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T For Trading

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  #1 (permalink)
 devdas 
Al,India
 
Experience: Advanced
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Hi guys,
I am starting this jurnal for some purpose to solve in my trading. I dont know..should
have i thank to the person who first introduce trading to me...or should have i beaten
him. whatever be, i fell in this jungle and now there is no quit from it.In past ,
many times i thought to start a journal of my trading but i could never decide, was it
needed..could i be consistent in maintaining that with honesty. There were coulple of
Journal Contest Events, but doing for that was a task that i never convince myself to
do. I believd , urge for journal should come from inside not outside factor and that
too will be timed by nature. I am not a person, that wakeup a morning and say, ok i
will start a journal today.I am trying to get rid of, some of my weakness and also
adding one positive,

1) I am lazy person, inconsistant in work, often leave it in middile. ( Biggest Weakness)
2) Not maintainig any trading record/journal . (Poor thing from this business side)
3) No fix trading plan each day. I trade what i see and feel. (Disastrous nightmare )
4) To have larger targets and increased number of lots. ( Dreaming )


But i am still trading and alive with profits.

Let me summarize about instrument i trade, its recent background/context and my
trading chart.

I trade only Nifty Future ( NF ) listed in National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. Its
lot size is comprised of 50 Units and Tick Size is 0.05. NF moves genarally in ADR
limits of 60 to 90 points ( 1 Point = 20 ticks ) and my round turn brokerage comes
approx 2 points/lot. Though i try to have better execution trading rather than profit
or points gain/loss oriented but unintentionaly whole day process sums to capture 10-
15 points per day. I trade mostly 1-2 lots, occasionally 3 lots and maximum 2-3 trades
perday.Exchange trading timings are 9:15 AM to 3:30 PM, but my trading time is mostly
restricted upto maximum 1-1:30 PM , and i often start the day late after opening. Its
due to my regular Job , which is my primary income source.

Here is daily chart of Nifty Future for some month back to today.



And here are two of my chart 3-min and 15 minute. There are two MA, Gom MP ( 2 day on
3-min and 5-day on 15-min ),Ranges of bars with SMA, VWAP and Pivots. I use nothing
much out of these in direct sense but trading without anything is still far task...and have
habit of some crowd, so not removing them.







futures.io (formerly BMT) has inspired me in many way, especially @PandaWarrior , @VinceVirgil Journal,
@Fat Tails Volatility Bands , @gomi MP and most @tigertrader . I like to invite every
one to have thier valuable coments on my mistakes. I choose today to start the
journal, as its good looser day after some profitable days. For some days i will post
annotation/coments on chart along with points gain/loss manily to have better idea of
"Why" and "when" of trades, that will reduce after some days.

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  #3 (permalink)
 devdas 
Al,India
 
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Will update later ( perhaps in eve ) ...still waiting to complete this short...


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Alexlaxmikant
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Looking forward for it as always..

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  #5 (permalink)
 devdas 
Al,India
 
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As usual i start the day late, not a problem for me. I remember those day not far back when i didnt wanted to miss even first opening tick.
After last day's big rally my obvious expectations from this day was some sort of rotation if not for full gyrating type but at-least for half day. Two volume spike seen at day start on 15-min chart were around 5017 and 4975 and they seems good as extremities of such possible rotation. For unknown reason i was biased for 4975...NF might test before going up. But Short there were with poor risk measured from VWAP in comparison to 4975. If it was not luring for Short then i decided to Long to test VWAP. That paid. Just some days back i learned how to prematurely exit 2nd lot on seeing un-favorable situation.
NF was moving in very cultured way, Bar ranges were in perfect size for my trading. Such a situation infuse little (over) confidence about every swing. When struggle at VWAP finally over with two down bar, i was again invoked with original unfilled biased target of 4975. Short was the call of situation..but i took single and went for bath. It changed its direction, weakness in downswing was evident with potential 2B Bottom. But being in comfort zone i switched to 15 minute and decided not to quit early on 3 min. Supply-2 formed and this was the time i finally moved my stop from Zone-A to Supply-2 high. If it had to go down from here it wont go up now immediately, if it go otherwise then trade over - simple. No worry about its outcome. And next big bar took it out.

Nett gain of day 9+6-3 = 15 Points after commissions.


