Beginners Trading Journal - futures io
futures io



Beginners Trading Journal


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one 223552 with 63 posts (57 thanks)
    2. looks_two Silver Dragon with 4 posts (5 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Fourwedge with 3 posts (2 thanks)
    4. looks_4 DropD with 2 posts (1 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Silver Dragon with 1.3 thanks per post
    2. looks_two 223552 with 0.9 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Fourwedge with 0.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 DropD with 0.5 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 8,507 views
    2. thumb_up 67 thanks given
    3. group 11 followers
    1. forum 77 posts
    2. attach_file 142 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Beginners Trading Journal

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Hi All,

I am a beginner trader, and wanted to share some of my recent trades. I am hoping to get some feedback, and share my thoughts. I am going to try to update with all new trades, but since i can only go over charts outside my full-time job, I only tend to do a couple of trades a week. I decided to trade with real money, as I think it will force me to manage my stops better. So far my P/L is $-500. Doing small trades to minimise losses, profits can come when I regularly pick winners (which seems like it will never happen...)

I am in Australia, so most of my trades are on ASX. I started doing regular trading from beginning of July 2012, and since I have only learned (still learning) charting, most of my trades are based on basic charting principles.

So here we go, On 13/8/12 I went 500 shares short on APA (APA Gas) at $4.72, The attached daily chart showed a break through a support line on Friday 10/08/12. My initial stop loss was the high of 10/8/12 of 4.75, and my target was around 4.40-4.45 ( based on the peaks around $5.10-5.20, and using them in reverse to give me a target range), a good risk/reward ratio.

For the next few days the stock traded under the 4.75 resistance line, and started to edge lower. Yesterday, for the first half of the day, the stock traded mainly between $4.69-4.67, mostly sitting on $4.67 and not going up much, which in my opinion showed further consolidation, before moving further down, so I added to my position and shorted another 500 shares at around $4.68. In the afternoon an announcement came out, and stock went down to $4.57, and closed on the day at $4.62. For the first time a stock behaved as I was hoping it will, and I read it correctly and added to my position. It felt really good!!!!

Since I am a newbie, I cant post links to charts, to show what I mean.... :-((

Today, the stock opened a few cents up, but there was strong volume coming in, and kept pushing it up. When it was touching 4.68, my plan was to wait for reversal, and go short again, as it would been confirming new resistance. More volume started to come in, and kept pushing it up. Once it went over 4.70, I closed half of my position as it looked like it was gathering strength. I was still hoping it was just a spike, and if it went down bellow 4.68, i would have gone short again. Instead it started consolidating around 4.70-4.72, and I closed my position, when started hitting 4.73. Total loss of about $40. As I am writing this, the stock is sitting on $4.80! Another looser to add to a growing list....For a moment, I actually thought, that this will finally play out as expected.... I guess next time.. I will still watch this stock, as it may continue down soon.
From fundamental side of things, APA was one of two bidders for another company, and it looks like the market did not like it. (Stock gradually going down past few weeks). Yesterday APA increased its offer, and this morning the other bidder withdrew.


Stock number 2.
Mirvac Group (MGR)
Long term resistance at around $1.33, broke through on 27/7/12, and has come back twice to retest it, this seem like consolidation, before a move up (hopefully), bought on 15/8/12 on a retest of support line. Stop at the moment is a close bellow support line at $1.33. Target is $1.50. Today still sitting on $1.35, there seem to be strong support around this level, if i start seeing more weakness, and moves down to 1.33, I may exit earlier.


So here is my 5c worth :-), I am open to any suggestions, or advice.

Cheers,

Felix

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:

Journal Challenge April 2021 results (now extended!):
Competing for $1800 in prizes from Jigsaw
looks_oneMaking a Living with the Microsby sstheo
(301 thanks from 28 posts)
looks_twoSalao's Journalby Salao
(74 thanks from 13 posts)
looks_3Deetee’s DAX Trading Journal (time based)by Deetee
(50 thanks from 20 posts)
looks_4Learning to Profit - A journey in algorithms and optionsby Syntax
(37 thanks from 16 posts)
looks_5Maybe a little bit different journalby Malykubo
(17 thanks from 18 posts)
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
122 thanks
Big Mike in Ecuador
60 thanks
Help improve the FIO community
38 thanks
Next New Poll Ideas/Suggestions
16 thanks
futures io site changelog and issues/problem reporting
16 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,013 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,472 given, 98,311 received



223552 View Post
Since I am a newbie, I cant post links to charts, to show what I mean.... :-((

Attach charts instead of linking to external image sites and it will work fine.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Thanks Mike!,

I have now attached 2 charts. One for APA, and the other is MGR

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	APA DAILY.JPG
Views:	119
Size:	108.1 KB
ID:	85898   Click image for larger version

Name:	MGR.JPG
Views:	106
Size:	124.4 KB
ID:	85899  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Another position I have open at the moment is CSR. It has been in a long down trend for nearly 2 years, and resistance line was touched a number of times, making it fairly significant. It broke through the resistance on 10/08/12 and also closed above the resistance line that day. I entered long the following day at $1.42, with my stop being a close bellow the low of 10/08/12, which is $1.365. I am not completely confident with this trade, as I have noticed that sloping resistance/support lines often have false break-outs, and in this case, I do not have a clear target. I have set my target at $1.70-1.80, there seems to be a support around that level between Feb - May 2012 (chart attached). It is also a significant low from March 2009.

Today I also went long on a Mini AUS/USD 1 contract at $1.444.
On the chart I have drawn the resistance line at approx $1.044. This line was broken on 27/7/12, and then retested on 2/8/12. If i saw that trade, I would have gone long with a stop of 27/7/12 low at $1.038. I would have moved my stop to support line after it was retested, and I would have been stopped out on 17/08/12 with a close bellow support line. However, the stock has gone up above that support line, and I think it is still a long trade. My stop will be a daily close bellow the support line of $1.044. My target is $1.07
Chart attached.

Cheers

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	csr.JPG
Views:	60
Size:	114.2 KB
ID:	86117   Click image for larger version

Name:	aus usd.JPG
Views:	56
Size:	114.0 KB
ID:	86118  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Whenever I go into a position with my broker, I have to set a stop somewhere, so that my margin to trade is reduced. It also protects my capital if things go against me very quickly. The downside of this, I could be stopped out of a trade prematurely on intra day swings of the instrument I trade. I went long on AUS/USD Mini, I had to set a stop loss somewhere, so I had it set on $1.043 which is slightly higher than a previous low swing. 30 minutes after I placed my trade, the pair went down to $1.428, and took me out of my position (-$20). Sometimes it feels like there is someone on the other side of the market specifically playing against you ......:-)
Over night, the pair traded strongly up, and closed well above my support line of $1.444. I am still looking at, and if I see an opportunity, I will try going long again.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

AUS/USD

The pair has closed bellow my s/r line of 1.044 on Thursday. I did not see an opportunity to go long, and so I did not have a position. The following day, it closed further bellow $1.044. Since its closed bellow my s/r $1.044, I may actually look to go short on this trade, if i see a retest of $1.044, I could also consider a long position, if the price goes above $1.044, but I will need some confirmation on either side of the trade If the stock goes down, it may go to $1.02, this level has been touched many times over the past 2-3 years. For now I will stay away from this pair, until I can see something that makes sense to me.

I have done my weekly scan, and have come up with a dozen of stocks, I will next, assess each stock in details on weekly and daily charts to see if there is a major s/r line developing or been broken. ALL ORDS (ASX) has been going up strongly for nearly 2 months, and has broken a major resistance line drawn from the peak of 2007. As the result there are many stock that have gone up strongly, and reaching/or crossed some major s/r lines. I think I will trade some stocks that are showing potential over the next week. However, theis could be a false breakout, and everything can start going down again.

I will post any new trades I make next week. My previous positions are still open.

At the end of next week I will also post my monthly P?L, as well as all the stats in regards to my trades.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	aus usd.JPG
Views:	55
Size:	127.2 KB
ID:	86660   Click image for larger version

Name:	allords.JPG
Views:	45
Size:	136.9 KB
ID:	86661  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

On Monday I opened another 3 positions. I do a manual scan at the moment. my basic scan criterias are average volume > 300000 shares, and price over $1. Basically I am after reasonably sized, and liquid stock. This is a very time consuming process, as I end up with a list of about 200 stock. I then go through each chart to see if anything catches my attention, I then go through it in details. This process takes 2-3 hours at least, and some weeks I do not get to do it. I did my scan on the weekend, and had a list of about 10-12 stocks. 3 of them I missed, as they made big moves the week before, Lesson here: stick to your plan!
The 3 stocks that I opened are:
FMG (Fortescue Metals), strong resistance at $4 on a weekly chart (attached), and also confirmed on a daily chart, there potentially was also a head/shoulder pattern on a daily chart as well, which could have got me into the trade earlier. I went short 200 on Monday at $4.04. The stock closed bellow $4 on Fri 24th Aug at $3.98. My stop loss was high of Friday which was $4.09. Potentially there was an earlier trade when the neck line was broken on Fri 20th July. I would have placed a stop the high of previous day at $4.55, which was not touched. In the last 2 days the stock has moved down sharply, and I have moved my stop to $4, being s/r line for now. My target is $3.35, just above the previous low of $3.28 from May 2010.

SHL (Sonic Health)

There has been major s/r line at $12.86 for over 12 months on both weekly/daily charts, it was broken on 16/8/12 (arrow 1), and I did not see it. If I saw it I would have taken a position , with a stop being that days low 12.62. The stock went up, and then retraced close to the stop level, and went up again over the s/r line. I took it as confirmation of s/r line, and took a long position of 100 shares on Mon 27/8/12 at $13.10. Stop being $12.62 for now. Target is $15 based on previous lows of $11.

BRU ( Buru Energy)
S/r line at $2.85, The stock stopped at it on Fri 25/8/12, On monday it moved down sharply on Monday, and I got scared of missing out, and jumped in at $2.82, shorting 250 shares. I should have never done that and waited for a daily close bellow my s/r line as I was suppose to. The stock was volatile that day and fluctuated between $2.86 and $2.76, luckily for me it closed at $2.80, bellow my s/r line, and I had a position established as I wanted. My stop is $2.86, and target is $2.30, which is a low from May 2012.

I got stopped out of MGR as it closed bellow s/r of $2.33, loss $10-15

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	fmg weekly.JPG
Views:	45
Size:	101.0 KB
ID:	87035   Click image for larger version

Name:	fmg daily.JPG
Views:	52
Size:	110.5 KB
ID:	87036   Click image for larger version

Name:	shl.JPG
Views:	39
Size:	118.0 KB
ID:	87037   Click image for larger version

Name:	BRU.JPG
Views:	37
Size:	94.5 KB
ID:	87038  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Been wanting to post for a while now, but home computer issues prevented me from it ( Belkin Router sucks!!!)
I will update my trades first, then go through August statistics

On 3/9/12 I got stopped out of BRU as it had a massive intraday swing and got stopped out on protective stop loss at $2.85 , -$22 On the chart E is for entry, S is for stop

CSR got stopped out at $1.34, never felt comfortable with that trade -$56, was a big loss, aim now to minimise losses as much as possible

FMG , Finally a winner!!! First stock that reached its target, on 5/9/12 opened below my target level of $3.35 and was automatically sold at $3.21 +$150!!

5/9/12 Bought TGA as it broke out from s/r at $1.78, its a second break in less than 2 weeks, first one fell back quickly. Unfortunately on 6/9/12 it had a big swing to the downside and stopped me out at $1.77, only to go up and close at $1.83 today. I think it is going up, but I do not want to chase it. If i missed it, then just let it go, and look for another trade.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	BRU.JPG
Views:	64
Size:	91.7 KB
ID:	88182   Click image for larger version

Name:	csr.JPG
Views:	39
Size:	97.3 KB
ID:	88183   Click image for larger version

Name:	fmg.JPG
Views:	38
Size:	101.1 KB
ID:	88184   Click image for larger version

Name:	TGA.JPG
Views:	41
Size:	102.3 KB
ID:	88185  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 Kingpin 
copenhagen denmark
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 41 since Aug 2011


analysis is too poor. Read more into the market

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

August statistics
Pretty miserable performance, but a few very valuable lessons learnt.

Total loss $317.5, Comission $136 Total -$463.5

Total Trades (Closed Positions) 16
Winners 3
Losers 13
Winning % 23%
Average win $21.44
Average Loss $29
Number of Stupid Trades 5 (none winners, all losers)
Average loss per trade $56
Scalping Trades 5 2 winners/3 losers
Average win/loss $5/$6

If i was to follow my initial objective of trading major breakout patterns with good money management, then my monthly table should have looked like this

total trades 6
winners 1
losers 5
average win $54
average loss $28

Stupid Trades - Trades entered on emotional basis, with no clear objective on stops/price targets. Most of my have been large intraday swings where I though I will catch a wave, and make some quick money...Big lesson here - this is called gambling...

This rate of loss is unacceptable for me right now, I can not afford to loose that much every month.
I can now see why only 5-10% of all people that start trading, become consistently profitable and professional traders. It is hard work, and all you get is to see initially, is your money slowly disappearing.

However, I choose to see it differently. This is money spent on my education. I am paying the market for teaching me. And on average I spend 10-15 hours / week on share trading, thats 60 hrs week, and I paid $ 463 !
that is less than $8 per hour!

Lessons:
1. NO STUPID TRADES!!! no more stupid trades, if a stock moves before you get a chance to get in, just leave it, dont chase it.
2. Don't try a pick bottoms/tops
3. Stick to stops
4. Dont pre-empt a move, wait for a signal
5. Make the trade as soon as signal appears, dont wait for multiple confirmations (retests of s/r seem to not go anywhere afterwards....)
6. Reduce position sizes to minimise loses

Lets hope for a better September

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Kingpin View Post
analysis is too poor. Read more into the market

Hi Kingpin,

I am open to suggestions. Since I am starting from scratch, I am learning about the basic charts, and only now starting to read about volumes, and retracements (33%/50%/66%)

Thanks

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

TGA got stopped me out on a big intraday swing, only to go up, and up ..... Frustrating, but nothing I can do...

On 10/9/12 Went short on LEI (Leighton) it has closed bellow a very long term s/r of 15.29, dating back from Dec 08 (not on the chart), I missed the move during the week, as I do my scans on Weekened. Got in on Monday @$15.21 for 50shares, target $10. Stop is the High of 4/9/12 which was the day before it broke through s/r line.

CTX went long 60 shares at $16.19 on 10/9/12, on friday 7/9/12 it closed above s/r line of $16.13. Stop is low of 7/9/12 at $15.83. Target $20. Looking back at it now, not certain it was a good trade, since s/r line is drawn from 1 peak only. Next time will try and make a trade when s/r been touched at least twice.

