Dax future.
ZigZag Oscillator - a Reference line where some support should be:



As this support did not hold - I put a second buy stop long on 6912.. lets see

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
...
As this support did not hold - I put a second buy stop long on 6912.. lets see

GFIs1

This buy stop had been filled - medium price of the two longs 6950

GFIs1

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  #8 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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That bullish move brings us quickly into the first TP zone.
TP 1 @ 7032 (POC)
TP 2 @ 7050

Good volume might get us there easily.
If not - we stay in over the weekend ;-)

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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As the 7000 had been passed (was no longer a strong resistance)
I assume to see our first TP soon be reached.
Depending on how fast we reach the first TP - we might "let run" the
second long above the second TP.
This decision is foreseen for end of today or tomorrow. Expecting
a reverse pricing on Wednesday.

GFIs1

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  #10 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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7032 TP 1 reached - first TP was plus 44 points (7032-6988)

Letting the second long riding..

GFIs1

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  #11 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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GFIs1 View Post
As the 7000 had been passed (was no longer a strong resistance)
I assume to see our first TP soon be reached.
Depending on how fast we reach the first TP - we might "let run" the
second long above the second TP.
This decision is foreseen for end of today or tomorrow. Expecting
a reverse pricing on Wednesday.

GFIs1

TP Decision for the second car - 7130 :-)
Either that region will be reached tomorrow - or the trade will be
closed tomorrow evening - as expectation of a reversal on Wednesday
is still valid.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Looks like the ambitious TP (of 7130) can not be reached now
Anyway - to forget about the not taken TP2 (@ 7050 which would have been filled yesterday)
we need to get out of the trade with the least damage:
This will happen between 21:00 and 21:30 tonight.

GFIs1

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  #13 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Second car closed @ 7015
result plus 103 points (7015-6912)

First car plus 44 points

Total points for first trade (2 cars): 147 points

Comment: previewed TP's were very good set - the
higher target for car 2 did not play out (lost 35 real points on this one)

GFIs1

Outlook wednesday - some retracement as described
No trade for this move previewed now.

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 GFIs1 
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Took a Dax long @ 6898 after that nice retracement from this afternoon.
Looking for some quick points on the "polish day" - the LAST of the month
tomorrow.

GFIs1

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  #15 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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If that bullish Dax move works liked planned - a TP of 6996 is set for today.
With this a result of 98 points is in view.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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TP reached
That was fast - result plus 98 points :-)

GFIs1

no trade over the weekend - cu!

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  #17 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Took three Dax cars (in two long trades): totalling 245 points

Result for 23.08.12 to 31.08.12:



GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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The third trade is the first SHORT trade here:
Took a Dax short @ 7000.
Lets see how it plays out...

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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A nice down move going on here..
Let's put a TP @ 6830 - either filled or needing to manually
close the trade.

GFIs1

edit: time window for TP til' wednesday evening

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 loeser 
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I hold it first now to 6881.

Anyway thanks and good analyses and good predictions.

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 GFIs1 
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Closed the short manually @ breakeven (no points made here).
The setup has changed now - the bearish pressure has gotten weak.
Looking for a new chance soon.

GFIs1

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  #22 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Trade four a long again -
entry @ 7212 today
looking to stay in the long up to Thursday - and close that then.
Seeing a reversal probable from Friday.

GFIs1

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  #23 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Seems that we have seen the quiet before the storm today - now the bullish scenario
looks on its way.
As the difficulties on the High Court of Germany had been fixed today - the indices are
showing confidence and are pricing in the foreseen decision of the court tomorrow at
10 in the morning.
If everything passes as thought - the price will move up on a higher level.
Looking forward to discuss the stuff soon ;-)

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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..the Dax move up after the decision (in fact a move after Draghi's speech) over 7400 pulverized my
foreseen turning point of 7366 ;-)
Anyway the "cash in" retracement of today after that bullish move - will holding the long trade til' tomorrow...
Hoping the 7411.5 of today may be pushed a bit further up?

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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.. but when?
Not much movements this morning.
Some noise after FED decision (18:30) may spike the Dax afterhours again more north.
From 20:00 ("Treasury Budget") some more push..
and on Friday with many results in the pipeline a sudden cold shower (the last one before
US elections) - I assume to get out at around 21:00

_____________

No risk - no fun

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Looks not to bad.. scenario as previewed ;-)

Will get out @ 21:20

exit @ 7380 (left some little points on the table)

result plus 168 points

comment...: worked like a charm

total points since august 23rd (four long trades): 413 points
the only short trade was closed @ breakeven

GFIs1

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  #27 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Maybe I forgot to tell that from tomorrow FRIDAY
some downmove is expected here

what are we waiting for???

GFIs1

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  #28 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Some graph to show the missed possibility on the left of the chart and the
taken trade ended yesterday end of session:



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 GFIs1 
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One long trade with a result of 168 points brings as to a total of 413 points.

Result for 23.08.12 to 14.9.12:



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  #30 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Looks like after the days with so many news and numbers the new high is set.
So some retracement for the next few days is due.
I am looking for a good entry to take a new short for four to five days.
From september 22/23 a beginning long period is highly probable...
So the short is only a limited timeframe to look for.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Took a short @ 7395 now.
Next TP is 7250.. - let's go for it :-)

ready to go down - as this scenario was foreseen to happen - a reversal day today..