Now when i review after all, i can attach many reason and negatives about second trade and its poor failure even after having MFE of 20 points ( though i was absent at that time ). When i came back it was little shocky psychologically that it still not covered 4975 and changed direction. Perhaps if it would have gone there then after coming back and seeing it had tested that lvl i might surely have gotten out just on 2B bottom.






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  #6 (permalink)
 devdas 
Al,India
 
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tomorrow is friday.



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  #7 (permalink)
 devdas 
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  #8 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Add was creating some pressure...took it out.


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  #9 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Im done guys for the day...if i would wait for more...i would not like to still call biased for 4975....

Will update in eve about "why" and "how" of these trades. Getting late for bath.



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 devdas 
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Its done from my side....
Stat go for both side....Its simple, if it need to make new high come above vwap and if new low remain below that.
If it make new high week turns out to be (4,1) pair...my guess.


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 devdas 
Al,India
 
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It amazed to see at EOD...how market made this and turned the week (4,1) after four stretched streaks of (3,2)/(2,3).
Simply unbelievable.








Terrific rise just remind me a scene from just released animation film "Arjun : The Warrior Princes". Arjun is indian mythological hero from Mahabharat. Just watch how he bows the fish from underwater....a trader need such a passion,concentration and rock-skill to hook that giant rise.


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  #12 (permalink)
 devdas 
Al,India
 
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As a review of day, each night i atleast look what the day finally looked like and can it be useful for any trade guidance next day. 7th June seems like ( clear on TPO profile ) dissipative profile ( im attaching a quick reference in next post for it from my old post last year in other forum ) , as a single entity. And LTZ was a good reference.
When i logged in , it was familiar look of rejection from LTZ....that lead to those Shorts. Though 2nd lot as add was a decision that i could not handle properly but overall it worked as expected.

Nett result of day = +6+17 = +23 after comm.





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 devdas 
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Dissipative Profile ( i liked to call it cause of psychology behind it...though its not a big variation from Double Distribution ) i found a very common situation in NF...it would be naturally everywhere. Im copy pasting a reference/example about this form last year posts...just for reference.


"Dissipative Profile", what exactly means here is just like frictional forces it tries to dissipates the energy of one type of auction players by trading at each and atmost prices of profile. What more pronounce here is obviously if we think it as war type between two type of auction players trying to pull price and value in thier direction, resulting profile might well look like thick ( a nature for ensuring trade at each and atmost prices ) and B-shape ( not necessarily double distribution with single prints ) Normal Variation profile with a Low TPO Zone in middle.




Now most chances of appearing this type of Dissipative Profile is near swing high/low than in continuation ( they still might appear in middile of running imbalances ). Rather i look it for hint of market turning in near term. And important to watch is to how Low TPO Zone is served by next day auction. Once a winner takes prices in own direction then they will try to restrict prices to go again towrads this Low TPO Zones...thats like boundary they already won. Opposite might be the case of accepting this Low TPO Zone indicating once again anothers victory.
With Some practice i think many can easily spot this type of situation, in summury what i look for in order,

1) Previous prevailing auction.
2) Appearence of a Decipitive Profle.
3) How next day auction serve Low TPO Zone.

Here are some recent occurence on NF.












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 Big Mike 
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Congrats on the journal, looking forward to reading more

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 devdas 
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Weekly, Daily and 15-min.








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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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  #18 (permalink)
 devdas 
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 devdas 
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Never felt easy today since coming early morning...first like waiting for continuation...second waiting for breakout....
where are those big bull bars today...
perhaps no more trade today



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 devdas 
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Still in marked range...


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  #21 (permalink)
 devdas 
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normally i would have traded this 2B Top....but seems nothing spared in this so-far-choppy range.


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 devdas 
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  #23 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Finally...i got my pie....done for the day.



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  #24 (permalink)
 devdas 
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On coming at opening of session , i was little anxious and this enforce my belief that its much better to come late than on opening for me. But it was my decision to come early and see. NF quickly dried its instantaneous volatility, this was also numerically observable from Bar ranges and Overlaps values. Overlap shoots to even 65% in middle. Bar ranges ( on 3-min ) in value of 4.5 to 5 ( and greater ) and Overlap 50-55% is a better suitable condition for my trades.
Not to say much, range day in first half.

Nett result of day = -8+2+18 = 12 Pts after comm.






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 devdas 
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Just a recap...waiting for unknown thing....





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  #26 (permalink)
 devdas 
Al,India
 
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Honestly...i passed long entry...i was little biased for not taking long.