WDC (westfield group)
On wed 5/9/12 broke through s/r at $10.27, since i didnt see it till weekend, I went long on Monday 10/9/12 @10.15 when the stock was pulling back. My stop was low of 5/9/12 of $10.13. WDC closed bellow that on that same day, and was sold the next day at @10.04 -$27

One more stock I forgot to mention previously was WES (Wesfarmers)
Went long on 4//12 at $35.05 when the stock broke through a long term s/r at $34.79, it moved up quickly to nearly touch $36, then been drifting slowly back, and I got stopped out on 11/9/12 at $34.63. My stop loss was $34.55 which was a low of 4/9/12. However, on a daily chart I notice considerable support around $34.70 (close to s/r line) on 11/9/12 The stock went bellow $34.70, and stayed there for most of the day, with spikes to $34.80-$34.90. To me it was an indication that support was breached and I got out at$34.63 The stock closed around $34.80 that day, but next day opened $.40 lower.. -$39







Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	wes.JPG
Views:	39
Size:	120.5 KB
ID:	88752  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

12/9/12

Past 1-2 weeks have on average 5-8 open positions, starting to get a bit difficult to keep track of them all. Will try and stay under 8 open positions at a time for now.

My current positions
BWP Went long on 6/9/12 400 shares at $2.02, with stop of $1.97. Broke through s/r of $2. However, looking back at it a few days later, I think correct s/r is $2.04, which are the peaks from March/July 2010. Looking back over the trades a few days later, seems to be very beneficial (learning lots from it). I am in the trade already, so might as well sit it out. Stop is $1.97 The stock has been sitting under $2 now for a few days....

CTX sitting on what I bought it at

GWA on 12/9/12 went short 200 shares @$1.855, on Monday it closed bellow s/r of $1.89, I should have entered it on tuesday, but did not get around to it. This is one thing I am working on now, As soon as signal appears - open the trade. Stop is $1.91 from 10/9/12 high. Target is $1.70, which is also a dip in March 2009

LEI sitting on what I bought it at, has had a big day down early in the week, but recovered yesterday (retest??)

NUF ( Nufarm) on 21/8/12 broke through s/r at $5.80, for some reason I did not see it till early September, and
4/9/12 went long 100 shares @5.87, with stop of $5.69 being low of 21/8/12. The stock has been moving up , and broek through another s/r at $6, I was considering adding to the position, but chickened out.... Something to work on, it has been steadily climbing, and my stop now is $5.90. Target possibly $8

OSH (Oil Search) 12/9/12 closed above s/r of 7.60 . I bought it on the same day, just befoe the close, and stop is $7.53, target $8.4-8.60, it also reached a new high on 12/11/12.

ORG (Origin) I have previously lost money on this stock, when I did "stupid trade" trying to catch a wave down.
It has previously closed bellow s/r at $12.08, went down, then went back up above the s/r, and has slowly been pulling back. I went short 100 shares at $11.9 when it closed bellow s/r line for the second time. Not very comfortable with this trade, as this could be a double bottom, and start a reversal back up. Will keep a very tight stop loss on it, and if it closes bellow recent spike down, I may add to my position. Target $10

SHL slowly progressing up, and has already paid a dividend of $35, stop loss moved to $13.27, which a recent top, and seems to be resistance from past week.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	BWP.JPG
Views:	52
Size:	101.1 KB
ID:	88758   Click image for larger version

Name:	gwa.JPG
Views:	44
Size:	97.8 KB
ID:	88759   Click image for larger version

Name:	nuf.JPG
Views:	51
Size:	95.7 KB
ID:	88760   Click image for larger version

Name:	osh.JPG
Views:	45
Size:	93.3 KB
ID:	88761   Click image for larger version

Name:	org.JPG
Views:	58
Size:	102.3 KB
ID:	88762  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TastyWorks
Broker: TastyWorks
Trading: FX, Stocks, Options
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,012 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 5,770 given, 4,888 received


223552 View Post
Hi All,

I am a beginner trader, and wanted to share some of my recent trades. I am hoping to get some feedback, and share my thoughts. I am going to try to update with all new trades, but since i can only go over charts outside my full-time job, I only tend to do a couple of trades a week. I decided to trade with real money, as I think it will force me to manage my stops better. So far my P/L is $-500. Doing small trades to minimise losses, profits can come when I regularly pick winners (which seems like it will never happen...)

I am in Australia, so most of my trades are on ASX. I started doing regular trading from beginning of July 2012, and since I have only learned (still learning) charting, most of my trades are based on basic charting principles.

So here we go, On 13/8/12 I went 500 shares short on APA (APA Gas) at $4.72, The attached daily chart showed a break through a support line on Friday 10/08/12. My initial stop loss was the high of 10/8/12 of 4.75, and my target was around 4.40-4.45 ( based on the peaks around $5.10-5.20, and using them in reverse to give me a target range), a good risk/reward ratio.

For the next few days the stock traded under the 4.75 resistance line, and started to edge lower. Yesterday, for the first half of the day, the stock traded mainly between $4.69-4.67, mostly sitting on $4.67 and not going up much, which in my opinion showed further consolidation, before moving further down, so I added to my position and shorted another 500 shares at around $4.68. In the afternoon an announcement came out, and stock went down to $4.57, and closed on the day at $4.62. For the first time a stock behaved as I was hoping it will, and I read it correctly and added to my position. It felt really good!!!!

Since I am a newbie, I cant post links to charts, to show what I mean.... :-((

Today, the stock opened a few cents up, but there was strong volume coming in, and kept pushing it up. When it was touching 4.68, my plan was to wait for reversal, and go short again, as it would been confirming new resistance. More volume started to come in, and kept pushing it up. Once it went over 4.70, I closed half of my position as it looked like it was gathering strength. I was still hoping it was just a spike, and if it went down bellow 4.68, i would have gone short again. Instead it started consolidating around 4.70-4.72, and I closed my position, when started hitting 4.73. Total loss of about $40. As I am writing this, the stock is sitting on $4.80! Another looser to add to a growing list....For a moment, I actually thought, that this will finally play out as expected.... I guess next time.. I will still watch this stock, as it may continue down soon.
From fundamental side of things, APA was one of two bidders for another company, and it looks like the market did not like it. (Stock gradually going down past few weeks). Yesterday APA increased its offer, and this morning the other bidder withdrew.


Stock number 2.
Mirvac Group (MGR)
Long term resistance at around $1.33, broke through on 27/7/12, and has come back twice to retest it, this seem like consolidation, before a move up (hopefully), bought on 15/8/12 on a retest of support line. Stop at the moment is a close bellow support line at $1.33. Target is $1.50. Today still sitting on $1.35, there seem to be strong support around this level, if i start seeing more weakness, and moves down to 1.33, I may exit earlier.


So here is my 5c worth :-), I am open to any suggestions, or advice.

Cheers,

Felix

Hi Felix (@223552),

Couple of thoughts, observations and suggestions as I was reading through your posts. I am seeing a lot of low price stocks. This is a red flag for me. There is a reason they are priced around the dollar: They are not stable companies and prone to erratic moves. You should try to go with higher price stocks with less shares. I will try to explain why below.

Take the example of MGR which is at 1.33 and target 1.50. The 17cent profit is equal to a 12% move.

For this example lets assume you bought a 1000 shares

1000 shares x 1.33 = 1330

Lets also assume bad news comes out for the company overnight, and I have been holding shares which have done this, and the price drops to .75

1000 shares x .75 = 750
44% loss


Lets take a higher priced stock we will call it ABC and its priced @ 50.

26 shares * 50 a share = 1300

a 50 dollar stock taking the same 44% hit would have to drop to 28.

This could happen but is less likely to happen because if the stock if the stock is priced @50 the company is presumably more stable.

The reason I bought low priced stocks was because I felt powerful that I could buy a 1000 shares of a stock and for whatever reason I had it in my head that lower was safer because , well it was low priced! What I didnt realize is the same % moves produce the same results.

1000 x 1.00 = 1000
1.00 x 20% move = 1.20
1000 x 1.20 = 1200

20 shares x 50 = 1000
50 x 20% move = 60
20 x 60 = 1200.


The argument I made was well a low price stock can double overnight, Yes this is true but it can also be cut in half overnight. Established companies with high stock prices have a less chance of being split in half. Plus they actually move because institutions buy them.

I would also make this argument: a 1 dollar move in a 50 dollar stock is a 2% move. 1 dollar move on a one dollar stock is a 100% move. Which of the two is more likely to happen?

I was also reading in another post where you bought a stock @ 35.05 (i think) and it went to 36 then retraced and you took a loss. The 95 cent move was a 2% move. I would have sold around 36 and moved my stop to break even when it reached 35.75.

I think you should go for smaller gains with higher priced stocks until you get a method down. This will limit the whipsaws of the market stopping you out.

Many of your posts remind of my journal when I first started. By the time I figure the above out it was too late. I hope you can learn from my mistakes.

If have rambled incoherently please let me know and I will clarify. I also considered after writing this you may have a completely sound and logical reason why you trade low priced stocks, but, since I have it already written, well.. here it is.

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Silver Dragon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TastyWorks
Broker: TastyWorks
Trading: FX, Stocks, Options
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,012 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 5,770 given, 4,888 received

Felix, (@223552)

Consider using support and resistance and trend lines. I think you are picking good charts you are just not entering in the right spot and not placing your stop out of harms way.

I have attached a chart as an example. In this trade you could have entered in a couple of spots near where you did then you could have placed the stop below the trend line. This would have kept you in the trade.

Robert


nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Silver Dragon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 DropD 
Western Slope+Colorado/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Broker: NinaTrader Brokerage, Interactive Brokers
Trading: Coffee
 
DropD's Avatar
 
Posts: 22 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 39 given, 28 received


223552 View Post
12/9/12

Past 1-2 weeks have on average 5-8 open positions, starting to get a bit difficult to keep track of them all. Will try and stay under 8 open positions at a time for now.

My current positions
BWP Went long on 6/9/12 400 shares at $2.02, with stop of $1.97. Broke through s/r of $2. However, looking back at it a few days later, I think correct s/r is $2.04, which are the peaks from March/July 2010. Looking back over the trades a few days later, seems to be very beneficial (learning lots from it). I am in the trade already, so might as well sit it out. Stop is $1.97 The stock has been sitting under $2 now for a few days....

CTX sitting on what I bought it at

GWA on 12/9/12 went short 200 shares @$1.855, on Monday it closed bellow s/r of $1.89, I should have entered it on tuesday, but did not get around to it. This is one thing I am working on now, As soon as signal appears - open the trade. Stop is $1.91 from 10/9/12 high. Target is $1.70, which is also a dip in March 2009

LEI sitting on what I bought it at, has had a big day down early in the week, but recovered yesterday (retest??)

NUF ( Nufarm) on 21/8/12 broke through s/r at $5.80, for some reason I did not see it till early September, and
4/9/12 went long 100 shares @5.87, with stop of $5.69 being low of 21/8/12. The stock has been moving up , and broek through another s/r at $6, I was considering adding to the position, but chickened out.... Something to work on, it has been steadily climbing, and my stop now is $5.90. Target possibly $8

OSH (Oil Search) 12/9/12 closed above s/r of 7.60 . I bought it on the same day, just befoe the close, and stop is $7.53, target $8.4-8.60, it also reached a new high on 12/11/12.

ORG (Origin) I have previously lost money on this stock, when I did "stupid trade" trying to catch a wave down.
It has previously closed bellow s/r at $12.08, went down, then went back up above the s/r, and has slowly been pulling back. I went short 100 shares at $11.9 when it closed bellow s/r line for the second time. Not very comfortable with this trade, as this could be a double bottom, and start a reversal back up. Will keep a very tight stop loss on it, and if it closes bellow recent spike down, I may add to my position. Target $10

SHL slowly progressing up, and has already paid a dividend of $35, stop loss moved to $13.27, which a recent top, and seems to be resistance from past week.

Here's my 2 cents worth. Instead of spending so much time doing market scans looking for the "Next Big Stock" maybe try to pick just a couple of stocks you have some interest in and follow them. See how they react near support and resistance areas. If you can, try to watch them in live market hours. You will eventually become proficient trading a single stock. If you can trade one stock successfully, you will more than likely be able to trade anything you want in the future!

Regards,

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to DropD for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Silver Dragon View Post
Hi Felix (@223552),

Couple of thoughts, observations and suggestions as I was reading through your posts. I am seeing a lot of low price stocks. This is a red flag for me. There is a reason they are priced around the dollar: They are not stable companies and prone to erratic moves. You should try to go with higher price stocks with less shares. I will try to explain why below.

Take the example of MGR which is at 1.33 and target 1.50. The 17cent profit is equal to a 12% move.

For this example lets assume you bought a 1000 shares

1000 shares x 1.33 = 1330

Lets also assume bad news comes out for the company overnight, and I have been holding shares which have done this, and the price drops to .75

1000 shares x .75 = 750
44% loss


Lets take a higher priced stock we will call it ABC and its priced @ 50.

26 shares * 50 a share = 1300

a 50 dollar stock taking the same 44% hit would have to drop to 28.

This could happen but is less likely to happen because if the stock if the stock is priced @50 the company is presumably more stable.

The reason I bought low priced stocks was because I felt powerful that I could buy a 1000 shares of a stock and for whatever reason I had it in my head that lower was safer because , well it was low priced! What I didnt realize is the same % moves produce the same results.

1000 x 1.00 = 1000
1.00 x 20% move = 1.20
1000 x 1.20 = 1200

20 shares x 50 = 1000
50 x 20% move = 60
20 x 60 = 1200.


The argument I made was well a low price stock can double overnight, Yes this is true but it can also be cut in half overnight. Established companies with high stock prices have a less chance of being split in half. Plus they actually move because institutions buy them.

I would also make this argument: a 1 dollar move in a 50 dollar stock is a 2% move. 1 dollar move on a one dollar stock is a 100% move. Which of the two is more likely to happen?

I was also reading in another post where you bought a stock @ 35.05 (i think) and it went to 36 then retraced and you took a loss. The 95 cent move was a 2% move. I would have sold around 36 and moved my stop to break even when it reached 35.75.

I think you should go for smaller gains with higher priced stocks until you get a method down. This will limit the whipsaws of the market stopping you out.

Many of your posts remind of my journal when I first started. By the time I figure the above out it was too late. I hope you can learn from my mistakes.

If have rambled incoherently please let me know and I will clarify. I also considered after writing this you may have a completely sound and logical reason why you trade low priced stocks, but, since I have it already written, well.. here it is.