GFIs1

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  #32 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Bullish moves seem to fade a bit - looks like some consolidation on this level
may happen - til' 7250 to find some support.
From there a new bullish scenario might take over.
All this is speculation out from a chart here - but highly possible.
Have a look! (sorry - second chart text faded too ;-) - said "Probable MOVE"!



GFIs1

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  #33 (permalink)
 uexkuell 
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GFIs1 View Post
Took a short @ 7395 now.
Next TP is 7250.. - let's go for it :-)

ready to go down - as this scenario was foreseen to happen - a reversal day today..

GFIs1

Would you like to say something about stop losses in your system?

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  #34 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Hello @uexkuell

Thanks for the question - that system is very experimental. So I have not foreseen
stop loss markers - but in some cases as long as the original move may happen later
some buy in in the same direction. This case is showed with success in the first trade
where two cars ended quite positive.
Sure - a loss of 200 points is out of range but looking to get the most out of a given
situation is the goal.
Wishing to have a comparable result to my intraday daily system with fixed SL and
exact entry/exit times. For the last three weeks this one here was not to bad

GFIs1

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  #35 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Chewing Gum....

but - still in the game

next move will be clear!

GFIs1

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  #36 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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.. the trade must be stopped before the future will be killed tomorrow.
So as we are in that downmove without much movement - we wait til'
tomorrow to close that one ;-)

GFIs1

written - and - down :-)
might eventually reach the original TP of 7250

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  #37 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax closed @ 7405
result minus 10 points.

Looked like the TP for a short in a bullish up-trend was set to far...

Points since thread start: 388 points in 5 trades

GFIs1

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  #38 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Price in the daily has reached fib - spiral resistance. (See chart
in message from september 14th)
This looks like some smaller volatilty for this last september week.
Waiting for a new setup to take a trade here - probably from next week though.

GFIs1

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  #39 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Taking a small opportunity - Dax long @ 7406 here.
Might give some points in this still bullish scenario.

GFIs1

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  #40 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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To get in long @ a much better point here
took a second long @ 7288.
Medium price of the two longs now 7347.

Lets see where the journey goes.

GFIs1

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  #41 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,419 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,306 given, 11,327 received

Looks like we are in the winning zone again...

..Right now some points in the plus - there is enought possibility to
reach 7400+ soon!
So we stay still awaiting some winning points here.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,419 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,306 given, 11,327 received

Both contracts are in the positive zone.
As expecting a new peak in the DAX by the end of month out of the daily chart
discussed in the other GFIs1 thread - the positions will be hold til' october 30.

Happy trades!

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,419 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,306 given, 11,327 received

Could not sell the positions in that negative zone end of october.
Today we are back in the break even region.
Expecting another upmove next week after US election (risk of
uncertainty is over). So a new TP has to be calculated by then.
The bigger picture shows still good support underneath and a
new high is highly probable.
The red arrow shows the path of price making higher highs
in the next 10 days.



GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,419 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,306 given, 11,327 received

We have seen Dax price falling and climbing into a deep valley in November.
Now - after starting this trade end of September hoping to see bullish scenario which did not happen,
today the trade is 130 points in plus totally (with the two cars) and sees some year end rally probability.
These longer moves since the start last August have given +500 points. Compared to the daily Dax trade
total of 1'000 points not bad - but with a much greater risk as no stop loss had been set.
Looking forward to see this trade to sum up the total here.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,419 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,306 given, 11,327 received

Looking at the results here -five trades are closed and two longs are still open:



The move at the end of the year - at least this year was for a "buy and hold" strategy very successful.
One can always bet to set money on the last quarter of a year on rising stocks and indizes. The probability
seems to be more than 50% for the long side.

If a trader has not much time for successfully day trading every day - a strategy to rest at the sideline
during the year and to profit from the last 3 months of the year and even taking some more risk during
that period looks positive.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,419 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,306 given, 11,327 received

Closed the two longs now @ 7595.
Might target higher prices - but in 10 days the rollover will happen - so cashing in
with a nice gain looks not too bad ;-)

First long @ 7406 - exit 7595 gave 189 points
Second long @ 7288 - exit 7595 gave 307 points
Total for this trade: 496 points

Total points since first trade of august 23rd: plus 884

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,419 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,306 given, 11,327 received

After closing the two longs - we get a final result for the ~ 3 months playing with the DAX
with a maximum of 2 cars:



This is the last trade on this test for this year - so the points collected are not too bad for
that short period.
Still thinking of large drawdowns in November - we had not set a SL - the outcome was very
good - but capitalization was needed for overnight margin and max. drawdown of two cars
was quite high during November.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor/RT
Broker: IB / DTN
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 5,419 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 5,306 given, 11,327 received

Go for the better

As my BigMove Swing Trade Approach on the Dax had been replaced starting January 2013 -
two new threads are established now. The reason is that movements on the DAX are very
different to movements in the ES. So are the according rules.

These rules are in both threads on the two instruments here

Main thread for the DAX:


Main thread for ES mini:


Have a look into and any comments are always appreciated!

Good trades
GFIs1

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futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > GFIs1 Dax BIG MOVE Swing Trade Approach


Last Updated on May 13, 2013


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