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Beginners Trading Journal
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Beginners Trading Journal

  #31 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: stocks
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
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GrandSuperCycle View Post
-I understand what you mean about stock breaking out and then retracing before making the move. It seems like that's what Wall Street likes to do. When the breakout occurs, it draws in supply. They know where the stops are, and they like to hit them. I try to make sure that my stops are at an odd level, and not at a whole dollar amount. I try to keep them from obvious places like everyone else, or I just keep them as a 'mental stop'.
Have you ever tried using standards of deviation to determine stop placement?

At the moment I am using the lowest point on a candle of the break out as a stop loss. I guess there are many ways to set a stop loss, could be dollar amount, %, specific price etc. I honestly don't know enough about trading right now to make a choice between different stop options. Hopefully, something I will learn in the future. Now that I am avoiding trading break outs, I am seeing retracement back to s/r line in nearly 100% of cases!!! I wonder if anyone else has noticed that ... The big questions is when do you establish a position?

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  #32 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
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Platform: Interactive Brokers
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Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
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From September I carried forward 3 trades. 2 short positions in ORG and GWA, and one long position in WDC
The long position of WDC was a second re-entry position, as well as what I believe was a shake-out candle. This fits with my october plan of trading 2nd entry signal (when the s/r line is re-entered for a second time after initial break out)

GWA was opened on a break out in September, and was stopped out today with a major spike up. I will watch this stock, and if it goes down bellow s/r line again soon, then I will go short again. commission loss only $16

ORG was entered on a second break out, and has been stopped out today at a trailing stop loss, with a small profit.

New entries for 2/10/12

AMP long 150 shares at $4.38, stop $4.29 which is a low from the past few dips. First target is $5, then possibly $6.
It has broke through s/r line second time a few days back, but I missed it, and entered the position yesterday as it was close to stop loss.

OSH traded it in the past, and was stopped out. It has gone above s/r line yesterday 2nd time, and I went long today 80 shares, at $7.55, stop is $7.31.

Another observation from past few weeks, is I am being closed out of short position, and a lot of stock heading up.

Attached Thumbnails
Beginners Trading Journal-gwa.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-org.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-amp.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-osh.jpg  
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  #33 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Interactive Brokers
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Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


I was away for 1 week middle of October, and being busy with work the week before/after the break has caused my absence. I missed out on doing my weekly scan for 2 weeks, and towards the end of my break I managed to look at stock and entered some trades. They were slightly rushed as I thought I was missing out on possibly good trades, and I think next lesson is, "dont rush trades, there is always opportunity"

My 2 positions that were opened at beginning of October are still open AMP is in the money, and my stop is now above my entry point, giving me a small profit if I am stopped out.

OSH is still open, but just hovering above the stop loss. 2 weeks ago when all other stocks were moving up strongly OSH was pausing and not budging, I was not sure what to make of it, and was tempted to get out (at a small profit), but chose to sit it out. May be something to consider for future, If a stock is not behaving as I expect it to, then get out and re-evaluate. (Chart attached if someone wants to suggest something)

10/10/12

AAD broke through s/r 2nd time, went long 400 shares at $1.345, stop loss is $1.33 been trading in the range since between $1.34-$140, volume is increasing, if it breaks above $1.40 I my add to my position, and move stop loss. Target $1.50 first, then $2

SKE 2nd time break of s/r on 9/10/12, went long on 10/10/12 100shares at $2.49, stop $2.43, Target $3, then $3.50

BWP this one is giving me a whiplash .... I have traded it in the past, I thought I will give it another go... on 10/10/12 went long (against my plan) on a break out thinking it will just move up quickly because of consolidation, and got stopped out next day, on a swing down... Yes it is still going up, and I will only watch it now....


11/10/12

AQG I learned from this trade, and I will consider this setup a false break out now. When the breakout occurs on a red candle, I will consider it a false breakout. I have seen this happen a few times now. I traded this stock as I had planed on a 2nd break, but then was stopped out on a 15/10/12

12/10/12

Went short WTF, it closed bellow s/r 2nd time the day before, but on the same day I went short I got stopped out.
I looked at the chart a few times since, and I am happy with this trade, I followed my rules.



I am still holding most of positions entered in the last months, and that in itself is indications that I am doing something different. On the other hand, ASX has gone up nearly 10% since July 2012, when I started trading, and I am nearly $1000 down.... SO I have a LOOONG way to go.

Attached Thumbnails
Beginners Trading Journal-osh.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-aad.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-ske.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-bwp.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-aqg.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-wtf.jpg  
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  #34 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
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Platform: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: stocks
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

1 position that I have carried from September is WDC, it has been moving up, and I have moved my stop loss a few times now. I am using the previous low as a stop level.

15/10/12

Woolworth WOW went long 40 shares@ $29.28, stop 28.96. I missed the spot when the stock closed abover s/r line for the second time, and only saw it a week later. Since it was still close to the stop loss from early october (the lowe of the day before it closed above s/r for the 2nd time), I decided to go long. It has been sitting around/under s/r for the past 1-2 weeks, and yesterday it also broke above the descending trend line which could mean the end of consolidation and the next move up. This could be a good place to add to the position, but I am not sure where to place the stop. Target $35

18/10/12
CDD went long 40 shares at $7.93 stop $7.65, it has broke through s/r line for the second time on 17/10/12, i have gone long and the stop is the low of 17/10/12. The first break above s/r line was also a new high for this stock. I have always been uncomfortable with trading a stock at a new high, as I always thought I missed the boat. But recently I have been reading "Market Wizards" and one of the traders said " when a stock reaches a new high, the market is trying to tell you something..." So for November I will also start trading stocks that have reached a new high. Target $9, and then possibly $11-12 based on previous lows.

23/10/12

I am starting to see stock that are setting up for a short position, this could mean that we are approaching a period of consolidation, or early signs of reversal. However, most of my positions are still long.

IMD short 175 shares @ $1.505 with original stop of $1.60, I have moved that to around at $.145 now, mostly to protect my money since the stock has moved down, and closer to its target of $1.20


29/10/12 NUF I have traded this stock before, and recently it has gone above s/r line for the second time, I missed it by a few days, but still got a pretty good entry, and close to the stop. But was stopped out 2 days later with mostly commission loss. It is still hovering around s/r, so there still could be a trade there, with target of around $8 it is still promising. I will watch it for now.

29/10/12 stopped out of OSH. On friday 26/10/12 it had a sharp fall, and closed bellow my stop loss. I am still watching this stock, as it could be forming a wedge, and I may trade it again on a breakout of the wedge. It is also sitting around all time highs, so i can see how this area can be consolidation. Could be $1-2 profit if it moves up.


29/10/12 went NWH short 125 @ $2.08 stop at $2.20. Target $1

30/10/12

APA long 100 shares at $5.02 stop $4.89. This is a new formation I will be looking for in the future. I haved traded this stock in the past as a short, but what i did not see was the big picture. The stock reached a new high, then went into 6 months of consolidation mostly above the previous peak high, it also formed a wedge, and broke out of this pattern about 1 week ago on higher volume, and I decided to try to go long, with the recent lows as being the stop.It has also formed another pattern which I have been observing lately, and will look for it more. To summarise it, it is consolidation/wedge pattern sloping down a little just under or around 150day MVA. Second chart APA1 is a close up of this pattern, which also happened recently. A break out of the wedge, as well as move above MVA gives buy signal.

The aim now is to identify the trend, and find the best place to enter just before the move. No point in staying with a stock that is going nowhere.

Attached Thumbnails
Beginners Trading Journal-wdc.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-wow.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-cdd.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-imd.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-nuf.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-osh.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-nwh.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-apa.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-apa1.jpg  
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  #35 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: stocks
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

October 2012 stats

October Stats

Total Trades 8 Win 1/Loss 7 % 14.3, without stupid trade % would have been 16 % (same as Sept)
Stupid Trades 1 - No excuses for this kind of mistakes. Got the direction of the trade wrong, as soon as I realised it, I closed the trade and opened it in the right direction. COst $16 commission

Total Win $30, total loss $ - 72.40, Net $-42.40
Total commission on 8 trades $128, total interest paid on positions $ 1.83 Monthly total loss $- 172.23

Average win per trade $30, Average loss per trade $10.30
Without the stupid trade average loss would have been $11/trade

I was hoping for a better month than that, was really hoping for a break even. The positives though are: losses are diminishing every month. I currently have 8 positions open, and every one of those positions is positive, and 3 positions will give me a small profit if I m stopped out.

Plan for November
As covered previously. The new approach of buying stocks on 2 break through s/r is showing promising results.
1. I am considering trading breakouts again, however only for a small profit as I noticed they tend to move sharply up/down and then retrace. So the plan is to get in, make 1-2 times the stop and get out, could also use time stops, where if a stock is not moving after a couple of days, i get out.
2. I am boldly going, where I have not gone before.... I will trade new highs....I will look at stocks that have reached new highs, then wait for some sort of consolidation, and will trade a break out of that consolidation.
3. I will look for my new discovered signal where I see some sort of accumulation bellow 150 MVA, and will trade that break out (going long, or reverse for short)
4. Pay more attention to the index. Now that ASX has broken s/r of 4500 most stocks have been moving up, and made my trading a bit easier.

I have formed a nut shell idea about making money from trading. You need to identify the direction the stock is moving, that is fairly easy in most cases. The biggest problem is finding the right entry point. This is the spot from which the stock is likely to move quickly and decisively, and not break your stop. I don't want to get stuck in pull backs or consolidations I need to enter just before the stock resumes it move. That is the new quest for now.

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  #36 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: stocks
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

This month I am trying a few different setups. I am also noticing that I am not rushing into the stocks as much, and once I have identified a position I will still wait to get in at the most appropriate price for me. If I cant then I let the trade go.

2/11/12

I am slowly being stopped out of long positions.

WOW stopped out 40 shares at $28.87 loss $16

AMP stopped out at $4.44, I moved my stop to $4.50 as I thought that was s/r, but I may be should have used the previous low of $4.44 which has not been broken yet. I am looking to go long again in AMP when it breaks out up on high volume

5/11/12
SKE skilled group stopped out at $2.50 break even. The stop happened when the stock opened much lower than previous close and stopped me out, then went up. I decided to wait and re-evaluate the situation, I was happy to go back in if it started going up with higher volume, but that has not happened, and it has gone down bellow s/r line now? could this be a short?

More updates coming

Attached Thumbnails
Beginners Trading Journal-amp.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-ske.jpg  
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  #37 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Interactive Brokers
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Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Still catching up on posting all previous trades for the past 2 weeks

6/11/12 CRF Went long 200 shares @2.15, the day before it broke out of the descending wedge on higher volume, this is my buy signal for now. Stop is $2.10 which is the recent low. The stock is at its high, target is hard to set as there is no previous highs to base it on. Will use a trailing stop for now. In the last 2 days it has gone up above the sloping line, but the volume is low, so I will just manage my current position.

7/11/12 NAB STUPID TRADE, I can't believe I did it again, in a spur of the moment I thought I saw something and jumped in. Went long 100 shares at 24.95, thinking that I am close to the recent lows of low of around $24.83, and 2 days before that there was a possibly shooting star candle. I also went long 2 days before the stock went ex-dividend. 2 days later it tanked well past the 90cent dividend, I looked at the chart, realised I have no idea what I am doing ( no clear plan) and exited straight away on 12/11/12 at $23.78. Loss of about $120, and dividend of $90, total loss of $30.

9/11/12 FMG, This so far been the only stock that reached its target for me. I was very cautious not to have an attachment to this stock. I went short 90 shares at $3.9, after it closed bellow s/r line of $4 for the second time. My initial stop was the previous days high of $4.08, and now has been moved down to s/r $4.

13/11/12 Stopped out of CDD at $7.60, and in good time!!! Stock fell significantly a few days later. (good reminder to stick to stop religiously!!!!)

15/11/12 WES, I am looking to trade this stock on the long side, however, it has been weak in the past few weeks, and most markets falling, I thought there was a short position here. On 13/11/12 it closed bellow recent s/r of $33.97. I wanted to go short for a as I thought it may be weak for a few days/weeks, with possible falls to around $32-32.50, On 15/11/12 it spiked up to $33.45, and I went short at $34.41 with the stop being a high on 13/11/12 of $34.25. I knew this was a safe trade with the stock trading at most likely high for the day (range of 70cents). I thought if it closes above $34.25 on the day, then I get out next day with a small loss. The stock actually closed at $33.80 giving me a nice profit for the day. I still kept my stop at $34.25 which was hit on 20/11/12 and I exited with a small profit. It is heading up, and I am looking at going long soon.

Attached Thumbnails
Beginners Trading Journal-crf.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-nab.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-fmg.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-wes.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-cdd.jpg  
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  #38 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

28/11/12 NWH reached its target today of $1.50! I closed the position. The stock could be heading lower, but for now I will re-evaluate my position, see how it behaves. Baby steps for now. Profit $60+

Interestingly this is only my second position that has reached its target, and both were short positions... Stocks seem to be moving down much faster than up. So if I see a short position in the future I may have to act on it quickly.
November is shaping up to be a good month!!!

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  #39 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

In the last 3 days I made completely 3 different trades. I need to try all different scenarios to work out what will work best for me.

28/11/12 Long SUN (Suncorp) 80 shares $9.60, stop $9.47, the low from previous day. Trading 2nd re-entry. This is a significant s/r line at $9.5 spanning 4-5 yrs. Volume is increasing. Target $11, then possibly $12

29/11/12 WRT went long 250 shares at $2.98. The buy signal occurred 1/10/12 I was not looking for this particular set up then. It reached a new high, retraced and then broke out on increased volume. The stock then continued up and has been slowly retracing past month. If I did take the trade, I would have moved the trailing stop to $2.96 now (highlighted). I decided to go in now purely because the stock is close to a theoretical stop, with only a small exposure. Since it has not broken a theoretical stop, then it is still a potential up trend.

30/11/12 Went long BLD , it has formed a Head/Shoulder pattern, and broke out yesterday. Went long 80 shares at $4.04, with stop being $3.90 (yesterdays close), target is around $5.

IMD has reached its set target of $1.20, I have decided to hold on to it for another 2-3 days. The reason is it reached its target gradually, and today there was a large fall with increased volume to $1.10. I believe with this sudden falls, there will be panic in this stock and a few sharp candles down over the next 2-3 days, with possible gap down open on Monday. I have seen this a few times now. To protect my profit, if it goes back up above my previously set target of $1.20, i will close the position.

Attached Thumbnails
Beginners Trading Journal-sun.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-wrt.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-bld.jpg   Beginners Trading Journal-imd.jpg  
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  #40 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: stocks
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

November 2012 Stats


November was a good month :-)

Total trades 7
Wins 4/looses 3
Ratio 57% wins
Total wins $93.50, Average win per trade $23.37
Total Loss $56.60, Average loss $18.86
Stupid Trade 1, loss $117, Dividend $90, Funding $1.97, Commission $16, Net loss $27+$1.97+$16= $44.97
Commission for the month $112, Funding cost (cfd interests) total $10.56

Net Profit $36.9
Total loss due to commissions and funding$ 36.9-112-10.56 = -$85.66

The same numbers without the stupid trade
win ratio 66%
$ per win trade $ 23.37 total $93.5
$ per loss trade$14.8 total$29.6
total win $63.9, less commission $96 = -$32.1 less holding costs = -$40.69

This one stupid trade cost me dearly, I still cant believe I did it.
At this rate I will be losing money, even if I have a positive month. My commission is costing me a lot of money compare to the winnings. My commission is 0.01%, with $8 minimum per trade. That means I can trade up to $8000 value for $8 commission. My current average trade value is $200-500. That means I can trade between 20-3o times my current value to pay same commission. If i was to apply this to my above stats, even at 20 times, with the stupid trade....
Net profit $36.9 x 20 = $738
funding $10.56 x 20 = $211.2
Commission $112
Total Profit $ 415

Without the stupid trade
Net profit $ 63.9 x 20 = 1278
funding $ 8.59 x 20 = 171.8
commission $96
Total Profit $ 1010
If i was trading large, my 1 stupid trade would have cost me half of my profits.... I need to remember this for ever.

Going into December in a very healthy position with 1 stock past its target, and 1 stock near its target, 3 stocks well above their entry point, and when stopped out will give me a small profit.

I would like to see 3 months of consistent profits before I start increasing my stakes.

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