Robert


Thanks for your reply Robert. I completely agree that lower priced stock can have bigger swings, and more likely to cause bigger losses. Because I trade ASX only (Australian shares), and my scanning criteria are stocks above $1, and minimum average daily volume of 300000, I get less than 200 stock on my scan, out of those, I only get less than 10-15 that are showing trading opportunity. ASX is not a huge market, and a lot of stocks are priced much lower compare to US. As an example there are no stocks on ASX that are priced over $100, and only 2 priced over $50. So stocks over $1 include well know/ blue chip companies. I may tweak my scan and may be run 2 scan separately. 1. stocks between $1-5 with much higher daily average volume, to only show me stocks that are very liquid, and less likely to have wild swings. The second scan for stocks over $5

For interest purposes, latest MGR chart....... I got stopped out on 27/8/12 when it closed at $1.325 , bellow my s/r of $1.33. Today its closed at $1.425

My aim at the moment is to practice entry signals, enter on them , and stick to my stops!!! My biggest losses in the past have always been due to not hitting my stops. So if I have set a stop for myself, I want to make sure I hit them always. At the moment it does seem that my stops are stopping me out of trades prematurely, and I miss the big moves.....

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	mgr.JPG
Views:	48
Size:	100.4 KB
ID:	88804  
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Silver Dragon View Post
Felix, (@223552)

Consider using support and resistance and trend lines. I think you are picking good charts you are just not entering in the right spot and not placing your stop out of harms way.

I have attached a chart as an example. In this trade you could have entered in a couple of spots near where you did then you could have placed the stop below the trend line. This would have kept you in the trade.

Robert


Hi Robert,

Thanks for your time and opinion. I have a few questions in regards to your analysis, if you don't mind. I have attached 2 charts for TGA, one is current chart, and the second one is zoomed in on the period where you suggested I should have bought, but I scrolled it back a few days, not to show what happened later.

So looking on the second chart, the stock broke through a long term s/r, then closes bellow it, could be seen as a false break out. It then comes back up to test the s/r and falls back. This would reinforce my first opinion that it is a false breakout. So if I was going to go long on it, I definitely want to see some real support above the $1.78.
The possible mistake I see with this trade, was me prematurely hitting a stop loss before the close of the day, of 6/9/12. If I waited that day out, the stock closed above s/r line and then headed higher.

I would like to know your opinion on why you would be buying this stock bellow s/r after a failed break out?? without seeing small support line develop under the 2 bottoms, where would you put a stop, and what would you base it on??

I have looked at channels/trend lines before, but at the moment I am finding them unreliable for entry signals/stops. I do look at them, and use them to help identify a trend.

Thanks again.

Felix

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	TGA daily.JPG
Views:	46
Size:	103.8 KB
ID:	88814   Click image for larger version

Name:	tga zoom.JPG
Views:	38
Size:	108.3 KB
ID:	88815  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


GrandSuperCycle View Post
Here's my 2 cents worth. Instead of spending so much time doing market scans looking for the "Next Big Stock" maybe try to pick just a couple of stocks you have some interest in and follow them. See how they react near support and resistance areas. If you can, try to watch them in live market hours. You will eventually become proficient trading a single stock. If you can trade one stock successfully, you will more than likely be able to trade anything you want in the future!

Regards,

Thanks Grand.

Watching stocks intra day is not possible with full time paid work/my own business ....:-)
I dont mind doing weekly scans, it not only exposes me to a greater variety of stocks, but also gives me an idea ofwhat the general market is doing, (stocks moving up, down, sideways...)

Another reason why I am not sticking to one stock, is probably impatience...With one/few stocks there are less trading opportunities.. However, I do one exercise for myself, where I will pick a stock/or currency, scroll back 1-3 years, and then slowly scroll forward one day at a time, and try to do theoretical trading based on what I see on the chart. Funnily enough, I come up in profit most of the time. BUT, over a period of 1-2 yrs, I might do 5 trades for that stock, and first four might be losses, and then the fifth one is the big winner, that takes care of all the losses combined, and gives a profit as well. But, if i was trading real life, I would probably give up after 2-3 losses....

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TastyWorks
Broker: TastyWorks
Trading: FX, Stocks, Options
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,012 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 5,770 given, 4,888 received


223552 View Post
Hi Robert,

Thanks for your time and opinion. I have a few questions in regards to your analysis, if you don't mind. I have attached 2 charts for TGA, one is current chart, and the second one is zoomed in on the period where you suggested I should have bought, but I scrolled it back a few days, not to show what happened later.

So looking on the second chart, the stock broke through a long term s/r, then closes bellow it, could be seen as a false break out. It then comes back up to test the s/r and falls back. This would reinforce my first opinion that it is a false breakout. So if I was going to go long on it, I definitely want to see some real support above the $1.78.
The possible mistake I see with this trade, was me prematurely hitting a stop loss before the close of the day, of 6/9/12. If I waited that day out, the stock closed above s/r line and then headed higher.

I would like to know your opinion on why you would be buying this stock bellow s/r after a failed break out?? without seeing small support line develop under the 2 bottoms, where would you put a stop, and what would you base it on??

I have looked at channels/trend lines before, but at the moment I am finding them unreliable for entry signals/stops. I do look at them, and use them to help identify a trend.

Thanks again.

Felix

See the markups on the chart. On a gap up (false breakout) the stock generally fills the gap, which this one did, before continuing higher. A downward trend line was formed from the gap up. I would have bought on the break above this line. The stop should be put below the trend line. in this case there was a new trend line formed (see blue line). I would have put the stop a nickle below it.

When it filled in the gap it formed a double bottom. This is a bullish sign. I still would have bought here I would have waited for the trend line break.

The key to trading is knowing where price is going. On the longer term chart there is a convergence of two channel lines. This is where I would have sold. If this was today's chart then there should be (but not always) a pullback tomorrow.

Knowing where the trend lines and support and resistance lines are is key to placing stops. Just be careful not to be to precise. Place where you think it should go then back it off a few ticks. This will give you wiggle room.

Hope this makes sense.

Robert



nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Silver Dragon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Silver Dragon View Post
See the markups on the chart. On a gap up (false breakout) the stock generally fills the gap, which this one did, before continuing higher. A downward trend line was formed from the gap up. I would have bought on the break above this line. The stop should be put below the trend line. in this case there was a new trend line formed (see blue line). I would have put the stop a nickle below it.

When it filled in the gap it formed a double bottom. This is a bullish sign. I still would have bought here I would have waited for the trend line break.

The key to trading is knowing where price is going. On the longer term chart there is a convergence of two channel lines. This is where I would have sold. If this was today's chart then there should be (but not always) a pullback tomorrow.

Knowing where the trend lines and support and resistance lines are is key to placing stops. Just be careful not to be to precise. Place where you think it should go then back it off a few ticks. This will give you wiggle room.

Hope this makes sense.

Robert




Hi Robert,

You were spot on with your assessment. The stock pulled back heavily where you indicated (Sorry about late reply, can only access this site from work........)

It also pulled back after reaching my expected target of $1.90.

I am clearly having issues with my stop losses being incorrect and stopping me just before the move. I have gone back over my trades that were stopped out, and some of them have reached their intended targets...

This is something I am working on now, and have some new ideas for trades in October. I will continue with my current set up till the end of September.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	tga.JPG
Views:	52
Size:	127.5 KB
ID:	89537  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

My Trades for the past week. I wish you could update them more often, but home computer will not access this site???

1/9/12 Closed LEI (Leighton), It initially broke through support of $15.29, but had a large move up on 14/9/12, and stopped me out. Still moving up strongly.

17/9/12 stopped out of SHL, it went up initially, and then went back down, broke through my original stop loss of $13.27 on 16/9/12, but I thought I will try and lower my stop loss slightly, because lately I have been stopped out of stock that went up straight after I exited... I moved my stop to a close bellow supporting rising line. That was broken the following day.

17/9/12 Went long on PRU 100 shares on 17/9/12 at $2.82, on friday 14/9/12 it closed above a sloping s/r line, target is around $3.40, stop loss is $2.75

19/9/12 Stopped on BWP, I looked back at that trade recently, and probably should have waited for a break above $2.03, that is where the long s/r seems to be, and stock has not broken through that level recently. It also looks like consolidation at current levels, so it may still be a buy, but at the moment it closed bellow my stop loss, and closed bellow a recent trend line.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	lei.JPG
Views:	30
Size:	123.7 KB
ID:	89538   Click image for larger version

Name:	shl.JPG
Views:	46
Size:	119.5 KB
ID:	89539   Click image for larger version

Name:	pru.JPG
Views:	33
Size:	116.6 KB
ID:	89540   Click image for larger version

Name:	bwp.JPG
Views:	31
Size:	126.6 KB
ID:	89541  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TastyWorks
Broker: TastyWorks
Trading: FX, Stocks, Options
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,012 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 5,770 given, 4,888 received


223552 View Post
My Trades for the past week. I wish you could update them more often, but home computer will not access this site???

Felix, (@223552)

Do you get a error like 404 page cannot be found or does it just time out? What browser are you using?

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

One issue that is emerging from this month, is I am being stopped out prematurely, and missing the moves that I initially predicted. I end up taking a loss, on a stock that I correctly predicted where it will go. There have been a few stocks that I have noticed that have moved to reach their intended target, very shortly after I got stopped out......

I could widen my stops, but then my risk/reward ratio drops, and my losses are potentially increased. My stops are closely tied to my entry point, which is based on drawing s/r lines, and looking at volumes. I have been playing around with charts and have noticed something which I will be trialling in October. My s/r lines are drawn on candle charts, and generally I will draw a line of best fit for the peaks. However, I noticed if I switch my chart to closing prices only, and then draw s/r line it is slightly different to my original lines, and in some stocks gives me a different entry point and stops.

Example is PRU 1 st chart is candlestick with original s/r line in blue, second chart is closing price only with s/r from 1st chart in blue, and 2nd line that touches closing price in red. 3rd chart is candle chart again with both blue and red lines.

Looking at 3rd chart, my entry signal (s) would have been 2 days earlier, and with an entirely different stop loss.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	pru 1st.JPG
Views:	37
Size:	116.3 KB
ID:	89542   Click image for larger version

Name:	pru 2nd.JPG
Views:	47
Size:	115.3 KB
ID:	89543   Click image for larger version

Name:	pru 3rd.JPG
Views:	36
Size:	114.0 KB
ID:	89544  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Silver Dragon View Post
Felix, (@223552)

Do you get a error like 404 page cannot be found or does it just time out? What browser are you using?

Robert

It times out, it all started after we got new Belkin router (3-4 weeks ago). There are a few other sites that we have same issues with (ebay, some news site). Otherwise same computer, same browser (chrome)... I cant work it out yet.....

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Firstly update on positions. Still having issues with accessing this site from, but hoping to get it fixed this weekend. Dad's health has taken a turn for the worse, and that has been a major distraction. I decided not to make any new trades in this time, and mostly managing existing positions.


I am continuing my education about the basic charting principles, and have reasonable understanding of reversal patterns, as well as continuation patterns, and what they all mean. Now comes the fun part of identifying them on charts, and finding a good place to actually trade them. With this new knowledge, I am starting to look at the much bigger picture to see what is the stock doing over the past few years, is still in a trend, has there been reversal, is there a consolidation patter. With this new knowledge, I can now see how some of my previous positions were actually going against the trend. The plan is to implement all this in October.

For the past 1 week, I mostly got stopped out of some positions. I also learned about a shake out candle (sharp dip bellow/above a s/r , but still close somewhere around/above/bellow s/r line with a long tail) Labeled SO on chart (apolgies about child like writing, but I a dont know what to use to take snaps of screen shots, and annotate it).

I believe I saw that with WDC, I traded it recently on a pull back, but got stopped out. I went back in long 50 shares at $10.17, with stop around $9.95, and target still $12. It also looks like it may be a small consolidation pattern occurring. A sharp break out up, with large volume, and I may add to my position.

NUF stopped at $5.96, loss of $-16 all commission.. Another plan for October, is to go back into the stock if it goes back up above/bellow s/r line for the second time. I noticed from my past trades, second time the moves is strong/sharp and reached some of my targets. On a 5 yr chart it is still an uptrend, and probably consolidation around this major level of $6,

CTX stopped at $15.79, again slightly above my entry so only loss is commission $16. Also still in uptrend. I was not very comfortable with the stock before, as there was only one previous peak for s/r reference. Now there are 2, and if it goes up again, then I will trade it again. Another lesson for October, only make trades that have clear signals.

OSH stopped at $7.41, again only commission loss. This has showed strong s/r at $7.60, broke through, went up sharply, and then fell back past my stop. If it goes up above s/r again soon , then I am back in.

PRU stopped out at $2.75, commission loss only this is a stock I mentioned recently, that I may have used an incorrect trend line. If I entered this stock based on my new theory of drawing lines based on closing price, then I would still be in this position. I may sit this one out, and watch it (it will probably go where I predicted it, since I will not be in it....)

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	wdc.JPG
Views:	35
Size:	132.6 KB
ID:	90169   Click image for larger version

Name:	nuf.JPG
Views:	46
Size:	99.9 KB
ID:	90170   Click image for larger version

Name:	ctx.JPG
Views:	42
Size:	109.2 KB
ID:	90171   Click image for larger version

Name:	osh.JPG
Views:	34
Size:	122.3 KB
ID:	90172   Click image for larger version

Name:	pru.JPG
Views:	39
Size:	111.4 KB
ID:	90173  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

So September is complete, and I can now look at my data

Total Loss for September is $25.80, I also received a dividend of $35 for SHL, and paid back $10 of dividends for a short position. Interest paid for open positions net $16.53. Commissions for September 2012 was $224,
Net for September trading $-249.33

Trades (Closed)

Total Trades 14
winners 2
Losers 12
% 16% winners
Average Win $86
Average Loss$16.5

My statistics have significantly improved. I am fairly comfortable with my average loss, and I am happy with the average win amounts. The problem is I only had 16% winning trades. At this levels I need to have at least 30% winning trades to break even. Judging from the above, it will be hard to reduce my average loss per trade. I need to work on my winning %, as well as increasing my winning amounts.

A few things emerged from September trading.

1.I have correctly predicted majority of my trades, and a few have reached their targets after I was stopped out. I am reworking my drawing techniques, and this may possibly give me a better position. ( I will go back through most of my trades and see what happened)

2. Break outs so far have not been effective for me, stocks break out and then in nearly all cases retrace back, and close bellow/above my stop, and a few days later head back to where I thought it would go in a first place.

