I have found that there are not so good forums talking to real CL trading, i just came here and see that there is a lot of trader dedicated to Crude, and i would like to share what i´ve learned and continue learning from all of you, basically i use an intraday strategy my trades go for 10-40 ticks, average 20 ticks, i use Market Profile, ACD, stochastics, price patterns, i will describe one of my strategies the one that is the most profitable, and maybe some could test it, and share with us your own experience. I use NinjaTrader 7, with Global Futures and AMP clearing, i used to trade using Penson Futures (now knight futures).
What you need:
1. 10 range Chart, plot EMA 13 and 150
2. Stochastics 3,9,3
only this for now.
STRATEGY:
1. IDENTIFY
a. Plot the PLOD (Previous Low of Day) level
b. Plot the PHOD (Previous High of Day) level
c. Plot the most important swing lows/highs
This give and idea of where the market would trade (range) and if buyers/sellers fail on this levels, (see attached image)
d. Most Important channels (Asia & Europe Session)
and channel developing in the US Session (if there is any channel) if not look for range area.
2. FILTER TRADES
My approach is combine zones and levels with the stochastic levels, we know that 20 is oversold and 80 is overbought, COMBINING this with PLOD, PHOD, Swings we can filter our trades and take a better decision at the moment to pull the trigger,
When we trade in channel we want to sell high channel level and buy low channel level
But filtering the trade means that you will ONLY trade in the direction of the channel (UP or Down)
and you double filter is the stochastic level support the trade, how? lets say the price is in the upper level of the channel and the stochastic is at 80 and crossing it down, this would be a filtered trade and a high percentage winning trade, you have applied double filter, OR you could use THE EMA´s, "NORMALLY" when price trades under the 150 EMA you ONLY want to sell retracements, as indicated in the image 3, if you combine this three you are trading as a professional!. taking decisions based on price structure and behaviour.
We will keep adding on to this idea and if you could please share your comments and enhance it!!:..
Best Regards.
JDNeeman.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on futures io?
Only one trade today in the Crude due to some personal problem, but at the end the important thing is that the strategy is working and we made an analysis based decisions,
I saw (when i arrived my desk) that the price was exactly at the Value Area High from Yesterday at the top of the channel, and stochastic at the 100 level, since the price was right at a major level, and buyers were unable to break it, a reversal was imminent, we decided to sell at those highs @ 83.78 with a stop loss of 20 ticks and profit of 20 ticks,
Today we had the Crude Oil inventories
the news came with this numbers:
Wednesday, June 20, 2012 10:30:06 *(US) DOE CRUDE: +2.86M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +940K V +1ME; DISTILLATE: +1.16M V +1.5ME; UTILIZATION: 91.9% V 91.8%E- Gasoline demand -435K at 8.69M bpd - Distillate demand -180K bpd at 3.5M bpd
Have Market Intel? TradeTheNews.com Tip Line -> Click Here
Knowing the crude market personality that likes to fade the news, we saw price surge a bit, although the news analysis said: SELL, because: Higher inventories and NO demand= oversupply! price falls, product cheaper!.
we waited to see the stochastic reach the 90 level in the 10 range chart, we saw exhaustion and sellers on the tape, so we took the trade, shorting the crude, with a target of 31 ticks.
very good trade, we could have profited a bit more but, we are happy with what we have.
looking to buy now..since the market always retrace at the end of the session.
Hello, Today we had an spectacular day for trading, opportunities in the market at least two of them for a big profit, unfortunately i just took two trades for a total of 9 ticks, $90, and since is late in NY, heading to the close and will just let it go, i came late at my office today and could not take the first two trades, and been in a hurry to meetings i cannot focus well on trading, but here i leave my analysis hope it helps someone.
The VAL and VAH is the range where the 70% of the action happened in the previous day,
The POC is the Price at which the most TPO´s (time sale opportunities) occur in the Market Profile chart
during the previous day. The prices that saw the most activity. Visually the
longest horizontal line.
when we combine the VAL, VAH, PHOD and PLOD, you have your fighting "arena" when this zones are very well defined you can make better and accurate trading decisions, you have your plan predefined, when the price reacts to one of this zones we will know exactly what to do.
when the price is close to one of this areas
what do i do?
i ask myself
1. where is the price at this level?, any double top/bottom?
2. Where is the stochastic? which level? 80?, 20?, 90? 100?
3. Price channel? where is the price respecting the channel? at the top of the channel --> Sell, at the bottom if the channel --> Buy
4. in the time and sales (T&S) window, what do you see? Sellers? buyers? in the filtered T&S what are the big boys doing? buying? selling?,
5. is there speed in the T&S or is passive...slow..
If the price is close to one of this areas and you see in the T&S window speed and buyers/sellers coming a possible break of the level could be around, to the contrary if the price in the T&S window slows down at this levels a possible reversal is around.
this questions when you get used to them are automatic and processed in fractions of seconds in your brain, this give you the ability to make better and informed decisions,
adding more to this....
If the price is below the value area zone (from VAL to VAH) we could expect a negative day, prices could fall, the plan would be sell retracements,
If the price is above the value area zone, we could expect a positive day, price should rise and the plan would be buy pullbacks.
NOTE: if the price is below/above the value area zone, at some time the price could try to reverse and try to get in back into the value area zone, then you should be looking at the 80% rule!!!.... (you can look at this, i have attached a document about it...)
I have attached an image explain the value area zone strategy and trading decisions.
I just wanted to share quickly my analysis for the day,
As of this moment the price has attempted to get back in the Value area Zone, testing once the Value area low level @ 78.74, we have an inside day since the price is above the PLOD (previous low of day), price is above the open level @78.11, at 9:00 AM EST price could test the open level then test the VAL again, at this moment we dont have US dollar correlation, will see later in the morning, we have major resistance zone near the VAH @ 80.30, market could be volatile since is friday, avoid trading after 11:30 EST.
I just wanted to share my first trade today, we decided to sell when we saw price outside channel at the top, stochastic at 80-90 level and going south, speed in the tape, we saw large sellers at this prices in the filtered Time and sales window, all was in our side. so we took the trade that took about 3 minutes to close.
