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Crude Oil trading

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  #21 (permalink)
mississauga
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Think or Swim
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 3 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 19 given, 4 received

Hi JD,

Keep your trade setup coming! Seeing more and more definitely helps recognize the "pattern" better and faster!

Thanks

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  #22 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012

Good Morning to all!!


I have finished my morning prep, it looks we are going to have volatility that means very good opportunities to trade but also a higher risk, we can see that the bears have come out from Europe, China growth has slowed, EU summit ahead... an interesting day!! I see no correlation at all with US Dollar. this tells us Crude can do what ever he wants,
watch out for changing market personalities.

See attached image.


Greetings

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  #23 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012


I see sideways range trading, look for break out patterns, or fake breakouts, watch for momentum, and big buyers/sellers at high% levels.

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  #24 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012

I took a trade short a high of the range, but accidentally closed it!!...for 3 Tick profit.. and in front my eyes the price went down my target... 20 ticks lower...but...anyway.... after that i took my first loss for the week (and i hope be the only one) it was a mistake i didn't saw price under heavy Big Money Line (EMA 150) and close to it...the rule says "do not trade near this line" or "don't fiddle with the middle!", it was a 20 tick loss,

After that i took a trade to recover that loss and profited 10 ticks, so now im negative by 9 ticks...lets see the close...
so we can reach our daily target of 30 ticks.

Greetings.

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  #25 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012

At re test of VAH @ 79.02, if momentum shows overbought, and sellers show up i will sell.

Ok i call this a Day!, Just closed my last trade of the day for +10 tick, I ended Flat in my balance for the day +1 tick but minus commissions, it was a hard session.

We have Crude Oil Inventories Tomorrow, hope to make todays and tomorrows money with it.

Greetings.

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  #26 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012

Ok i call this a Day!, Just closed my last trade of the day for +10 tick, I ended Flat in my balance for the day +1 tick but minus commissions, it was a hard session.

We have Crude Oil Inventories Tomorrow, hope to make todays and tomorrows money with it.
The forecast is - 0.7M


Look for:

1. Higher Inventory number
Demand High: Price should go UP

2. Lower Inventory Number
Demand: High --> Price Should go UP

3. Lower Inventory Number
Demand: Low --> Price Should Go DOWN

4. Higher Inventory Number
Demand: Low --> Price should go DOWN or sideways.


Don forget this is discretionary and depends of the market personality at the moment as well as market sentiment.

Greetings.







Greetings.

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  #27 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012

Hello all,

Good morning,


I wanted to add my insight for this day,

in the Economic Side, This morning i begin with a quick review of news from Europe which once again is coming out very bearish this morning. We have the lowest reading ON RECORD for the UK Loans Report which means that economy is coming to a halt very quickly, and news from the EU is telling us that we may be sitting and waiting for the Summit this weekend (and the newly-scheduled meeting between France and Germany on the 28th) so we will be keeping an eye on the market personality this morning. Remember, the market sentiment coming into the US Morning Session is key to us, so were looking for clues to see if the bears have carried into the US session this morning.

Regarding Economic News


830am EST we have Durable Goods Orders this morning which is one of our favorite news events because of its impact on Crude Oil. Much like manufacturing reports, durable goods go hand in hand with job creation, demand on Crude Oil and eventually things like retail sales and Non-Farm Payrolls down the road. Keep an eye on the market sentiment and reaction to this news after its released.


1030am EST on a Wednesday means Crude Oil Inventories Report and this is by far one of the most challenging, while rewarding news events you can trade. First, we need to remember that today MAY be quite sloppy until 1035am after the news is released, and with this waiting-pattern ahead of the EU Summit we may just see exactly that today. Second, if you know what to look for you can make some easy profit, but if you do NOT know how to trade this news report its a very dangerous way to trade. You wont be able to trust the NEWS on this, we have to read some other aspects of this report at 1030am EST today and we will discuss how and when we trade the inventories when we get to 1000am EST today. Set your alarm for 1015am EST and sit on hands through this report.


At the moment i see divergence in the CL and possible sell. this will depend on sellers showing up in the tape.


Greetings.

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  #28 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012

Hello,

Interesting move on the CL, i think the institutions are positioning for the data that could make the price fall, so they are ready to short it pushing the price high to the 80.50-80.70 range. i see momentum overbought, and pressure in the tape. will wait till 1035 to see price action and reaction.

I see a double top here @80.70, will see if this plays along!!

Greetings.-

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  #29 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012

I have taken 3 trades today 1 loser and 2 winners, market with mixed data, direction compromised.
My Account balance is +7 ticks, im looking for a re-entry if market allows so.

Greetings.

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  #30 (permalink)
El Salvador/Israel
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 7
Broker: GlobalFutures/AMPClearing
Trading: CL, GC, TF
 
JDNeeman's Avatar
 
Posts: 522 since Apr 2012


Hello, if anyone here trades the European Session i have my insight on the market.

Please see attached image.

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