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The Learning Journal of RedK Trading Options...

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  #1 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

Glad i found this forum.. the spirit here is "different" in a positive and friendly way, which i find very appreciated.

i'm starting this journal to share my expereince, and learn from others, as i make my way thru the learning journey of trading options on US equities.. if you have something in common with me (see below), pls feel free to share knowledge and expereinces.. it's much more encouraging learning together since trading is not all winning all the time.. here's a quick background to set the stage:

- i started learning almost a year back .. since then, a lot of reading and self-studying. currently i'm reading 3 books at the same time on different areas of importance (in my openion) to my trading style
- like to think i'm a technical trader.. I'm on TOS .. have started to customize some existing indicators/studies.. and only recently did my first one from scratch .. i call it K-Trender, as it attempts to help me catch trends as they happen.. still learning my way thru TOS scripting..
- i will focus my trades on short-term (few days to 2-3 weeks).. some days i can take an intraday trade if attractive. and i don't mind holding some stocks if they're worth it
- I trade at level 1 only with my broker.. i'm happy with that, think i can do a lot with it, and avoid the complexities of option strategies at the higher levels. i also avoid use of margin completely (a matter of belief). so won't come close strategies that require margin use.
- i trade stocks/option of IT industry .. i feel more comfortable there since i follow it by nature of daily job. will go out of the way for something REALLY attractive and solid (an example i'm watching with interest now is CERN)
- i have a quarterly profit taregt (set at 10%).. trading is so far a hobby but i would like to understand how far we can go (trading and I), for longer term, can this be a full-time business that supports itself and cover all expenses .. that will make me a happy retired guy in 5 years

so far, my expereince has been "OK"'ish .. i can see my trades improving from when i started (i was trading blind back then , and the custom indicators are somehow helping me catch the setups i'm trying to be in.. i'm bad when it comes to setting stop losses, or taking a loss.. also stopping myself from doing impulsive trades (can't help the rush and adrenaline)..

Starting this journal to help those who are on the same road like me, and to help me improve my trading skills & knowledge. i will share my trades and the "case" behind them, and will truely appreciate all tips, tricks, advices, experiences from those ahead of me that would like to share...

see you soon,
RedK

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  #3 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received


As a level 1 trader, best choice will be to try to identify and ride good, directional trends with basic option plays. i use the word "good" as currently it's good enough for me to stay 2-4 days on same direction with a long Call or Put.. and my target would be done. so a "strong" trend is something else, and ultimately i would love to get into one and all my quarter target is done in 1 trade.. i'm trying to prepare my chart set up to help me with that..

so what i can do in 2-4 days of trend (disclaimer: this is not an advice to any fellow traders to do the same.. we should all use strategies within limits of our risk tolerance)
  • Sell cash-covered put (weekly or current month): to my surprise, this is where i did best in analysis of past statement & trade history for 2 quarters.. (the option writer advantage?) but i do my homework to ensure the only way the stock will go is up (bottom fishing), and use stocks i don't mind owning for a while just in case.. also leverage periods of high IV if low risk (earnings of strong players)
  • get long Put or Call (ATM, weekly or current/next month, with around 0.5 delta, you get $50 per $1 move of underlying, 10 contracts get you $500, 20 contracts get you $1K).. we accelerate as the option gets deeper ITM .. no, i don't use spreads for protection, i will simply exit with loss if the trade doesn't go my way. timing is very critical here, and also simple tools like Stop limit orders.
  • Sell Covered call (if i own the stock and it's going down)
  • ...etc (currently looking for others plays i can use)

Best indicators i found (while keeping my chart setup as simple as i can): combine the signals from these for a confirmed directional move .. trying not to use correlated ones.. hope i got it right:
  • Before all: historic price action: S/R levels and trend lines (now studying chart & candle patterns too).. look at weekly AND daily charts and ensure we have alignment. i have BB on the price chart as i found it incredibly useful.
  • ADX/DMI: i use a customized version .. (will share shortly for everyone's benefit and feedback)
  • K-Trender (my own): based on price action and multi MA's.. gives an indicator of strong vs weak trend based on MA movement and price action (delta) from MA lines (includes a MACD)
  • MFI: with an additional MA line.. shows me MFI in more recent timeframe vs the longer timeframe.. simple but more effective.

i have tried to "standardize" on many indicators, RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Regression Channels, Fibo, ... but then came back to the conclusion that price & volume action (and indicators) are THE masters of the game, so my confidence is high with current setup and it tells me a lot. MACD is price action based, and i inlcuded it in my Trender.. on it's own, i find it a bit deceiving.

next post, will share a snapshot of my chart setup .. and would love to hear some feedback from others ahead of me on the "story" so far...

"Green Lines" to all..!
RedK

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  #4 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

Closing the week early.. as i'll be away tomorrow..
3 winning trades, not super.. missed couple of opportunities

the winners:
  1. Cash Covered Put on AAPL (weekly), closed on Monday.
  2. Cash Covered Put on ORCL Weekly - held overnight. catch the inflated IV (~70%) on earnings, then closed next day on market open after IV went down. ORCL climbed almost 5% on that day (Tuesday) and that helped a lot. bought back the put at 0.03
  3. Covered call on QCOM (i hold the stock and trying to make up the loss as it goes down from April highs). this was an intraday trade as i didn't want to keep it open. my Trender indicator helped .. Sold @ 1.58 and bought back @ 1.15

Opportunities i missed (learning)
  • MSFT --> major announcement (Surface) and stock jumped.. could have done a 2 day "news" trade with simple long Call
  • STX --> was waiting for it to continue the down-trend.. happened today with -7% move, but i wasn't focused enough to catch it early.. just watched it go by
Next week plan: mainly will continue to watch GLD, QCOM, NVDA for a reversal up, remove CERN from watch list, STX possible continuation down. keep an eye on the other usual suspects...

the question .. if you're using ADX and can help me validate the thought:
One of the ways i have customized my ADX/DMI indicator in ToS is by removing the "absolute value" of the "DI-" in the DX line calculation. the result is that, if the trend is down, ADX line (the MA of DX) will go into negative (we get a clear zero-line crossing) on the indicator, and if it's up, ADX crosses 0 and moves up. it provides a clear reversal signal ( the reversal happens when the slope of that line changes as it hits a bottom or top and swings back.. 0 crossing is a stronger trend confirmation). mathematically, it's still making sense (although a different way of interpretation).. here's the calc after removing the AbsValue() Note: in my final version, i removed the IF statement as it's redundant given DI- is always a positive amount ..

def DX = if ("DI+" + "DI-" > 0) then 100 * ("DI+" - "DI-") / ("DI+" + "DI-") else 0;
plot ADX = expAverage(DX, ADXFastEMA);


i prefer it much better this way.. always was unhappy with the original ADX indicator being non-directional.. anyone tried this, do you see any problem with calculating a modified ADX this way, if i'm missing something?