3. In a few stocks I actually traded against a major underlying trend, that could be seen on a very big chart (5-10yrs).

Lessons for October
Same as for September, No stupid trades, stick to stops, control position size for limited risk
1. New lines are drawn on closing price only.
2. Not trading the break out in October, look for a break out, wait for pull back, buy on the second break of the s/r line. (somewhat opposite of one of my rules from August, but I got to try it)
3. Look at a bigger picture (5-10 yrs) identify the major trends, has the stocked bottomed out, completed top, sideways , and trade with the trend.
4. Start looking at volume

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Looking back at August trades. 4 stocks have continued moving in the directions that I predicted, and 3 have hit their tartgets within 2-3 weeks, after I was stopped out. All dipped after the break out, and then reversed and continued in their original direction.

The plan for October is to find that 2 entry point, and mange the risk properly

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
 DropD 
Western Slope+Colorado/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Broker: NinaTrader Brokerage, Interactive Brokers
Trading: Coffee
 
DropD's Avatar
 
Posts: 22 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 39 given, 28 received


223552 View Post
So September is complete, and I can now look at my data

Total Loss for September is $25.80, I also received a dividend of $35 for SHL, and paid back $10 of dividends for a short position. Interest paid for open positions net $16.53. Commissions for September 2012 was $224,
Net for September trading $-249.33

Trades (Closed)

Total Trades 14
winners 2
Losers 12
% 16% winners
Average Win $86
Average Loss$16.5

My statistics have significantly improved. I am fairly comfortable with my average loss, and I am happy with the average win amounts. The problem is I only had 16% winning trades. At this levels I need to have at least 30% winning trades to break even. Judging from the above, it will be hard to reduce my average loss per trade. I need to work on my winning %, as well as increasing my winning amounts.

A few things emerged from September trading.

1.I have correctly predicted majority of my trades, and a few have reached their targets after I was stopped out. I am reworking my drawing techniques, and this may possibly give me a better position. ( I will go back through most of my trades and see what happened)

2. Break outs so far have not been effective for me, stocks break out and then in nearly all cases retrace back, and close bellow/above my stop, and a few days later head back to where I thought it would go in a first place.

3. In a few stocks I actually traded against a major underlying trend, that could be seen on a very big chart (5-10yrs).

Lessons for October
Same as for September, No stupid trades, stick to stops, control position size for limited risk
1. New lines are drawn on closing price only.
2. Not trading the break out in October, look for a break out, wait for pull back, buy on the second break of the s/r line. (somewhat opposite of one of my rules from August, but I got to try it)
3. Look at a bigger picture (5-10 yrs) identify the major trends, has the stocked bottomed out, completed top, sideways , and trade with the trend.
4. Start looking at volume

-I understand what you mean about stock breaking out and then retracing before making the move. It seems like that's what Wall Street likes to do. When the breakout occurs, it draws in supply. They know where the stops are, and they like to hit them. I try to make sure that my stops are at an odd level, and not at a whole dollar amount. I try to keep them from obvious places like everyone else, or I just keep them as a 'mental stop'.
Have you ever tried using standards of deviation to determine stop placement?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


GrandSuperCycle View Post
-I understand what you mean about stock breaking out and then retracing before making the move. It seems like that's what Wall Street likes to do. When the breakout occurs, it draws in supply. They know where the stops are, and they like to hit them. I try to make sure that my stops are at an odd level, and not at a whole dollar amount. I try to keep them from obvious places like everyone else, or I just keep them as a 'mental stop'.
Have you ever tried using standards of deviation to determine stop placement?

At the moment I am using the lowest point on a candle of the break out as a stop loss. I guess there are many ways to set a stop loss, could be dollar amount, %, specific price etc. I honestly don't know enough about trading right now to make a choice between different stop options. Hopefully, something I will learn in the future. Now that I am avoiding trading break outs, I am seeing retracement back to s/r line in nearly 100% of cases!!! I wonder if anyone else has noticed that ... The big questions is when do you establish a position?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

From September I carried forward 3 trades. 2 short positions in ORG and GWA, and one long position in WDC
The long position of WDC was a second re-entry position, as well as what I believe was a shake-out candle. This fits with my october plan of trading 2nd entry signal (when the s/r line is re-entered for a second time after initial break out)

GWA was opened on a break out in September, and was stopped out today with a major spike up. I will watch this stock, and if it goes down bellow s/r line again soon, then I will go short again. commission loss only $16

ORG was entered on a second break out, and has been stopped out today at a trailing stop loss, with a small profit.

New entries for 2/10/12

AMP long 150 shares at $4.38, stop $4.29 which is a low from the past few dips. First target is $5, then possibly $6.
It has broke through s/r line second time a few days back, but I missed it, and entered the position yesterday as it was close to stop loss.

OSH traded it in the past, and was stopped out. It has gone above s/r line yesterday 2nd time, and I went long today 80 shares, at $7.55, stop is $7.31.

Another observation from past few weeks, is I am being closed out of short position, and a lot of stock heading up.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	gwa.JPG
Views:	44
Size:	116.6 KB
ID:	90917   Click image for larger version

Name:	org.JPG
Views:	35
Size:	115.2 KB
ID:	90918   Click image for larger version

Name:	amp.JPG
Views:	31
Size:	120.2 KB
ID:	90919   Click image for larger version

Name:	osh.JPG
Views:	31
Size:	120.5 KB
ID:	90920  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

I was away for 1 week middle of October, and being busy with work the week before/after the break has caused my absence. I missed out on doing my weekly scan for 2 weeks, and towards the end of my break I managed to look at stock and entered some trades. They were slightly rushed as I thought I was missing out on possibly good trades, and I think next lesson is, "dont rush trades, there is always opportunity"

My 2 positions that were opened at beginning of October are still open AMP is in the money, and my stop is now above my entry point, giving me a small profit if I am stopped out.

OSH is still open, but just hovering above the stop loss. 2 weeks ago when all other stocks were moving up strongly OSH was pausing and not budging, I was not sure what to make of it, and was tempted to get out (at a small profit), but chose to sit it out. May be something to consider for future, If a stock is not behaving as I expect it to, then get out and re-evaluate. (Chart attached if someone wants to suggest something)

10/10/12

AAD broke through s/r 2nd time, went long 400 shares at $1.345, stop loss is $1.33 been trading in the range since between $1.34-$140, volume is increasing, if it breaks above $1.40 I my add to my position, and move stop loss. Target $1.50 first, then $2

SKE 2nd time break of s/r on 9/10/12, went long on 10/10/12 100shares at $2.49, stop $2.43, Target $3, then $3.50

BWP this one is giving me a whiplash .... I have traded it in the past, I thought I will give it another go... on 10/10/12 went long (against my plan) on a break out thinking it will just move up quickly because of consolidation, and got stopped out next day, on a swing down... Yes it is still going up, and I will only watch it now....


11/10/12

AQG I learned from this trade, and I will consider this setup a false break out now. When the breakout occurs on a red candle, I will consider it a false breakout. I have seen this happen a few times now. I traded this stock as I had planed on a 2nd break, but then was stopped out on a 15/10/12

12/10/12

Went short WTF, it closed bellow s/r 2nd time the day before, but on the same day I went short I got stopped out.
I looked at the chart a few times since, and I am happy with this trade, I followed my rules.



I am still holding most of positions entered in the last months, and that in itself is indications that I am doing something different. On the other hand, ASX has gone up nearly 10% since July 2012, when I started trading, and I am nearly $1000 down.... SO I have a LOOONG way to go.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	osh.JPG
Views:	36
Size:	129.7 KB
ID:	93205   Click image for larger version

Name:	AAD.JPG
Views:	29
Size:	107.2 KB
ID:	93206   Click image for larger version

Name:	ske.JPG
Views:	33
Size:	114.8 KB
ID:	93207   Click image for larger version

Name:	bwp.JPG
Views:	35
Size:	123.1 KB
ID:	93208   Click image for larger version

Name:	AQG.JPG
Views:	37
Size:	126.5 KB
ID:	93209   Click image for larger version

Name:	WTF.JPG
Views:	39
Size:	117.0 KB
ID:	93210  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

1 position that I have carried from September is WDC, it has been moving up, and I have moved my stop loss a few times now. I am using the previous low as a stop level.

15/10/12

Woolworth WOW went long 40 shares@ $29.28, stop 28.96. I missed the spot when the stock closed abover s/r line for the second time, and only saw it a week later. Since it was still close to the stop loss from early october (the lowe of the day before it closed above s/r for the 2nd time), I decided to go long. It has been sitting around/under s/r for the past 1-2 weeks, and yesterday it also broke above the descending trend line which could mean the end of consolidation and the next move up. This could be a good place to add to the position, but I am not sure where to place the stop. Target $35

18/10/12
CDD went long 40 shares at $7.93 stop $7.65, it has broke through s/r line for the second time on 17/10/12, i have gone long and the stop is the low of 17/10/12. The first break above s/r line was also a new high for this stock. I have always been uncomfortable with trading a stock at a new high, as I always thought I missed the boat. But recently I have been reading "Market Wizards" and one of the traders said " when a stock reaches a new high, the market is trying to tell you something..." So for November I will also start trading stocks that have reached a new high. Target $9, and then possibly $11-12 based on previous lows.

23/10/12

I am starting to see stock that are setting up for a short position, this could mean that we are approaching a period of consolidation, or early signs of reversal. However, most of my positions are still long.

IMD short 175 shares @ $1.505 with original stop of $1.60, I have moved that to around at $.145 now, mostly to protect my money since the stock has moved down, and closer to its target of $1.20


29/10/12 NUF I have traded this stock before, and recently it has gone above s/r line for the second time, I missed it by a few days, but still got a pretty good entry, and close to the stop. But was stopped out 2 days later with mostly commission loss. It is still hovering around s/r, so there still could be a trade there, with target of around $8 it is still promising. I will watch it for now.

29/10/12 stopped out of OSH. On friday 26/10/12 it had a sharp fall, and closed bellow my stop loss. I am still watching this stock, as it could be forming a wedge, and I may trade it again on a breakout of the wedge. It is also sitting around all time highs, so i can see how this area can be consolidation. Could be $1-2 profit if it moves up.


29/10/12 went NWH short 125 @ $2.08 stop at $2.20. Target $1

30/10/12

APA long 100 shares at $5.02 stop $4.89. This is a new formation I will be looking for in the future. I haved traded this stock in the past as a short, but what i did not see was the big picture. The stock reached a new high, then went into 6 months of consolidation mostly above the previous peak high, it also formed a wedge, and broke out of this pattern about 1 week ago on higher volume, and I decided to try to go long, with the recent lows as being the stop.It has also formed another pattern which I have been observing lately, and will look for it more. To summarise it, it is consolidation/wedge pattern sloping down a little just under or around 150day MVA. Second chart APA1 is a close up of this pattern, which also happened recently. A break out of the wedge, as well as move above MVA gives buy signal.

The aim now is to identify the trend, and find the best place to enter just before the move. No point in staying with a stock that is going nowhere.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	wdc.JPG
Views:	44
Size:	102.4 KB
ID:	93559   Click image for larger version

Name:	wow.JPG
Views:	37
Size:	122.4 KB
ID:	93560   Click image for larger version

Name:	cdd.JPG
Views:	31
Size:	106.4 KB
ID:	93561   Click image for larger version

Name:	imd.JPG
Views:	31
Size:	114.6 KB
ID:	93562   Click image for larger version

Name:	nuf.JPG
Views:	36
Size:	120.0 KB
ID:	93563   Click image for larger version

Name:	osh.JPG
Views:	34
Size:	120.7 KB
ID:	93564   Click image for larger version

Name:	nwh.JPG
Views:	41
Size:	106.8 KB
ID:	93565   Click image for larger version

Name:	apa.JPG
Views:	23
Size:	120.1 KB
ID:	93566   Click image for larger version

Name:	apa1.JPG
Views:	30
Size:	103.3 KB
ID:	93567  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #35 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

October Stats

Total Trades 8 Win 1/Loss 7 % 14.3, without stupid trade % would have been 16 % (same as Sept)
Stupid Trades 1 - No excuses for this kind of mistakes. Got the direction of the trade wrong, as soon as I realised it, I closed the trade and opened it in the right direction. COst $16 commission

Total Win $30, total loss $ - 72.40, Net $-42.40
Total commission on 8 trades $128, total interest paid on positions $ 1.83 Monthly total loss $- 172.23

Average win per trade $30, Average loss per trade $10.30
Without the stupid trade average loss would have been $11/trade

I was hoping for a better month than that, was really hoping for a break even. The positives though are: losses are diminishing every month. I currently have 8 positions open, and every one of those positions is positive, and 3 positions will give me a small profit if I m stopped out.

Plan for November
As covered previously. The new approach of buying stocks on 2 break through s/r is showing promising results.
1. I am considering trading breakouts again, however only for a small profit as I noticed they tend to move sharply up/down and then retrace. So the plan is to get in, make 1-2 times the stop and get out, could also use time stops, where if a stock is not moving after a couple of days, i get out.
2. I am boldly going, where I have not gone before.... I will trade new highs....I will look at stocks that have reached new highs, then wait for some sort of consolidation, and will trade a break out of that consolidation.
3. I will look for my new discovered signal where I see some sort of accumulation bellow 150 MVA, and will trade that break out (going long, or reverse for short)
4. Pay more attention to the index. Now that ASX has broken s/r of 4500 most stocks have been moving up, and made my trading a bit easier.

I have formed a nut shell idea about making money from trading. You need to identify the direction the stock is moving, that is fairly easy in most cases. The biggest problem is finding the right entry point. This is the spot from which the stock is likely to move quickly and decisively, and not break your stop. I don't want to get stuck in pull backs or consolidations I need to enter just before the stock resumes it move. That is the new quest for now.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #36 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

This month I am trying a few different setups. I am also noticing that I am not rushing into the stocks as much, and once I have identified a position I will still wait to get in at the most appropriate price for me. If I cant then I let the trade go.

2/11/12

I am slowly being stopped out of long positions.

WOW stopped out 40 shares at $28.87 loss $16

AMP stopped out at $4.44, I moved my stop to $4.50 as I thought that was s/r, but I may be should have used the previous low of $4.44 which has not been broken yet. I am looking to go long again in AMP when it breaks out up on high volume

5/11/12
SKE skilled group stopped out at $2.50 break even. The stop happened when the stock opened much lower than previous close and stopped me out, then went up. I decided to wait and re-evaluate the situation, I was happy to go back in if it started going up with higher volume, but that has not happened, and it has gone down bellow s/r line now? could this be a short?

More updates coming

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	amp.JPG
Views:	35
Size:	127.5 KB
ID:	95318   Click image for larger version

Name:	ske.JPG
Views:	32
Size:	133.5 KB
ID:	95319  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #37 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Still catching up on posting all previous trades for the past 2 weeks

6/11/12 CRF Went long 200 shares @2.15, the day before it broke out of the descending wedge on higher volume, this is my buy signal for now. Stop is $2.10 which is the recent low. The stock is at its high, target is hard to set as there is no previous highs to base it on. Will use a trailing stop for now. In the last 2 days it has gone up above the sloping line, but the volume is low, so I will just manage my current position.

