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The Beauty and Logic of the 6E


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The Beauty and Logic of the 6E

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  #101 (permalink)
 cory 
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Aragorn View Post
Your Settings box is different from mine. Is there another offshoot out there of gomi's work?

try this

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  #102 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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The Market has it's own Language. You must continually practice reading and studying that Language.

The Market is telling a Story. The Story is a Mystery. The Story is a Puzzle. It is a Story for you, the Reader, to figure out. It is a different and unique Story and Puzzle every day.

Your first job is to be able to Read and Understand the Market's Language. Only then can the Story make sense.

Do not attempt to Guess either: how the Story ends or what happens next. The Author is very clever. He always adds new twists and turns. He can do whatever he wants. It is HIS story.

The Author, does, however, leave clues. Some clues are important. Some clues are not.

Your second job is to: by using the Market's Language and tone together with the clues that it provides, figure out methodically, what might happen next.

It will take focus and discipline and patience.

Sometimes, even with the best analysis, you will be wrong. But, if you are consistent and methodical in your Reading and in your ability to separate the important clues from the unimportant, you will consistently solve the puzzle.

Have fun and enjoy the incredibly rewarding and challenging undertaking called: Trading!

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  #103 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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If anyone is struggling with their trading results or are struggling with being a consistently profitable trader, I highly recommend "One Good Trade: Inside the Highly Competitive World of Proprietary Trading" by Mike Bellafiore.
It is packed with insights, wisdom and steps to take to develop a Successful traders Mentality.

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  #104 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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I've posted a lot on other threads over the last few weeks as I've been trying to collect information about how to trade multiple accounts.


and



It's been informative. I've watched a lot of videos over the last few weeks.

For as long as I can remember I have been interested in not just Bid/Ask Volume but more, it's effect on price.

That resonates with me.

I was in a Discord Room and happened to mention my interest in Volume/Price. Someone suggested I look at JigSaw Trading. So I decided to look into it. I watched a webinar that Peter did back in 2015 about keeping it Simple.

Right from the beginning he spoke of trading "Volume's effect on Price" so he had me hooked. As the webinar progressed I wasn't really seeing what I was hoping to see. I liked the education part (though I wasn't keen on trading the platform that he uses). After watching several of his videos I was about to pay up on the $1800 Institutional training course. My finger was literally on the Buy button when I saw the line that an additional $50/mo or $500/yr was required to trade Live.

$50/mo or $500/yr just to use it? That was a deal breaker for me. Not that I didn't have the money but the idea of having to pay more every month/year to get the damn thing to work really soured me. Apparently I needed to spend a little more time reading the fine print and a little less time watching videos. I passed.

I did watch another of his videos about the new release of DayTrader. It had some cool features. I liked the addition of the Trade tracker and the evaluation part. That could be a huge benefit for journal keeping. But still, the extra cost per month was still there so I passed again.

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  #105 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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The other OrderFlow Tool that I looked at was BookMap. For someone who likes Bid/Ask Volume and seeing it play out in the Market in a very visual way, BookMap really piqued my interest. With the level of data and detail that BookMap collects, it is a Resource hog. My NinjaTrader kept locking up. I won't go into everything I did to increase RAM and processing speed. It was pretty extensive. In the end, none of it worked, NinjaTrader kept locking up. I reluctantly had to switch computers.
I watched a lot more videos this time about BookMap and bought it.
BookMap, in order for it to be at it's best, requires the purest market data.
The default data feed for NinjaTrader Brokerage is Continuum. Rithmic is the preferred data feed for BookMap. I contacted NinjaTrader Brokerage and requested a switch to Rithmic. Rithmic is more expensive but, if it's a better feed then I thought it was worth it.
In hindsight, I should have waited until the month was over to make the switch. As data feeds are not prorated, I ended up paying for a full month of Continuum and a full month of Rithmic. It's a small cost but it was an unnecessary cost still the same.

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  #106 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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OneUp Trader, before even beginning, is reluctant to pay out. Consider their payout structure.
Under OneUp->FAQ->Funded Traders Rules and Guidelines->Profit Info note what it says under

Profit Split
Receive a generous profit split between the trader and the funding partner, ranging between 50% or 80% going to the trader based on your account choice during your evaluation.

Funded traders keep 100% of their first $8,000 of profits for the 80% split option or 100% of their first $5,000 of profits for the 50% split option.

But then, keep reading under

"Withdrawal Threshold"
In order to allow a true chance for success and to limit your risk of draw downs during withdrawals and to secure the longevity of your trading account, traders are required to adhere to the withdrawal thresholds to be eligible for withdrawals.

This sounds like an Auto Insurance Policy. Someone pointed out to me that the Declaration Page is everything that the Insurance Company is going to pay. The rest of the pages in the policy is how they are going to get out of it! While humorous, there is a lot of truth to it.