Until next week, green lines to all,
RedK

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  #5 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
RedK's Avatar
 
Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

Haven't traded since last week.. saw something on Volume Spread Analysis.. caught my attention and got very interested.. this is a big topic and i was looking for something that shows me how volume plays a role in the stock move.. but i don't like the complexity of VSA.. i'm sure there's an easier way to reflect that volume impact on price move.. the most useful and interesting indicator i have found so far among all that focus on volume is MFI .. so spent the next few days creating a simple volume indicator that i called "VolumePressure" .. looks promising .. i can't do proper backtesting, but initial "visual" testing looks promising and i think it will be a key indictaor for me.. i now have my customized ADX/DMI, and my own created Trender & VolumePressure (will post if there's interest or someone would like to test and feedback)

been following NVDA for sometime.. and based on yesterday's action (triggering a bullish signal in Trender and VolumePressure) i opened a new long Call position today.. even with the big negative move today, NVDA is holding ground so it seems on the right track for me.. here's the position

BOT +20 NVDA 100 AUG 12 13 CALL @.92
Target date: 3-4 weeks
Target price: $2.00 when underlying around $14.80

expected Resistance levels: 13.6 & 14.4 so i'll be on the guard and may exit earlier around these levels..

My QCOM keeps losing ground, the only other position i now have .. but i'll hold .. it's indicating possible reversal but lacks confirmation. i'll keep enhancing my BE price by selling calls against it. so far i'm doing well with that (relatively)..

Tip: to keep track of unusual volume action i added this custom column in my ToS watchList.. it compares current volume to a long average (to avoid inconsistencies).. i'll next enhance it by comparing volume size up to that "time of day" to long term average of same period of day.. but it kind of does the trick now (when you see volume hitting 15% in first half hour, that's unusual)..

Plot v = round((volume /average(volume,200)*100),1);
assignbackgroundColor (if v > 200 then color.blue else if v > 100 then color.dark_Green else if v <= 100 then color.dark_RED else color.CURRENT);


will check-in later, green lines fellow traders,
RedK

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  #6 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

Starting the week, and before the market opens, i always check this link among others, so thought to share with fellow traders .. if you're like me, been looking for realtime prices gadget to put on your desktop and can't find a decent one, you may find this trick simple & useful....

AAPL, NVDA, ARMH, QCOM, STX, MSFT, INTC, ORCL, IBM, GOOG, HPQ, GLD, SLV

you can replace the symbols with the ones you watch, then add the link to you favorite.. these are realtime prices from CNBC, and they work pre-market and after hours.. even on the ipad and mobile, i have the same link .. while i do have the CNBC market app on the ipad.. it's still the quickest way to keep track of your important stocks..

Green lines to all traders,
RedK

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  #7 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

just closed the NVDA calls.. my new indicators (worked on them over the weekend) show it will dip first (for coupole days) before picking up again.. i will be there then. the dip started early today (NVDA down 3.0%)

Open $0.92 closed $1.05 or $260 profit before comms.. i was looking at $800 since Friday as the calls slightly moved over $1.30, but let it slip.. not upset, the lesson is worth it, and will come around later.

the learning..
1. if i get a good profit within a day or 2 from open (good means i'm SO "surprisedly happy" with), close and take profit.. it would be a gap that will retrace quickly (most probably) .. when it re-traces you can re-open the position again on the way up..(but i already knew that one. just not following it .. the next one, was a big eye opener for me, a real Aha! moment..)

2. volume is sooo important.. did some homework on it over the weekend, inspired by some Wyckoff/VSA material & TradeGuider videos i haven't come across before.. so built 3 custom indicators (i call them VolPressure, PriceVolBias, and VolumeFlow - some shown on the charts) to help me see what this is all about.. and WOW!! (see how the charts show better entries & exits for the NVDA position, very clear on the 15min ... the circles are my actual entry/exit - the vertical lines show "better entries/exit" based on indicator signal - the DMI then the volume-based ones confirming .. or is it the other way around ) .. i had this view setup only after i was already in the trade, but from now on, they are my guide..
(if anyone is interested, i can further explain the setup & indicators)

- researched around some blogs and forums, i'm amazed how so many traders (like me) don't look at volume or volume-based indicators, and only follow the price action (and price-based indicators)..OK, so we're all guilty (most of us at least).. when i saw how much volume-based indicators can tell you (in Wyckoff's context, it's cause & effect, so looking at price only is like analyzing the effect and following it).. Volume action is like the "leading indicator" .. the cause, the fuel of the engine .. OK, so have to always look at both.. i'm a believer now ..

- i'm not going all the way to VSA style analysis, and will keep this simple.. i'll look at how volume is moving from different angles (pressure, accumulation..) and different time frames, combine with price action, and make a better decision. if anyone is reading this journal, you should look at combining some volume-based indicators to your trading method.. if you haven't already.




Let's see how this works with my next trades.. does it improve my gains.. will also practice this set up on SIM for sometime..
Green lines to all,
RedK

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  #8 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

had 5 trades in previous week. 1 loser, and 1 winner - the rest, closed near open but no loss. i can better identify trade entry much better compared to previous weeks - exits, not improving
NVDA moved down as expected, but i missed an opportunity to make better gains as it moved 1 day later than expected and i was already scared out.

this leads to reflecting on all recent trades i made, and (i hope) i managed to identify the next 2 weaknesses to focus on. (all feedback appreciated)

1. better identify multi-day moves, and the best entry point. in few cases, i would enter too late, then there's no enough days to make profit on an option trade --> solution: i should check and follow my setup and signals consistently. if possible, find another set-up that can identify multi-day uni-directional move and signal as soon as they start. this inspired an idea for an indicator that compars 2 RSI's of fast/slow lengths. resulting signals look promising with visual backtesting. so that's my 2nd trusted set-up beside the "Pressure-based" one above. i also added the formula as a custom column in my WatchList. now i can see it all times.

2. lousy exits. among the 4 winning trades, i passed on a profit of $1,300. i see the figure in my P/L and just let it go by .. grrr! yes, for these trades, i didn't set a target before i open the trade. i still managed to lock $500, but i consider it a lost opportunity. position mismanagement? no, it's my exit strategy (or lack of one). --> solution, if i'm not sure where the multi-day move will end, set initial exit at 35% profit and monitor. if it keeps moving in my direction, move it up to 50%, and exit then. an exit stop should be at 25% (downward), and an exit loss at -10%. best trades i had when i pre-set my target with an OCO, but in so many cases, my orders will not fill (gaps or other reasons - reported to broker)

It's tech earnings week(s). so have only kept 1 stock position (QCOM), and no option trades open. will watch things carefully. had bad surprises before holding positions thru earnings, so will only trade if an attractive high-volatility setup shows.. otherwise, keep sharpening my saw.

green lines all traders,
RedK

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  #9 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

managed to squeeze a quick trade on INTC. followed the signals and the price action closely. i rarely make intraday trades, but wanted to test how well would i do to improve entry & exit, and sort of the opportunity presented itself.

well, entry was "on signal" - and not an impulsive shot so far after. so that's progress. exit i managed manually since i was sitting there - and wanted to close the trade before leaving the PC.

i'm also getting more confident about my pressure-based setup.

After INTC opened with a run up, selling pressure came in on strong volume for arond an hour from open. that was my trade window. 20x Aug 25 Puts, in and out .. BOT 0.85, sold for 0.96, for $220 excl comm. not bad for a quick test. (vertical lines show buy/sell on chart and the signals)

there was another excellent one after on calls as the buy pressure went back in (in anticipation of earnings?) .. saw it after i came back to PC.. no worries. more will come.



still need to work on exits, and do this cycle on multi-day trades. that's where i want to be next.

NB: i worked further on my custom indicators, so new versions show in this screen vs previous ones. still need to enhance the DMI for better visibility.. i don't like that histogram anymore.

