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Spot FX Day Trading: The Jigsaw


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Spot FX Day Trading: The Jigsaw

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  #151 (permalink)
Houston, TX/USA
 
 
Posts: 11 since Jul 2013
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I enjoyed reading through some of your extensive trading journal. I am interested in starting Forex trading myself and am reading whatever I can on the subject. I ran across this link yesterday and read most of it (it's pretty short but full of Forex trading secrets and observations)



Marlin

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  #152 (permalink)
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Never mind. Something obvious you are already doing.

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  #153 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
I assume you deducted two points from your perfect 10 because of your part 2 handling?

So you didnt move the stops to b/e either?

I'm not criticising, I'm just recognising the same thing I see in my trading. I do two part trades as well and I am dissatisfied with my trading plan definition for dealing with part two - officially I "manage it less strictly than part 1", which means essentially sweet FA. My history with part 2 trades is appalling.

Most of my part 2 trades are either exited at B/E or stopped out just like yours shortly before another big push in the right direction.

I have an idea to work out what the average bounce off an S/R level is and I'd put my part 2 stop a few points beyond that - the S/R level I mean is the one where the first target is.

"Average bounce" means the retrace before carrying on to break the level. I just need the time to go back over some historical charts and pull together some data to make a distribution curve of retrace sizes on S/R level breaks.

Went to BE after +20 pips in the first leg down. And yes the idea with the 2 part trades is to get a substantial winner very occasionally - my current stats for this are woeful up to now. Again the better the outcome in this trade's instance would have been to set and forget the trade and yes the 2 points deducted would be the position of the trailing stop.

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  #154 (permalink)
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6J - after the Tokyo close

5:26am EST


we're at the point of indecision, in the 0.10030 - 0.10026 range and sinking lower,

however, this is where the tendency to rip you for -6 to -8 ticks

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  #155 (permalink)
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kronie View Post
6J - after the Tokyo close

5:26am EST


we're at the point of indecision, in the 0.10030 - 0.10026 range and sinking lower,

however, this is where the tendency to rip you for -6 to -8 ticks

Hi kronie,

Wondered if you could expand on this comment, as I don't understand. Thanks in advance

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  #156 (permalink)
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mokodo View Post
Hi kronie,

Wondered if you could expand on this comment, as I don't understand. Thanks in advance


6J analysis


of current conditions at that time stated

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  #157 (permalink)
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I start at 10am UK time on Monday's so the down move was about in the middle of the predicted range by this time. The only other trade I could have taken was a long off the lower band, but this broke up very quickly on news and I did not get a signal to enter on.

So did my job well again today.

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  #158 (permalink)
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The levels I had in place after doing my pre-session prep and game plan were a bit off today. The lower of these two bands was actually my upper band when I started trading (yesterday's high) and I was looking for shorts when price fell under and with ease of downward movement and decent supply coming in. After a low volume pullback and the MACD histogram rolling over I took the short with a 15 pip stop. As per my rule set I came to breakeven 5 minutes prior to a substantive news event (German ZEW survey) and was taken out for a breakeven.

The rest of the day was a bit frustrating as I had a read on the price action but just did not get a valid set-up to get on board.

After the change of behaviour with the demand coming in off the LOD I was waiting for a low volume secondary test of the spring off the LOD, but didn't get one. There after I had a couple of other long trades that nearly set-up but could not take them as not all the criteria were met.

I put in the upper band after demand came in off the LOD and that acted as a good level to work out the price action for the rest of the session.

I can already feel the benefit of being as close to 100% rule led, as opposed to the looser approach I was slipping into.

I did my job well again today.

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  #159 (permalink)
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10/10 for sticking to my 'stop or target' rule today. 2 stop losses to report.

The first was very poor execution. The image shows where I had set my lower band after doing my pre-session prep. The strong supply wave drove into and exceeded this level at the London open. I did not adjust the band so was working of this rather than the LOD. I have no idea why I did not adjust it.

I then took a short thinking that there was a break of the ice and a low volume pull back. The price action preceding the entry was looking bearish to me. There was a great big upwave in the middle of the channel which took an hour to build and didn't push price up, there was no ease of movement and a lack of reward for the effort exerted. Following that were two no demand waves and some ease of movement down. But as I say the entry was above the LOD and this set-up should happen after a break of the LOD and pull back to the prior support.

So an execution error there. But then I messed up as I had noted in my game plan a red news event at 13:30 and my rules say close off 5 minutes prior if a trade is underwater. I missed this and the news spike took me out. I took a full stop when I could have taken a -1/2R loss.

The second trade was just about OK for rationale. We had a decent move down through support and consolidated. I took an entry off my MACD histogram with the signal line still showing a downtrend as we came into overbought in the trend channel. There were some signs of strength evident (a spring and lack of effort for reward on a preceding downwave), but the current trend takes precedence until there is a clear change of behaviour. That happened shortly afterwards and I was stopped out. I was itching to scratch the trade as I knew I had called it wrong after one price rotation, but I am focusing solely on developing discipline for setting stops and targets for this series of SIM trades. It was getting late and after 2 stop outs I called it a day.

A few notes to self today about trade selection and concentration. I have 3 more trades in this set of 7 SIM trades to show a profit and am flat after 4. But more importantly I mark myself 9/10 for not meddling with the trades once they are in the market. And that tells me I am accepting the risk and committing to my trade ideas better.

Could have done my job better today, but still happy with the progress.

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  #160 (permalink)
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Hi Mokodo, tough day yesterday for you. Hope you get something out of it. I wanted to ask about your entry rules because I'm still not definitely clear what triggers your entry. Your first entry was volume-based, right? I know what no-demand waves are, but I'm not sure what you mean by effort - is that purely high volume you're referring to?

Just my 2 British pence worth as well, I recognise (but might be wrong) a kind of over-compensation in you that I suffer from all the time. I focus on something too much (I'm thinking of your focus on not meddling with positions) and then I find that causes subconscious damage when I take losses but think 'that's good, because at least I'm not doing X'. The subconscious damage comes out as fear and excessive nervousness later on in different situations.

So I try to (and am not good at) reining in my enthusiasm to implement a new psych approach, to find the right balance from the word go. It's a masterstroke if you can get it right and more often than not I find myself lurching from one extreme to another. I don't know what your Inner Chimp says about it, but I'd love to know. I don't think there's an easy solution.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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