7/11/12 NAB STUPID TRADE, I can't believe I did it again, in a spur of the moment I thought I saw something and jumped in. Went long 100 shares at 24.95, thinking that I am close to the recent lows of low of around $24.83, and 2 days before that there was a possibly shooting star candle. I also went long 2 days before the stock went ex-dividend. 2 days later it tanked well past the 90cent dividend, I looked at the chart, realised I have no idea what I am doing ( no clear plan) and exited straight away on 12/11/12 at $23.78. Loss of about $120, and dividend of $90, total loss of $30.

9/11/12 FMG, This so far been the only stock that reached its target for me. I was very cautious not to have an attachment to this stock. I went short 90 shares at $3.9, after it closed bellow s/r line of $4 for the second time. My initial stop was the previous days high of $4.08, and now has been moved down to s/r $4.

13/11/12 Stopped out of CDD at $7.60, and in good time!!! Stock fell significantly a few days later. (good reminder to stick to stop religiously!!!!)

15/11/12 WES, I am looking to trade this stock on the long side, however, it has been weak in the past few weeks, and most markets falling, I thought there was a short position here. On 13/11/12 it closed bellow recent s/r of $33.97. I wanted to go short for a as I thought it may be weak for a few days/weeks, with possible falls to around $32-32.50, On 15/11/12 it spiked up to $33.45, and I went short at $34.41 with the stop being a high on 13/11/12 of $34.25. I knew this was a safe trade with the stock trading at most likely high for the day (range of 70cents). I thought if it closes above $34.25 on the day, then I get out next day with a small loss. The stock actually closed at $33.80 giving me a nice profit for the day. I still kept my stop at $34.25 which was hit on 20/11/12 and I exited with a small profit. It is heading up, and I am looking at going long soon.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	CRF.JPG
Views:	30
Size:	120.2 KB
ID:	95761   Click image for larger version

Name:	NAB.JPG
Views:	41
Size:	125.7 KB
ID:	95762   Click image for larger version

Name:	FMG.JPG
Views:	35
Size:	136.7 KB
ID:	95763   Click image for larger version

Name:	WES.JPG
Views:	37
Size:	144.2 KB
ID:	95764   Click image for larger version

Name:	CDD.JPG
Views:	38
Size:	132.9 KB
ID:	95765  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #38 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

28/11/12 NWH reached its target today of $1.50! I closed the position. The stock could be heading lower, but for now I will re-evaluate my position, see how it behaves. Baby steps for now. Profit $60+

Interestingly this is only my second position that has reached its target, and both were short positions... Stocks seem to be moving down much faster than up. So if I see a short position in the future I may have to act on it quickly.
November is shaping up to be a good month!!!

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	nwh.JPG
Views:	34
Size:	121.8 KB
ID:	95808  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #39 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

In the last 3 days I made completely 3 different trades. I need to try all different scenarios to work out what will work best for me.

28/11/12 Long SUN (Suncorp) 80 shares $9.60, stop $9.47, the low from previous day. Trading 2nd re-entry. This is a significant s/r line at $9.5 spanning 4-5 yrs. Volume is increasing. Target $11, then possibly $12

29/11/12 WRT went long 250 shares at $2.98. The buy signal occurred 1/10/12 I was not looking for this particular set up then. It reached a new high, retraced and then broke out on increased volume. The stock then continued up and has been slowly retracing past month. If I did take the trade, I would have moved the trailing stop to $2.96 now (highlighted). I decided to go in now purely because the stock is close to a theoretical stop, with only a small exposure. Since it has not broken a theoretical stop, then it is still a potential up trend.

30/11/12 Went long BLD , it has formed a Head/Shoulder pattern, and broke out yesterday. Went long 80 shares at $4.04, with stop being $3.90 (yesterdays close), target is around $5.

IMD has reached its set target of $1.20, I have decided to hold on to it for another 2-3 days. The reason is it reached its target gradually, and today there was a large fall with increased volume to $1.10. I believe with this sudden falls, there will be panic in this stock and a few sharp candles down over the next 2-3 days, with possible gap down open on Monday. I have seen this a few times now. To protect my profit, if it goes back up above my previously set target of $1.20, i will close the position.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	SUN.JPG
Views:	31
Size:	136.7 KB
ID:	96055   Click image for larger version

Name:	WRT.JPG
Views:	29
Size:	136.1 KB
ID:	96056   Click image for larger version

Name:	BLD.JPG
Views:	38
Size:	138.9 KB
ID:	96057   Click image for larger version

Name:	IMD.JPG
Views:	36
Size:	136.4 KB
ID:	96058  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #40 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

November was a good month :-)

Total trades 7
Wins 4/looses 3
Ratio 57% wins
Total wins $93.50, Average win per trade $23.37
Total Loss $56.60, Average loss $18.86
Stupid Trade 1, loss $117, Dividend $90, Funding $1.97, Commission $16, Net loss $27+$1.97+$16= $44.97
Commission for the month $112, Funding cost (cfd interests) total $10.56

Net Profit $36.9
Total loss due to commissions and funding$ 36.9-112-10.56 = -$85.66

The same numbers without the stupid trade
win ratio 66%
$ per win trade $ 23.37 total $93.5
$ per loss trade$14.8 total$29.6
total win $63.9, less commission $96 = -$32.1 less holding costs = -$40.69

This one stupid trade cost me dearly, I still cant believe I did it.
At this rate I will be losing money, even if I have a positive month. My commission is costing me a lot of money compare to the winnings. My commission is 0.01%, with $8 minimum per trade. That means I can trade up to $8000 value for $8 commission. My current average trade value is $200-500. That means I can trade between 20-3o times my current value to pay same commission. If i was to apply this to my above stats, even at 20 times, with the stupid trade....
Net profit $36.9 x 20 = $738
funding $10.56 x 20 = $211.2
Commission $112
Total Profit $ 415

Without the stupid trade
Net profit $ 63.9 x 20 = 1278
funding $ 8.59 x 20 = 171.8
commission $96
Total Profit $ 1010
If i was trading large, my 1 stupid trade would have cost me half of my profits.... I need to remember this for ever.

Going into December in a very healthy position with 1 stock past its target, and 1 stock near its target, 3 stocks well above their entry point, and when stopped out will give me a small profit.

I would like to see 3 months of consistent profits before I start increasing my stakes.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #41 (permalink)
Inol
Paris / France
 
 
Posts: 6 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 3 received

what have I to know to make my own journal?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #42 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Inol View Post
what have I to know to make my own journal?


Your journal is the diary of your trades. You make it into whatever you want it to be. You can write up your trades, the thinking behind it, track you performance. In my opinion, the diary forces you to be more accountable for your trades. You also get helpful feedback from other traders.

Good Luck!

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #43 (permalink)
 wldman 
Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,341 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,978 given, 8,856 received

already has three posts.

That was easy wasn't it?

grab screen shots of your charts and you are on your way...best of luck

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to wldman for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #44 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

4/12/12 Long GPT 120 shares at $3.57, stop $3.48. There has been a long term s/r line that was broken in September 2012. The stock been retracing past few months, while still respecting the s/r line. There was a breakout on larger volume on 3/12/12. I went long. Nearly got stopped out 2 days later...

6/12/12
IMD reached its target of $1.20 last friday. The move was strong and it closed around $1.10, I was expecting a few more days of panic selling, as I have seen it before. I also decided to keep my target of $1.20 as a stop loss. To my surprise, the stock started going up on monday, staid at $1.20 for a few days, and closed above it on Wednesday 5/12/12. I closed the position first thing thursday morning. Profit $50+, 3 rd stock to reach its target, and all have been short positions...

If I come across this situation again, when a stock reaches its target, but I think it will move further, I will be closing half of the position, and locking in profits, and then waiting for the next move.

So far December has been good, I am up $250 in my positions, however, this is presenting me with 2 problems,

1. Overconfidence - I am a beginner, so my current success is part my stock picking, part luck, and part right-time... So need to keep my feet on the ground

2. Paper profit - most of my stocks have had sharp moves, leaving my stops far behind, leaving me exposed... I have looked over all my charts, and currently can not move my stops...... Need to think about this one, open to suggestions from other too..

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	gpt.JPG
Views:	33
Size:	137.7 KB
ID:	96629   Click image for larger version

Name:	IMD.JPG
Views:	39
Size:	125.7 KB
ID:	96630  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #45 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

10/12/12 Stopped out of FMG short position at $3.95, I was able to move my stop lower , which limited my loss to $4.50. Happy with this trade, I followed my rules, stock has been going up strongly since.

10/12/12 Went long SGP 130 shares at $3.41, put my stop at around $3.31-3.32. Looking back at the charts now, I have no idea why I took the trade.... The stock has broke through the s/r at around $3.50, retracing back, but there has not been a significat break out yet... The stock kind of drifted out of the range on 2 negative candles some increase in volume. This is certainly a set up I want to watch, and should trade a breakout with target of $4.20 next major s/r. I must make my trading rules more clear. Have a firm idea on the set up, trades, and exits...


AUD/USD I have been watching aus dollar agains us for a few weeks now. My opinion is, if it breaks out of major consolidation/retracement over the past 2 years, next target is $1.20. The break out occurred 2 days ago. I would like to take the trade, however with 1 mini contract, my stop would still be about $75-95, I am not comfortable with this amount yet, even though the upside is around $1500. If there is a pullback to around $1.050, I may take the trade, otherwise will watch..........
If I am correct and the dollar goes higher, this may lead to further interest rate cuts in Australia, with Bonds going higher (they have been going down), but I dont know how to trade bonds
Also if i am correct , and dollar goes higher, it will hurt Australian miners, so I will be watching to short big miners such as BHP, Rio, Fortescue.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	fmg.JPG
Views:	33
Size:	133.1 KB
ID:	97044   Click image for larger version

Name:	sgp.JPG
Views:	42
Size:	139.4 KB
ID:	97045   Click image for larger version

Name:	a-d forex.JPG
Views:	33
Size:	110.6 KB
ID:	97046  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #46 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

14/12/12 Went long RMD 175 shares at $3.96, stop $3.89, it has reached a new high, and has had a retracement over the last 2 months. Broke out on Wed, I did not see it till this morning. The stock opened lower, and gave me a much better entry point with a very small stop loss. Targets around $4.30 first, aand a long term target of possibly $5-5.50.
I am finding lately that I do not rush into the trade, I may see a buy signal, but still wait for an entry point that I am comfortable with.
I have also been getting a bit of anxiety before putting a trade on... Currently all 9 of my positions are positive (RMD is the 10th), and I seem to be scared of putting on a trade, and if turns into a loss. I might stick to very small positions for now to keep my potential loss to minimum, to get my comfort zone back. Ultimately I will have to increase my positions 20-30 times its current levels, to make any money out of the stocks.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	rmd.JPG
Views:	35
Size:	128.9 KB
ID:	97145  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #47 (permalink)
 Fourwedge 
Kansas City MO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Stocks
 
Posts: 35 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 262 given, 17 received


223552 View Post
At the moment I am using the lowest point on a candle of the break out as a stop loss. I guess there are many ways to set a stop loss, could be dollar amount, %, specific price etc. I honestly don't know enough about trading right now to make a choice between different stop options. Hopefully, something I will learn in the future. Now that I am avoiding trading break outs, I am seeing retracement back to s/r line in nearly 100% of cases!!! I wonder if anyone else has noticed that ... The big questions is when do you establish a position?

I was having the same problem you are and I was setting my stops directly below the candle like you too. I now know that was the reason for my terrible win loss ratio. I think you just have it too tight for a swing trade position. To me it sounds like you have a shorter (daytrader) stop in place.

I have been using an ATRx2 stop. I let the volatility of the stock determine how many shares I can buy. That way your risk is accounted for also.

Example: risk per trade / 2 x ATR = number of shares purchased

Or $200/(2x .54) = 192.3

So I would round up to 200 shares and set my initial stop 2 daily atr's below my entry price. That's what I would say about stops. I also don't understand your usage of targets in swing trading.

Everyone has heard let your winners run right? I think you should try it! I really believe risk/reward ratio is a fallacy, particularly in longer term trading. I believe it has its place for day trading.

Just my 2 cents
Good luck and keep up the great journal

Fourwedge

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fourwedge for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #48 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Fourwedge View Post
I was having the same problem you are and I was setting my stops directly below the candle like you too. I now know that was the reason for my terrible win loss ratio. I think you just have it too tight for a swing trade position. To me it sounds like you have a shorter (daytrader) stop in place.

I have been using an ATRx2 stop. I let the volatility of the stock determine how many shares I can buy. That way your risk is accounted for also.

Example: risk per trade / 2 x ATR = number of shares purchased

Or $200/(2x .54) = 192.3

So I would round up to 200 shares and set my initial stop 2 daily atr's below my entry price. That's what I would say about stops. I also don't understand your usage of targets in swing trading.

Everyone has heard let your winners run right? I think you should try it! I really believe risk/reward ratio is a fallacy, particularly in longer term trading. I believe it has its place for day trading.

Just my 2 cents
Good luck and keep up the great journal

Fourwedge

Thanks for your advice! I am not familiar with ATR, i have looked it up since, and will need some time to study it, and learn the formulation for it. My charting software has it, so will play around with it once I understand it a bit more.

Lately I have been thinking about the stop losses, and my current thinking about stop loss has changed. It is part of a much bigger picture. The way I am starting to see my trading now, is find a stock that has made a move (buy/sell signal) and enter into the trade. If I enter at the right time, then even the tightest stop should be safe. My stop loss now is a point at which I must realize that the stock is not ready to go where I want it to go. The actual loss amount is what I am prepared to pay for this realization.

In regards to targets, Unless the stock is at all time high, then there are usually areas of previous highs/lows that stocks tend to react to. It gives me an indication where it a stock may go... It is a guess, but it seems to be widely used in charting books, and by some pro traders as well. with time I may change my thinking, but for now i will stick to basic rules

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #49 (permalink)
 Fourwedge 
Kansas City MO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Stocks
 
Posts: 35 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 262 given, 17 received


223552 View Post
Thanks for your advice! I am not familiar with ATR, i have looked it up since, and will need some time to study it, and learn the formulation for it. My charting software has it, so will play around with it once I understand it a bit more.

Lately I have been thinking about the stop losses, and my current thinking about stop loss has changed. It is part of a much bigger picture. The way I am starting to see my trading now, is find a stock that has made a move (buy/sell signal) and enter into the trade. If I enter at the right time, then even the tightest stop should be safe. My stop loss now is a point at which I must realize that the stock is not ready to go where I want it to go. The actual loss amount is what I am prepared to pay for this realization.