Grren Lines,
RedK

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  #10 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received


looks like investors initially liked the tech earning results, but the initial reaction quickly faded. my QCOM stocks gained but then started moving down again. My analysis shows a possible quick retracement to $57 level. tried to lock the move up by buying puts, timing was wrong and i got stopped out. move down continued today, so i sold Aug 57.5 covered call and will continue to watch. if it breaks my $57 support level, will then go in and buy protective puts.

INTC case is different. my chart analysis show they will go back to continue downward trend (my expected reversal level is around $24.2) after the quick earnings reaction. so after watching the action, i opened a trade with 20 x Aug 26 Puts @ $.93

today i share my first custom ToS indicator as promised. will appreciate all feedback. i started to love building my own indicators in ToS, and spend a long time doing so. the script engine in ToS isn't great, but simple and effecient enough and it brings back nice memories of the time i used to write code early 90's .. so i enjoy playing with some indicator ideas inspired from books or other sources. my focus is still on creating what can help me catch multi-day/week moves in the same direction .. trend-hunting sort of.

so here's one of my firsts, which is my own customization of the current Directional Movement Index/Indicator (DMI), with ADX for ThinkorSwim. IMHO, ADX/DMI is one of the best technical indicators for price movement. i wanted to make it easier to visualize and action on. was always confused by the fact that ADX is non-directional, so i changed that. you can try with different timeframes and instruments.. i only use it to identify significant price moves & trends for stocks & option trades. if it works on futures and others, great ..

link below to where i posted it. in above posts, you can see KR_DMI V2 & V3 in the screenshots. i posted V4, which adds some visual enhancements. this custom indicator will not be posted on any other forum so appreciate if you do not share outside of futures.io (formerly BMT)

https://futures.io/download/vip_elite_circle/1227-download.html?view

Green lines fellow traders,
RedK

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  #11 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

A quick update of my custom ToS KR_DMI study to V4B - details here..
https://futures.io/download/vip_elite_circle/1229-download.html?view

i'm not a ToS script guru, just trying to make the indicators simpler, effective and easier to view/use. reflecting how i like to interpret the price & volume action on the chart. feedback welcome.

I just wish i can see it this way on the iPad Trader

RedK

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  #12 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TOS, TradeStation
Broker: OX, TradeStation
Trading: Stocks & Basic Options
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

Closed the QCOM covered call for $1.55 .. around $200 profit. could have left it to run, but i'm worried QCOM is on a reverse move upward, and AAPL earnings on Tuesday may have some impact on QCOM.

INTC puts still going. funny it hit may target with a gap down on open, but i didn't exit. i didn't have my STOP in place. have to be more strict with my rules. what's the point of having rules if I don't follow them. So as a fix, i re-reviewed my chart and placed an OCO for a tight Stop Loss and Exit Gain, my analysis shows it still in the right direction, so can stay for couple more days. action around closing time sort of supported this thought. will monitor closely now that i have the stops in place.

sharing another simple study, K_betterVolume_V1 on this link. if you're like me, expect to see volume bar color reflecting the current period price move (and not compared to prior period like the way the default works in ToS), then you may like it. it's just a simple customization of the default VolumeAvg study. i added a 2nd moving average to it as well.
https://futures.io/download/vip_elite_circle/1231-download.html?view

excited about AAPL earnings tomorrow. funny to watch how the market reacts to a company delivering 60%+ revenue increase .. but that's another story.

RedK

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  #13 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

Closed INTC Puts @ $1.32 yesterday for $780 profit - INTC reversed up today as expected - happy i exited at the right time.

AAPL Earnings plays:
  • yesterday Sold 1 AAPL weekly 575 put for $6.4 (IV play)
  • reaction to AAPL earnings wasn't great, put is trading around $4 and is 2 days to expiry, so will leave it as i see buyers coming in and expect AAPL would pick up slightly tomorrow
  • today BOT 1 Deep ITM AAPL Aug 550 Call at the dip ($29.30). got in the green during the day, but closed slightly red. target to exit when AAPL in the $580-$590 range, or within next week, whichever is sooner.

wondering if anyone in the forum is trading same style as i am (basic options, multi-day swing .. at least that's what i think i'm doing ).. feels so lonely when i mostly see futures or forex fellow traders all around...

will post results.
Green line all traders,
RedK

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  #14 (permalink)
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Posts: 171 since May 2012
Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

just closed the AAPL position. thoughts behind it:
  • i don't like the action post-earnings. didn't get new highs today, so my expectations now is that AAPL will drift lower for a week or so before getting some strength. (will keep watching, it's in a great territory for a simple long Call play)
  • yes, it was double daily volume yeaterday after the earnings, but it didn't help carry the stock up, and today's volume showing lack of interest. so i got spooked out.
  • My cash-covered Put trade was a volatility play, i got most of the profit once volatlity dropped & don't want to wait expiry tomorrow, no point holding it longer if i get 60% profit with the big risk (if the stock drops, i don't want to tie the cash)..
then today i was like trying to force the indicators to show me what i'd like to see (that it will move up NOW), finally gave up and decided to go with the gut feel and play safe.

Buy to close 1 AAPL weekly Put 575 @ $1.99 profit $441
sell to close 1 AAPL Aug Call 550 @ $28.35 loss $100
net of 2 AAPL trades, $331 profit ... not so excited but happy - wasn't a bad week.



tomorrow a new day, next week a new week
green lines all traders,


RedK

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Dubai, UAE
 
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Thanks: 44 given, 143 received

bad week for me..
after closing AAPL position at small gain (300 bucks), the position rallies and i saw a lost opportunity of around $1,200

then i update my chart setup .. adding updated indicators i just finished working on. then take trades without waiting for the signal. grrrrr! i'm just too eager to pull the trigger, then the fear of losing. 2 losing trades in a raw. and i played the weeklies *in both* (i set a rule before not to play the weeklies until i'm totally confident).. so mad with myself.

not sure what's wrong.. not focused, too eager to gain, too worried to miss or lose. not the right mind-set .. i was better before, even now that i have a better set-up that helps me see the action clearly .. am I confusing myself looking at too many timeframes (15min, 1 hour, 2-hour, daily..)?

is it back to the sim for me? i hate losing real money that i just made.
why don't i follow my own indicators? you look back and say, how the heck did i take that trade, it's as obvious as the sun that this is the wrong direction. it's just so clear in retrospect.

need to build confidence. will not open new trades until all signals align properly and on a daily + 1 hour aligned. will spend time in the sim and OnDemand to learn my own indies.

hopefully next post will be a positive one. hope my mode isn't contagious.
green lines all fellow (good) traders,
RedK

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  #16 (permalink)
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so couple of bad trades last week, taking me back a lot on my quarterly target. i know the issue. i was trying a new idea, new setup, then to add salt to injury, i used weekly options against my own rules.. then all week this week, not having enough confidence to pull the trigger on new trades, and waiting for what should be an ideal confirmation...

it got me thinking if i'm in the wrong timeframe altogether.. i want to ride multi-day trends, and i don't want to / can't afford to watch the screen all trading sessions with fingers on the trigger, every hour every day, and i want to make few and profitable trades.. this is not supposed to be labor work (with all due respect to fellow day traders.. pls don't get upset or flame me, it's just not me).. this is supposed to be "brainy" stuff.. i also saw reviweing my past trades, that i made some really good trade entries, then chickened out only to watch them go in the direction i expected, and i miss big on profits.. what's wrong here? some adjustment must be due to the way i trade. i need to learn from what's not going well, and get myslef to a better level that suits the way i want to trade. isn't this what this journey is all about?

