Today will be a moving market day same as yesterday, there is a block of news in about 40 minutes that probably will shake a bit the market, the non-farm employment data, will probably come higher if it does will see an spark on CL due to higher jobs means higher consumption higher crude demand, higher production higher need of this commodity, if it comes lower we could see CL price to fall some ticks,
i Just finished my trading day, ended with 63+ ticks, it was a combination of CL and ES trading, i saw a strong interest in the long prices, i mean i saw buyers in the tape in both CL and ES but the clue came in from the ES where i saw a bunch of big orders being filled in the buy side, also in the crude there was buyers in the tape, my indicators where screaming to place pending buy positions, at the end the data was the spark since the numbers came in at 170k zone.
JD that was very fast Trade as News came out, you timed it Perfect and Not a second to late.
This Trade Happened in a mere 6 seconds from 86.47 up to 87.25 for total 78 ticks.
is this also about how long you observed?
or is my data wrong?
Great Trade, Congratulations
Hello. SandP, yes, it was a very fast trade, i placed my pending order got some slipage , and it was closed in about 5 seconds, now i observed the developing of this setup for about 35 minutes, in my frist post of this day you can observe the time, when i started to follow this setup, 1-2 minutes before release i placed my pending orders in the direction a thought it would come the news and ended positive....
i was observing on tick chart the Trade duration= Super Fast
Very Good Analysis ,Strategy and Timing JD.
YES, i see you were observing the development much earlier.
Great Trade JD.
i wanted to post one last time this Chart of last couple days Action.
We are seeing Serious Downside after Topping at 87.25 today.
Have a Great Weekend Everyone, and Thank you JD for the Thread.
i have Learned a few things today
As many of you may know i have tested about 4 systems to trade the Crude and the ES, and at the end after 2 years of losing money investing in systems that do not add up in any way to my goal that is be a full time trader making and sustain my family i have a winner and i have been fine tuning it in the last two months, so i have a WINNER! and that is a system that i will call JDNeeman Cycles Divergence Trading (CDT Trading for Short) what i have done is to merge in one system (is not new, surely someone else have done this before) the divergence, cycles and Round Numbers trading, why this three?? when you combine this three you have an incomparable edge in the market, when we understand that the market moves in cycles, waves, this cycles create divergences between price and the real intention of the market and you combine this with Round numbers that become levels that the market knows that has to respect or break, you can position yourself accordingly and suck tons of ticks from the market, i arrive to this after some time to real test some strategies that alone do not bring a long time success, i wanted to do this (although i did SIM trading) to know the real emotions that will happen to me, when i play with real money, and now i know exactly how to behave when i see signs of stress in my mind, i learned to be patient, to wait, to understand that the market moves in cycles, maybe i left a wave go but the cycle needs to be closed therefore there will be another chance to get in the wave and take it...
CDT Trading (Cycles Divergence Trading)
Starting today (I know is saturday ) i will ONLY use this strategy for my futures day trading, i will become and expert on it, and i will make my fortune using it.. (i hope this help others to achieve their financial goals too)
How does this CDT thing looks like??
Cycles
We all know the market as a living creature has cycles, it obeys the physical laws, "everything that goes up needs to come back down", "a valley needs its peaks", "UP and DOWN" "gravity law", "attraction law"
of course there is a complete course of cycle trading, and is not my intention to talk about it in deep, only to mention that cycles are the very basic, natural and core of market behaviour. when we use this and understand in which cycle we are at, looking at the greater time frame down to the short time frame you can use this to know where is going to close the cycle and which waves you can surf and which not.
Divergences
Well one of the most powerful sources of information and clues on where the market is headed comes from the correct usage of Divergences, this occur between the price and usually and indicator that control or chases the price when there is a difference between the price and your chosen indicator being this difference high, %, etc, a divergence is trigger.
Types of divergence.
i will resume this with an image.
Here is an actual image of a divergence.