In regards to targets, Unless the stock is at all time high, then there are usually areas of previous highs/lows that stocks tend to react to. It gives me an indication where it a stock may go... It is a guess, but it seems to be widely used in charting books, and by some pro traders as well. with time I may change my thinking, but for now i will stick to basic rules

ATR is average true range. It's the average range of movement a stock displays. The last couple months I have been setting the initial stop at the beginning of the trade ,2 daily atr's below entry price.

Good luck
Fw

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #50 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Fourwedge View Post
ATR is average true range. It's the average range of movement a stock displays. The last couple months I have been setting the initial stop at the beginning of the trade ,2 daily atr's below entry price.

Good luck
Fw

Do you use 14 days? Also is the stop loss triggered when daily close bellow ATR or even intraday fall bellow?

Thanks
Felix

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #51 (permalink)
 Fourwedge 
Kansas City MO
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Thinkorswim
Trading: Stocks
 
Posts: 35 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 262 given, 17 received


223552 View Post
Do you use 14 days? Also is the stop loss triggered when daily close bellow ATR or even intraday fall bellow?

Thanks
Felix

I use a 20 day atr period because, I also use a 20 breakout period. I close out the position interday if a price trades one tick below my 2ATR stop.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Fourwedge for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #52 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


Fourwedge View Post
I use a 20 day atr period because, I also use a 20 breakout period. I close out the position interday if a price trades one tick below my 2ATR stop.

Cool, thanks. I will play with it in the future.

Good Luck with you trading!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #53 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Went long KMD 150 shares on 19/12/12 at $1.535, The stock broke above s/r of $1.52 on 11/12/12, I did not see the breakout, and by the time I saw it, the stop was just too far for my like. This has formed a head/shoulder pattern over psat 12 months.
The stock went down yesterday, and was spending first half of the day under the s/r line, and even touched the low of the break out candle of $1.495. I was thinking of buying it then as it was close to a stop loss of a potential buy signal. However, I decided to wait and see what happens, if it closed bellow s/r line I would have waited for a 2nd breakout and traded it then, or if it went up, and looked like it would close above s/r creating a long tail (another buy signal), I would enter the position then.
2 nd scenario played out, I went long, with bigger stop loss, but more confidence in my long position. Stop $1.495, Target $1.70, then $2

SUN is an existing position, and has given me another buy signal today. It has been going up strongly since I bought it, and had a small retracement past 10days. To me it looks like a perfect place to add to my position. If I get a good chance then I will, but since I trade small quantities my potential upside will be nearly completely reduced by my commissions. I may make a paper/mental trade with this one. I am currently up $50+ and stop moved to $10.40
On chart E is my original entry, E2 id the new buy signal, which is todays strong move up, on large volume.

Still watching AUD/USD pair, I will most likely go 1 mini contract long, with stop $1.045, it has retraced a bit giving me a much better entry point, with smaller stop loss.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	kmd.JPG
Views:	23
Size:	124.8 KB
ID:	97681   Click image for larger version

Name:	sun.JPG
Views:	29
Size:	131.5 KB
ID:	97682  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #54 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Finaly took the AUD/USD trade today. As I said before, I saw a breakout a few days ago, but my stop loss would have been too great. Today the stock reached aroun $1.046, and I went long 1mini contract at $1.0467, with a stop of just under $1.045.

This will be my final planned trade for the year. I currently hold 10 open long positions, and 1 FX position. This is the limit of my comfort zone. I have been searching for a short position past few days, to hedge all my long positions, but could not find anything, and instead there seems to be a sea of buy signals, including adding to my existing positions. With holidays approaching, and BUB No 2 due in 1 week , I decided to just manage the current positions, and put market research to rest for a few weeks. I will still watch the market as much as I can, and adjust my stops on all current positions as they change.

So far December has been my best month! On paper I am up $350+!! I am a bit surprised, since past few weeks, every stock I bough has gone up. I also think its a good idea to take a little step back, so I don't start making reckless trades. All current positions are positive, 6 positions have stops above my buy price, 2 are at break even, and 2 bellow my entry point. My biggest problem right now is high transaction cost compared to my trading profits/loss, but nothing I can do about that for now. If nothing happens next week, my next post will be December stats

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #55 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Nothing brings you down to earth faster, than a lesson from the Markets. I might have wanted to take it easy, and step back, but today I learned that Markets don't have a holiday, volatility doesn't have a holiday, news don't have a holiday. Today I realised that the only way to have some quiet time, is to not have any positions.

I got stopped out of 4 positions this morning. It came fast and hard, and I had no idea what was happening. Literally with-in the first 5 minutes, 3 of my biggest gainers were sold. In my trading platform I set an automatic stop loss, it gets hit as soon the price gets there. I thought I had sufficient room for movements in my stock to safeguard me from some volatility. But I forgot to account for dividends..... Today 4 of my stocks went ex-dividend, 3 dived down and hit my stops. This was a hard lesson, as I left a lot of profit in the market, and got stopped from positions which I should still be in. I also spent unnecessary money on commission....

3 new lessons for the future now:
1. If I want a break, I get out of all positions
2. Part of my stock selections/trading must included dividend dates/amounts, and my stop loss around those times should be adjusted accordingly.
3. stops review - my stops are 2 actually 2 stops, 1 is based on a closing price bellow my stop loss. 2 is an auto stop, a few points bellow that, in case of increased volatility. This needs to be reviewed, and my auto stop loss needs to be properly examined. I will look into ATR to help me determine my auto stop, to guard against volatility. Auto stops get hit automatically by my trading platform, and my other stop get executed on my decision, if a closing price is bellow it.

AUD/USD went past my stop loss of $1.045, loss of about $25, I am still watching this pair, if there is a daily close above my stop, I may go back in. I got stopped on intra day dip.

APA was my biggest gainer, and has been going up strongly. It went ex-dividend today of $0.17. My stop was $5.40, but for volatility it was set at $5.35. With adjustment for dividend, I should have had my stop around $5.25. If that was the case, I would still be in it. I may still go back in. I got stopped at $5.35

Total profit for this stock is $33, and $17 in dividends,

AAD stopped at $1.41, I had my stop at around $1.425, and had it set at $1.41, it paid $.066 dividend today, and stop should have been somewhere around $1.33. It would have been hit anyway, as the stock had a huge spike down. But I would have felt fine about, if I followed my rules.

Total profit $26, and $26 dividends


CRF stopped out at $2.25, I had my stop there because of a large break out yesterday, which is also another buy signal, but the real stop should be recent lows of $2.24. This was overconfidence placing stop too high. Paid dividend of $0.066 today. It has not gone bellow $2.24 and is still a good buy signal. So I am watching to go back in. OR if I want a break, then let it go for now.......
Profit $20, $13.5 dividends

Feeling very disappointed today, struggling to get my thoughts together, and plan the next step. I will probably manage my positions for now, until I can gather my thoughts and put a proper plan in place. This was overconfidence in myself, and the markets. It has cost me dearly, and I left around $50-70 in profits in the market...
If I was trading at multiples of 20, ( which is what my aim for 2013) that would have been $1000-1400 in profits...

A painful, but a valuable lessons. Further confirmations to keep my trading sizes small for another 1-2 months, and not get overconfident.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	APA.JPG
Views:	26
Size:	127.8 KB
ID:	97801   Click image for larger version

Name:	aad.JPG
Views:	21
Size:	118.3 KB
ID:	97802   Click image for larger version

Name:	crf.JPG
Views:	17
Size:	124.9 KB
ID:	97803  
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #56 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Another positive month. I went into December in a very good position, and was going well through most of december, until about 10 days ago, when a few of my stock got stopped out on large swings. This is my fault, and has added another step to my trading. I did not account for dividends, and in 1 day 3 stocks went ex-dividend, triggering my auto stops. In the process, I got stopped out prematurely of positions. This has led to new rules in regards to stops. It will be a 2 step process, auto and manual.

December stats
Total Trades 6
Winners 4/losers 2
66% win ratio
Total Wins $129.75 + $56.6 dividends = $ 185.35 Average per trade $32.43 without div, $ 46.37 with div
Total Losses $23.69 Average per trade $11.85
Co-mission $80 , Funding costs $11.59

Net win $ 161.66, less cost $80 + 11.59 = $70 !!!

December was not just a positive month, but I actually decreased my losses, on Paper I am now in $-950, however, I do have 8 positions open (8 x $8 commission = $64) and on top of that if my stops get hit $100-120

The plan for now is to have a positive January, and then possibly double my position size. So my stop loss will increase to about $30. If I increase my position sizes, I may also need to review my broker, so far my commission is fairly low, but interest charged on my longs is starting to increase

Very happy with numbers, I currently aim for a stop loss of no more than $15, so well with in my targets. My profits per trade have also nearly doubled from last month.

I took 1 stupid trade in December , SGP, i bought in prematurely, before there was a clear buy signal. Luckily it has gone up, and since then has given me two buy signals.


New Lessons rules
1. Be aware of dividends dates, and if no announcement is made, check announcements either weekly, or bi-weekly.
2. Together with above, I will be checking news/announcements for any takeover, mergers etc. to reduce chances of wild swing and my stops being hit unnecessarily.
3. Stops, there will be 2 stops now STOP1. I use a close above/bellow recent lows/highs or highest/lowest point of a break out candle as a stop loss. If my position closes below/above my stop, it get liquidated the next morning. STOP2 in my platform I usually set an auto stop to get me out of position if it gets too volatile. This was never based on anything specific, and was usually a few points away from stop 1. This will change now, and STOP2 will be 2ATR over 12-15 day range (still in progress on decision). The lowest/highest point out of the 2 stops will become the auto stop. Stop will also be adjusted if I know stock is going ex-dividend.
4. With firm stops in place I will now know exactly what my potential loss at any day could be. I will need to monitor it every few days, and I will use this for decision making on when to open more positions. I am not exactly sure what to set it at as yet. ( for example if my paper profit $300, I allow a max $150 and have open positions up to that level based on where their stops are, once my stop move up I can open more positions etc)

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #57 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

I began properly trading (sort of like a job, rather than a hobby....) beginning of July 2012, I made a decision, that trading is what I want to do, and instead of gambling (which is what I have done for past 10 yrs), to approach this like a school. Get textbooks, read, learn, and practice. I also decided to give it 6 months, trading with real money, and if I could see the potential then continue, otherwise back to studies, and paper trading.

first 1-2 months were massive losses, and that has taught me a lot of lessons, I had to decide on what was comfortable for me to loose per trade, and work my way from there to positions sizes, risk/rewards etc. I am constantly learning about charting as I read more and more books. Then, losses started to reduce, and last 2 months were profitable. This is probably a combination of luck, current trend and my trading. Ultimately if I am profitable over a longer period of time, it will be less luck and trends, and more my trading, but time will tell.

Firm lessons in place now are: certain ways I chart, and stops.

Where I am still very uncertain is stock selection. I am trading a few different patterns now, and I understand that some will work better in certain market conditions then others. Only time will probably help me here, as I build my experience.

Plan for January
Monitor my positions for the first 1-2 weeks. Bub #2 is 3 days overdue now, and could arrive any minute now, after that, I will be lucky to stay awake for my day job!!! Once everyone settles, I will get back into scanning and new trades.

Looking forward to 2013!!!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #58 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

USD/AUD I have been watching this pair for a while now, and even tried going long in December, but was stopped out. Well its on the move up now! I have been too busy with our newborn (Zac!!!) to pay any attention to the markets. Too late now to go in (one of my rules, is not to chase a missed trade), but will watch it for opportunities to buy along the way. Target is $1.20

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #59 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

8/1/13
2 positions closed, both based on volatility auto stops.

SGP was entered prematurely and was s stupid trade for December 2012. It then gave me 2 buy signals, but being the end of the year, I decided to watch, and not trade. Stopped at $3.45 on sharp move down. Small profit $5.20 and also got dividend of $15.60.
The stock is moving up again, on increased volume, and I will look to go long again, if I get a buy signal.


GPT stopped out at $3.58, tiny profit of $1.20, and dividend of $6.

Lessons:

ATR stop loss - is starting to get more confusing than helpful, I understand its a trailing stop, but its is not helping me right now. The stop loss moves, up and down, and there is a sharp change in directions, it will move over to the other side of the candle.......) I have switched to a Volatility Stop Loss with SAR (stop and reverse), it is much smoother, and less jumpy. Using 2 ATR with 21 days.

Stock that have been stopped out off, are still high on priority list to get looked at regularly. I have noticed that when a stop is hit it does not mean that the trend is over, it simply means that stock is hitting turbulence/volatility and if opportunity presents, I will go back into it.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	sgp.JPG
Views:	21
Size:	132.8 KB
ID:	99788   Click image for larger version

Name:	gpt.JPG
Views:	28
Size:	115.8 KB
ID:	99789  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #60 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

16/1/13

Went long MQA 300 shares. The stock has been heading up and has given a buy signal late December, but I waited till it broke a major s/r at 1.67 at the end of December , forming a head/shoulder pattern over a very long period. I did not see the break out and when I saw it I bought on 16/1/13, using the low of break out candle of 28/12/12 as a stop. I also placed an auto stop at 1.635 using my Volatility stop. It got hit the next day, with the lowest price of the day being 1.635, that day was a big candle up, which I now use as a confirmation of the move. I will now sit and wait for a better opportunity, Loss $12
I have also adjusted my Volatility stop to smooth it out further, going to 25 days and 2.2ATR

17/1/13
CLosed 2 positions, when they both reached their targets
WDC reached 11, and I sold it at $11.10. Profit +$ 46.50 - $10.50 for interest because of small intial position, and $11 being a strong s/r line from the past, I decided to close the position, instead of closing half, and if another set up occurs I will go back in.

SUN reached its target of $11, and was sold at $11.10, I should have sold half a position, but in the last moment made an emotional decision and sold the lot, there is further upside with target of $14, if I get an opportunity I will buy. Profit +$120 - $6 interest

I need to work on my action plan not just for stops, but when targets are met as well. Trying visualisation exercises now for both stops and targets.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	mqa.JPG
Views:	18
Size:	100.1 KB
ID:	100234   Click image for larger version

Name:	sun.JPG
Views:	18
Size:	87.3 KB
ID:	100235   Click image for larger version

Name:	wdc.JPG
Views:	27
Size:	103.0 KB
ID:	100236  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #61 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Forgot to mention a position opened on 15/1/13
CLO went long 300 shares at $1.01, stop $0.96, Target $1.30. Went past s/r of $0.99, retraced and broke out. A few days later a large candle up. I use that as a confirmation signal, may look at adding at that position as well.