i zoom out my timeframes.. i know i should be looking at a shorter one, and a longer one, so my short-term trend trades are in the direction of the longer trend.. but i was looking at 15min vs 4 hours.. thought is, the 4 hours will reflect the daily trend as well.. so i should be safe taking trades along the daily trend but see a slightly "zoomed-in" version of it. the 15min kept me anxious all the time, with many ups & downs, wondering, is this time to make a move?

then i expand into a day vs a week view.. and things there look much simpler, with less room to go wrong.. see the charts i attach for 2 of the symbols i follow.. the crosshairs show where the needed trend starts on both timeframes. Man,it looks much easier to capture these trends and my indicators just screamed the upcoming moves.. i will need to use options with further expiration (which is fine) or just go and buy the stock (buy & hold)

Am I on the right track here? me thinking aloud, hoping to hear advice from someone who "has been there before me" .. so this is RedK on a change in the same journey, just a shift in strategy and my new trades will align to this new timeframe.. we'll see how it goes from there

Green Lines to all,
RedK




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  #17 (permalink)
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improving my setup by setting to a wider timeframe. i'm finding out that i will always need to look at a good timeframe pair to get meaningful visibility on price action..
day vs week works well for longer trades (few days in position)
hour vs day also can work well for multi-day positions
15min vs hour .. hmm! ok, but will show possible intraday moves, which i want to avoid for now
15min vs day .. not good.. the 2 timeframes are not suitable together and will be confusing. same for hour vs week.. avoid.

so after modifying timeframe/aggregation and set up my charts to look at the chosen timeframe pair, i feel i can better identify good moves to trade.

took an option trade in NFLX. Entry/exit as marked on the chart. there was a better entry but i was too eager to try the improved setup, and also set an exit too tight not wanting to give back profit. but i loved it. confident position, price moved as expected. in fact, after i got out, i was expecting the move to ease down, as shown by my VMI indicator on the right (this VMI always moves ahead of price, it's based on recent Volume pressure.. a leading indictaor? maybe .. but it's doing well so far)


5 NFLX Sep 57.5 call bought @ 5.4 on Fri, sold @ 6.9 --> $750 profit. the move continued after i was stopped out, but today is easing down. i see the trend on longer timeframe slowing/breaking and expect it may gain strength after that again. so i'm waiting. happy the improved setup works well, and will try to commit to it from now on.

just posted my custom Stochastic Momentum Index (KR_SMI_v2). i found that i need a momentum indicator with the trend studies, to better "see" the end of a move. so that's what i use. feel free to try and share feedback.
https://futures.io/download/vip_elite_circle/1251-download.html?view

so now, all indicators i use in my setup (except for the NetRSI/VMI.. it's just a crazy idea i'm playing with, so will leave aside for now)are posted here and in a future post i will also share the method in a simplified way, for the benefit of others who may find it useful.

cheers,
RedK

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  #18 (permalink)
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Took a long Put trade on INTC .. followed my signals, checked the bigger timeframe chart.. even waited for retracement (upward) yesterday before hitting the trigger on buying them.. INTC gapped down on the open today, and i happily closed the trade for a good 50% profit ... i wish they all go like this.

i wanted to hold longer, but my chart says i should question the continuation of the move. there's a support level near by. Also market made a big move down today overall, that doesn't happen everyday. if a quick move makes me so happy in a shorter time than i planned, i will take profit and exit.. and keep watching if it resumes later...



2nd trade was selling covered call on my QCOM stocks.. but QCOM kept trading in a range, so i closed it almost at 0 profit. trying to learn not to be in a position that doesn't make money, and for QCOM to hold it's ground with such a down market, that's strength. so close now and check back later when there's a direction.


the thing that looks like a lego/ladder on the left-hand chart is a Price Levels indicator that i put together quickly, to be able to follow the move of price "in levels" .. or increments of a certain $ value or percentage. be warned, it's nice, simple but also very addictive ... you can see breakouts much easier this way, and i can play with the "level unit" to change it in different ways (% or dollar) .. if you like something similar to Darvas Box, or Range Charts, you you may like that one (note: i didn't like the Darvas Box study in ToS - IMHO, it doesn't reflect the correct Floor/Ceiling of price ranges).
https://futures.io/download/vip_elite_circle/1253-download.html?view

next few days, i'm watching NVDA, STX and GM for possible uni-directional moves (all down). looks like it's gonnabe a "short-summer"

Green line fellow traders,
RedK

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  #19 (permalink)
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after reading more about 9/30 method i got inspired. i want to do the same, simple setup, clear to identify, consistent entry/exit-loss location, and you ride it for few hours, a day or 2, or as much as it gives you.. with options as a proxy to the underlying, the profit potential is there.

so spenttime in those past 2 weeks improving my indicators to adjust to the same concept, but ont copying it exactly. the 30WMA is almost the same as 20EMA. so i'll stick to my trender settings of 10/20/40 or 5/10/20EMAs. but need something to show me short-term moves for entries and exits (if things don't go as planned) while i still look at Trender to stay with the longer-term trend.

first, added a simple volume ratio weight to the ADX/DMI .. it shows me where the volume behind the current move is going, and i use the same calc of the +Di/-Di but apply on the ratio of volume compared to volume average of same DMI length.. sound promsing and acts as a leading indicator.
then i wasn's happy with my SMI. my mind can't relate the SMI move to my Trender or DMI. i ended up doing 2 things
1. created "Sloper", an indicator that calculates the change in slope angle of an EMA and provides a signal up or down on reverses of direction. thought i would use it to complement Trender to id short-term moves
2. added a Fast_Momentum line to my Trender,, and wow, amazing.. the calculation was simple, take the fast EMA and calculate where it's position within it's own Hi/Lo channel. drawn on a chart, this is a great indicator to where the price is between it's Hi/Lo range.. and we have momentum..short-term.. exactly what i need. i even tested it in 2 live trades on the spot and got them both right (ok, doesn't mean much.. i will stress-test it more

the funny thing, the addition of this Fast_momentum line to Trader given exactly same signal as the Sloper, at exacly the same candles.. (setting to same EMA length). also i compared it (visually on few charts) to PPS (John Person's Proprietary System which is built-in in TOS), and results very good.

the 2 trades were like 2 hour long, but since i was always bad in intraday ,i thought that's a big change.... gives me a lot of confidence.. i feel i have bigger weapons now and better prepared to "engage" .. we'll see what happens next, i need to make up for this quarter target and missed so much experimenting.. focus.. focus..

if anyone is curious about my improved Trender, you can find it here in the Elite section. feel free to share feedback or a note.. or if you think i'm going completely off track with this
https://futures.io/download/vip_elite_circle/1261-download.html?view

enjoy your long weekend, and happy trading,
RedK

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  #20 (permalink)
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i keep working on improving & simplifying my setups ..

the improved version of K_Trender allowed me to remove the SMI, as i now have the Fast_Mom built into it.

After some research, i could find out that the concept of K_Trender can be technically positioned as 3 stochastics averaged together, with a twist: each stoch is scored against the next EMA - I use 3 EMAs, then the price itself is measured against the fastest. so Fast EMA relative to Medium channel, and Medium EMA relative to slow channel... this is to mathematically map the original chart setup i started from and have all scored within a +100/-100 range. Fast_Mom, the late addition, is a regular stochastic of the fastest EMA of all 3, against it's own Hi/Lo (Donchian Channel). so in reality, the 2 lines are not directly related, although they look at the price action. but it's more like having 2 indicators plotted on top of each other. but, well, it works.

i spent few days comparing this technique to other possible "trend/momentum" calculations i can use (single line, within a BB or Keltner channels..etc). it seems the concept of the 3 averages delivers smoothness, while allowing the Trender line to also respond to fast price moves (33% of its weight is from fast price).. so it's more sensetive that just using a single-EMA stochastic and produces better signals this way. at the end of the day, if the short term move is stronger, it wins (with equal share within a 100%, Trender moves up), otherwise, the long term (also 33% percent share of total) prevails. i think this is simple concept but effective. then when all 3 EMAs cross, the total is 0 - producing a crossing of the zero line and Trender jumps to the other side. the addition of Fast_Mom opened a whole new dimension of comparing relative speeds (the fast one to the combined effect)- not sure if i could explain.. it's really "easier plotted than told" ..

i love that i understand the way my own indicator behaves.. and that there's no magic/external ratios but only interpretaion of price and the short/mid/long EMA moves.

i made 3 trades so far using signals from my new K_Trender. 2 Intraday small winners (as test), and one is currently an open position (Covered Call on QCOM to benefit from the down move). marked the entry point on the left-side chart and the K_Trender signal.



(meet my new setup .. only DMI & K_Trender - but running out of colors )

the 10min chart shows continuing to slightly "increasing weakness". the hourly (right-side) agrees. so QCOM looks like will continue tomorrow to side-ways or slightly lower (given the prevailing trend is to downside). on the daily (which i don't show here) Trender shows the beginning of a new wave of down trend. i have my eyes on some October ITM Puts to secure my stock position.

thanks for the positive feedback on K_Trender latest update. if there's interest, pls let me know and i'll start a separate thread to capture observations on how to use it, the signals you may expect, and how to improve for different styles for everyone's benefit. Also we can discuss the Trender_TopChart. it's the study you see on the right-side price chart. it plots the 3 EMAs used in K_Trender and provides option of a price channel to visualize the trend (BB, Keltner, Donchian..etc)... a nice gizmo to play with

Also apologies if the "position recommendation" ChartLabel on K_Trenders_v5 still refers to the main trend line. in a future update, i will add the impact of Fast_Mom as it adds some more insight. just need some time as it's not as straight forward.

Green lines all traders,
RedK

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  #21 (permalink)
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these new indicators are doing well so far.. helping me stay in a trade when i should, or get a better exit if it's exit time .. it's amazing how much more insight you gain once you use indicators that you know how they work from the inside, that can make you better understand what the price is "telling you"...

inspired by friends i made here on the forum (thank you, you kow who you are ), i made a new study today based on MA crossing.. it was quick to put together and i stole the idea from part of my K_Trender code. put added better visulaization and simplicity.. color for the trend, signal up & down for the position.. and it's a trend catcher.. posted herehttps://futures.io/download/vip_elite_circle/1267-download.html?view

will call it the TraderRibbon.. not only i like the effectiveness, but honestly, it also looks attractive on a black background. i thought plotting something like this was only possible in NT and not for ToS..

TraderRibbon will not only show trends up & down and signals, but also helps identify chops. when the candle start penetrating the ribbon to the other side (from where it used to be during a trend) or from both sides, that's a chop.. stay out, and wait until you see a signal (reversal in most cases) and the candle's whole body is only on one side of the ribbon..

for anyone using Trender, the fast_Momentum signal in Trender is *not by crossing the main line*, but it's in changing color. once Fast_Mom sitches colors, that means the fast momentum is taking a different direction that the long term.. and the best trades are when they're both in agreement (Cyan + Greed) or (Orange + Red) .. the main line has an additional "Yellow" state which is "no Trend" like a detection of a chop, or "no gain", or slow down of momentum in the direction of the current move. it doesn't mean a reversal.. that can be a bit confusing when you see indicator pointing down and the price still goes up .. but think of a car moving forward, slightly touch the breaks, it slows down but still moves forward.. it will only get in reverse with a major force pushing it backwards ... that's when the line crosses zero and price heads for a fresh down move.

good trades yesterday .. and i even used weeklies.. confidence building.. i know after 6 months i will still be saying the same.. it's a journy and a lot to learn..

RedK

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Been suffering for a long time from having different timeframe charts (each with it's set of studies & settings) telling me contradicting signals - i'm looking for entry or exit on same stock in both charts.. the 15min says "go", and the 1Hr says "don't" ..

i did some reading, some research on how others trade & here's what i figured out.. the charts can "speak" to me better now.. this is like suffering from weak eyesight, and then you go to the doctor and you get new pair of glasses.. and WOW.. ! i can truly see the details
the same concept is also found in Edler's books. for me, major leanring ...


i shared this with a fellow trader and got the impression this may be valuable to share in the journal..

- i usually use 2 timeframes, a longer one, say 1 hour, for strategic analysis (trend direction, volume action...) and a shorter one, say 15mins for tactical execution (see best point of entry and exits..). apply the same for any other pair (1min vs 5min, 5min vs 15min, day vs week..etc) and i save these pairs as a grid in ToS so i can quickly switch between pairs.

- the issue i had before, i had no alignment of "scale" of studies between the 2 charts, or relating that scale to study settings.. i use a trend study on top, volume and momentum as main indicators on lower studies for both charts.. each on it's own settings (maybe the famous ones) .. wrong!! this is where i have to get conflicting messages .. it's all confused..

Putting things in order:
1. Decide the timeframe you want to look at for the strategic analysis (right chart).. say I choose 12 hours.. that’s like 1.5 days of trading. good for short-term option positions. for stocks I may use a daily chart with 10 period setting (2 weeks) so the trend signal is meaningful. let’s use hourly and 12 for the example..
2. calculate the factor between the time aggregation of the 2 charts ---- 1 hour to 15mins is 1 to 4 .. I’ll call this 4 my “zoom factor”
3. for the trend study (I use Trader_Ribbon), set the right chart on a settings that you like to identify & “catch” a trend (I’ll use from above, 12) – but if I use another trend study that also includes a fast length, I would use 3.. so my trend study settings are 12 & 3
5. Volume on the right (if you look at an EMA volume) use the same 12
6. Momentum on the right, use the same settings (12 for main length and 3 for fast)..

now comes the left chart .. every 4 bars on left = 1 bar on the right. I want the trend study to reflect the same trend from right chart (not a different, confusing, smaller moves).. because the right chart is the one deciding that there’s a trend for me, choosing entries and exit is from left chart .. I need to be looking at the *same* trend wave (but zoomed) and not other wavelets inside it.

1. multiply trend study settings on left by the zoom factor.. they become 48 & 12 .. see in the screenclip how the trend signal is at the exact location between the 2 charts, but magnified on the left
2. volume: I want to see very short term moves .. every bar of volume is 4 bars on the right.. if I take half the settings that’s 8 times magnification.. I will set volume EMA length to 6
3. tactical momentum settings: this is a preference.. you won’t benefit from multiplying by zoom factor as we did with the upper trend study. I would rather do like volume and see a magnifies view, to help me choose the entries and exit.. 4x or 8x settings vs the right chart.. so either keep it as 12, 3 (that’s a 4x) or half that for 8x..


i'll apply the same rule for other studies i add on both charts.. I wouldn’t now put a study on any of them unless I question it “what are your settings and why? what are you showing me? how do you relate to your other sister?”



