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Spot FX Day Trading: The Jigsaw
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Spot FX Day Trading: The Jigsaw

  #171 (permalink)
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2nd Trade In Sample

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Same game plan and pretty much the same trade as yesterday. Price upthrusted a swing high of yesterday at the end of the London open (looked climatic) and then sellers overcame the buyers - as evidenced by the large supply wave. My entry was a no demand wave at 1.3278. A 15 pip stop with a 30 pip target, just above the earlier LOD. On the next leg target was missed by 1 pip and I had to wait for a another 80 minutes for the target to be filled.

So that is the second trade in the sample and very pleased with the way I diligently followed my plan, routine and rules today. And another 2R winner.

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  #172 (permalink)
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Mokodo, if you'd been flat at 13:00 would you have gone short then?

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  #173 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
Mokodo, if you'd been flat at 13:00 would you have gone short then?

No. The set-up for the trade I took is a test of the range high and no demand after supply has come in. So I do not have a set-up to get short at the point you mention.

My view on shorting the retracement at 13:00GMT would be: news at 13:15 and 13:30 may make the trade risky, also the entry at that point - if you allow for price to turn and get confirmation - is pretty much in the middle of the range that existed at that moment. And you know that adage 'don't fiddle with the middle'.

I felt uncomfortable taking my trade today as the entry was getting away from the upper band, but was just about inside the top third of the range.

Hope that answers your question? And thanks for asking it.

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  #174 (permalink)
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mokodo View Post
And you know that adage 'don't fiddle with the middle'.

I didn't, but I do now

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #175 (permalink)
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No Trades

Only potential trade for me today was before I had finished my pre-session prep and therefore passed on it. Rest of the day was quiet prior to news and then volatility that went nowhere. No set-ups revealed themselves, and I did well to resist the urge to get involved. Adhered to the plan like glue today.

Another improvement to my routine this week has been being able to limit my screen time. I have tweaked an indicator that sends an email when price gets to a certain level and I get this to my phone with a custom alert.

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  #176 (permalink)
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No Trades

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Game plan today was to go long off a rejection of yesterday's low or a break and pullback through the range high at 1.3225. Neither happened two hours prior to NFP numbers so I wrapped up the day and week as I don't trade big news or the latter half of Fridays.

So first week done applying my rules and routines are tightly as I can. The result is just two trades, both winners and 4R total. That is fine by me.

Looking forward to next week.

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  #177 (permalink)
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3rd Trade In Sample

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Game plan today was to short a rejection of the upper band at 1.3295 or a break of the ice (lower band) and pull back to 1.3265. I was close to entering a short under the upper band, all was looking good, but there was too much demand in the upwave so not valid as per my rule set - but I was itching to take it.

Entry candle after a break and retest of ice was a wide range bar so I entered at the 50% point on the minor retracement with a 15 pip stop. 1st target was at 1.3223, just above the area where buyers overcame sellers on the NFP release last Friday; 2nd target just inside Friday's low.

Came to breakeven once price had advanced 1R and was taken out for a breakeven.

I noticed in this trade there was a selling climax at the bottom of the 3rd leg down (1.3233). That stopped the down move and from there other signs of strength came in: lack of supply, violation of both trend channels, demand came in and ease of movement up. I am noticing the impact that stopping volume can have in arresting a trend either temporarily or permanently.

In hindsight the range on Friday may have pointed to a narrow range today so the better game plan may have been to be more aggressive on entries + modest profit targets. The trading plan I am testing allows no flexibility in this regard but I like the idea of considering marginal trades where the reward is worth the increased risk - possibly something for further down this road...

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  #178 (permalink)
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4th & 5th Trade In Sample

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Game plan today was to be on the watch out for a volatility breakout and play for a trend day with wider profit targets if I could get in early.

Armed with this plan I entered short as price took a run above yesterday's close during the last Asian session and rejected that level with supply coming in. I went short after the first no demand wave. This was the low of the day. I was happy with this trade (in hindsight). The game plan for anticipating some volatility was correct, and the preference to commit early to get as much of the move also correct - but the direction wrong. But I did feel I had rushed the trade, I had not quite finished my pre-session prep and didn't want to miss out. Still believe I would have taken it.

As this test in the London open reversed I was shifting my bias long. The solid buying in the demand wave up to the upper band set the tone for the rest of my session. I wanted to get long on a pull back to the creek (1.3265) but the demand wave that jumped the creek had no initial retracement and the supply wave that eventually did bring price back was too large and I felt buyers had not put up much of a fight, so I stayed out.

I did get long in the US open. Price had breached the HOD and was consolidating. I entered after 3 pushes down off that high with a 10 pip stop as MACD was rolling over. Target was 30 pips at 1.3321. Then shot myself in the foot. I brought my stop to breakeven with news at 15:00GMT. This was GBP news that would not increase risk to this trade (EURUSD) - I used it as an excuse to lock in a risk free trade. As you can see the target would have been filled. Whilst it is in my rules to manage a trade 5 minutes prior to news it's clearly only applicable to relevant news.

Another notable observation today is the HOD was after 3 legs up with a buying climax at the very top (I have a separate chart tracking 5 minute tick volume from which I evaluate buying/selling climaxes). This coincided with two demand waves, the second showing lack of reward for the effort with an upthrust at the high. I've include this as a set-up to be included in this sample test. Eyeballing the last 40 or so days EURUSD action indicates there may be some value in using buying and selling climaxes (in the correct context) as set-ups.

Overall I am fairly happy with my performance today. My levels and game plan were pretty good, just poor work on the long trade. I am wondering if I would just do better to remove any options to manage trades from my trading plan and have to 'set and forget' in every case unless I was reversing my position.

Net result was -1R today. From a process point of view, a little shaky. From experience I expect this is down to a few days of no trades/breakeven. This is when I tend to focus on results not process, so I will be more attuned to this tomorrow.

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  #179 (permalink)
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Did you read the recent conversation on PandaWarrior's journal? I found it very thought-provoking. Where to place stops, whether to go to B/E etc etc.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #180 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
Did you read the recent conversation on PandaWarrior's journal? I found it very thought-provoking. Where to place stops, whether to go to B/E etc etc.

I'll take a look, thanks

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