Round Numbers
Big Round Numbers, Round Numbers, we all have heard of this, let me tell you that this single data have made me a lot of ticks, knowing where the market could possibly turn, break, slow, is just mind blowing.
we have the big Round Numbers: 00, 20, 50, 80
and the Mid Numbers: 10, 35, 65, 95
The combination of this three and a mechanical process will let me retire soon and live long and prosper
this combination gives an insight on how the market behaves. in PART 2 i will let clear my mechanical process i have came with and some tips.
Hope this helps.
(well it helps me) that is the most important thing!!.
I Love it, i Agree with your Analysis Method 100%.
Great Examples of your Method!
I am also into this type Method.
i like your style as a Trader JD!
You will Achieve Your Goal!
TRADE SETUP MECHANICS
1. DRAWING ROUND NUMBERS
Manually place horizontal lines for Round Numbers.
(00, 20, 50, 80) don’t forget the mid numbers (10, 35, 65, 95, you can draw this levels with a different color, the market also respect this numbers) this will give us our levels to watch, you can also add Floor Pivots lines, First Touch, etc. Remember to draw new lines as prices reaches zones where there is no round number levels drawn. Once we have this levels all our attention will be focused when price reach one of this round numbers and pass to second phase.
2. SPOTING DIVERGENCE
This part is the most important in the process of this strategy, because a bar reading of a divergence can cost you money.
How we spot divergence? first we start looking at the actual price and its location and you start screening backwards, you go from the short swings to the longer or more distant, backwards, now you look for a divergence comparing with the strength indicator (MACDBBLines) same logic.
As soon a divergence is spotted we have to move fast, if there is a buying opportunity we want to place our pending order long, 5-10 ticks above the price.
Check out how this trade developed.
We knew the level 85.20 would hold, how? Exactly at this level was occurring a divergence favoring long positions. I know that you already saw an immediate divergence for a possible short trade do you see it? Lower high (Price) and Higher High (Indicator) = Short. And this one also worked perfectly.
You could do this all day long and once you manage this strategy you come to the market sure that will take your money for the day.
3. TIPS AND CONSIDERATIONS
The correct usage of the MACDBBLines indicator will give you and unprecedented edge in the market.
This tool will let you know if the market will hold any level, pivot, Fib level, etc.
How? Let`s review it:
a. If MACDBBLines is not able to cross the 0 level after a run up or down this means movement will continue with the original trend direction. And an opportunity could be developing.
Price is in a down trend it retraces to test a Round number level but it was rejected.
b. MACDBBLines indicator crosses the 0 level.
When you see this level violently broken a change in the main trend is imminent and a reverse market could be positioning.
Market wanted to test new lows but first brought the price is higher is he could for later let the price fall taking a good amount of stops in the process and this traders been forced to close out their position put some extra gasoline to the fall it was a fall of about 160 ticks.
What about Stops and Targets?
Well I normally would say you are the trader you manage your trade, but I`ll let you know how I do it, I use a 15 – 20 tick stop loss protection, and my targets usually are round numbers depending on how strong I see the market. If I just wanted to close out my day faster I close my trades with 20-30 ticks.
Hope this helps.
JDNeeman-
if someone wants the PDF is also available for download.
I'm fairly new to CL trading and want to thank you for taking the time to review your info with everyone. I think I could get a much better understanding of your method if you could/would share the details on the various indicators (like in screen 93949) and how to set all of them up.
I have been really busy this past week that i wasn't able to trade as i normally do, today i took a chance to make a trade, i just made 10 ticks, i will wait for market close to see if the is other opportunity to trade, today is Veterans day, and that makes the market slow since there is bank holiday, anyway i´m back...this week looks to be a really moving week, rolling contract, market volatility, mid month, etc, look at the image were we at in the daily chart.-
Hello, i just closed my second trade of the day, i have targeted 10 ticks today due to market slowdown...but the market has been good with us today, i closed another trade for 10 ticks making the overall day profit 20 ticks so far.
i can see an interest to move the price at the end of the session day.