I marked some areas on the screenshot so you can see how this “zoom factor” plays .. the trend (Trader_Ribbon) study between the 2 charts is exactly the same, signals fire up at the exact same time.. but you can see the momentum moves from different zoom lenses, see how a small momentum move on the right side looks in 4x magnified view on the left ..

love my new glasses ... hope you do!
Cheers,
K

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  #23 (permalink)
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forgot the trading piece.. yes i was in that down move on INTC with some long PUTS .. and exited when it went flat on me ....

RedK

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  #24 (permalink)
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RedK,

I want to tell you nicely done and very well explained. I like your highlighting it makes it really easy to see what you are explaining. Keep it up I am using yor stuff and it really works.

Thanks

Hguru

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  #25 (permalink)
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have an issue with my TDAm account and can't trade for a while.. paperwork needs to be done to re-activate the account.. so i sold the stocks i held and all in cash .. my studies show they may move down which they started doing later in the week. no regrets.. good time to study my statement and go thru my past quarter trades and scrutinize them to find some learning.

also working further on simplifying my setup .. I decided I will focus my setup only on Trend + Momentum + studies to show me common Price Levels .. volume as well but as a supportive indicator. I need nothing else. this is not simple, when you start thinking about the insight these (Trend & Momentum) can deliver when you combine different timeframes (not talking about 2 charts, but talking about watching a single plot of 2 stochastic – like in K_Trender, or 3 MA’s, or 2 RSI of different lookbacks... they tell a lot). that filters out many other concepts that at the end are dependent on these areas ..

speaking of momentum & price levels, I just posted K_Trender_TopChart_v2 ...
https://futures.io/download/vip_elite_circle/1272-download.html?view



this is like a price chart companion/alternative to K_Trender (actually a simplified version still based on 2 stochastic momentums of different lengths), and it also plots a price channel of different choices (Keltner, BB, Elder’s, and my favorite ... Highest/Lowest .. and more) .. we include a dual signal system, the channel color for the main length momentum and an up/down arrow for the fast length momentum. thanks to my friend HGuru for helping me complete this work.. you can read a better description in above link.

the code for coloring that channel was so tricky for my scripting skills, but happy I got thru it.. this study is a main part of my setup so hope fellow traders may find value in it..

hope to get back to trading soon,
best,
RedK

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but happy i sold QCOM last week .. it started the move down as my studies told me.. no regrets.

also good time to "close my quarter" - it's end of Spetember, so i will do the quarterly P/L & trade analysis and capture learning for the next quarters. trying to stay consistent with this.

i know i'm around 3 to 4% up vs last q - my ambitious target is a 10% - and i'm also curious to see what type of trades were more profitable than others, and where i went completely wrong and impulsive and need better control.

stay profitable all,
RedK

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On Wednesday, October 10th @ 4:30 PM Eastern US, Carley Garner will be presenting a webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT) which covers Options Trading (specifically Futures, but it will be a broad overview). I've asked Carley to put together a multi-part webinar, so this is Part 1 and will just be "Basics - 101".

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it's official that i'm now no longer with TDAm, and can't use my ToS anymore.. (sad! feels like losing a close friend). this is due to the new business rule to disconnect clients in certain locations.

i'm also sad and extremely upset, no, i'm furious, about how TDAm handled the situation. they first confirmed that i can update my profile since i'm only in this location on temporary (job post) basis, to my "permanent" country of residence and then they can re-review and enable the account, did that, they came back and said need certain documents, did that, they came back and said more documents, did that, then finally they receive everything and say no .. and that was a painful/rude/strange...etc conversation .. to me it was more funny that upsetting, since i've been in customer service-related jobs for all my entire career. just can't beleive it.. there's no small joint that treats clients, even ex-clients, this way - let alone large corporates..
let's spare the details..and move on.

my account is now disconnected. no notice, no chance to back up my studies, statements, activities, watchlists, scans, ..etc .. if i didn't have recent backups, i would have been completely locked out of 18 months of day & night work .. even with the backup, i still have to do a lot of work to recover that state i was at, well - life is full of surprises, some good, some disappointing ...

set back, no issues. moved my account to my other broker and will take a break form trading to sort things out. find the next setup of broker/tool to get myself back in "technical" trading (my other broker doesn't provide that), and continue the learning journey. this won't stop here.

be back soon, green lines to all..
RedK

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  #29 (permalink)
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RedK,

That is terrible news and no one should be treated like that ever. I ran a business for 25 years and I can tell you if we treated people like that we would have been out of business. I guess they have forgotten what it is like to be a customer. There should have been a better way for TD to handle the situation.

If there is anything I can do to help you with the studies either to complete them or anything please let me know. I will do the best I can to help you.

Hguru

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Dang, that stinks RedK. I used to think TOS was worldwide. I guess this is one major flaw of the TDA merger when so much had improved with the TOS platform since. I wonder if this action was motivated by some policy to keep U.S. retail trading contained within the borders like they did with the 1:50 leverage limitations for forex. Sorry you were cut off like that with no warning beforehand, I agree is awful customer service.

Hope you get all your fine thinkscripts back. Thinking about Ninja?

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  #31 (permalink)
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did my quarter analysis.. it's very interesting.. that's only the 3rd quarter i do this, and i'm putting time in the spreadsheet so it's easier in future.. just plug in the transacation report and it does most of the work for me.. need to manually edit few cells, but overall, the work is minimized.

(sorry for not showing the $ totals.. but the learning is mostly in the split %)

here's what's curious, in the previous Q, i had a big unrealized loss from QCOM, which i carried forward to this Q - it was going down and i continued to use long puts to improve my BE. the realized profit on options was a 4 figure. that made me happy.

this q, it's the other way around.. good realized profit on my sale of QCOM, and a modest 3 figure profit from option trades. i wasn't focused, for one. i was putting time more in improving and simplifying my setup (that investment should pay back later) and i also deviated from my rules by doing some weeklies. also it was a short Q since i stopped trading mid-sept.



lessons learnt (again): focus on what works (noticed i do better long PUTS than CALLS .. interesting!), keep it simple and stick to basics when it comes to indicators (i'm down to only 1 momentum + trend indicator now + price levels. hope can find a way to program that with my next broker), trade stocks on breakouts, there's good money in there too (why not!) and on good signals. avoid the weeklies and intraday (not for me) ..

can't wait to be back. so much to do, so much to learn.
RedK

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  #32 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
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My account is now fully transfered .. but i'm not trading.. still haven't found my next reliable platform, and spending sometime testing some of the possible solutions to port my setups to..

here's what i was working on before leaving ToS...



if i don't find something that allows me to use these setups i developed during the past few months, i guess i'll just go back to simple charting, MA crossing and just trade stocks on that .. so far, i haven't got the feeling that "I'm home" that i had when i was using ToS .. so funny !

the search continues,
RedK

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  #33 (permalink)
Dubai, UAE
 
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summary of my 1.5 year short experience with TDAm & ToS posted under another thread.. no hard feelings

https://futures.io/thinkorswim-programming/8854-thinkscripts-7.html#post271509

recovering from a trader's block.. now i look at different charts and indicators than my usual ones, but "can't see trades" .. i know it's a temporary thing. earnings season coming fast, things should start to shake & move, better get back in shape quickly,

RedK

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  #34 (permalink)
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OK.. decided i can't stay on the side lines any longer.. so made 2 simple trades this week, trading with no indicators.. just looking at some price charts and price levels.. both positions currently open

- long INTC after earnings price action.. i love the stock, beleive it has potential, and love the dividends .. it seems stabilizing and ready to move back up.. just a gut feeling.. plan to hold for few months and have a mental stop loss, will do covered calls if it stagnates. too early to evaluate the overall trade.

