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Spot FX Day Trading: The Jigsaw


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Spot FX Day Trading: The Jigsaw

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  #131 (permalink)
Bridgwater, UK
 
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Nothing for me today. I could see signs of strength coming in as we were not making much further downward progress (shortening of the downward thrust) and there was a possible sell climax at the US open, followed by the largest demand wave since the breakdown last week. This put me on my toes for possible longs - but the bulls need to prove themselves and we have not yet held a close outside the supply line on my 60 min chart or jumped across the creek.

My pre-session game plan said to go long after a change of behaviour (which would need ease of upward movement through my upper band (creek) and a retest to hold on top. Or short a breakdown and retest under my lower band. Neither happened and we played around on yesterday's low all session. Gearing up for a move of sorts so I'll be watching what happens around the edge of the range.

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  #132 (permalink)
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Was messy with my execution today, but ended up in the green. Could have taken more out of the market as my game plan and upper and lower bands were spot on.

I had a long bias once I had completed my pre-session prep. There was lots of signs of strength coming in yesterday and through the Asian sessions. 07:00BST was a great long (but too early for me), there was no ease of movement down since the early Asian sessions high, right into a confluence of an axis line and demand line - and with a spring entry too. That would have been good for 40 pips or so to retest the Asian high and could of had a very tight stop for a decent R:R.

The long I did take was at around 50% of that leg entering on a MACDh signal - my idea was as there was strength in the background and we had shown good demand on the last two waves chances were fair for a trend day to test some the recent downmove. After we failed to advance past HOD and I spotted the shortening of the upward thrust I scratched the trade for a BE.

Price was caught in a range between yesterday's high and close until the US Open. I could see the effort and no reward as lower highs were being put in - and there was a violation of the demand line of my 60min chart. Signs of weakness were coming in and I was itching to short at the failed retest of the HOD, but did not have a valid signal. Price then broke and knifed through support at my lower band (ice level). Then I wanted to short the retest. The first attempt my signal was late and my entry was way off the ideal levels so I scratched it and waited for a another signal. I then took a MACDh signal (around the same level). My stops was within 1 pip of being taken out, but I sat through it and let the trade have a chance for the next few hours. Signs of strength coming in later in the session and it did not look like we would get a test of yesterday's low so I came out at just under a 1R winner.

Feel like I left a lot on the table today, but was in the groove and am happy with that.

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  #133 (permalink)
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We had dropped well under yesterday's close through the Asian session, so I had a short bias after doing my morning prep - although at this point there was a chance we were putting in a base around 1.3065, so I was open to potential longs if a there was an overt change in behaviour.

There was decent demand coming in through the London open but my game plan was to go short unless we broke my upper band. My short was after we rejected yesterday's close and had broken support / ice level through my lower band. I then got short on a retest on a MACDh signal. In hindsight my stop was too generous, above the previous high, I could have been more aggressive with a tighter stop. Steady but not breakaway progress for the next 2 hours and whilst support was flipping to resistance on the steps down, there was shortening of the thrust which put me on alert for the down move to be overturned. My first target was at the oversold line of the trend channel. My second taken out as price slowly reversed.

There is a sizeable demand wave which turned this low and a coupe of no supply bars which I did not take as I wasn't convinced bulls were yet in charge. News then helped to spike price up and I saw enough to take a long at around 50% of that initial upwave. Once we did not break the earlier ice level I figured there were still sellers there and scratched the trade.

I was looking for a short signal thereafter but did not get one until the break of the earlier low at 1.3015 but did not have a good enough R:R so passed on the trade.

A positive day with 1.6R returned, but as I say could have been more if I was more aggressive with my stop placement/position size.

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  #134 (permalink)
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Good trading, I like it.

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
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  #135 (permalink)
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Nothing for me today. My upper band was at the ice level of yesterday and the lower at yesterday's close, a 45 pip range. My game plan today was to believe the downtrend remained intact but to be watchful of a possible change of behaviour - as there have been signs of strength coming in. After the bulls inability to make significant higher highs through the London open I was looking for shorts, but could only do so after a drop through and failed test of yesterday's low. It never came and nor did a break and hold above 1.3050, my upper band which would have allowed longs.

A tricky day to attempt to trade IMO.

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  #136 (permalink)
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Closed the month without another trade. I was waiting for either a clear lower high under yesterday's high for a short or, my preference, longs after a higher low above yesterday's high.

Feature of the day is a monster of a demand wave that built for 2.5 hours that ran up to test the HOD. I could not tell if this is lack of result for the effort exerted or legitimate and steady buying. Given the context and the trend for the day I thought the odds were with the later, so I was looking for a long signal on a retest of the creek (at the upper band). The next retracement was shallow and close to the HOD, so I passed. OK with that decision as price action felt odd today (perhaps end of month/quarter money flows?) and I was not really feeling on the ball.

Will be doing my stats for the month and will post those up when I get a chance.

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  #137 (permalink)
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I scratched a lot of trades last month and the stats look odd because of that:

Based on 22 trades: win rate 32%, payoff 4.5:1, profit factor 1.44

I took trades on 11 days and was up on 6 of them. My pain ratio (MFE:MAE) was 2.1:1. I took full stops on 3 trades and hit either my first or both my first and second target 5 times (4 first target only, 1 both targets).

Money terms would have been about a 1.5% return of starting capital for the month.

I plan to be more confident and aggressive in July, I passed on trades too often and scratched others too early. I know this will come as my confidence in my amended trading plan grows. But I do need to push myself out of my comfort zone. I will also be spending less time actively trading. After doing my prep and game plan I will focus on London and US open. I think about 6 hours a day is my limit for screen time before my alertness slips.

And of course the big change will be going to cash from SIM. I'll be risking 0.3% of my trading account per trade for July.

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  #138 (permalink)
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Not pleased with myself. I had not fully completed my prep or game plan and took a trade. My bias on the day was long and I was looking for an entry after demand came in the US open. I was holding as the ISM numbers came out - against my trade plan, and I could have scratched the trade for a pip or two loss at that point. I held and took a full stop. After the threatening bear bars following the news release failed to turn the price lower, price turned to test the earlier highs

When I break one rule it is so much easier to break another. I think my eagerness to be more 'aggressive' may have been at the bottom of this error today.

I took myself out of the game after accepting I had strayed badly off my plan. Clean slate for tomorrow.

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  #139 (permalink)
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Yes I find the errors cause a chain reaction. It's always the minor errors that don't cause any financial loss which start it off and lead to a "real" error.

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  #140 (permalink)
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Missed the breakdown at the London open, I was waiting for a pull back to the ice level which never came. I then passed on a signal for the measured move lower. The R:R didn't look great and my game plan was a range playing out between 1.2990 and 1.3100.

I took a long as signs of strength came in at my lower band. It was a low volume second test of the spring at the day's low. I held on the basis that if buyers could overcome sellers at the top of the earlier congestion (also 50% of the swing) at around 1.3035 we could see a retest of yesterday's close / high or even the HOD for a 3:1 R:R against my initial 20 pip stop.

Sellers won the battle and my stop was taken out for a 1R winner. Good patience today to wait for the set-up to form.

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November 18, 2013


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