The "Profit Split" is like the Declaration Page. It contains everything that they are going to cover and pay out according to the terms of the agreement.

The "Withdrawal Threshold" is like the rest of the pages in the Insurance policy. It explains how OneUp is going to get out of what they told you they will pay out in the Profit Split.

OneUp says that you will receive 80% of a "generous profit split". This makes traders think that they get 80% of the profits that they generate. This is not the case. OneUp says that they take $3500 off the board for your considered profits and they retain this as a "threshold." That means that if you make a profit of, let's use their example, $7500 you do not get 80% of $7500. They subtract the threshold of $3500 ($100,000 account) from the $7500 profit that you made. So the difference of $4000 is what you get the 80% applied to. You get $3200.

That is a far cry from the 80% of the $7500 that they lead you to believe that you will make. Even scarier, they do not tell you how often this threshold is assessed and reassessed. Meaning, they keep the $3500 threshold for the first $7500. Do they assess another threshold of $3500 for the second $7500 that you make once again limiting the payout again to $3200 and keeping a cumulative $7000 in threshold? That is a question that needs to be answered for sure. And, if you close your account with them, do you then get the 80% of the Threshold? After all, you made the $3500. Does it just disappear? Something tells me there is a very long and lengthy legal document attached to this that you sign and that is going to legally supersede anything that is written on their web page or in the emails that their support sends you.

I can't help but notice that all money from the exchange goes to them that you made. Then, there is a resonance that you have to beg and grovel, comply and jump through hoops to meet the requirements to get the money that you made from or out of them.

Now, before we go too far off course, let's keep in mind, they are providing you with the opportunity to trade using their capital. And let's keep in mind that this is money that you made, using their capital that you probably would not have made on your own without using their capital. I get it. But I also get, as the header identifies, this is the "Fine Print." What other fine print is lurking? For sure, being forewarned is being forearmed.

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  #107 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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  #108 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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My Question:
How often is the Withdrawal threshold assessed?
Using the example on the site for a $100,000 account size, there is a $3500 threshold. So if I make a profit of $7500, the $3500 threshold is deducted from that profit leaving a difference of $4000. The 80% is then applied to the $4000 yielding a payout of $3200 (not including wire fees).
Is the threshold applied weekly or monthly or what? Suppose I make another $7500 the next week. Is another threshold subtracted from the second $7500 yielding another $3200 for me while OneUp keeps a now cumulative $7000 ($3500+$3500)?

Their Answer:
Thanks for reaching out. If you make 7500 on that account you can take out $4000 at 100%. The profit split only applies after you've taken out your first $8000 on the 80% split. In order to be able to withdraw the minimum $1000 you need to have this amount over the profit threshold $3500 in the account + $1000 = $4500 - Now you can take out $1000. That's how the threshold works.

My Response:
Huh? Is this Common Core? Am I being punked?

My Question:
So you only assess the threshold once. If/when I want to close my funded account, do I then get the 80% applied to the $3500 threshold? It is, after all, $3500 that I generated.

Their Answer:
If you choose to close the Funded Trading Account or if you lose it from breaking rules you will get a % from the previous profits (threshold) based on account length with seeder which goes up to 80%. 100% is for over threshold when you request. if the account has been traded for a month you will receive 50% and if for 3 months then 80% of all profits before infraction.

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  #109 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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For the last several years I have turned my attention to Volume's effect on price. I bought into the theory that Buyers effect upward price movement and Sellers effect downward price movement. I no longer believe that.

I now believe that price movement is determined by the Exchange and nothing else- not even the Institutions.

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  #110 (permalink)
 Fluid Fox 
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Can you explain why you believe this? What made you come to that conclusion?

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  #111 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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Zachary Standley View Post
Can you explain why you believe this? What made you come to that conclusion?

This is from a BookMap chart from last Friday's trading. Look at the Buying Volume that crossed the spread and Price did not respond. 20 seconds later price rises on much less buying.
The traditional explanation is that Seller's "absorbed" the Buying pressure. This explanation is, at best, a guess. It allows one to continue to believe that 'somehow' Buyer's and Seller's control Price.

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  #112 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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I was talking with one of my trading mentors a few months ago. I haven't talked with her for a few years. Her name is Pam Ludwig. She was the moderator for the Futures room at Trade Angle Strategies (TAS). When she left TAS she opened her own room called Traders News Network (TNN). She closed her room a few years later. Pam was the best trader I have ever seen. Finding someone who is truly successful trading is rare.
I contacted her to ask her a question. During the course of our conversation she showed me her trading strategy. She didn't go in to her Rules, Risk/Reward, Target/Stops nor Trade Management. It was just a very brief display of her trading strategy. I was appalled at it's simplicity and the simplicity of the logic behind it. During my conversation with her, she commented on how I was making trading more difficult than it needed to be.
This is her strategy and the Logic behind it.
She goes Long when the Market trades above A and C and goes Short when it trades below 1. The logic is: the Sellers from A to B and C to D are no longer present or interested and the Buyers from 1 to 2 are no longer present or interested.
That's it! A very simple strategy using very simple logic.
Keep it Simple!