- AAPL volatility play with OTM cash-secured Put .. 1 contract of the expiring weekly and only for over-night. earnings "shock" went well, and I hope to close on profit. was ready for the other scenario (take the stock) at my BE price below $590 and that was my case to go for the trade..

happy to be back in action,
RedK

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  #35 (permalink)
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my AAPL Put play went well.. placed order to buy back the PUT an hour before market open - since yesterday earnings, i kept watching the AH/pre-market price move in reaction to earnings to try to understand which scenario will unfold (buy back on taregt or if i will take the stock). target got hit in first 30m from market open, and order executed .. bought back the PUT for $0.4 ..

happy it went in that direction.. AAPL seems to find resistance at $610 .. and move down is possible before a recover .. the results of the Q are positive, but seems the market spirits will so their magic first before a direction is decided.. so will wait and see before going in again (taregting a long CALL this time)

not sure what's the right way to calc return on a cash-secured PUT.. won't make sense to base it on the buy back value vs original sell value - that would give like 95%.. but the risk - and real capital invested is the money you have to tie to secure the trade, which is a lot different amount.. if someone can share the right way?

week 1 after come back to trading is encouraging. want to look at this as a new phase and try to keep my trades clean.. no impulsives, no rush, well-planned.. new start.. will see how this goes.

RedK

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  #36 (permalink)
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short week, and i'm closing early anyways.. no trading for me tomorrow ..

closed INTC position for 3% gain .. original plan was to hold them thru the dividends. but one of my rules is also to take profit early when you're happy with it.. so i did it with a twist .. i set a tight stop to book 3% gain from buy price, which got executed today @22.25, then sold Nov 22 PUTs (cash-secured). case for the trade is, either i get assigned and get in again with INTC, or it continues its move up and i keep most of the premium in maybe less than 15 days, then i can open another trade to follow the move if it continues.

sat thru a webinar by Price Headley - he explained a method/setup using Wm's %R , and referred the audience to his 5-hr online course ($100), in which he also combines that with his Acceleration Bands .. the Wm's %R set up is interesting & easy enough .. new learning.

i feel coming back slowly .. but happy.. less trades more focus while i rebuild my trading desk and tools.. no rush .. fewer & better is not a bad strategy.

to next week,
K

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  #37 (permalink)
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I am trading options and have run in into similar issues as you. Weekly options and intraday trading is not for me. Sorry for taking comfort that others struggle with me.

Keep posting and good luck trading.

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  #38 (permalink)
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tpurchal View Post
I am trading options and have run in into similar issues as you. Weekly options and intraday trading is not for me. Sorry for taking comfort that others struggle with me.

Keep posting and good luck trading.

absolutely no issues .. we're here to learn and take comfort from each other's experiences .. .. the important part is to keep improving, and not let setbacks dampen the energy, effort and learning..

trades for the week:
INTC cash-sec PUTs: obviously won't go up .. and i now expect to be "assigned" and take the stock at around 3 to 3.5% lower price than market (from my BE).. that was the 2nd scenario, and in that case, i'll hold it for few months and sell some Covered calls against it .. and i'm fine with that and was prepared for it.

NVDA: another earnings-play/IV around NVDA with cash-sec Nov 12.5 PUTs overnight..
that was a close call.. NVDA's earnings were OK but market responded negatively to the weak outlook, and then they got some analyst downgrads today.. the trade managed to squeeze around $350 .. i attached a chart showing where i opened and closed the trade.. and although with such a trade, you want to open the trade at a price low (and close at the highest after earnings), i wasn't watching the action all day, and took the first point i thought will be a good day's low .. turns out the rest of the day was full of action.. but today post earnings, i sat patiently (on fire) since the open watching where the price is going. patience paid back around $140 (price moved up then down then up), and i'm happy the indicators i was looking at were telling that last move up is reversing and big wave down starting (as the analyst downgrade news came) and i managed to get out quick.. avoiding a nose dive that would make the PUTs well ITM .. feels as if i steered a car on a slippery road, and glad i managed to avoid a loss (pheww!)...
STO @ $0.37 (stock @12.82), BTC @ $0.20 (stock @12.74) .. though i closed with stock at a lower price than open, the trade still benefits from the shrinking IV impact .. my expectations was the stock would climb to $13+ on positive earnings with couple percentage points - the PUT would be almost worthless then.. but .. it hardly hit 12.9


QCOM: wanted to do the earnings play, but wasn't sure enough .. kept looking at it on the earning's day .. then the day after .. turned out i missed a great trade. no regrets. more will come. will keep an eye on it though.


so got some action going.. things worming up again..
K

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  #39 (permalink)
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goot time to journal new technical learnings for me during past few weeks ..

#1. William's %R (from William %R - ChartSchool - StockCharts.com

Developed by Larry Williams, Williams %R is a momentum indicator that is the inverse of the Fast Stochastic Oscillator. Also referred to as %R, Williams %R reflects the level of the close relative to the highest high for the look-back period. In contrast, the Stochastic Oscillator reflects the level of the close relative to the lowest low. %R corrects for the inversion by multiplying the raw value by -100. As a result, the Fast Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R produce the exact same lines, only the scaling is different. Williams %R oscillates from 0 to -100. Readings from 0 to -20 are considered overbought. Readings from -80 to -100 are considered oversold. Unsurprisingly, signals derived from the Stochastic Oscillator are also applicable to Williams %R.

in reality, Wm's %R reflects where the closing price is within a Donchain Channel (Highest high/lowest low for an N period).

in Headley's webinar, he uses a 30-period Wm's %R to identify setups for a confirmed trend (up or down) which i found very interesting. once the %R hits the oversold/overbought levels and stays there, that means a trend move in that direction starts. we can also use the retracement to these levels (usually -20 & -80) for points of entry or add-to-position ..

so i played with the concept a little further after sitting throu Headley's webinar, as i really like to use Donchain channels. so here's what i would do to Wm's R%:
  1. Smooth it a little bit to make it easier to follow, while not causing signal lag. best was to use a WMA(3) of the closing ... mathematically the same as a WMA Smoothing of 3 for the final Wm's %R
  2. the chart in my previous post shows how i did this on TC2000. just add the smoothing and hide the original %R line [quick note, in the above chart, the %R lower study is not in sync with the Donchian channel on the price plot as they have different look-backs, 5 for the Donchain, 14 for the %R - hope this won't confuse anyone]
  3. change the scaling to a more readable scale: i would change the 0 to -100 to 100 to -100. then slightly tweak the overbough/oversold levels to -25/-75 (they become 50 & -50 on the new scale)
  4. show the zero line (reversal). i'm surprised how many of the old indicators ignore the significance of a zero line.. for exmaple, in this case, the zero line (-50% in original Willima's %R) is when the closing price jumps from one half of the Donchain channel to the other, indicating a change in overall price action reversing to ther other side (from bears to bulls and vice versa)
  5. add signal with the logic to buy at the crossing of the 0 line upward, hold as we hit the 50% level into the overbought zone, then only sell on a crossing of the 50% line going down (Headley recommends entry only when the %R crosses into overbough/oversold zones and confirms with a retracement to the OB/OS level, then goes back in the zone)
  6. Headley considers the area between -20 and -80 as "no man's land" .. so that's chop or indecision.. i would still honor that .. with the slight change of taking the crossing of the zero line (the -50) as a sign of a trend starting.. so an early start, but the same exit as Headley's .. i would also use a 15-period vs Headley's 30 .. but then that really to be tweaked based on U/L and aggregation...

once i get my hands on a scriptable platform, i would put these thoughts in an indicator.. .. but thought to share here if others would like to "leverage" (yes, please do steal these thoughts )

this strategy seems to work (google BigTrends or Price Headley).. what i also liked is that Headley used this system (which then also incorporates his Acceleration Bands - but i didn't like them much), to trade *Options* .. and that's where i want to be. in all cases, i liked the concept as a good Momentum indicator and will add from now on to my core set..