17/1/13
JBH went long 65 shares at $10.60. This chart gave me a few buy signals, it has been going up retraced under s/r of $10.67, broke up with a large candle, broke through s/r completing a h/s over past 12 months, and broke through a sloping trend line of 4 years. I wanted to trade the h/s pattern, and a few days after the break out, it traced back, and I went it when I was comfortable with the price. I got stopped on trailing stop at $10.39 being the low of the candle before the break out, and also it has been the ATR stop on a chart. I got stopped out 21/1/13, and stock has been heading lower.

23/1/13 KMD I added to my existing position at $1.71, 250 shares. It was a small flag formation and break out. Trailing the stop. Target $1.90. With this stock my initial target was $1.70, which was reached and showed support around that area, so I am holding on to all positions for now. If it reaches $1.90, will sell half.

23/1/13 SVW went long 90 shares at $8.64, initial stop $8.50. Target $10.50. Went above recent high of $8.50, retraced and broke out.

23/1/13 AGK went long on 100 shares at$15.40, with initial stop $15.21. I saw consolidation under a major s/r, break out was too large, and when stock retraced a bit a went long. My auto stop was $15.21, but manual stop was a close bellow $15.375, being the recent low. On 28/1/13 stock closed bellow $15.375, at $15.37. I had to stick to rules, and was planning to sell it the next day. When I got to the computer the next day, the stock moved up$0.25-0.30, I decided to move the auto stop to break even (including comission), and let it play out. It as stopped out 2 days later at $15.56. I was happy with the trade, i followed rules, and adapted to a situation, without taking any risk. Neutral trade, covered its own comission.

29/1/13 AIO went long 250 shares at $4.79, stop $4.69, been retracing in a channel and broke out. Target $5.30


29/1/13 BOQ went long 75 shares at $8.03, stop $7.8, target $9. Closed above a recent high of $7.97, retraced over 1 week and broke out again.

31/1/13 closed out of RMD - been an excellent trade, and today i gave back 60% of winning because my stop was to far. This was not a mistake on my part, but part of learning. When stock has large moves up, I need to readjust my stops, I had my stop sitting on a previous low. I use either a previous low, or trailing stop as my auto stops, depending which one is further away.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	clo.JPG
Views:	32
Size:	95.0 KB
ID:	101094   Click image for larger version

Name:	jbh.JPG
Views:	21
Size:	94.5 KB
ID:	101095   Click image for larger version

Name:	kmd.JPG
Views:	29
Size:	98.7 KB
ID:	101096   Click image for larger version

Name:	svw.JPG
Views:	19
Size:	92.4 KB
ID:	101097   Click image for larger version

Name:	agk.JPG
Views:	17
Size:	89.3 KB
ID:	101098   Click image for larger version

Name:	aio.JPG
Views:	18
Size:	109.3 KB
ID:	101099   Click image for larger version

Name:	boq.JPG
Views:	16
Size:	101.4 KB
ID:	101100   Click image for larger version

Name:	rmd.JPG
Views:	17
Size:	91.3 KB
ID:	101101  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #62 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

3rd month of profits!!!

Total (closed) trades 8, Winners 6, losers 2
Win ration 75 %
Total wins $221.9 + $21.6 dividends = $243.5 Average per trade $36.98 without div, $ 40.58 with div
Total losses $26.30, Average per trade $ 13.15
Comission $ 128, Funding cost $ 28.43

Totals: $243.5 - $26.30 - $ 128 - $ 28.43 = +$60.77

Going into Feb in a good position with $300 paper profit. As was the plan a few months back, I will now double my positions, and increase my stop loss to $20-30. I would like to see another 2-3 months of profitability before I do any further increases. I expect Feb to be positive because of a strong current position. I will then watch what happens in March/april, and if I have loosing months, the I go back to current position size.

Overall I am now around -$750-800 down. I would like to think I will recoup all my losses in 2-3 months, but time will tell.

I need to stick to rules, and not rely on performance of past few months, as it has been easy money due to strong moves in most markets.

Fingers crossed for the next stage!!!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #63 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

4/2/13
ALZ went long 250 shares at $3.43, stock moved up, retraced and broke out on 29/1/13, i missed the break out, but went in 4 days later when I saw it. Stopped out on 12/2/12 at 3.35, there was a big spike down, and my suto stop kicked in. Loss of about $ 20, i was able to move the stop from intial stop of $3.33

6/2/13
BLD stopped at $4.83, was bought on 30/11/12 as breakout of h/s pattern, had a good run, but on 5/2/13 it closed bellow the recent lows, and was sold first thing on 6/2/13. The target was $5, which was achieved on the same day I exited the trade!!! $+63

8/2/13
WRT stopped out at $3.1, through an auto stop. $+30 collected $23 div. bought on 29/11/12 at $2.98. Another stock i wasnt prepared for with dividends. Making sure I know when the next divident distribution is before i put on any trade!!!!

8/2/13 MQA long 350 shares at $1.72, initial stop $1.65. was retacing above major s/r, and broke out on 7/2/13, but stopped on 25/2/13 at $1.655. total loss $-23

11/2/13
APA long 175 at $5.81, new highs, and then retracement over 1 week, and break out on a large candle. stopped out 5 days later, when the stock opened on my stop loss and got hit on 15/2/13 at $5.74, the stock went up that day, creating another buy signal, but I was too shy to try it again in such a short time.

12/2/13
GEM Went long 250 shares at $1.64. New highs, then retracement, and break out on 11/2/13. Current stop moved to $1.70

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	alz.JPG
Views:	20
Size:	129.0 KB
ID:	104121   Click image for larger version

Name:	bld.JPG
Views:	17
Size:	125.5 KB
ID:	104122   Click image for larger version

Name:	wrt.JPG
Views:	16
Size:	134.7 KB
ID:	104123   Click image for larger version

Name:	mqa.JPG
Views:	19
Size:	118.7 KB
ID:	104124   Click image for larger version

Name:	apa.JPG
Views:	21
Size:	104.0 KB
ID:	104125   Click image for larger version

Name:	gem.JPG
Views:	27
Size:	117.0 KB
ID:	104126  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #64 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

14/2/13
SGT long 350 shares at $2.77, stop at $2.70, got hit the next day. loss $24.50

This was a break out pattern, broke past s/r line at $2.74 forming a h/s pattern over 4.5 yrs, I missed the breakout, so bought in a few days later when it was closer to my stop of $2.70.

Still watching the stock, it still is a potential buy, and looks like forming a retracement.

18/2/13
BOQ reached its target of $9, and was sold for $9.1. I am still getting very confused when a stock gets to its target...
I need firm ides/plans in place for that now, as I am having a few stocks reach their targets now....
profit $80

18/2/13
AAD long 300 shares at $1.57. Broke through major s/r at $1.55 retraced back over 2 weeks, and broke up on 15/2/13. Stopped out on 21/2/13 on a massive move down, no explanation for that yet....

18/2/13
DUE long 400 shares at $2.14, stop $2.09, target $3. There has been a clear retracement around a major s/r of $2.20, broke up on larger volume on Friday 15/2/13. Also gave another buy signal, on second breakout past s/r line. But I had too many open positions at the time, and decided not to take any more trades.

18/2/13
BHP went long 25 shares at $38.68, with stop $37.68. The stock broke through major s/r line at $38 forming h/s pattern, but was stopped out on 21/2/13 at $37.5. Total loss of $30

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	sgt.JPG
Views:	26
Size:	119.1 KB
ID:	104127   Click image for larger version

Name:	boq.JPG
Views:	23
Size:	125.7 KB
ID:	104128   Click image for larger version

Name:	aad.JPG
Views:	18
Size:	118.4 KB
ID:	104129   Click image for larger version

Name:	due.JPG
Views:	16
Size:	130.4 KB
ID:	104130   Click image for larger version

Name:	bhp.JPG
Views:	23
Size:	120.7 KB
ID:	104131  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #65 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Through most of December, and January, all I could see was buy signals. Past few weeks starting to see some sell signals, and will try and go short if I see a good opportunity.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #66 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

25/2/13
DLS went short 300 shares at $1.38, target of $1. went down and been slowly retracing up, then sharp move down on 21/2/13, went in when the stock was closer to stop of $1.44.

27/2/13
SVW reached its target of around $10.50-10.70, and was sold at $10.76, Profit $190

again I did not follow my new rule of selling half og the stock. I have an auto limit put in, and that got triggered. I am afraid if I dont, then I will be greedy and not sell half of the position, and end up with reduced profit....


27/2/13
DJS went long 300 at $2.71, the stock borke above s/r of $2.65 retraced back, and then had a very sharp move up, today gave me an opportunity to buy closer to stop. The low of the large candle is the stop $2.65

27/2/13
NWH went long 350n shares at $2.06, stop $1.99. Broke through major s/r at around $2.08, but moved too far, today gave me a chance to get in closer to the stop.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	dls.JPG
Views:	28
Size:	133.7 KB
ID:	104134   Click image for larger version

Name:	svw.JPG
Views:	14
Size:	120.4 KB
ID:	104135   Click image for larger version

Name:	djs.JPG
Views:	27
Size:	141.3 KB
ID:	104136   Click image for larger version

Name:	nwh.JPG
Views:	15
Size:	117.9 KB
ID:	104137  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #67 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Another profitable month!

Total trades (closed) 10, Wins 4, loss 6
Win ratio 40%,
Total Win $363.2, Dividends $23.75 = $386.95 Average win $96.73 with div, $90.8 Without div
Total Loss $126.76 Average loss $21.12

Comission $160 Funding $13.3

Totals: 386.95 - 126.76 - 160 - 13.3 = + $86.89

My average loss for February was greater than previously, which was expected, since I have doubled my average loss from $10-15, to $20-30. My wins were trades that were taken in previous months, based on lower losses and lower volume.

I also had more than usual number of stocks stopped out. Some may have been due to poor analysis, and premature trading. This months I am really concentrating on only taking good trades, not forcing the trades.

I currently have nearly $500 in paper profits, and most of those were from dec/jan entries, but a couple of Feb entries are in the money now. Overall, on paper I am now down around $500.

Same lessons in place as before. I am not rushing trades now, I am trying not to think about a trade if I missed it.
My preparation before taking a trade are getting longer as there is more things to cover now.

I also got in contact with a company called "investor Unity" in Australia. I normally would not be promoting a business here, but they were great!!! They offer free education and advice for traders (YES FREE), they will get their commission if you go with some of their recommendations etc. I spoke to Adam (CEO I think...), who was super nice, and spend 20minutes on the phone with me giving me advice on brokers.

So in the next month I will be moving to Interactive Brokers who offers trades from $6 for Australian shares each way ( versus $25 that I pay now). Also will be looking at LCGmarkets for CFD ($5 per trade, versus $8 I currently pay)

This should help reduce my commission cost !!!

The plan for the next few months is to do all my long positions with Iteractive brokers, this way I do not pay interest, and all short positions via CFD (collect interest...!)

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #68 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

March 2013

This month ASX has been knocked around the strong s/r of 5000-5200. As the result of volatility a lot of my positions were closed/stopped, resulting in much greater number of trades so far, and this month may not be profitable, or may be a small profit.

I am also still struggling with entry points. My entry is mostly break outs, or sometimes if after a break out the gap is too large, and stock comes closer to the stop, i will open the position then. I really would like to have a firm idea/set of entry points. I am making it my aim now.

My stops are working well, and at the moment I cant complaint.

Early march, I have had an equal amount of long and short set ups occurring, and have had a few short positions opened, but in the last week, it seems to be only long positions setting up, and I am taking the view, that the next move is going to be up. I have opened a few positions in the last 1-2 days, and will wait for more than half of my current positions to be in the money or breakeven before opening any further.

My paper gain took a beating in March. Early march I was up $600, and my total paper loss was down to $400, I had 12 positions open. In 1-2 weeks 9 were closed, and my paper loss increased to $700 (due to stops, commisions etc)

1/3/13 DLX Long 250 at $4.08, stop $3.99. It reached all time high in Jan, then retraced for 2-3 weeks, and broke out the day before. Trailing stop on this one for now.

4/3/13

IFL long 115 at $8.27, stop $7.99. Stopped on 13/3/13 at $7.90. The stock was going ex-div a few days after I bought it, so I was ready (20cents), and the day before adjusted my stop by 20cents, to $7.79, then moved it to $7.90 with time. Total loss $42, div $22, = - $20

The stock closed above a major s/r of $8.05, retraced back, broke out again, and I though was consolidating above the s/r on increasing volume. I missed the break out.
Now it looks like a tripple top, and if it breaks past $8.50, i may buy again.

5/3/13

KMD hit stop at $1.88, by now I had added to my existing position. Total profit on both trades =$80
The day I got stopped out was a long tail candle, and 2 big days up afterwards, I was not confident enough to go back.... still looks like consolidation now, so may be a trade in the future.

6/3/13

NWH stopped at $1.99, loss $18. This did not hit an auto stop, but was a manual stop, since the day before stock closed bellow the recent lows after the break out candle. This was h/s pattern.

WDC long 90 @$11.31, stop $10.98. Stopped 15/3/13 at $10.98. $11 was looking like a major s/r, and it broke through, and was consolidating above it, then made a move up, which did not last, and the stock headed lower.

8/3/13

SYD short 320 at $3.18, stop $3.27. Stopped on 25/3/13 at $3.25. This looked like a continuation pattern after some falls. If anything I should have got out earlier. Continuation pattern should have only been 1-3 weeks, but this one kept going sideways....

11/3/13
FBU long 100 at $7.43, stop $7.14, stopped 13/3/13 at $ 7.14. Broke through major s/r of $7, and was consolidating over it, broke out on 10/3/13. Did not last and quickly reversed.
I made a stupid mistake with this one, and somehow opened the same position twice!!!! So my loss was double on this trade.... single loss of $29, or combine $59.... This game has no room for such stupid mistakes...

13/3/13

CGF long 150 at $3.93, stop recent low of $3.84. Stopped on 19/3/13 at $3.79, when it closed bellow its stop on friday the 16/3/13. There was a breakout past major s/r at $3.86, and I missed it, so i thought i will get in closer to the stop. May be there is a lesson here, to stay away from weakness straight after a break out.

