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Spot FX Day Trading: The Jigsaw
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Spot FX Day Trading: The Jigsaw

  #121 (permalink)
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Adamus View Post
sorry, just another stupid question: what's a no demand bar?

Lots of the shorthand comes from David Weis. See his site Learn the Richard Wyckoff Method of Trading from David H. Weis , there are archives going back a year of daily chart analysis. His book is also excellent 'Trades About To Happen'. I follow Trevor's journal here on futures.io (formerly BMT) https://futures.io/elite-trading-journals/18209-wyckoff-speculator-154.html#post335553 . Trevor has also done a futures.io (formerly BMT) webinar which is in the training video section. Do a search for Dr. Gary Dayton who also a respected Wyckoff trader/teacher.

And if you have the stomach for it all this stems from original works by Wyckoff. There are a few books and at least two courses I know of. The two courses are out of copyright and are freely available - sorry lost the links, but Google will no doubt help you out there. I would recommend going to the source as there is much wisdom in 100 year old knowledge!

And to answer your question: a no demand bar is a low volume pull back after a convincing high volume directional move. It says the buyers/sellers tried to reverse but quickly failed. In the graph it is shown in middle indicator panel as a 1 or 2 bar histogram wave after a larger opposing wave.

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  #122 (permalink)
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1 Loser, 1 Winner

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Naughty, naughty. I was up late last night and had not completed my morning prep by the London open. I said to myself, no trading until the prep is done. And then promptly jumped in on a trade. And was promptly run over for a full stop. Just desserts for trying to cut corners.

I then took a breather, completed the prep and said I would just look to recoup the loss and spend the rest of the day finishing off an indicator. And that, at least went my way.

The winner is at the US open. The morning down move shows shortening the thrust into the LOD, the large down wave shows the lack of reward for the effort expended in grabbing a mere 7 extra pips. Prior to that there was demand coming in in the prior two waves. The low volume pullback after the first demand wave off the lows told me an upmove may be starting and I got long on the next no supply bars - using the first big bull bar kicking of the second wave as more evidence.

Clearly holding for a retest of the days high would have netted a decent winner, but I wanted out of the market quickly so I could finish off the coding work. Again ending the day just a whisker in the green.

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  #123 (permalink)
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No Trades


No trading yesterday or today. Finalised tweaks to a couple of indi's, finished off some homework updating my daily tick list and trading plan. Race ready for next week. Brmm, brmm

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  #124 (permalink)
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No Trades

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Happy to stay out of this mush today

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  #125 (permalink)
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Two trades today. The first was an attempted short. The rationale was based on a possible buy climax on the drive up after the London open low put in at 1.3325. I couldn't see this going for another leg up. There was shortening of the thrust on the next two highs and I shorted the upthrust (after it appeared the minor spring has failed). There was one more rotation to make a double top. I did not expect this and it put me on a more cautious footing. The upwave was slightly heavier potentially overturning my idea that the upmove had exhausted itself. I scratched the trade after it came back.

The trade I missed for being too late and too cautious was the long at the lower high 1.3340 at the US Open. The wave down was as a result of news (US CPI numbers) and it looked like an empty move to me - so I expected it to reverse. The spring at the reverse trend demand line would have been the entry. But I was not confident or fast enough to commit to it.

My other trade was the next leg of that upmove, which showed some solid demand on the wave. There was three pushes down after the move met resistance at the HOD (1.34 handle) and I got long on the third set of no supply bars. My idea was that we may get a measured move of the first leg, 60 pips or so, which against my 15 pip stop is a sound return. Downside was that it was getting late and there was potential resistance from a couple of trend lines coming in over 1.3410. I closed it off for a 1R winner at 19:00 GMT.

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  #126 (permalink)
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Hi Mokodo,
do your trade stats support a 1:1 RR ratio? I mean, what's your win:loss ratio? If you don't mind me asking.

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  #127 (permalink)
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Hi @Adamus,

No, my current trade plan is to only consider trades with a potential minimum reward 3x risk. I will also only consider potential trades where the stop is <20% of the current 14 period daily ATR. I am after decent sized intraday swings, or just to get on and hold on to trend days. That's the purpose of the upper and lower bands I draw on pre session. These are the areas I think are going to be important for range or breakout - and therefore the most likely place where the two stated criteria may be fulfilled.