#2. Moving Averages (again) ..
I'm looking at better formulas for MA's .. i want something that tracks average price movement with less lag, based on sound mathematical basis (and not voodoo ratios that come from nowhere). in above chart, i use simple MA's of close & open and they work very nicely. i lost trust in EMA, started using WMA exclusively, and thinking now of ways to improve the "weighting" of the WMA.. but that's a topic for another day. an interesting thought, can we use Fib levels in the weighting of an MA? (WIP)

Am I lost in technical analysis?
no.. i'm still focused on a core set of "concepts" to track & represent trend (basically based on MA's - most trusted are SMA and WMA - many concepts are generated from this and you can represnt these in tons of ways), and Momentum (price position within a price channel - either a Donchian or MA of hi/lo), Bull/Bear action and who has control (like DMI), and price levels (Donchain is my favorite) and S/R .. all my work and trading will evolve around a setup that shows these studies (or a subset of them)
i still use these but much less often: Keltner, BB, Stochastic & SMI, Regression, Fibs, vol profile, RSI, MACD ... as more or less, they are correlated with my core set.. but can sometimes provide a different perspective or help predict a key level (like Fib) - so basically i'm on the same track since i started that journey


does that make sense? learning continues....
K

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  #40 (permalink)
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sat thru this today .. found it while i was researching ADX/DMI

Sharing here for later reference and for others interested in ADX/DMI .. i have couple of thoughts around ADX/DMI and will be working soon on an update from the previous version i posted here on the Elite section (as soon as i get a chance). the concept is amazing, but i beleive the indicator can give more insight - by changing the way it's visualized - it's very restricted the way it currently is .. i started on that track with K_DMI, and will take it frutehr..

streaming webinar by Dr. Charles Schaap

Schaap's ADXcellence slides from CBoT seminar

RedK

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  #41 (permalink)
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Good luck with the options trading!

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  #42 (permalink)
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and been away from my journal for a long time.
still holding my INTC .. and it keeps disappointing (for now) .. but i decided i'll sit in the fire until after the holiday season..

only new position opened is some AAPL Jan ITM calls .. i kept missing the big obvious moves (like when AAPL went below 520, and then up 7% in one day).. but this time decided it's better late than sorry. the indicators look good. it may ease slightly down but will eventually move up..

watching the others and holding the monkey close .. he wants to hit the trigger but i've decided i will only move on good signals, no less. so staying on the side until something shows up..

stopped working on indicators.. have enough custom built, time to use them in trade. i do a lot of paper trading and may post some as i test a new concept i call Zero-Gain level (similar to pivot points) .. the concept is, this is the price level of latest "balance" between bears & bulls. it helps set targets or reversal levels.. and it looks interesting .. if you use something like DMI, you can calculate this level as the price corresponding to the intersection of +DI with -DI.. give it a shot. the price comes back to revisit if it's around the same area.

that's all for now ..

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  #43 (permalink)
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Redk,

Good To see you around again RedK...What platform have you settled on now to trade with or write studies for? Apple looks good I agree back to $700. Intel I hope this is the bottom.

Good Luck

Hguru

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  #44 (permalink)
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Hguru View Post
Redk,

Good To see you around again RedK...What platform have you settled on now to trade with or write studies for? Apple looks good I agree back to $700. Intel I hope this is the bottom.

Good Luck

Hguru

thanks @Hguru. I currently trade with OX where i have moved my account. I trust OX and had an account with them for almost 2 years now with 0 issues. But until i find a good charting & analysis platform, i refer to a fallback setup on a demo TC2000 desktop where i have my watchlist and i setup the studies that show me what i need (Trend, Momentum and Price Levels).. here's how it looks like, after i did some small refinements recently (adjusted scaling of the stduies, showing %'s.. etc)




There's so many limitations and i can't put my custom studies, but what i like about it, is that i can start at the top of the watchlist, hit spacebar to move quickly thru all the watchlist, for an hourly + daily view of the charts and price action. Also it's always valuable to see the same chart on a different platform.. gives like a fresh eye, a chance to note things you may not see in the charting platform you look at all the time..

so it's a good tool to always have on the side, even when you have a more sophisticated platform.

looking forward to another exciting week ahead. Green Lines to all,
RedK

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  #45 (permalink)
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market spirits are trading against me.. that must be the case. they learnt of the positions i have and started moving things in the other directions .. they must have a spy here on the forum telling them what new positions i took ...

seriously now, i can't seem to explain what's hapenning to the stocks i'm watching, let alone my positions.. NFLX, STX, WDC, AAPL, INTC.. big ups then big downs, in big %'s .. c'mon guys, make up your minds...! and the indicators are just all over the place.. going crazy and fuming.

i got this funny feeling to avoid the computer screen. AAPL position is in dark red and i don't want to see the loss.. it's painful. then i decided to get in the fight, ok, show me the loss, i still have good time on my AAPL calls, and i will not close the position at the largest loss (done that before) .. i'll just sit and protect it. Stocks are better, as they are unrecognized loss, and i can hold them for a lot longer waiting patiently for a rebound. but seriously, the market proves itself again. It's like the sea, you can be the best skipper, and it's still YOUR MASTER (and it shouts that to you every now and then, do you give your respects)

not opening new positions until things stabilize. market is too turbelent. i hope everyone stays safe. keep your backup plans handy, and if you decide to sit in the fire, stay cool. that's where i am now,

cheers,
RedK

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  #46 (permalink)
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just a quick note to say i'm still around, and still scripting on ToS whenever i can get my hands on it ...

changing my trading style and moving to more focus on stocks vs options.. i need to become a better stock trader before diving more in the world of options (even basic strategies) .. so that's what i've been doing for the past few weeks.. my set up is getting more and more simplified.. and still building & improving my own studies.. there's so much that can be done in that area, to better see and follow the price action - and i'm finding out i also have some passion for "scripting" and trying out different trading methods and related analysis.. so while I need to satisfy my passion and curiosity in that area, i need more focus on trade & position management - and that's where i want to spend more time as i move more to trading whole stocks..

so i will close this journal here.. this part of the journey is over for me .. i'm starting a new phase.. will possibly start another journal in the forum focusing on technical trading methods that i researched/liked - as a journal for myself and a repository for others who are interested in that area and would like to share thoughts and ideas.
otherwise, i'll be around,
stay profitable all,
RedK

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  #47 (permalink)
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Thanks RedK. I just discovered Big Mike's in the past couple of weeks. I stumbled upon this journal and absolutely loved it!
Nice analysis and walk through of your trading. Hope you can get back to TOS and use your abilities.
You are amazing at your thinkscript capabilities.
Keep up the good work and hope you see bright green on your screens.

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