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DAX
First down day. I‘ll trade the change-of-trend signal: Short STP(ab) 6349; SL(ab) 6500; TP(a) 6120.
S&P 500
Position was stopped out at 1342.
Stocks MOS. Position still open. Bullish outside bar. SL(b) 56.65.
WLP. Orders unchanged: SL(ab) 63.90; TP(a) 60.15. I don‘t like the reversal bar; considered closing at the open, but decided against it, becuase the setup still looks strong.
ADM. SL(ab) 27.80; TP(a) 26.17. Same here: reversal bar, but the setup is still valid, so I shouldn‘t close here.
MRVL. Another reversal bar... SL(ab) 11.45; TP(a) 10.20. I hope this is not a sign of strength.
VZ. Long position was not opened, but the whole setup is still valid: Buy(ab) STP 44.50; SL(ab) 43.65; TP(a) 45.78.
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DAX Inside day, ignore. Still setting up possible short: Short STP(ab) 6349; SL(ab) 6460; TP(a) 6120.
TecDAX
Inside day.
Dow Jones
Down day, trend is still up. PnF 3-1% is unchanged all the way. Long entry now possible.
S&P 500
Same here: down day, uptrend is still intact. Third down day, so a long entry is possible.
Nasdaq 100
Inside day.
Although the S&P and the Dow offer a possible long entry, I will not take it, as the stop loss would be too far away.
EUR/USD
Down day. SL(b) 1.2330.
Stocks MOS. Stopped out at 56.65. Price action sucked today.
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WLP. Bearish almost-outside bar. The chart would look a lot more unpleasant if price went above the mini short-term resistance above today‘s high, so I move the stop loss to 62.30. SL(ab) 62.30; TP(a) 60.15.
ADM. Bearish inside bar. Moving the stop loss closer here, as well. SL(ab) 27.00; TP(a) 26.17.
MRVL. All the charts look exactly the same... stop loss will be placed above today‘s high, as a move upwards would make price action look ugly. SL(ab) 10.80; TP(a) 10.20.
Either I‘m stopped out on all three trades tomorrow (all of them are at least break-even now), or the stocks will tank.
VZ. Stock went down, bearish looking bar, closed below the EMA(30), so setup no longer applies, order cancelled.
PSX. Pullback to key Fibonacci levels and a horizontal support. Buy STP(ab) 35.45; SL(ab) 34.55; TP(a) 36.80. The only long setup I really liked today.
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PFE. Trend not strong enough, but pullback to support level; stop loss too wide, so no trade.
DAX Bearish outside day. Technically, it was a third down day, so a long entry is possible; the change-of-trend signal at 6349 would still be tradable. Buy STP(ab) 6476; SL(ab) 6375; TP(a) 6680.
Short STP(ab) 6349; SL(ab) 6460; TP(a) 6120.
Nasdaq 100
Third down day, long entry is now possible here, too. This signal is far better today than that in the Dow and the S&P, so I‘ll go with it: Buy STP(ab) 2567; SL(ab) 2535; TP(a) 2633. All three US indices might trigger a change-of-trend signal, as they are trading close to their last swing low. Therefore: Short STP(ab) 2522; SL(ab) 2570; TP(a) 2470. The Nasdaq looks weaker than the S&P, but stronger than the Dow, so I guess it‘s a good choice for now.
EUR/USD
First up day. SL(b) 1.2330.
Stocks WLP. Nice gap down. The (a) position has hit its take profit. I‘ll close the (b) position at the open, because I believe that a pullback is likely, and the way back to the low will take a while.
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ADM. Position is still open; I‘ll leave the orders unchanged. SL(ab) 27.00; TP(a) 26.17.
MRVL. Stopped out at 10.80.
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PSX. Position was opened with a small gap up at 35.60. SL(ab) 34.55; TP(a) 36.80.
URBN. Actually, this has no strong, established trend; rather, we‘ve seen a first leg upwards and a good 38.2% retracement back to a key support level at 30, which is going back several years. I‘ll give it a try. Buy STP(ab) 30.45; SL(ab) 29.70; TP(a) 31.58.
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Results List of open trades
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List of closed trades
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Stats
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DAX
What the hell? I got stopped into a short position (ab) at 6349 as the DAX went below its recent low, which caused a change-of-trend signal. The DAX reversed up, I got stopped out with (ab) at 6460 before finally entering a long position, again (ab) at 6476. The original take profit was set to 6680 for (a), but considering the bullish action today I will up that to 6750. Technically, the DAX is in a downtrend, as it went below 6349, but I hadn‘t considered that when entering the orders. SL(ab) 6375; TP(a) 6750.
TecDAX
Big up day here as well.
Dow Jones
Up day, trend is still up. PnF 3-1% is unchanged, still in X column.
S&P 500
Up day.
Nasdaq 100
Up day. I‘ve chosen the worst index, because it gapped up and I got a bad fill at 2588.20. SL(ab) 2535; TP(a) 2633.
Stocks WLP. Sold the remaining (b) position at 53.88.
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ADM. Stopped out at 27.04.
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URBN. Looks awful. Opened with gap up and reversed lower. Stopped in at 30.74. Moving the SL up to 32.30, so I get a decent risk-reward-ratio. SL(ab) 32.30; TP(a) 31.58.
I'm long-only right now without a short position. I don't like what the market is doing, so I'm not going to get into more trades.
Results
The WLP position was lucky enough. Right now I'm at +18.48 R, but WLP alone contributed 10.39 R to this. Clearly a lucky outlier. But I'm glad the project has had a good start.