We have a slow market today, but warming up... i took my first trade for 10Ticks profit, i saw a medium size divergence in the 10 Range chart. and made my entry on the 3 Range chart for 10 ticks...i will look to reentry the market as soon the big player get into it, to move the price down....
Well, after some days out, i´m back to trading, i couldn't ´t write before, but here are my trades for the day, i have closed it with 27+ ticks, this days have been crazy, crude is forming a bottom, prices could surge higher soon..
This is my implementation of a Universal Renko bar type. It allows the user to choose when the bar closes in the direction of the previous bar (Trend), and when it closes in the direction against the previous bar (Reversal).
This allows you to tailor …
The following 2 users say Thank You to trendisyourfriend for this post:
Just closed this trade for a 20 tick trip...
I saw weakness in this zone, a double top, Momentum was favoring the short side. MACDBB Line crossed the zero line downwards price was about to cross a round number (.50) 87.50, price was near the 200 WMA line and was about to be tested...therefore i place a pending order to the short side.
That is correct Stochastics 3,8,3 it resemble the price movement quite good, you could use TDI also to check on price direction as well as MACDBB lines.
i just want to share with you my daily chart for the CL, i see a very good opportunity developing hope we all be able to capitalize on this coming move in the CL.
I just closed a trade for 10+ ticks, the market is quite slow, and low volume 49k contracts, although the market is giving some good opportunities, it has broken 88.00 out of the price wedge (see previous post), the opportunity is developing but is on it´s track to higher prices...
A possible test of 88.00 could come and if supported we are heading higher in the couple of days left for November.
if price breaks down 88.00 with conviction we will have to wait the market to accumulate enough to make it´s move higher, in the meantime you could trade short trips....
Well let´s start the last week of November, trading the open, I see prices paying around 88.00 this means the open will bring some action, either way, (I think will be an up move), i see double top in the zone 88.10,
12+ ticks so far in CL trading, i´m waiting for Consumer Confidence data to trade, at 10:00 EST, Interesting analysis by Joseph Souhlakis,
January Nymex crude oil futures have been trading within last Tuesday's 11/20/12, 86,17 to 88.79 range for the past four days. Additionally, Mondays "inside day" (Mondays range is within Fridays range) is another form of balance. An "inside day" within a tight five day balance is " balance within balance."
When a volatile market such as crude oil is contained within such a tight balance for an extended period of time, a significant move usually follows the breakout from that balance.
FIRST STEP
The first step is to see which way the market breaks from the "inside day." If the market breaks from Monday's inside day to the upside day, the likely scenario is that it tests lasts Tuesdays 88.79 high. If the market breaks from the inside day to the downside, the likely scenario is that it tests Tuesdays 86.17 low.
SECOND STEP
The second step is to gain so-called "acceptance" outside last Tuesdays 86.17 to 88.79 range
KEY LEVELS
The market may remain within last Tuesdays range for the next several days, but it is beat to be preparred fro when the break from balance happens. If the market gains acceptance above last Tuesdays 88.79 high, it may test the 89.80 reference.
If the market gains acceptance below last Tuesdays 86.17 low, it may test the 85.10 reference
well, i just finished my trading day, ending with +37 ticks,
not bad, made some mistakes, that is why you have to be focused when trading, we capitalize trading the "V" Shape formation and this let us bring back some ticks, ending good for the day..
This "V" Formation occurs on CL very often after a strong move like today´s move,
I have found that there are not so good forums talking to real CL trading, i just came here and see that there is a lot of trader dedicated to Crude, and i would like to share what ive learned and continue learning from all of you, basically …
Market today seems very interesting!!!, i made a test trade for 10 ticks, and let me tell you it was scary!!!.... i´m waiting for Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 AM it´s expected to come at 0.5M quite a low number so anything can happen today!!!, market has been trading lower all night session in fears that inventories come higher and made the barrel fall in price, but this is a hard game, will see what it brings.
Well, i just finished my trading day with +32 ticks, i think i could make one more trade before market close, or any high percentage retrace. The number came negative, -0.3M, price went higher, but will see if it´s able to sustain the up move...