DJS stopped with an auto stop at $2.92, total profit $62. Bough late Feb. It has since formed a flag, and broke out, but it was too far from stop for me to buy going sideways at the moment.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	dlx.JPG
Views:	26
Size:	106.9 KB
ID:	106807   Click image for larger version

Name:	ifl.JPG
Views:	17
Size:	103.8 KB
ID:	106808   Click image for larger version

Name:	kmd.JPG
Views:	21
Size:	99.6 KB
ID:	106809   Click image for larger version

Name:	nwh.JPG
Views:	16
Size:	104.3 KB
ID:	106810   Click image for larger version

Name:	wdc.JPG
Views:	14
Size:	113.3 KB
ID:	106811   Click image for larger version

Name:	syd.JPG
Views:	17
Size:	102.5 KB
ID:	106812   Click image for larger version

Name:	fbu.JPG
Views:	28
Size:	92.1 KB
ID:	106813   Click image for larger version

Name:	cgf.JPG
Views:	15
Size:	104.2 KB
ID:	106814   Click image for larger version

Name:	djs.JPG
Views:	16
Size:	100.2 KB
ID:	106815  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #69 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

I am finding it beneficial to do updates only 2-3 times per month. It gives me an opportunity to review my trades a few days/weeks later, and see it with fresh eyes. I am fairly happy with my trades in March, even though most have been unsuccessful....

14/3/13
CLO closed out at $1.27. Formed another long tail candle on that day, could be seen as another buy signal... Not confident enough to go back....

DUE stopped at $2.16. it consolidated through Feb and broke out late Feb, I went long, but then stock went sideway, and I got stopped out on 14/3/13, It has since broke up past recent sideway move, and recent high as well, so I went long on 21/3/13 300 at $2.25, stop $2.15.

18/3/13

AIO stopped at $5.47, total gain $170

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	clo.JPG
Views:	44
Size:	102.9 KB
ID:	106816   Click image for larger version

Name:	due.JPG
Views:	22
Size:	99.7 KB
ID:	106817   Click image for larger version

Name:	aio.JPG
Views:	20
Size:	111.9 KB
ID:	106818  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #70 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

In the last week of March I had 6 more trades, but because of some computer issues, it will be too hard to put up the charts.

March has been a "funny" month. I had a lot of trades, mainly because I got stopped a lot of the times. SO if I had the room I would put another trade on, instead of a closed one. Partially it is due to volatility/indecision in the markets. ASX reached a significant s/r of around 5100, and has been bouncing around it for a few weeks now. This has definitely caused problems. Should I stay away from new positions, while the indecision is happening? This will require some serious discipline and patience....

Was I over trading in March??? I dont know, I do not have rules for when I trade, and it may be something to look at in the future, but for now I follow my scans, and trade whatever I see as an opportunity. Currently most stock I have seen, are showing set ups for a move up.

My biggest problem emerging now is my entry point. This has been all over the place, and possibly contributed to too many trades in March. I really need a specific set of rules to define my BUY signal, every other step of my process I am currently happy with.


Total Trades 15, Wins 7, Losers 8
Win ratio 46%
Total Win $477 Dividends $35.56 = $ 512.56 Average WIn $68 With Div $ 73.15
Total Loss $ 217.85 Average Loss $27
Compare to last month my Average win has decreased, and Loss has increased......
Commission $ 16 x 15 = $240 Funding $32 Total$ 272
Net $ 512- 217 - 240- 32 = + $ 23

Stupid Trades 1 (Not Paying Attention) Put the same trade on twice, resulting in an extra loss of $29 + $16 commission
Without the stupid trade Win ration 50%, average wins same, Total loss $188, total commission $ 224 Total Win $68

Stupid trade cost me $29 + $16 = $45, Not a huge sum of Money, but my total account value currently is $1300, and that is 3.5%.

Fifth consecutive months of profit, though a tiny one this month.

Win ration has dropped in February to under 50%, so is March. I really would like to consistently see win ration over 50% I think it is possible.


In April I am moving to interactive brokers for my trading. This will reduce my transaction costs. Compare to above i will be saving $4 per closed trade, and since I will try and use mostly my funds, I will also save on interest. The short positions will be done through CFD's. So looking at above, I would have save $60 on transactions, and another $10 on funding.

I am moving all of my current trading funds into Interactive Brokers ($30k). This will give me an opportunity to value my trading based on my account size (%). I have no intention of going stupid with it, my account positions will remain the same, as well as the number of open trades I will have.


Lessons for April:

1. Work on buy signals - This is becoming pivotal, as I am noticing I am not consistent with entries. I will try and classify the entry signal now. Labels it is reversal, or continuations. Closer attention to s/r, and volume.
2. Patience - Pay more attention to indexes, to avoid areas of volatility and unnecessary trading.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #71 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

April continued where March left off, with lots more volatility, and more stocks being closed. In the last 3-4 weeks I gave back most of my paper profits. This has showed that my money management system is not working properly, and I did not protect my capital when things became volatile.

I also realised my trading so far has been mostly trend following, and it worked really well when there was a trend from December to March, but once we hit turbulence, I gave back most of my paper profits....
New rule to be added to the list now. The aim is to protect capital, as well as gains. I am happy with the current stop system, and will leave it as it is. The new rule is to only open new positions when at least 1/2 of all current positions are at/or above break even point. In case I have no open, positions then I will only open up to 3 new positions, and wait for at least 2 of them to become positive before moving on. If my positive positions get closed, and create imbalance in my trades, I will wait for balance to be restored before opening new positions.

From April I also moved to Interactive Brokers, so my cost should start going down as well.

1/3/13 bought DLX 250 at $4.08, closed on 19/4/13 at 4.50 + $100, It closed bellow the most recent low, it is going sideways, and I will look at it again if it breaks out from sideway moves

26/3/12 BSL long 150 at $4.76, sold 15/4/13 at $4.62 -$21, I bough on break out, but instead the stock is going sideways, will consider it again if goes above $5.

26/3/13 BEN long 70 at $10.35, stopped 8/4/13 at $10, - $ 25. Same as above, going sideways

26/3/13 BOQ long 70 at $9.72, stopped 5/4/13 at $9.35 - $25, same as above

25/3/13 MLD long 200 at $2.94, stopped on 4/4/13 at $2.82 - $24,

25/2/13 short DLS 300 $1.38, stopped on 2/4/13 at $1.23, + $ 46. Sold when it closed above the recent highs, was actually the peak, and stock continued down to within a few cents of its target of $1

7/4/13 SPN long 500 at $1.21, stop was $1.16, moved to $1.19, broke out of sideway range, target $1.40-1.50

18/4/13 BXB went long 120 at $8.30, initial stop was $8, but today there was a big move up, so stop being moved to $8.25. Targets $10, and $13

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	dlx.JPG
Views:	45
Size:	93.3 KB
ID:	109792   Click image for larger version

Name:	bsl.JPG
Views:	36
Size:	84.8 KB
ID:	109793   Click image for larger version

Name:	ben.JPG
Views:	39
Size:	88.9 KB
ID:	109794   Click image for larger version

Name:	boq.JPG
Views:	49
Size:	100.1 KB
ID:	109795   Click image for larger version

Name:	mld.JPG
Views:	36
Size:	96.2 KB
ID:	109796   Click image for larger version

Name:	dls.JPG
Views:	53
Size:	107.2 KB
ID:	109797   Click image for larger version

Name:	spn.JPG
Views:	35
Size:	103.8 KB
ID:	109798   Click image for larger version

Name:	bxb.JPG
Views:	54
Size:	112.5 KB
ID:	109799  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #72 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Has been a tough month of trading, started off well, but soon most positions were closed, and I gave up most of my profit gains, which has led to some new money management rules.

Total trades 6, win 2/loss 4
Win ratio 33%
Total Win $151.5 Div $ 0, Average win $ 75.75
Total Loss $ 95.4 Average loss $23.85


Comission $96 Funding $14.50

Totals: 151.4 - 95.4 - 96 - 14.5 = - 54.5

Win ratio has been falling, resulting in loss for the month. I think with better money management strategies, this should start improving. Average win has also gone down, I am putting it all down to increased volatility in the past 6 weeks.

From April all new opened trades have been in Interactive Broker, with only 1 trade still open in IGMarkets. So far 3 positions are at or above break even, and 2 are still have stops bellow break even. My rule allows me to enter into 1 more positions. But at the moment, I dont have any reasonable gains on paper, so for now I will wait for at least 1 more stock to go above break-even point, or significant gain on another stock, to give me a larger paper profit.

If all the above trades were done through IB, my total loss would have been - $16 due to lower transactions cost, and no funding costs.

There seems to be a few stocks setting up for moves up, but there a too much volatility still, and I am trying to avoid being whipped around. Will hold on to what I have now, and keep adjusting stops, until I am in a better position.

I am not going into May with any strong positions, but instead i have more rules, and ways to protect/preserve what I have.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #73 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Two stock that i bought in the last 1 week were ALL, and TAH due to chronic computer issues cant put up charts.

Today there has been strong moves u, and i now hace 4 stock above break even point, so will be looking to buy another 1-2 stocks in the next few days. Aim is not to rush , and only buy something that makes a lot of sense to me.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #74 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

I am now getting more comfortabel with IB, and able to get my statements , and work out my monthly records.

Through first 2 weeks of May I was travelling well, and had 4-5 positions that were above breakeven point, i then started adding more positions ( 2 more). But then, the markets ran into trouble, and I got stopped out of most of my positions and gave back all my gains. Feeling pretty miserable about it, I think next step is to make sure I take profits. If a stock reaches its target, I will take 50% off.

The trades for May

ALL broke out of consolidation/retracement, and I went long on 30/4/13 150 @$3.93, got stopped when it closed bellow recent lows around 25/5/13 at $4.07, slight profit of $9

GPT reacehd new highs since about 2008, had a small retracement over a couple of weeks, and started moving up. Went long 200 on 10/5/13 at $4.15, and got stopped out on 22/5/13 at $3.99 loss of $44

LEI this was a small gamble, it was a low risk, low probability trade. I was trying to pick a bottom on stock that had some big drops down to a level that has proven to be support in the past. Level of $18.63 has been a support over the past 6 months, and on 14/5/13 I went long 200 at $18.63, and put a stop at $18.52, the low for the day was $18.51, so I got stopped out same day, the bounce never happened and stock continued lower.

MGR long 400 at $1.7875 on 20/5/13 stopped 22/5/13 at $1.70. It broke above long term s/r of $1.77 a fe days before that, and showed support for this s/r line, but it did not hold, and got stopped out 2 days later.

SPN I initially bought it in early April 500 shares, when it broke above resistance at $1.20, i then trailed the stop, and had another buy signal on 19/5/13 and added another 500 shares to my position. What I was not ready for was a exdividend 2 days later, somehow I missed that and was not ready. I had first stop triggered at $1.23 on 22/5/13, and I closed the other 500 shares on 23/5/13 at $1.195, I collected $41 in dividends

TAH went long end of April 250 shares around $3.30, sold when the stock met resistance at $3.60, and closed bellow recent lows T $3.50 ON 23/5/13

BXB WENT LONG 120 SHARES AT AROUND $8.0 TOWARDS THE END OF aPRIL, GOT STOPPED OUT ON 26/5/13 AT $9.09

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	all.PNG
Views:	33
Size:	69.4 KB
ID:	114422   Click image for larger version

Name:	gpt.PNG
Views:	38
Size:	42.5 KB
ID:	114423   Click image for larger version

Name:	lei.PNG
Views:	37
Size:	61.4 KB
ID:	114424   Click image for larger version

Name:	mgr.PNG
Views:	34
Size:	49.9 KB
ID:	114425   Click image for larger version

Name:	spn.PNG
Views:	39
Size:	49.3 KB
ID:	114426   Click image for larger version

Name:	tah.PNG
Views:	37
Size:	40.8 KB
ID:	114427   Click image for larger version

Name:	BXB.PNG
Views:	37
Size:	44.6 KB
ID:	114428  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #75 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Another losing month.

Total closed trades 7, Win 3, Loss 4
Win/loss ration 42% Better than past few months
Total Win 158.2, Average Win $52.73
Total Loss $134 Average Loss $33.5
Dividends $41

Comission $78

Totals: $158 + $41 - $134 - $78 = -$13

I feels that in May i became a little reckless, and also have been of my game a bit, more distractions, less proper research.

Going into June I decided to reduce my stop loss, get back on my feet a bit more. So far total loss from July 2012 till now is around $850.

New plan for June:
1. Reduce stop loss amount, to overall reduce losses
2. Continue with the same money management plan
3. Back to thorough research, and more detailed explanations for taking each trade
4. Take profits at significant s/r

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #76 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Was stopped out of my last position on Tuesday, should have really been out of it on Monday, or even Friday last week, I think mentally with the lack of progress in the past 1-2 months, I was not in the right frame of mind, and let my losses run on the last trade. However, looking back at it now the markets were setting up for a correction in the last 1-2 months. By following my rules, and sticking to stops, I did not make any money in the last 2 months, and made 2 small loses. However, I am completely in cash, and sitting now and watching others bleed. I am taking the rest of the week off from trading, rest my mind, and regroup.

Until this week, my bias was long, and most of my trades were long. This week All Ords (aust index) closed bellow 130 moving average, and to me this is a bearish sign. i am also deciding on making a written plan every week on different scenarios that may play out, and trade accordingly. This weekend I will do my usual scan, gather stocks that are setting up for long/short moves. My current bias is bearish now, and the plan will be to go long for a quick profit on a rebound, and when/if things start to reverse enter my short positions.

My big loss was ALL
It was showing resistance at $4.30, so when it closed above it , i went long the following day, it also reversed that day, and closed bellow the lows of the last 2-3 days, i should have exited straight away, but waited another 2 days, and lost further 10cents, costing me a total of around $70 my biggest loss on any stock in a long time... Good sign to stop, regroup, refocus.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	all.PNG
Views:	40
Size:	66.7 KB
ID:	114675   Click image for larger version

Name:	All ords.PNG
Views:	35
Size:	50.5 KB
ID:	114676  
Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #77 (permalink)
 Melba swing 
Melbourne Victoria/Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: C-trader, MT4
Broker: Pepperstone
Trading: Forex, Indices
 
Melba swing's Avatar
 
Posts: 68 since May 2013
Thanks: 27 given, 27 received

Have you ever considered trading weekly charts ? That way you could spend all weekend scanning all markets possible and enter on Mondays, set and forget.

It seems you also favour break outs, that is fine however try and incorporate some swing trading or range trading too. Using limit orders, therefore your risk is much smaller. Consider finding setups in bulls that retrace back to a support area of a MA as an example, use limit order for entry.

On Weekly charts things move a lot slower, less noise and you will catch some massive moves and also trade less which may suit your lifestyle.

Cheers

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #78 (permalink)
223552
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Since I closed my last trade early June 2012, I have not taken any more trades, as markets stumbled, and it was safer to sit on the side, and mentally refocus.

Total Trades 1, Loss 1

Total loss $62, commission $12 = $74

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Beginners Trading Journal


Last Updated on July 10, 2013


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1,800 in prizes!

April
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts