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Swing trading strategies (EOD, Papertrading)

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  #1 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
Berlin, Germany
 
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Hi everyone, I'll try to document some swing trades here over the next couple of months.

I've been trading for several years using longer-term trend following strategies in stocks with success. I sometimes take swing trades, but I'd like to do that more often and try out different things. (That's why it's going to be paper trading only for now.)

I. Swing trading indices

I intend to stick with Marc Rivalland's strategy, simply because I read his book a couple of years ago and after all that time it still is one of the best trading books I know. So, I will be using a simple bar chart with a 20-day moving average and an RSI(7), and look at the Point and Figure chart frequently.

Here's a short overview: the trend is up (down) when the market makes a higher high (lower low) in the bar chart; entries are always with the trend. There are two possible entries:
  1. change of trend: the market makes a new high in a downtrend, exceeding the last local high; the position is entered at the price of the previous high. Similar for a new low in an uptrend.
  2. continuation after a full corretion: a full corretion has taken place when the correction has at least three down days in an uptrend or three up days in a downtrend. (A down day is defined as having a lower low than the previous day; an up day has a higher high than the day before.) The position is entered via Buy STP or Sell STP orders above/below the corresponding bar.

With continuation trades, a stop loss order is placed below the signal bar's low; the change-of-trend trades don't have a fixed rule where to put the stop. Taking profits also doesn't have fixed rules. So, being good at placing the right stops and profit taking orders will be the major exercises. Generally, I will exit one half of a position after a meaningful point in the chart has been reached; the other half I will exit depending on price action, an overbought/oversold RSI(7), the action in the PnF chart or a fitted moving average.

For everyone who is interested in Rivalland's strategy: just google his name, and you will find his book as a PDF.


II. Swing trading stocks

I will be using the Traders Action Zone strategy (see here). A stock must be in a "nice looking" trend and trading between the MA(10) and EMA(30). I included an MA(50) for better visualization of the trend. Positions are entered via Buy STP or Sell STP, stop loss is placed below/above the bar's low/high. Every trade receives a take profit for half the position at 1.5 R. When the stock gets there, the stop loss for the rest of the position will be placed at 0.5 R, and I'll see how far I can ride the trend.


What else?

I'm using ProRealtime EOD for free. It sucks at Point & Figure, so I use stockcharts.com for that if available. I'm deliberately not including commissions or slippage (I can always do that later for all the trades).

Positions will not be entered based on position-sizing in dollar terms, because I am not trading a virtual portfolio, i.e. I won't place an order "100 AAPL Sell STP 591.00", but rather "AAPL Sell STP(ab) 591; SL(ab) 600; TP(a) 570", which means that the order consists of two separate positions (a) and (b), both of which have a stop loss at 600, and (a) also has a take profit order at 570. Each of the two positions represents one unit of risk R. Profit and loss is calculated in points and always in R, because that is the only way to compare the different trades in different stocks, indices, etc.. I've been doing that for some time now, and it works fine.


What's the greater plan?

First of all, I want to get this working for at least several months (I've been using the Rivalland strategy for a few months now). Then I'll try trading it with a small amount of real money, probably at a CFD broker with DMA.

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 Sawyer 
Berlin, Germany
 
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I'm following these instruments on a daily basis: DAX, TecDAX, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD.

DAX
Trend is still up, up day on Friday. PnF 3/1% reversed into X's and might be setting up an ascending double top breakout that might validate a break of the bearish trendline.


TecDAX
Uptrend still intact, Friday was an up day.

Dow Jones
Uptrend intact, big up day on Friday. PnF 3/1% still in O's, but no bearish signal has been given, yet.

S&P 500
Up day. Position (gh) was entered at 1325. I move up the stop loss orders of all three positions to below Friday's low, because any breakdown below this level would make the chart look really ugly, and I've been in the (b) position too long, anyway. SL(bgh) 1333. I've been trading the S&P for a couple of months, so here you can see the last entries and exits:


Nasdaq 100
Up day, trend is still up.

EUR/USD
Up day, RSI(7) was lowest at 23, so it could go down some more. SL(ab) 1.2400; TP(a) 1.2100. I've recently added the EUR/USD to the small list of instruments I look at daily:



Stocks
MOS. This one showed up on my screen today. All three moving averages are up, pullback has been between the 38% and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and 54 seems to be a support. MOS Buy(ab) STP 55.45; SL(ab) 54.15; TP(a) 57.42.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day. I‘m flat here; change of trend from up to down when the DAX goes below 6349.62, which would be a short signal. Short(ab) STP 6349; SL(ab) 6500; TP(a) 6200. The stop loss is placed rather arbitrarily, but I consider the risk-reward-ratio of 1 for the half position as a likely scenario; the stop loss for the remaining half would be moved to break even at this point. However, I'm bullish for the DAX in the short term.

TecDAX
Up day.

Dow Jones
Inside day; doesn‘t count. The PnF chart looks indecisive: price still above bullish trendline, but mainly sideways action; last real signal was a double-bottom break in May. This is the weakest of the three US indices PnF chart.


S&P 500
Inside bar, looking a bit more bullish than bearish. I like the PnF chart a lot more, because it has given two buy signals since the June low, and it shows rising bottoms. Thus, I‘m more bullish than bearish here, and I will try to give the open trades enough room by not drawing the stop losses closer: positions are still open, orders remain unchanged: SL(b) @1333. SL(gh) @1333.


Nasdaq 100
Up day. PnF is more bullish than bearish with rising highs and lows.


Stocks
MOS. Position has been opened at 55.45. Orders remain unchanged: SL(ab) @54.15; TP(a) 57.42.

ORLY. This one looks great: the gap has almost closed, it traded back to the 62.8% Fib retracement, which happens to be a support/resistance line. It could go back down to 75 (optimistic, I know). Short(ab) 90.25; SL(ab) 92.60; TP(a) 86.72.



Other stocks:

NKE. I like Nike, but the gap hasn‘t closed, yet. The area between the EMA(30) and the MA(10) is wide enough so it will probably show up on my screener again the next days.

KO. Possible long entry, but risk-reward-ratio would be pretty bad, and the trend seems to have weakened.

WLP. Strong move down, but I don‘t like the fact that it traded sideways into between the two moving averages.

MPC. Ahhh, no chasing!

POT. Great setup, retracement almost back to the 50% Fib level, bullish reversal bar today. Risk-reward-ratio would be pretty bad, so I‘ll have to pass.

ALXN. Looks great with a bullish reversal bar last Thursday, but Friday and today did not confirm a bullish move, so this could go sideways for some time.

FSIV. No chasing.

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 Sawyer 
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My schedule at work changes all the time, so some of the days I won't be able to look at the markets after the close; instead, I'll update orders and trades the next morning.

DAX
Up day. PF 3-1% is unchanged. The pending short order for a change-of-trend signal is still live: Short(ab) STP 6349; SL(ab) 6500; TP(a) 6200.

TecDAX
Up day.

Dow Jones
Bullish reversal outside day. PF 3-1% unchanged.

S&P 500
Same here. I just saw that I logged the wrong entry price of the (gh) position on 12.07.2012: it was 1342, and not 1325. I leave the open orders unchanged: SL(b) @1333. SL(gh) @1333.

Nasdaq 100
Up day, bullish price action. PnF unchanged.


Stocks
MOS. Gapped up nicely, TP(a) hit. SL(b) moved to +0.5 R at 54.80. Next significant resistance is at 60, so I might draw the stop loss closer after the next session.


OLRY. Order not executed, because the stop wasn‘t hit. Short signal is still live, though: Short(ab) 91.30; SL(ab) 93.05; TP(a) 88.67.

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 Sawyer 
Berlin, Germany
 
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DAX
Up day, breakout above last local high, PF 3-1% completed a breakout from a bullish catapult.

TecDAX
Up day, lagging behind the DAX.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Another bullish day, took out the last local high. RSI(7) is at 67, weekly RSI(7) at 60, so no overbought situation. Breakout from the PnF double top not before 1388. Stop loss orders unchanged: SL(b) 1333. SL(gh) 1333. Take profit unchanged as well: TP(g) 1380.

Nasdaq 100
Up day, still below recent high.

EUR/USD
I had forgotten to include the EUR/USD the last days. One problem is that ProRealtime updates Forex data at midnight, and I usually analyze the markets at 10 p.m. MEST or so after the US markets closed. Therefore, the whole of today‘s action is not included in the chart. (I don‘t think it matters in practical terms, as I do not look at Forex data during the day, and I‘m not placing any live orders.)

The last bar (yesterday) was the second up day. I will liquidate the (a) part of the position on the open of the next bar. SL(ab) 1.2400.


Stocks
MOS. Inside bar consolidation. SL(b) 54.80.

ORLY. No entry today. The stock has broken above the EMA(30), so there‘s no valid way to short here.

WLP. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement; trading at a major key resistance/support level at 64. Short(ab) 62.40; SL(ab) 63.90; TP(a) 60.15.


Other stocks

NKE. Gap has almost been closed, but I wouldn‘t get a decent risk-reward-ratio on the trade.

PM. Consolidation looks nice, but there‘s resistance at 91 directly overhead.

AET. Nice short setup, retracement back into the Trader‘s Action Zone, right now at a resistance level.

SYM. Retracement too small. Might go to 12, though.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Up day, took out last high.

Dow Jones
Up day, now above recent local high.

S&P 500
Up day, PnF 3-1% unchanged. Take profit of the (g) position was hit at 1380. Not really sure what to do with the remaining two positions. (b) was opened on June 11, so I‘ve been with it for over a month now, and it hasn‘t moved very far. A smaller pullback right now would be reasonable, so I will lock in profits of the (b) position by selling tomorrow market on open, and move the stop loss of (g) to break even at 1342. SL(g) 1342.


Nasdaq 100
Up day, also took out the last high. Nice to see the indices move in sync.

EUR/USD
Inside day. Sold the (a) position at 1.2296. SL(b) 1.2400.


Stocks
MOS. Consolidation is ongoing; starting to look like a bull flag, stop loss remains unchanged. SL(b) 54.80.

WLP. Position was opened at 62.40. SL(ab) 63.90; TP(a) 60.15.

I‘ve found lots of setups today, most of them shorts, though. Adding two shorts seems okay, considering that the markets are somewhat extended, and pullback might be likely anyway.

ADM. Pullback is a bit small, but price action was very bearish today, and the stock is looking like it‘s setting up a bear flag. Short (ab) STP 27.15; SL(ab) 27.80; TP(a) 26.17.


MRVL. Bearish price action today, pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Short(ab) STP 10.95; SL(ab) 11.45; TP(a) 10.20.


Other possible shorts today: MGM. JNPR. JCP. WLT. SYMC. CTRP. APKT.

Longs: AMT. AGNC.

Other Stocks

F. Looks like a nice short at first glance, but 9 is a key resistance level going back several years.

GM. Looks nice, too, but trend has weakened, and it‘s trading right at support.

ORLY. Still watching.

AET. Great price action for a short trade; had considered it as a potential setup yesterday.

VZ. This might become a long entry during the next couple of days.

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 Sawyer 
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Here's a summary with all trades so far:


Open trades:

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Down day. PnF 3-1 still in X‘s.

TecDAX
Inside day.

Dow Jones
Down day.

S&P 500
Down day. Position (b) has been sold at the open at 1376.51. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement would take us back to 1346, which is four points above the stop loss of the remaining (g) position, which seems reasonable. SL(g) 1342.

Nasdaq 100
Down day.

EUR/USD
Down day, new low, double bottom breakout unchanged. I just realized, that the ProRealtime delay in Forex data cost me an entry, because if I had analyzed the market yesterday, I would not have seen Friday‘s bar, which is updated at midnight. I can‘t enter now with hindsight bias. Moving the stop loss the just above Thursday‘s high: SL(b) 1.2330.

Stocks
MOS. Reversal bar right at support. I move the stop loss to below Friday‘s bar, because I expect MOS to move higher on Monday. SL(b) 56.65.

WLP. Bearish-looking inside bar. Orders remain unchanged: SL(ab) 63.90; TP(a) 60.15.

ADM. Position was opened at 27.14. SL(ab) 27.80; TP(a) 26.17.

MRVL. Stop order was triggered, entry at 10.95. SL(ab) 11.45; TP(a) 10.20.

I‘m 3:1 short right now, so I‘d like to balance my portfolio with one or two long positions. There are way more short setups than longs showing up in my scan results, which I consider a short-term bearish sign.

VZ. This looks nice: reversal bar right at the EMA(30) and support at 44. The trend is strong, and momentum is clearly upwards. Buy(ab) STP 44.70; SL(ab) 43.80; TP(a) 46.05.


LYB. One of the few long setups today. Trend is too weak, though.

TJX. Another possible long; risk-reward-ratio would be pretty bad, especially considering that I expect at least a couple of days with weaker action in the broad market. TJX might show up again during the next days, though.

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 Sawyer 
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Fancy profit/loss diagram


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 Sawyer 
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Only short update now, for lack of time.

DAX
First down day. I‘ll trade the change-of-trend signal: Short STP(ab) 6349; SL(ab) 6500; TP(a) 6120.

S&P 500
Position was stopped out at 1342.

Stocks
MOS. Position still open. Bullish outside bar. SL(b) 56.65.

WLP. Orders unchanged: SL(ab) 63.90; TP(a) 60.15. I don‘t like the reversal bar; considered closing at the open, but decided against it, becuase the setup still looks strong.

ADM. SL(ab) 27.80; TP(a) 26.17. Same here: reversal bar, but the setup is still valid, so I shouldn‘t close here.

MRVL. Another reversal bar... SL(ab) 11.45; TP(a) 10.20. I hope this is not a sign of strength.

VZ. Long position was not opened, but the whole setup is still valid: Buy(ab) STP 44.50; SL(ab) 43.65; TP(a) 45.78.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Inside day, ignore. Still setting up possible short: Short STP(ab) 6349; SL(ab) 6460; TP(a) 6120.

TecDAX
Inside day.

Dow Jones
Down day, trend is still up. PnF 3-1% is unchanged all the way. Long entry now possible.

S&P 500
Same here: down day, uptrend is still intact. Third down day, so a long entry is possible.

Nasdaq 100
Inside day.

Although the S&P and the Dow offer a possible long entry, I will not take it, as the stop loss would be too far away.

EUR/USD
Down day. SL(b) 1.2330.

Stocks
MOS. Stopped out at 56.65. Price action sucked today.


WLP. Bearish almost-outside bar. The chart would look a lot more unpleasant if price went above the mini short-term resistance above today‘s high, so I move the stop loss to 62.30. SL(ab) 62.30; TP(a) 60.15.

ADM. Bearish inside bar. Moving the stop loss closer here, as well. SL(ab) 27.00; TP(a) 26.17.

MRVL. All the charts look exactly the same... stop loss will be placed above today‘s high, as a move upwards would make price action look ugly. SL(ab) 10.80; TP(a) 10.20.

Either I‘m stopped out on all three trades tomorrow (all of them are at least break-even now), or the stocks will tank.

VZ. Stock went down, bearish looking bar, closed below the EMA(30), so setup no longer applies, order cancelled.

PSX. Pullback to key Fibonacci levels and a horizontal support. Buy STP(ab) 35.45; SL(ab) 34.55; TP(a) 36.80. The only long setup I really liked today.


PFE. Trend not strong enough, but pullback to support level; stop loss too wide, so no trade.

CTL. MRK. BAX. AMGN. Maybe later this week.

ZNGA. Trend is too weak.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Bearish outside day. Technically, it was a third down day, so a long entry is possible; the change-of-trend signal at 6349 would still be tradable.
Buy STP(ab) 6476; SL(ab) 6375; TP(a) 6680.
Short STP(ab) 6349; SL(ab) 6460; TP(a) 6120.


TecDAX
Up day.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Inside day. Ignore.

Nasdaq 100
Third down day, long entry is now possible here, too. This signal is far better today than that in the Dow and the S&P, so I‘ll go with it: Buy STP(ab) 2567; SL(ab) 2535; TP(a) 2633. All three US indices might trigger a change-of-trend signal, as they are trading close to their last swing low. Therefore: Short STP(ab) 2522; SL(ab) 2570; TP(a) 2470. The Nasdaq looks weaker than the S&P, but stronger than the Dow, so I guess it‘s a good choice for now.

EUR/USD
First up day. SL(b) 1.2330.

Stocks
WLP. Nice gap down. The (a) position has hit its take profit. I‘ll close the (b) position at the open, because I believe that a pullback is likely, and the way back to the low will take a while.


ADM. Position is still open; I‘ll leave the orders unchanged. SL(ab) 27.00; TP(a) 26.17.

MRVL. Stopped out at 10.80.


PSX. Position was opened with a small gap up at 35.60. SL(ab) 34.55; TP(a) 36.80.

URBN. Actually, this has no strong, established trend; rather, we‘ve seen a first leg upwards and a good 38.2% retracement back to a key support level at 30, which is going back several years. I‘ll give it a try. Buy STP(ab) 30.45; SL(ab) 29.70; TP(a) 31.58.



Results
List of open trades


List of closed trades


Stats

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
What the hell? I got stopped into a short position (ab) at 6349 as the DAX went below its recent low, which caused a change-of-trend signal. The DAX reversed up, I got stopped out with (ab) at 6460 before finally entering a long position, again (ab) at 6476. The original take profit was set to 6680 for (a), but considering the bullish action today I will up that to 6750. Technically, the DAX is in a downtrend, as it went below 6349, but I hadn‘t considered that when entering the orders. SL(ab) 6375; TP(a) 6750.

TecDAX
Big up day here as well.

Dow Jones
Up day, trend is still up. PnF 3-1% is unchanged, still in X column.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day. I‘ve chosen the worst index, because it gapped up and I got a bad fill at 2588.20. SL(ab) 2535; TP(a) 2633.

Stocks
WLP. Sold the remaining (b) position at 53.88.


ADM. Stopped out at 27.04.


PSX. Slowly creeping upwards. Orders unchanged: SL(ab) 34.55; TP(a) 36.80.

URBN. Looks awful. Opened with gap up and reversed lower. Stopped in at 30.74. Moving the SL up to 32.30, so I get a decent risk-reward-ratio. SL(ab) 32.30; TP(a) 31.58.

I'm long-only right now without a short position. I don't like what the market is doing, so I'm not going to get into more trades.

Results
The WLP position was lucky enough. Right now I'm at +18.48 R, but WLP alone contributed 10.39 R to this. Clearly a lucky outlier. But I'm glad the project has had a good start.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day, price action continues to look bullish. My take profit at 6680 would have been hit, but I moved that up tp 6750, which has not been taken out so far. Greed? Anyway, I guess that another 160 points upwards is likely after Friday‘s price action. I‘m moving the stop loss to below Friday‘s bar. SL(ab) 6513; TP(a) 6750.

TecDAX
Made a new high.

Dow Jones
Bullish up day, closed above last local high. PnF 3-1% made a breakout from its double top.

S&P 500
Same here: new high, PnF 3-1% broke out of its triple top.

Nasdaq 100
Up day, no new high, yet. Another reversal on the PnF chart, but no breakout. Take profit of the (a) position was hit. Due to the bad entry, I only got +0.84 R on this one. Moving the stop loss to 2589 for break-even. SL(b) 2589.


EUR/USD
I got stopped out at 1.2330 for a small profit of +0.35 R. Trend has reversed to up.


Stocks
PSX. Moving higher, TP(a) has been taken out, so I move the SL of the remaining (b) position to 35.08. SL(b) 35.08.


URBN. Another reversal bar, but with a higher close. I still don‘t like the price action in URBN. Moving the stop loss to break even level. SL(ab) 30.75; TP(a) 31.58.

MNST. This is the only setup I found, and it‘s short, which is perfect to add to my long-only portfolio of positions. The trend is young with a series of lower lows and lower highs, all three moving averages are sloping down, and price retraced back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Short STP(ab) 67.70; SL(ab) 69.70; TP(a) 64.70.

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 Sawyer 
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Results

Open trades


Closed trades


Stats


Diagram

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Made a new local high. Position (a) hit the take profit at 6750 for a profit of +2.71 R. I‘m speculating that the index will move higher, so I‘ll give the remaining (b) position enough room, SL order unchanged. SL(b) 6513.

TecDAX
Small up day.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day; no new local high; PnF 3/1% unchanged. I‘m expecting a pullback, and I don‘t like the fact that the Nasdaq is lagging. I‘ll exit tomorrow at the open.

Stocks
PSX. Moving up, right now trading at the last high. It‘s either breaking out or it won‘t, so I‘ll draw my stop closer. SL(b) 36.80.

URBN. Got stopped out here for a penny at 30.75.


MNST. Stopped in at 67.70. SL(ab) 69.70; TP(a) 64.70.

I looked at about 100 stocks that came out of my secreener, but I didn‘t like any setup.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day, looks like another top right now. SL(b) 6513.

TecDAX
Same here, bearish engulfing bar: a top is likely.

Dow Jones
First down day.

S&P 500
First down day.

Nasdaq 100
Bearish inside bar. Sold at the open at 2643.28 for a profit of +1.04 R. This trade sucked: if I had been stopped in without a gap, profit on the (b) position would have been +2.44 R instead.


Stocks
PSX. Bearish reversal day right at the previous high. Looks like the stock is going lower over the next days. Exit at the open tomorrow.

MNST. Going lower. Orders remain unchanged. SL(ab) 69.70; TP(a) 64.70.

Not many candidates today.

CSCO. This was one of the first stocks I ever bought, back in 2001 at around $38, and I sold it with a loss years later. Now I want my money back The chart looks perfect: hit the 61.8% Fib retracement, which happens to be a short-term resistance level. Short STP(ab) 15.80; SL(ab) 16.15; TP(a) 15.27.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
First down day. PnF 3-1% still bullish.

TecDAX
Up day.

Dow Jones
Second down day.

S&P 500
Second down day.

Nasdaq 100
First down day, bearish engulfing.

Stocks
PSX. Gapped up; position (b) closed as planned at 39.08


MNST. Nice down day. The take profit of the (a) position was hit; the stop loss of the remaining (b) position is placed at +0.5 R as planned. SL(b) 66.70.

CSCO. Stopped in at 15.80. SL(ab) 16.15; TP(a) 15.27.

SU. The only long setup today. Retracement back to support at 30.50; 38.2% Fib retracement hit. Risk-reward-ratio is not too great, but I don‘t have many long options, and my portfolio needs at least one long position. I‘m using a STP LMT order, so I won‘t be stopped in with a larger gap, again. Buy STP(ab) 31.20 LMT 31.25; SL(ab) 30.45; TP(a) 32.40.


WLT. Standard short setup with retracement back to resistance around the 50% Fib level. Short STP(ab) 33.78 LMT 33.75; SL(ab) 35.08; TP(a) 31.75.


Results
I'm looking at +27.32 R so far; 65% winners; 24% losers. Average p/l is 0.74 R; average holding period is 6 days and 13 hours.

I'm afraid it all looks too good to be true...

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day, trend still intact, big bearish reversal.

TecDAX
First down day.

Dow Jones
Third down day, long entry is possible. PnF 3-1% is unchanged.

S&P 500
Third down day; long entry possible. PnF 3-1% hasn‘t changed. I‘ll take the entry: Buy STP(ab) 1376; SL(ab) 1354; TP(a) 1400.



Nasdaq 100
Second down day.

Stocks
MNST. Went down some more. I hope it‘s not going to run out of momentum. SL(b) 66.70.

CSCO. Nice gravestone doji; close shave, though, as the high was 16.11, and my stop is residing at 16.15. SL(ab) 16.15; TP(a) 15.27.

SU. I wasn‘t stopped into the trade; today‘s bar was larger than yesterday‘s, so my risk-reward-situation changed for the worse, and I‘m not going to put in an order today.

WLT. No entry here, either. Same as SU: today‘s bar is too large for a decent risk-reward-situation.

No new setups today.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day; bullish reversal. The (b) position is still open. Moving the stop loss to below yesterday‘s low. SL(b) 6596.

TecDAX
Up day.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day; position was opened as planned at 1376. SL(ab) 1354; TP(a) 1400.

Nasdaq 100
Up day with up gap again.

Stocks
MNST. Stopped out at 66.70.


CSCO. Stopped out here, too. 16.15.


Either I‘ve become too picky or setups have in fact become fewer and fewer over the last days. I guess for now I‘ll have to attribute it to the up-down-up-down action in the broad market. Two examples:

LVS. Looks good at first glance, but 36 is definitely a support area that has been tested at least four times in 2011, and recent price action looks like a fakeout with a quick reversal, so this is most definitely not a short candidate.

CLF. Almost the same.

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 Sawyer 
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Results

Open positions


Last couple of closed trades


Fancy profit/loss diagram


Stats
Not the prettiest of tables, but I guess it serves its purpose.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day. Stop loss unchanged: SL(b) 6596.

TecDAX
Up day.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day. Take profit of the (a) position was missed by .37 points. There‘s not enough follow through, so I exit both positions at the open on Tuesday.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

Stocks
BTU. Back at the 61.8% retracement in a strong downtrend. Short STP(ab) 21.15; SL(ab) 22.05; TP(a) 19.80.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day. SL(b) 6596.

TecDAX
Up day.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day. Positions (a) and (b) closed at 1394.46 for a profit of +0.84 R each.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

Stocks
BTU. Small bar with a slightly higher high. The setup is still good. Short STP(ab) 21.50; SL(ab) 22.05; TP(a) 20.67.

ABX. Short STP(ab) 33.50; SL(ab) 34.20; TP(a) 32.45.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Inside bar. RSI(7) daily is 71.45; the upwards momentum has definitely weakened, but I‘ll stay with the trend for now. SL(b) 6596.

TecDAX
First down day.

Dow Jones
First down day.

S&P 500
Inside day; ignore.

Nasdaq 100
Inside day.

Stocks
BTU. Entered short at 21.50. SL(ab) 22.05; TP(a) 20.67.

ABX. STP was not hit, so no entry. Made a reversal bar right at the EMA(30) and a resistance level, just below the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Short STP(ab) 33.65; SL(ab) 34.75; TP(a) 32.00.

TCK. Solid downtrend, bounce back to a resistance level at 29, nice doji yesterday. Short STP(ab) 28.55; SL(ab) 29.33; TP(a) 27.38.


T. This looks a bit premature, because the retracement is small (hasn‘t hit the 38.2% level), and there‘s no support. But it did form a nice little reversal bar, and the last move up has been strong. Buy STP(ab) 37.55; SL(ab) 37.00; TP(a) 38.38.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Second down day.

Dow Jones
Inside day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

Stocks
BTU. Ooops, stopped out at 22.05.

ABX. Entered short at 33.65. SL(ab) 34.75; TP(a) 32.00.

TCK. Entry not triggered; setup no longer applies, orders cancelled.

T. Inside bar. Buy STP(ab) 37.45; SL(ab) 37.00; TP(a) 38.13.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Inside day. The (b) position is still open. SL(b) 6596.

TecDAX
Inside day.

Dow Jones
Second down day.

S&P 500
First down day.

Nasdaq 100
First down day.

Stocks
ABX. Bullish bar; doesn‘t look good for my position. SL(ab) 34.75; TP(a) 32.00.

T. Stopped in at 37.45. SL(ab) 37.00; TP(a) 38.13.

VMED. Strong uptrend, back at 38.2% Fibonacci level. Buy STP(ab) 27.22; SL(ab) 26.75; TP(a) 27.93.


APOL. Strong move down; it could retrace some more, but I‘ll take a chance. Short STP(ab) 27.90; SL(ab) 28.70; TP(a) 26.70.


Results
Open trades


Recently closed trades


Fancy profit/loss diagram


Statistics

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
First down day.

TecDAX
Third down day, long entry possible. PnF 7-3 is strong (X column, breakout from a triple top). Buy STP(ab) 783; SL(ab) 772; TP(a) 807.



Dow Jones
Inside day.

S&P 500
Inside day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

Stocks
ABX. Stopped out at 34.88 for -2.24 R.

T. Small inside bar. SL(ab) 37.00; TP(a) 38.13.

VMED. No entry. Setup still valid. Buy STP(ab) 27.22; SL(ab) 26.75; TP(a) 27.93.

APOL. No entry; I don‘t like how the stock is drifting sideways.

I‘ll pause stock trading for a couple of days until the market decides to move somewhere.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day, new high.

TecDAX
Inside day, ignore. Long setup still possible: Buy STP(ab) 783; SL(ab) 772; TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

Stocks
T. Sideways action. SL(ab) 37.00; TP(a) 38.13.

VMED. Entered long at 27.22 as planned. SL(ab) 26.75; TP(a) 27.93.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
First down day.

TecDAX
Down day. Buy STP(ab) 780; SL(ab) 772; TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Sideways.

S&P 500
Inside bar.

Nasdaq 100
Inside bar.

Stocks
T. Stopped out.

VMED. Slowly moving upwards.

I still think that this is a bad time for daily swingtrades. I‘ll wait until the broad market finally starts to move.

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 Sawyer 
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Pretty short on time today. No updates, TecDAX position was opened, but orders remain unchanged.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day. I‘m drawing the stop loss closer below the congestion. SL(b) 6875.

TecDAX
Up day. Moving the stop loss to break even. SL(ab) 780; TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day,

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

Stocks
VMED. The (a) position was closed with a profit of +1.5 R; the stop loss of (b) is moved to +0.5 R. SL(b) 27.46.

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 Sawyer 
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Things are a bit dull at the moment. I'm not going to trade stocks until the markets are moving again.


DAX
Up day. SL(b) 6875.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(ab) 780; TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
First down day.

S&P 500
First down day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

Stocks
VMED. Stopped out with the remaining (b) position at 27.46.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day. Drawing the stop loss closer: I don‘t like how this market is creeping upwards without any real convition. SL(b) 7040.

TecDAX
Inside day. SL(ab) 780; TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Up day, first down day.

S&P 500
Same here.

Nasdaq 100
And here.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Stopped out at 7040 for +5.58 R.


TecDAX
First down day. SL(ab) 780; TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Second down day.

S&P 500
Second down day.

Nasdaq 100
Second down day.

I‘m still staying out of individual stocks for now.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Second down day.

TecDAX
Second down day. SL(ab) 780; TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Third down day; long entry possible.

S&P 500
Third down day; long entry possible.

Nasdaq 100
Third down day; long entry possible.

I‘m not going to open a position in one of the US indices, because the counting of the correction days is a bit weak (first down day was also an up day), so I want to see a stronger pullback.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Third down day. RSI-7 weekly is above 70, so I‘m not going to take any long trades here.

TecDAX
Nearly stopped out, but the low was 780.25. Uptrend is still valid, long entry is possible, weekly RSI-7 is 61. The (ab) position is still open; there‘s a valid setup, so I‘ll open another position: Buy STP(cd) 788; SL(cd) 780; TP(c) 810. SL(ab) 780; TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Down and up day.

S&P 500
Down day.

Nasdaq 100
Down and up day.

Long entries would be possible in all three US indices, but the risk reward ratio wouldn‘t be good enough.

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 Sawyer 
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I didn‘t get around to update the trades, yesterday.

DAX
Inside day; ignore.

TecDAX
Position (cd) was entered yesterday as planned at 788. SL(abcd) 780; TP(c) 810. TP(a) 807.


Dow Jones
Down day.

S&P 500
Down day.

Nasdaq 100
Down day.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Down day.

TecDAX
Up day. There's no clear trend to catch, so I'm playing safe, i.e. I'm drawing all stop losses closer to the break even of the (cd) position. SL(abcd) 788; TP(c) 810. TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Inside day; ignore.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Inside day; ignore.

SMI
I‘m including the Swiss Market Index from now on. Fifth down day today. A long entry is possible, but the risk reward ratio is not good enough.

Stocks are still not a good play, as the markets aren‘t moving in any clear direction.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Down day. Long entry would be possible, but bad risk-reward ratio.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(abcd) 788; TP(c) 810. TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Down day.

S&P 500
Down day.

Nasdaq 100
Down day.

The US indices are moving sideways; I‘m staying out of stocks.

SMI
Down day. RSI-7 weekly is 65, the SMI has shown strength against the US markets. Buy STP(ab) 6438; SL(ab) 6414; TP(a) 6550.


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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Moving up, new high. Orders unchanged. SL(abcd) 788; TP(c) 810. TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

SMI
The pending stop buy order from Friday has not been executed. Long entry would be possible, but only with a bad risk-reward-ratio.

I‘m still staying out of stocks for now.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Down day.

TecDAX
Down day. SL(abcd) 788; TP(c) 810. TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Down day.

S&P 500
Down day.

Nasdaq 100
Down day.

SMI
Up day.

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 Sawyer 
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Things are pretty boring, but I don't want to get into positions during a sideways market like this.


DAX
Down day.

TecDAX
Bullish engulfing. SL(abcd) 788; TP(c) 810. TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Inside day.

Nasdaq 100
Inside day.

SMI
Inside day.

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 Sawyer 
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Looks like it gets time to enter some stock swing trades again. I'll scan the market on the weekend.


DAX
Strong up day; new high; PF 3-1% with a breakout from a double top.

TecDAX
Up day, breakout to a new high. SL(abcd) 788; TP(c) 810. TP(a) 807.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

SMI
Up day.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Up day. Positions (a) and (c) closed at their take profit levels for profits of +3.38 R and 2.75 R, respectively. Stop losses remain unchanged: SL(bd) 788.


Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
I‘ll include the All Ordinaries index from now on.

Stocks
WDC. Retracement back to support. Seems a bit risky, because the previous bullish bar didn‘t have any follow through, but only a bearish inside bar. Buy(ab) STP 42.75 LMT 42.80; SL(ab) 41.45; TP(a) 44.70.


SO. Standard setup. Short(ab) STP 45.80 LMT 45.75; SL(ab) 46.20; TP(a) 45.20.

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 Sawyer 
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Results

Open trades


Last couple of closed trades


Stats


Fancy profit/loss diagram

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Inside day, ignore.

TecDAX
Up day.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Down day.

SMI
Up day.

Stocks
WDC. Stop not triggered, setup is still good. Buy(ab) STP 42.20 LMT 42.22; SL(ab) 41.10; TP(a) 43.85.

SO. Entered short at 45.80. SL(ab) 46.20; TP(a) 45.20.

WLT. Short(ab) STP 34.05 LMT 34.00; SL(ab) 36.35; TP(a) 30.60.

KBC. German TecDAX stock Kontron AG. Broke support, bearish doji today, doesn‘t look like support is going to hold. Short(ab) STP 3.75 LMT 3.73; SL(ab) 3.89; TP(a) 3.54.

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 DaveTrading 
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Hello @Sawyer,
one question about the way you search potential stocks candidates, do you use a ProRealTIme screener? Or is It done manually?

Great thread, Thank you.

DaveTrading.

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 Sawyer 
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I'm using a simple ProRealtime screener:
 
Code
clong=low<average[10](close) and high>ExponentialAverage[20](close) and close>average[50](close) and average[50](close)[1]>average[50](close)[2]
cshort=high>average[10](close) and low<exponentialaverage[20](close) and close<average[50](close) and average[50](close)[1]<average[50](close)[2]

criteria=close
SCREENER[clong or cshort] (criteria AS "close")
I don't have any experience with ProRealtime's programming language, so that was the best I could do. Seems to work fine. I screen the "US Tech 150" and "US Non-tech 200" plus the German indices.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
First down day. SL(bd) 788.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Inside day.

Nasdaq 100
Second down day.

SMI
First down day.

All Ordinaries
Inside day.

Stocks
WDC. Position opened at 42.20. SL(ab) 41.10; TP(a) 43.85.

SO. Nice move down. SL(ab) 46.20; TP(a) 45.20.

WLT. Inside day. Setup is still good. Short(ab) STP 34.60 LMT 34.55; SL(ab) 36.35; TP(a) 31.97.

KBC. Entered at 3.732. SL(ab) 3.89; TP(a) 3.54.

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 forexgrinder 
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Sawyer View Post
I'm using a simple ProRealtime screener:

Hello,

I'm following your thread for some time, quite interesting. Thanks for the prorealtime screener code.

Another suggestion, since TAZ has it the stockcharts scanner to filter by trend strength, just add:

and ADX[10] > 20.0

at the end of your cshort and clong lines.

He uses SMA(200) as additional filter - I can see you are not applying this rule? (i.e. you have a short setup on SO, but price was still above sma(200)).

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 Sawyer 
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forexgrinder View Post
Another suggestion, since TAZ has it the stockcharts scanner to filter by trend strength, just add:

and ADX[10] > 20.0

at the end of your cshort and clong lines.

He uses SMA(200) as additional filter - I can see you are not applying this rule? (i.e. you have a short setup on SO, but price was still above sma(200)).

Thanks for the suggestions!

I'm not strictly following TAZ rules, though. I like to get lots of candidates from my screeners, and any additional criteria would only narrow the field of potential setups. Adding ADX as a trend strength filter is a great way to screen through >500 or 1000 stocks, but I'm only screening about 300.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(bd) 788.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Third down day. Long entry possible. Buy(ab) STP 2799; SL(ab) 2775; TP(a) 2850.


SMI
Second down day.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

Stocks
WDC. Bearish reversal day. I expect to be stopped out tomorrow.

SO. Take profit was hit; stop loss is moved to +0.5 R: SL(ab) 46.60

WLT. Position entered at 34.60. SL(ab) 36.35; TP(a) 31.97.

KBC. Stopped out at 3.89.


VRSN. Pullback to support at 47. Buy(ab) STP 47.80 LMT 47.85; SL(ab) 47.05; TP(a) 48.93.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
First down day.

TecDAX
Second down day. SL(bd) 788.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day. Position was opened at 2799. SL(ab) 2775; TP(a) 2850.

SMI
Third down day. Entry would be possible, but I‘d like to see a new low before I go long.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

Stocks
WDC. Stopped out at 41.10.

SO. Typo: Stop loss should‘ve been 45.60 instead of 46.60. So I got stopped out on the remaining (b) position.

WLT. Got stopped out here as well.

VRSN. Position opened at 47.80. SL(ab) 47.05; TP(a) 48.93.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Up day. Moving the stop loss closer. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day. Position (a) was closed at take profit. SL(b) 2775.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

Stocks
VRSN. Inside day. SL(ab) 47.05; TP(a) 48.93.

I don't really feel comfortable with my stock swingtrades. The last three trades were suckers, and I don't see many good setups, which makes me wonder if I'm too chicken to take the trades or whether my strategy isn't suited for the current market situation.

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 Sawyer 
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Open trades


Recently closed trades


Stats


Fancy profit/loss diagram

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
First down day.

TecDAX
Inside day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
First down day.

S&P 500
First down day.

Nasdaq 100
Inside day. SL(b) 2775.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

Stocks
VRSN. Stopped out.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Second down day.

TecDAX
First down day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Second down day.

S&P 500
Second down day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day. SL(b) 2800.

SMI
First down day.

All Ordinaries
First down day.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day. SL(b) 2800.

SMI
Second down day.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Third down day. I‘m still long the TecDAX with two positions, so I‘m not going to put on a long order here.

TecDAX
Second down day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Third down day; long entry possible.

S&P 500
Third down day. I do have one long position in the Nasdaq 100, so I guess opening up another trade in the S&P would be okay, but the weekly RSI-7 is at 76, and the other indices are overbought as well. Therefore, no trade.

Nasdaq 100
First down day. SL(b) 2800.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
Inside day.

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 Sawyer 
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I forgot yesterday‘s update.

DAX
First down day.

TecDAX
First down day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Fourth down day.

S&P 500
Fourth down day. Weekly RSI-7 is still overbought, so no entry.

Nasdaq 100
First down day. SL(b) 2800.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
Second down day.

I‘m not looking for stock swing trades: it takes a lot of time, which I currently don‘t have; the markets are still not really moving unless you count one +2% day followed by a lot of chop followed by yet another +2% day followed by chop, which is the case since early August, as a good trend.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Second down day.

TecDAX
Inside day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Fifth down day.

S&P 500
Fifth down day.

Nasdaq 100
Second down day. SL(b) 2800.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
Third down day. Long entry possible. RSI-7 weekly is at 63. PnF 3-1% shows a sideways market; price has broken above a bearish trendline, but this breakout has not yet been confirmed. Buy(ab) STP 4410 LMT 4411; SL(ab) 4389; TP(a) 4440.


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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Third down day. Long entry possible, but not a good risk-reward situation.

TecDAX
Second down day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Sixth down day.

S&P 500
Sixth down day.

Nasdaq 100
Changed into a downtrend today, as it went below the recent local low. Position (b) has been stopped out with a small gap at 2798.93.


SMI
First down day.

All Ordinaries
Up day. Position was entered at 4410. SL(ab) 4389; TP(a) 4440.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Inside day; ignore. Long entry possible, but I‘m still long the two TecDAX positions, so I‘m not going to add more exposure to the German markets.

TecDAX
Inside day; ignore. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day. Downtrend still intact.

SMI
Inside day; ignore.

All Ordinaries
Up day. SL(ab) 4389; TP(a) 4440.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Fourth down day.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Seventh down day.

S&P 500
Inside day; ignore.

Nasdaq 100
Inside day; ignore.

SMI
Second down day.

All Ordinaries
SL(ab) 4389; TP(a) 4440.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Second up day. Still in downtrend.

SMI
Second down day. Change to downtrend below 6470.

All Ordinaries
Up day. SL(ab) 4389; TP(a) 4440.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Eigth down day.

S&P 500
Seventh down day.

Nasdaq 100
Down day; still in downtrend.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
I‘m going to have to remove this trade from the documentation, although it looks great. I either haven‘t paid enough attention or ProRealtime screwed me (I believe the former). Anyway, nothing looks like it did before: the entry is on a day when price didn‘t even hit the entry STP, the stop loss doesn‘t make sense, etc.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Inside day; ignore.

TecDAX
Inside day; ignore. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Inside day; ignore.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Up day.

SMI
No data.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Up day.

S&P 500
Up day.

Nasdaq 100
Fifth up day.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
Up day.


Results
There haven't been many trades, so there's no huge change in overall results. I'm going to post an update as soon as I have a couple of new trades.

Stock trades
I've been thinking about this for a while. First of all, I don't have enough time to look for stock swing trades every evening. Second, I guess I haven't been selective enough. So, I will screen the market maybe once or twice a week and enter only a few trades.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Down day. Trend is still up. Change to downtrend below 7215.

TecDAX
First down day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
First down day.

S&P 500
First down day.

Nasdaq 100
Down day.

SMI
No data.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

Stocks
CSTR short. Pullback to resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci level. Next support is at 40. Short(ab) STP 45.90 LMT 45.85; SL(ab) 47.55; TP(a) 43.30.


PBR long. Price has pulled back on a weak move to the 50% Fibnoacci level and support. Buy(ab) STP 23.00 LMT 23.05; SL(ab) 22.45; TP(a) 23.95.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Down day; trend is still up; change to downtrend below 7215.

TecDAX
Second down day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Second down day. Change to downtrend below 13367.

S&P 500
Second down day. Change to downtrend below 1430.

Nasdaq 100
Down day; trend is still down.

SMI
Inside day.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

Stocks
CSTR short. Position was opened at 45.90. SL(ab) 47.55; TP(a) 43.30.

PBR long. Inside day; order was not triggered, but the setup is still good. Buy(ab) STP 23.00 LMT 23.05; SL(ab) 22.45; TP(a) 23.95.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Change to downtrend.

TecDAX
Third down day; trend is still up. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Change to downtrend.

S&P 500
Third down day; trend is still up.

Nasdaq 100
Down day.

SMI
Up day,

All Ordinaries
First down day.

Stocks
CSTR short. Nice move down; TP not hit, yet. SL(ab) 47.55; TP(a) 43.30.

PBR long. Order not triggered; setup is still good. Buy(ab) STP 22.75 LMT 22.80; SL(ab) 22.35; TP(a) 23.48.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Up day; change to uptrend above 7410.

TecDAX
Fourth down day; trend is still up; long entry would be possible, but (1) I‘m already long two positions here, and (2) I have a downtrend in the other German index, so a long is defnitely not a good option here. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Down day; still in downtrend.

S&P 500
Up day; trend is still up.

Nasdaq 100
Down day; trend is down.

SMI
First down day.

All Ordinaries
Second down day.

Stocks
CSTR short. No real action today. SL(ab) 47.55; TP(a) 43.30.

PBR long. Order was filled. SL(ab) 22.35; TP(a) 23.48.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX
Inside day.

TecDAX
Up day. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones
Down day.

S&P 500
Down day.

Nasdaq 100
Down day.

SMI
Up day.

All Ordinaries
Up day.

Stocks
CSTR short. SL(ab) 47.55; TP(a) 43.30.

PBR long. SL(ab) 22.35; TP(a) 23.48.

I‘ll be away for the coming week, so there will be no updates. All orders remain the way they are now.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX Changed to uptrend on 18.10.2012; first down day.

TecDAX Second down day; still in uptrend. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500 Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.

SMI Uptrend; up day.

All Ordinaries Uptrend; inside day.

Stocks

CSTR short The (a) position was liquidated when it hit its target on Tuesday. The stop loss of the remaining (b) position will be moved to +0.5 R at 45.07 now. It’s actually good that I wasn’t there last week, because I would have been stopped out at this price already. SL(b) 45.07.

PBR long (a) position was closed with a profit at 23.48 on Tuesday. The remaining position would have been stopped out, and PBR isn’t going anywhere anyway, so I’ll just close (b) market on open tomorrow.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX Uptrend; second down day.

TecDAX Uptrend; third down day. Long entry possible, but I’m already long two positions. SL(bd) 798.

Dow Jones Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500 Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.

SMI Uptrend; first down day.

All Ordinaries Uptrend; first down day.

Stocks
CSTR short Went down some more. SL(b) 45.07.

PBR long Closed the trade at 22.71.


HIG long Nice trend since August, small pullback to previous resistance, bullish bar. Buy(ab) STP 22.23 LMT 22.28; SL(ab) 21.68; TP(a) 23.13.

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 Sawyer 
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DAX Back to downtrend; down day.

TecDAX Change to downtrend; down day. Positions (b) and (d) were stopped out at 798 for a profit of 2.25 R and 1.25 R, resprectively.


Dow Jones Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500 Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.

SMI Uptrend; second down day. Change to downtrend below 6495.

All Ordinaries Uptrend; second down day.

Stocks
CSTR short I expect to be stopped out tomorrow. SL(b) 45.07.

HIG long Order not triggered; setup is still good. Buy(ab) STP 21.97 LMT 22.02; SL(ab) 21.45; TP(a) 22.88.

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  #78 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX Downtrend; down day.

TecDAX Downtrend; down day.

Dow Jones Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500 Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.

SMI Uptrend; third down day. Buy(ab) STP 6641 LMT 6645; SL(ab) 6598; TP(a) 6755.

All Ordinaries Uptrend; inside day, ignore.

Stocks
CSTR short Still in the game. SL(b) 45.07.

HIG long Entered long at the LMT price at 22.02. SL(ab) 21.45; TP(a) 22.88.

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  #79 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX Downtrend; first up day.

TecDAX Downtrend; first up day.

Dow Jones Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500 Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.

SMI Uptrend; up day. Position was opened at 6641. SL(ab) 6598; TP(a) 6755.

All Ordinaries Uptrend; inside day.

Stocks
CSTR short Stopped out.

HIG long Up day.

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  #80 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX Downtrend; second up day.

TecDAX Downtrend; down day.

Dow Jones Downtrend; inside day.

S&P 500 Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.

SMI Uptrend; down day. Position was stop- ped out at 6598. Another long entry is possible: Buy(ab) STP 6614 LMT 6617; SL(ab) 6566; TP(a) 6775.

All Ordinaries Uptrend; third down day; long entry possible: Buy(ab) STP 4548 LMT 4553; SL(ab) 4494; TP(a) 4660.

Stocks
HIG long Down day; will probably be stopped out on Monday.

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  #81 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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Results

So, after a while I'm posting another update on the results. It's been a bit disappointing over the last couple of weeks/months, but looking at the positives: I'm not having much of a drawdown, the majority of trades is still positive, and I've earned 38 R so far.

Stats


Open trades


Recently closed trades


Fancy profit/loss diagram


I'm very content with the result of the Rivalland strategy: when I look only at those trades, I'm at +26.70 R. The stock trading strategy is positive as well, but trading it feels a lot harder (plus: it yielded a lot less with roughly the same number of trades).

So, I'll continue with the Rivalland strategy, but it could be that I'll change the underlyings a bit: I feel confident enough to put some real money into it; futures would be way too big, so I'm going to try it with CFDs. Luckily, IB is now offering CFDs on major indices, but I'm not content with some of the information they provide, so I'm still waiting for customer support to get back to me with some answers to my questions before I'll be actually trading their CFDs.

As for the swing trading strategy, I realize that it has a pretty low percentage of winning trades. This means that I'll have to put more emphasis on letting the second part of each trade, the (b) position, accumulate more profit. When I look at the charts of the stocks I've traded, this would definitely have been possible. Also, I'm not going to screen for stocks every day (haven't done it over the last couple of weeks), because it takes quite a lot of time. Thus, there will be fewer stock trades.

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  #82 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; inside day, ignore.

TecDAX
Downtrend; down day.

SMI
Uptrend; inside day. Buy(ab) STP 6614 LMT 6617; SL(ab) 6566; TP(a) 6775.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; inside day; order was not triggered. Long entry still possible. Buy(ab) STP 4524 LMT 4526; SL(ab) 4494; TP(a) 4660.

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  #83 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; third up day. Short entry possible.

TecDAX
Downtrend; second up day.

SMI
Uptrend; up day. Position was opened at 6614. SL(ab) 6566; TP(a) 6775.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; down day. Long entry still possible. Buy(ab) STP 4519 LMT 4522; SL(ab) 4493; TP(a) 4575.

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  #84 (permalink)
 blueline 
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I enjoy reading your journal.Discovered it while trying to set up my swing trading plan for stocks rather than the Buy and Hope method.

I am starting with a method I learned at a seminar many years ago which basically screens Macd Hist on weekly and
stochastics on daily for prospects.I am trying to code a strategy in Ninjatrader to backtest it but may just visually and forward test. I also would like to try some of the methods you are using.
I also would like to incorporate P&F as I just finished "The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure book and feeling inspired.
Anyway thanks again for your journal and hope you keep it up.
John

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  #85 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; fourth up day; short entry possible. Short(ab) STP 7260 LMT 7266; SL(ab) 7348; TP(a) 7160.


TecDAX
Downtrend; third up day; short entry possible.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; second up day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; first up day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; inside day.

SMI
Uptrend; down day. SL(ab) 6566; TP(a) 6775.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; up day. Position opened at 4519. SL(ab) 4493; TP(a) 4575.

Stocks
HIG long. Stopped out.

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  #86 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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blueline View Post
I enjoy reading your journal.Discovered it while trying to set up my swing trading plan for stocks rather than the Buy and Hope method.

I am starting with a method I learned at a seminar many years ago which basically screens Macd Hist on weekly and
stochastics on daily for prospects.I am trying to code a strategy in Ninjatrader to backtest it but may just visually and forward test. I also would like to try some of the methods you are using.
I also would like to incorporate P&F as I just finished "The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure book and feeling inspired.
Anyway thanks again for your journal and hope you keep it up.
John

Thanks!

Feel free to keep us up to date and post scan results in this thread. As I've written, I'm not really happy with the stock swing trades I'm taking, so I'll be starting to look for alternatives over the next weeks.

Point and Figure is great, but unfortunately the only decent software for that seems to be Updata, which I find too expensive; and it only runs on Windows.

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  #87 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; outside bar. I was stopped in and stopped out on the same day; this sucks!

TecDAX
Downtrend; down day.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; third up day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; second up day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; first up day.

SMI
Uptrend; up day. What a weird bar, I was nearly stopped out. SL(ab) 6566; TP(a) 6775.

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  #88 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; up day.

TecDAX
Downtrend; up day.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; third up day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; down day.

SMI
Uptrend; up day. Moving stop loss to break even. SL(ab) 6615; TP(a) 6775.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; inside day.

Stocks
INTC short. Downtrend for several months, now pullback to resistance. Short(ab) STP 22.00 LMT 21.95; SL(ab) 22.56; TP(a) 21.03.

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  #89 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; down day.

TecDAX
Downtrend; inside day.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; down day.

SMI
Uptrend; up day. SL(ab) 6615; TP(a) 6775.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; up day.

Stocks
INTC short. Position opened at 21.99. SL(ab) 22.56; TP(a) 21.03.

VMED long. 50% retracement, not quite back at support around 31, but it has a bullish bar and looks good anyway. Buy(ab) STP 32.40 LMT 32.45; SL(ab) 31.75; TP(a) 33.50.

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  #90 (permalink)
 iVADE85 
Chicago IL
 
 
Posts: 4 since Nov 2012

Great charts, and great work. Thanks for your efforts and time spent helping.

-iVade

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  #91 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; up day.

TecDAX
Downtrend; up day.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; up day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; up day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; up day.

SMI
Uptrend; up day. SL(ab) 6615; TP(a) 6775.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; up day.

Stocks
INTC short. Nice bearish doji.

VMED long. Position was opened at 32.41. SL(ab) 31.75; TP(a) 33.50.

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  #92 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; down day.

TecDAX
Downtrend; down day.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; down day.

SMI
ProRealtime still doesn’t have today’s quotes… SL(ab) 6615; TP(a) 6775.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; up day.

Stocks
INTC short. Straight down. Position (a) was closed at the take profit at 21.03. Stop loss is being moved to +0.5 R at 21.71. SL(b) 21.71.

VMED long. Stopped out at 31.75.

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  #93 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; down day.

TecDAX
Downtrend; down day.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; down day.

SMI
Yesterday’s action, because ProRealtime doesn’t have today’s quotes, yet. Uptrend; down day. Take profit was hit, (a) position closed out at 6779.12. SL(b) 6615.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; down day.

Stocks
INTC short. Another bearish doji. SL(b) 21.71.

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  #94 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX
Downtrend; down day.

TecDAX
Downtrend; down day.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; down day.

SMI
Uptrend; second down day. SL(b) 6615.

All Ordinaries
Uptrend; down day.

Stocks
INTC short. Gravestone doji. Should go lower. SL(b) 21.71.

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  #95 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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I didn’t have time for an update yesterday.

DAX
Downtrend; down day.

TecDAX
Downtrend; down day.

Dow Jones
Downtrend; down day.

S&P 500
Downtrend; down day.

Nasdaq 100
Downtrend; down day.

SMI
Yesterday’s price, ProRealtime doesn’t have today’s quote, yet. Uptrend; up day. SL(b) 6615.

All Ordinaries
Now in downtrend; down day.

Stocks
INTC short. Moving south. SL(b) 21.71.

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  #96 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX Downtrend; inside day.
TecDAX Downtrend; inside day.
Dow Jones Downtrend; down day.
S&P 500 Downtrend; down day.
Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.
SMI Uptrend; inside day. SL(b) 6615.
All Ordinaries Downtrend; down day.

INTC short Another down day. I’m trying to give the swing position more room, so I’ll leave the stop loss untouched. SL(b) 21.71.

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  #97 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX Downtrend; down day.
TecDAX Downtrend; down day.
Dow Jones Downtrend; down day.
S&P 500 Downtrend; down day.
Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.
SMI Today’s quote not yet available.
All Ordinaries Downtrend; down day.

INTC short Bearish inside doji.

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  #98 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX Downtrend; down day.
TecDAX Downtrend; down day.
Dow Jones Downtrend; up day.
S&P 500 Downtrend; up day.
Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; down day.
SMI Change to downtrend. Got stopped out on Thursday. It probably wasn’t a good idea to hold on to a long position with virtually all markets being in a sideways or a bear trend.

All Ordinaries Downtrend; down day.

INTC short Bullish reversal. I’m expecting some sort of small correction. SL(b) 21.71.

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  #99 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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I'm having software issues, so there's no regular update today. All orders remain unchanged; no possible new trades.

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  #100 (permalink)
 Sawyer 
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DAX Downtrend; second up day.
TecDAX Downtrend; higher low; second up day.
Dow Jones Downtrend; third up day.
S&P 500 Downtrend; third up day. Short(ab) STP 1377 LMT 1375; SL(ab) 1390; TP(a) 1350.
Nasdaq 100 Downtrend; second up day.
SMI Yesterday’s action. Downtrend; first up day.
All Ordinaries Downtrend; second up day.

INTC short Correction turned out to be small; broke to a new low today. Support lies somewhere around 19.00 to 19.50, so INTC could bounce back from here. SL(b) 21.71.
ETFC short Nice little pullback with bearish inside bar; 38.2% retracement, short-term resistance. Short(ab) STP 8.01 LMT 7.97; SL(ab) 8.22; TP(a) 7.60.

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