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  #113 (permalink)
skifaster
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Aragorn,
Thx for you post of Pam Ludwig trading, Have you used her Ludwig Levels service? By the way, i am also in SLC

Best ----Mark

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  #114 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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skifaster View Post
Aragorn,
Thx for you post of Pam Ludwig trading, Have you used her Ludwig Levels service? By the way, i am also in SLC

Best ----Mark

Hi skifaster. Welcome to the best trading forum on the internet.
I have used her levels in the past. I currently do not. If you are interested in looking at them further, I strongly recommend you contact her for the trial and see if they fit with your trading needs. She sends out info with them but she is always willing to answer questions and go into more detail if necessary. Pam is the best!

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  #115 (permalink)
 tr8er 
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looks like the good old Joe Ross trading

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  #116 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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Over the past several months, I have, both here in my Journal and on other threads, posted some pretty negative comments and reviews about OneUp Trader. I believe those comments were warranted and justified. In the end, however, I decided to go with OneUp over TopStep. Time will tell if that was a good decision or not.

I reached the review section of the evaluation process today and am now waiting to be funded. I began with the $100k account but had to downgrade to the $50k. Perhaps I will go back to the $100k. But also, perhaps I will go with TopStep next time. Again, time will tell.

I went with OneUp for several reasons:
First, I like the idea of NOT having to pay for data feeds. TopStep you pay for your own data.
Second, when I began, I needed two connections, one to NT and one to BookMap. I was told, somewhere, that I could only have one connection with TopStep. I have since found out that the information about only one connection was inaccurate.
Third, OneUp was a little cheaper per month.
Fourth, the initial 100% payout of $8k over $5k was more appealing.
Fifth, the draw downs were a little higher in OneUp. It added a little more wiggle room in case of some consecutively bad trades.

Those were my reasons for going with OneUp. I am still not happy about how they do their funding with the threshold component nor the scaling component but, for now, I'll bite the bullet and live with it. That's the program. That's how they have chosen to do it. I had and have other options. For now, I will live with it.

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  #117 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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And for the record, I think it is awesome that Big Mike has recognized the incredible contributions of @bobwest. A few weeks ago when Bob wrote an explanation to a question I had, I noticed how much he has contributed to this forum. And yet he didn't have a "Legendary" or "Wizard" designation. Thank you Bob for all of your contributions. "Super Moderator" indeed! I am glad you got the recognition that you deserve.

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  #118 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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Aragorn View Post
And for the record, I think it is awesome that Big Mike has recognized the incredible contributions of @bobwest. A few weeks ago when Bob wrote an explanation to a question I had, I noticed how much he has contributed to this forum. And yet he didn't have a "Legendary" or "Wizard" designation. Thank you Bob for all of your contributions. "Super Moderator" indeed! I am glad you got the recognition that you deserve.

Thanks. I do appreciate it.

I don't know if I'm all that much a "super" moderator, more like just a "moderator in training," actually. But I'm learning.

Before I got moderatorized, I was a "legendary" "wizard," which simply reflects how much you type (), and how many Thanks you get, and a few other measures of participation. There's a formula that assigns these labels. For an explanation you can look at the top of the main page and click: UserCP > Your Profile > Statistics and then the topic "Forum Reputation." Basically, it reflects high participation and the judgment of the membership on that participation. I do appreciate the recognition it involves, and I appreciate the other people who received it, and the members who granted it.

Moderators (and admins) are the guys who watch for things that violate rules, and try to keep the forum organized by having threads put in the right places, and otherwise try to keep things running smoothly. You can tell them by the purple background to their names.

The moderation team has five members:

@Big Mike - Admin
@sam028 - Admin
@tturner86 - Super Moderator. Terry also does all the webinars, and has for years.
@xplorer - Super Moderator
@bobwest - Super Moderator (New Guy)

I have known each of the others for many years, and have been (and am) in awe of their work and dedication.

Like I said, I'm learning.

Bob.

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  #119 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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Aragorn View Post
Your answer does not lie in indicators.

You need to simplify everything. Stop looking at multiple markets. Become an expert at trading one market. Become Consistently Profitable Trading one market.

Then, if you want, start looking at a second. But only look and study. Do NOT trade it yet. Look and study it for several months until you can get a grasp on it's personality and it's nuances.

Order Flow seems to be most trader's preference. It is for me. What Volume is coming in to the market. Is it effecting price? Who is in control of price?