The trade I closed off this evening had targets at 1.3430-40, with an entry at 1.3390 on a 15 pip stop, but it was pretty clear to me that I was out of time and momentum was drying up quickly, so I just closed it out.

Regarding stats, too early to say as I am SIM-ing my amended trade plan for June to find my feet with it. But so far win rate is 31%, payoff ratio is 4.8:1 profit factor 1.49. As it's based on 13 trades I can safely say it will change a lot!

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Last edited by mokodo; June 18th, 2013 at 06:46 PM.
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  #128 (permalink)
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No Trades

Stood aside today - I don't trade news - as predictably quiet until FOMC, then a swift 150 pip drop in EURUSD. We should see some trade-able volatility coming back into the Euro.

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  #129 (permalink)
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Not that pretty today, but not all bad either...

After the fireworks post FOMC yesterday my plan was to be at my desk an hour earlier than usual to do my morning prep, I smelt a trend day and wanted in early. My own fault, I just didn't get up in time.

As I completed the prep I saw the entry pass me by. That is a no demand / MACDh entry at 08:10BST. The largest down wave of the day followed adding to my bearish bias. I did get short on the next MACHh signal as after it failed to get to the supply line of the trend channel. This trade got into profit pretty quickly but then signs of strength came in: possible sell climax, very little additional ground made with that down wave (indicating a lack of reward for the effort), a key reversal bull bar off the low, etc.

After the break of the downward trend channel I was looking to reverse my position on the next signal. I did that and banked the 1R winner. My idea was that the signs of strength would lead to a change of behaviour - long. I had some other things to do so set my targets and stops and left for the day, at this point I thought with US traders coming into play - and the US session has been the most active for the Euro lately - a directional move could get some momentum and I set my targets around the low and close of yesterday. Didn't play out like that and the second trade was scratched.

Whilst I was not trading the afternoon, there was lovely set up after the news spike to the LOD. Largest demand wave of the day comes in, a low volume pull back and MACDh entry signal that would have been good for 50 pips off a 15 pip stop.

So a bit peeved today. There were two great looking trades today, one I missed as I was late getting to my desk and the other as I was not trading. But not an easy day to read either with lots and volume and news releases. Once the dust settles through the Asian sessions, may be a bit smoother tomorrow and the early part of next week.

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  #130 (permalink)
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Kicking myself tonight. My pre session said this is short all day long. We were at 50% of the latest downswing the up waves since then showing little ease of movement. There was shortening of the thrust in the Asian sessions upwaves too. At the London open I also saw the lack of reward for the latest upswing as a lower high was forming. I have run stats on the EURUSD and know that a double top (or within +/- 10 pips of it) increases the chances of a bear trend day. So I got in - but prior to my signal which was after the next minor high. Knowing I had not entered correctly I got out and scratched the trade - but then could not pull the trigger for the proper entry. Perhaps my thinking was just a bit off after the mistake?

I had another signal at the start of the US Open but didn't take it - that was a MACDh entry on a retest of the ice, just before the big swing of the day. I don't know why I didn't take that either? I think I rationalised myself out of it as we were well off the highs of the day and thought perhaps we may not get through yesterday's low (my lower band).

Then I wandered right off the reservation at the end of the day and went long where I thought we were going to accept yesterday's low and come up to test yesterday's close. This trade was not in my daily game plan or a rule based set-up. The result - a timely slap on the cheek with a swift full stop. This was so 'obviously' a bear flag and potential measured move into the close.

This really was potentially a excellent day for my method as there were three great set-ups on offer. The man in the mirror had the issues today.

I have taken 17 trades since my re-start and have OK stats considering I'm getting into the swing of an amended trading plan. And the issues to work on are pretty clear too. 1. Stick to the daily game plan. 2. Don't over think the trades. So focus on that next week.

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Last edited by mokodo; June 21st, 2013 at 05:07 PM.
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