Market went to November 27th highs and the retrace it self, we got in at 88.51 short. market has payed well, it could made another test 88.70 if broken could go higher by another 100 ticks, if rejected could test down 87.27..
Well today was a good day, i just closed my trading day, with a 50+ ticks, at 9:53 i saw price going below the 72 EMA line, showing weakness, i placed two opposite pending orders, one was triggered short, for a 40 tick trade.
i have been checking on a pattern using the MACBBLines Zero line and price, i place opposite pending orders when i see indicator approach the zero line and check where the price is at the moment if close to a round number etc. then i let the trade be triggered exactly like today.
Market was poised due to the negative number of ISM Manufacturing PMI, and this was our advantage,.
SInce the CAD is related to the CL, i trade the news from the Overnight interest rate for the CAD, it was a good trade..16+ ticks so far...now let´s dedicate ourselves to the Crude.
Well i just finished my trading day, ending with 50+ ticks of profit.
Not bad, crude oil inventories made the market act as normally does, "fade the news" number came negative price went high in the first minutes to fall later hard...
Well today seems be to interesting day, volume a bit low, but price moving upside,... i have identified to levels that i´m watching to have my trading plan running, although i did make a trade for 13 ticks +, i´m expecting signals on market open.
HI JD, thanks for your insightful thread, it is clarifying lot of things and helping the puzzle organize..
Would you please elaborate a little on the thunder scalping method ?
Well, i can say that this year has been goo and i hope 2013 be great!, regarding to trading, i have my plans running and i expect to be full time trading in around one year, i really hope to achieve this but in the mean time i will keep trading by my rules and my strategy..
Well, since i´m not trading anymore, i closed my trading for the month so i have some time to prepare my self for next year of trading, i decided to explore the use of WoodiesCCI strategy and of course the indicator, i have been trading this year mostly using breakout patterns in combination with Round Numbers and also retracement and pullbacks also in combination with Round Numbers, but i needed more accuracy for my trading, some time ago i went to have some contact with this WoodiesCCI indicator at the time i didn't have the time to really focus and study it, but now i do and is quite easy to use let me tell you it requires a huge amount of DISCIPLINE!!! but it is something i also need for this coming year, so i wanted to share my experience and let me tell you that i was looking for accuracy and I FIND IT!!!,
The indicator is composed of 3 indicators,
1. The CCI,
2. THe Sidewinder Indicator
3. The ChopZone Indicator
This three work almost every pattern around the ZERO LINE.
i just use one strategy called "ZLR: ZERO LINE REJECT" and i have combined this with my regular trading strategy, that uses Round Numbers, Divergence and Momentum, so i´m trying this Hybrid on paper trading, since i know my strategy quite well i´m just fine tuning it to be able to trade more accurately.
My Rules now are:
For
LONG:
Sidewinder Indicator: Green
ChopZone Indicator: Green or Cyan
CCI line retrace close to the Zero Line and be rejected Towards the initial trend (LONG)
EMA´s lines supporting up trend.
SHORT:
Sidewinder Indicator: Green
ChopZone Indicator: Red
CCI line retrace close to the Zero Line and be rejected Towards the initial trend (SHORT)
EMA´s lines supporting down trend.
JD thanks for sharing your methodology and taking the time to post in the thread. I am enjoying it, re-reading it and learning. Wish you the best for the coming year.
Chris.
The following user says Thank You to rainbowchaser for this post:
Thanks, it is good to know that helps someone at least, and yes the strategy works on EUR or any Currency futures also the BRN´s are valid also, this could be used in conjunction with other indicator such as pivots if you find confluence it is a strong indication that a trade could be at the gate, regarding the template i have attached it for you.
Plot markers at round numbers above and below the market. User may also specify a list of number levels to mark, by using the 'Numbers ending with' parameter, i.e. "00, 25, 50" will mark all prices ending with those digits
,
regarding the footprint, what will best help you is learning to read price action and reaction, the market moves in waves if you get to read this price movement you will have an edge over the market, later i will post my New Year gift about fib calculations and price action.
all i really hope you all have had a great 2012 year ending and really wish you all a great and blessed 2013 full of ticks and pips but more importantly health!!...
i will officially start my trading year tomorrow trading the news. i will be posting them as always,...