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DAX
Up day, price action continues to look bullish. My take profit at 6680 would have been hit, but I moved that up tp 6750, which has not been taken out so far. Greed? Anyway, I guess that another 160 points upwards is likely after Friday‘s price action. I‘m moving the stop loss to below Friday‘s bar. SL(ab) 6513; TP(a) 6750.
TecDAX
Made a new high.
Dow Jones
Bullish up day, closed above last local high. PnF 3-1% made a breakout from its double top.
S&P 500
Same here: new high, PnF 3-1% broke out of its triple top.
Nasdaq 100
Up day, no new high, yet. Another reversal on the PnF chart, but no breakout. Take profit of the (a) position was hit. Due to the bad entry, I only got +0.84 R on this one. Moving the stop loss to 2589 for break-even. SL(b) 2589.
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EUR/USD
I got stopped out at 1.2330 for a small profit of +0.35 R. Trend has reversed to up.
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Stocks PSX. Moving higher, TP(a) has been taken out, so I move the SL of the remaining (b) position to 35.08. SL(b) 35.08.
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URBN. Another reversal bar, but with a higher close. I still don‘t like the price action in URBN. Moving the stop loss to break even level. SL(ab) 30.75; TP(a) 31.58.
MNST. This is the only setup I found, and it‘s short, which is perfect to add to my long-only portfolio of positions. The trend is young with a series of lower lows and lower highs, all three moving averages are sloping down, and price retraced back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Short STP(ab) 67.70; SL(ab) 69.70; TP(a) 64.70.
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DAX
Made a new local high. Position (a) hit the take profit at 6750 for a profit of +2.71 R. I‘m speculating that the index will move higher, so I‘ll give the remaining (b) position enough room, SL order unchanged. SL(b) 6513.
TecDAX
Small up day.
Dow Jones
Up day.
S&P 500
Up day.
Nasdaq 100
Up day; no new local high; PnF 3/1% unchanged. I‘m expecting a pullback, and I don‘t like the fact that the Nasdaq is lagging. I‘ll exit tomorrow at the open.
Stocks PSX. Moving up, right now trading at the last high. It‘s either breaking out or it won‘t, so I‘ll draw my stop closer. SL(b) 36.80.
URBN. Got stopped out here for a penny at 30.75.
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MNST. Stopped in at 67.70. SL(ab) 69.70; TP(a) 64.70.
I looked at about 100 stocks that came out of my secreener, but I didn‘t like any setup.
DAX
Up day, looks like another top right now. SL(b) 6513.
TecDAX
Same here, bearish engulfing bar: a top is likely.
Dow Jones
First down day.
S&P 500
First down day.
Nasdaq 100
Bearish inside bar. Sold at the open at 2643.28 for a profit of +1.04 R. This trade sucked: if I had been stopped in without a gap, profit on the (b) position would have been +2.44 R instead.
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Stocks PSX. Bearish reversal day right at the previous high. Looks like the stock is going lower over the next days. Exit at the open tomorrow.
CSCO. This was one of the first stocks I ever bought, back in 2001 at around $38, and I sold it with a loss years later. Now I want my money back The chart looks perfect: hit the 61.8% Fib retracement, which happens to be a short-term resistance level. Short STP(ab) 15.80; SL(ab) 16.15; TP(a) 15.27.
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Last edited by Sawyer; July 31st, 2012 at 05:44 PM.
Stocks PSX. Gapped up; position (b) closed as planned at 39.08
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MNST. Nice down day. The take profit of the (a) position was hit; the stop loss of the remaining (b) position is placed at +0.5 R as planned. SL(b) 66.70.
CSCO. Stopped in at 15.80. SL(ab) 16.15; TP(a) 15.27.
SU. The only long setup today. Retracement back to support at 30.50; 38.2% Fib retracement hit. Risk-reward-ratio is not too great, but I don‘t have many long options, and my portfolio needs at least one long position. I‘m using a STP LMT order, so I won‘t be stopped in with a larger gap, again.Buy STP(ab) 31.20 LMT 31.25; SL(ab) 30.45; TP(a) 32.40.
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WLT. Standard short setup with retracement back to resistance around the 50% Fib level. Short STP(ab) 33.78 LMT 33.75; SL(ab) 35.08; TP(a) 31.75.
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Results
I'm looking at +27.32 R so far; 65% winners; 24% losers. Average p/l is 0.74 R; average holding period is 6 days and 13 hours.
DAX
Up day, trend still intact, big bearish reversal.
TecDAX
First down day.
Dow Jones
Third down day, long entry is possible. PnF 3-1% is unchanged.
S&P 500
Third down day; long entry possible. PnF 3-1% hasn‘t changed. I‘ll take the entry: Buy STP(ab) 1376; SL(ab) 1354; TP(a) 1400.
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Nasdaq 100
Second down day.
Stocks MNST. Went down some more. I hope it‘s not going to run out of momentum. SL(b) 66.70.
CSCO. Nice gravestone doji; close shave, though, as the high was 16.11, and my stop is residing at 16.15. SL(ab) 16.15; TP(a) 15.27.
SU. I wasn‘t stopped into the trade; today‘s bar was larger than yesterday‘s, so my risk-reward-situation changed for the worse, and I‘m not going to put in an order today.
WLT. No entry here, either. Same as SU: today‘s bar is too large for a decent risk-reward-situation.
The chart looks perfect: hit the 61.8% Fib retracement, which happens to be a short-term 
