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Allistah's Weekly Options Seller Journal


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Allistah's Weekly Options Seller Journal

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  #61 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Opened three more bear spreads this morning. Here they are...



Most showed as being over extended and up against Fib lines.


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  #62 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

I just opened another bear call spread on CF. Got a great credit on it. I got a $2.98 credit on a $5 spread. This means that if I'm right and it expires worthless, I will gain $298 per contract. If I'm 100% wrong and take a max loss I will lose $202 per contract. We will see where this ends up...

Since the return on risk was so high, I couldn't not take it - especially with only a few more days to expiration.

The great thing about these ATM spreads, you can get such high credits that if they go against you they don't hurt no where nearly as much. You just need the key. The key is picking the direction correctly. I hope I'm right... ;-)


 
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  #63 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received


If this week bombs out for a loss I'll have to make some adjustments to earnings weeks and Fed reporting weeks. Only time will tell if I'm right on my bearish direction. lol

Current outlook for the Dow:

Monthly: Bearish, just entering oversold area, bearish divergence on MACD
Weekly: Bearish
Daily: Bullish, up against resistance of a 62% retrace fib and 62% alternate price projection fib, starting to show signs of weakness
Hourly: Bearish, up against resistance with a 78% retrace fib

I think I'll stick with my bearish stance still. Tomorrow and Wednesday's Fed announcements could jack everything all up.

-Allistah

 
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  #64 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

So my MA bear call spread is in trouble. My short strike is at 430. When I looked at the market first thing this morning, it had gapped up to around 445 putting the spread very close to max loss.

Ok, first reaction may be to close it down. But think about it, if you're close to max loss, why close it and lock in that loss? Give it that time to move the other direction in your favor. If it keeps going up so be it - then I'll take max loss on it. It happens - especially with a gap. It's part of the game and I'm not sweating it. Good thing I got a $2.07 credit on it. The max loss is not that bad considering the big picture. This is why it's important to have 7-10 trades on every week. It's the average that I care about. There will be times where I have 3-4 losers and the week will be a loss overall. It happens... <shrug>

Reason's why I didn't close it down:
  1. Stocks have a tendency to close the gap so that was in my favor.
  2. 445 is resistance from July 5-6.
  3. Couldn't maintain above the 100% alternate price projection fib or the 78% retrace fib on the 1 hour chart (not shown)



Any comments or thoughts?

-Allistah

 
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  #65 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Markets were up today a bit. Down about $150 per contract for all trades combined. Not much at all. Tomorrow will be interesting for sure. :-) I'm still bearish!

I'll look at the charts later and post my assessment.

-Allistah


-Alli

Sent from my iPhone

 
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  #66 (permalink)
Detroit, MI
 
 
Posts: 7 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 0 received


Allistah View Post
Markets were up today a bit. Down about $150 per contract for all trades combined. Not much at all. Tomorrow will be interesting for sure. :-) I'm still bearish!

I'll look at the charts later and post my assessment.

-Allistah


-Alli

Sent from my iPhone


I think you are in a good position being bearish. Stochastic is showing overbought plus bloomberg dot com news seem to be telling what market will be like tomorrow; Goldman Sachs revenue drop and Intel misses forecast....


Del

 
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  #67 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Here is my assessment of the Dow as of this evening:

Monthly: Bearish - Just barely reaching into over sold territory
Weekly: Bearish - Almost touched the 78% fib, heading down
Daily: Bearish - At resistance of 62% retrace fib and 62% alternate price projection fib, also in over bought territory,
Hourly: Bearish - At resistance of 62% alternate price projection fib, rolled over in over bought territory

When so many things line up like this, my bet is that tomorrow will be a down day. The weight is there to tip it over so we will see what happens.

Delanth, I agree with you on your assessment. :-) Tomorrow should be interesting for sure!

-Allistah

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  #68 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

At a loss of about $300 for all open spreads combined for 1 contract each. I'm still bearish, things are very overbought right now and I still have two days left for these spreads to pull themselves out of the fire.



-Alli

Sent from my iPhone

 
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  #69 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Ok, lets go trough all the spreads that are losing - four out of seven.

CF, CMG, MA, PCLN are all losing pretty good at the moment. Now is where I think I need some feedback from those who are very experienced. Let me talk about each one and what I think I should do or should have done.

I looked at all four. No clue what the hell I was thinking when I got into those. The daily charts are almost all OVER SOLD, not over bought. Well, this is why I'm doing this journal, so I learn from my mistakes and I have some sort of public accountability.

I'll post a couple of the charts back when I opened them - they all look about the same. Epic fail on these entries this week. I'll be a lot more attentive to when things are ripe for entry or not. If I have to wait a week on the sidelines then so be it.





-Allistah

 
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  #70 (permalink)
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received


I'm still in these trades for this week... I've been really busy with work and I got into a few others today...

I made a couple mistakes today as well. Got into two trades that have earnings at the end of the day so I got out of them right away. I'll update my spreadsheet later tonight.

Here are the trades...



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July 23, 2012


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