I trade the ES with a 500 Volume chart. (If you are, STOP changing charts, time frames and indicators). I trade a Volume chart because, to me, in my mind, I want to compare apples to apples. So if I want to look at Volume and order flow then a Volume chart makes sense.

I still trade with NT7. Sorry, I am used to trading it and I'm not ready to graduate to NT8. I trade with what I am used to and what I am comfortable with. All that said, I return to my hero gomi. Maybe his work can be duplicated on NT8. I don't need to research that. Perhaps one day I will have to.

Here's my 500 Volume chart.

The first panel has gomi's Bid/Ask Ratio. It breaks down Buyers and Sellers per bar. It tells me who is in control.

The second panel has gomi's COT. It breaks down how many Buyers and Sellers from the High and Low of each bar. It tells me how hard Buyers or Sellers are working to move price for directional continuation.

I like these because they are not "setting" dependent. They simply show the number of Buyers and Sellers per bar.

The lines on the main panel are from MyDynamicPivots and draws Fibs from the HOD and LOD. I like lines on my charts because it gives me a frame of reference to reference price action.

Hope it helped. Keep it Simple.

I posted this on another thread but think it belongs here as well.

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  #120 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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It's been a while since I added to my journal. My passion for trading has not diminished. As a matter of fact, if anything, it's increased.
I think I posted previously that I no longer trade the 6E- contrary to the Title. Too much info to start another Journal. I was originally trading the 6E in correlation to the USD at Support and Resistance. I didn't trade the USD just the 6E.
Apparently there's something about Correlation Markets that I find appealing because now I trade the ES and NQ.
I still trade Support and Resistance however.
I was trading proprietary levels. "Was" is the operative word. Now, I trade what's free. No need to buy anything. Don't need to. Free suites me just fine.
Fibs, dValue, Previous Fibs and previous dValue.
Sorry, I'm not going to post a screenshot. I've said enough. Besides, this Journal isn't about methodology. It's about trading.
I'm kind of ashamed to say I started keeping a Journal elsewhere- Notepad. I'll transcribe everything here eventually. Most of it's non-descriptive.
Perhaps I should include here what started all this. I had an idea that struck me as rather profound at the time. It was so profound.
I wrote, "Your ability to identify what the Market could be doing is only as good as the comprehensiveness of your list of possibilities."
I think the Market is a combination of art and science.
I suck at art. Still draw stick figures. I have zero creativity. and yet, the ebb and flow of the Market is pure poetry. It breathes and sways. And I'm usually late to see it or recognize it.
My science inclination wants it to fit in a box. Logic. Reason. Apply a formula and let it spit out the correct answer. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way. It's like I'm left trying to swat a fly with a hammer.
So that was what precipitated my profound epiphany. Since I lack the creativity necessary, my science mentality says keep a list in front of me of the embodiment of the artsy. Is it possible to reduce Art to a few considerations?
Of late I've started to see ABC pullbacks. Never paid attention to them. They look like reversals.
See, my science mentality would be duped thinking the Market is doing something it's not. I need an artsy ABC "reminder" since I don't have a natural inclination to think it.
More later.

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  #121 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
Salt Lake City, UT
 
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I'll be damned. Just looked at the NQ and saw two ABC pullbacks back to back. On the left side of the screen they look like the start of reversals. Especially back to back.
NQ 06-21

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  #122 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
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Since it just happened tonight I may as well post the second point to be reminded of. We speak of the ES and NQ as Correlated Markets. Correlated does NOT mean equal. In the Image, lines are drawn on a 1 minute chart for comparison. The ES made a series of Lower Highs off the High while the NQ made Higher Highs. Correlated does not mean Equal.
ES 06-21 (1 min)

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  #123 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
Salt Lake City, UT
 
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The second example was off the Open. It's kind of hard to tell from the image but the ES is moving down while the NQ is trading mostly sideways. Lastly, when the ES is putting in it's Low of the Session the NQ has already traded significantly higher. Again, just another variation of Correlated does not mean equal.
ES 06-21 (1 min) 2

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 Aragorn 
Salt Lake City, UT
 
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So far my reminders are: ABC and "Un-Correlated"

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  #125 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
Salt Lake City, UT
 
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Since they're happening a lot tonight I may as well post them.
These are the actual lines I had on my ES chart.
The first is nothing new. Support, when broken, becomes Resistance and Resistance, when broken, becomes Support.
The next is lines have to be considered as areas. This sucks actually. In cases like the NQ, the market can trade several points above or several points below a level. That puts a lot of pressure on Patience, Price Action, Volume and other timing factors.
S/R->R/S
Zones
ES 06-21

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  #126 (permalink)
 Aragorn 
Salt Lake City, UT
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: ES, 6E
 
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Posts: 293 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 203 given, 329 received

ABC
Un-Correlated
S/R->R/S
Zones

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