Market Trading in a tight range at this moment, i´m expecting a breakout here, possibly with the FOMC meeting, but we will see...we just need a catalyst.
Well this one went well, i used the opening range levels, from 8:00 (9:00 EST) to 8:05 (9:05 EST), to determine my first trade, price broke upper level, and retest it, so i got in around this zone.
yes i entered the trade without the confirmation on the chopzone for various reasons:
1. the CCI was not able to cross hard the -100 level,
2. The SMA´s were supporting the Long Trade,
3. The price was testing the High of my opening range normally this is rejected.
4. I had confluence with the 50% Fib level (92.62 to 93.19)
This lead me to take the trade.
Check your inbox (PM) i´ll send a good ebook for you to read,.
I just wanted to say thank you for starting this thread. You have really showcased a solid framework and range of topics for me to base my learning, and your insight and thought process have provided many guidelines that I hope to put to good use this year. I look forward to following your progress and I hope 2013 treats you really well. Thanks so much!
-Rob
The following 2 users say Thank You to rwh03001 for this post:
i thanq u for ur strategy , but in ur strategy y r u using 150 ema . generally every one goes with 200 day sma . inorder to channels can we go for linear regresions channle
I wanted to share a weekly chart pointing some levels and also what i see for this morning, we have today the Crude Oil Inventories release. i will be trading this news, let´s see what the market brings.
Well, i have been very very busy, but i managed to trade a bit today....
i just closed my trading day, i used the 5 minute opening range, and this went perfect!.
i´m using an indicator that i downloaded here in futures.io (formerly BMT) by the name of HILO timerange, you can download it here,
Delete that cs file and load this zip file version.
RJay
This is the most effective technique i´ve come across some say the first 30 minutes are the most representative...well it all depends and what type of trader you are, in my case i attack the market so i came come in and out in no more than 1 hour, that makes me and my chart (233 ticks) use the 5 minute opening range, it works like a charm on CL!!.
testing this two levels high and low of the first 5 minute after the market open, is the best strategy you could use if you combine this tests with MA´s and Stochastic, momentum etc.. you can come to a level that the pros have and is a word short: EDGE, when you have the market edge and high % or probability of success your are in the right path..
I think this will be an interesting week, The market has started to move on a Sunday that is not so common, not at this level, but it has been pushed by the news of the 500 mile seaway line running from Cushing Oklahoma to freeport Texas, it has resumed the operations, well let´s see what it brings, i wanted to share my weekly chart.
The price is approaching the 61.8% fib retracement in the weekly and this will be on fire.
This might be a noob question, but you seem exceptionally aware of all the news and reports that effect CL. What source(s) do you use to gather all of this information?
for news releases i use primarly forexpros.com the economic calendar section, let me tell you that the data is updated within 30 seconds after release this is quite good!!! Forexfactory can take up to a minute to show the data.
Well today looks interesting, some levels have been tested 94.32 is one of them, right now market is mixed possibly a trend rotation, to the upside again, we need to stay above 93.60 to see upside moves above 94.32, let´s wait the first 5 minutes to see where this beast is headed.
Well today is Crude Oil INventories news release this will cause the market to go chop before the release, anyway this is what i see previous the news.
Well i´m closing my trading day today, i´m in observer mode now, market was very good, unfortunately i was at meetings i couldn't ´t trade the Beige Book News, i was a shaker, but anyway, tomorrow will have more opportunities,
my entries have been very accurate today using the 89 tick chart for entry decision and the use of fibonacci was supported by the swings using the swing indicator tweaking it a bit, i have placed two swing indicators in the 89 ticks chart one with a negative displacement and the other with the same displacement but positive.
+23 ticks profit for today.
Let´s see tomorrow i will trade the CL and the GC.