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 devdas 
Al,India
 
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  #28 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Perhaps no more trade today...did what was i forced to take.



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  #29 (permalink)
 devdas 
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There were some "502 Bad Gateway" error some time back....i dont know anybody else experienced it.

Ahh...when i see this , it laughed on me...i could only chewed it one fourth...
Though small trade but will discuss about this in eve.



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 Big Mike 
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There were some "502 Bad Gateway" error some time back....i dont know anybody else experienced it.



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 devdas 
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Got late in yday Overnight Shift.

Though i occasionally biased for what to take , especially this happens when i see news and some one else analysis ( if its like EW..which i could never got ) , but this has reduced form previous nature of one sided biased for long or short. S&P downgrade of India Rating's caused 11-June noon sell-off. But how then pullbacks and pauses comes on daily chart...some thing has always to happen to shape the chart. When i logged around 10:50 , 12-Jun..soon after that i noticed a jerk in prices. My trading buddy told me it was due to news scheduled for IIP numbers....and that were poor...not surprising. There was a contrarian feeling about this and that was what market doing at that time just heading up at location A. This was an obvious entry but i was mocked...just letting it passed. Soon i realized its trading and filling single prints and low TPO zones of 11-Jun. It leads a shy long entry. I had an expectations to got it like previous spurt and flag type, but delayed rise some caused me to shut it prematurely without any foreseen weakness.

Nett result of day = +9 Pts after comm.






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  #32 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Some attention to these...


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  #33 (permalink)
 devdas 
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  #34 (permalink)
 devdas 
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If its easy symmetry then...no more fall for time being....but holding 2nd....for up to BE.

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 devdas 
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just a bit more push...and will quit @ 5089

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  #36 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I feel symmetry in play and its looking like pullback on 15-min. After symmetry i am not going to try any more, as it go crazy......



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  #37 (permalink)
 devdas 
Al,India
 
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Ok...final...before going.....just recapping.



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 devdas 
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Nett result of day = +15+16 = +31 Pts after comm.

One of benefits of coming late to market for me is, it already opens well and often gives clue about its forthcoming nature. Market Profile guys rightly say, pay attention to Initial Balance....( though i always found to be sleeping in that ...) and then trade. Not everyday is simple like this one....but on profile front these happens in some or other forms with variations.

It need to see first on left side. 11-June Sessions before sell-of was a sort of balance and then recovery and price placement back in that zone with creating point 2 and 3 ( 1 was already in 11-Jun ) in 12-Jun session. Nothing is changed to that balance region till the end of 12-Jun Session. Points 1,2 and 3 and their price parallels formed 2nd SD of this balance. This all would have been of no relevance for today, if today's opening would not have been dull and slipped towards center. But todays's opening despite two large bearish bars, simply stalled. This was the indication that it still needed to remain in balance and points marked will be going to play their role as usual - Price had to react from those zones. More 2nd SD points 4, 5, 6 and 7 appeared throughout the day. Whole region is still forming balance with Neutral day in hand.

What Next - Though it can pan out and break any side...no guesses, it make me biased...still holding what im thinking.






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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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scratched



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 devdas 
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waiting till 12-12:15 PM...


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 devdas 
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thats the poorest thing....why dont they release economic numbers after market close......so every thing atuodiscounted in gaps....
inflation numbers...



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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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running out of time...scratched


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 Mercury 
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Hello Devdas,

Congrats for your Journal..

In your first post you mentioned this as your weakness,
Quoting " 3) No fix trading plan each day. I trade what i see and feel. (Disastrous nightmare ) "

After reading your posts, i didn't see any plan before market open, how you decide your bias, trade ? if You change your bias then why u changed it ?

I suppose purpose of this Journal is to overcome weakness..so i think you should start by having your plan.

Looking forward ..

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 devdas 
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Two loosing trade. Nett result of day = -6-7 = -13 Pts after comm.

Break of balance was anticipated, and it did so. Both of trade were normal trades, but they are carrying different reasoning behind them. After success or failure or at the end of day, any number of reasoning can be attached but i will try to reproduce the thought at the very moment of market when they were taken.

Trade 1 : At the day start , its still in balance and immediate price structure was pointing down. As soon as an entry bar coincide with my type of view i took it. It was little slippery and fast to take.One element of this structure was long down sloping channel that gave me feeling that its too late. Market may not repeat this time, it had already done 2-3 times. This trade has no outcome bias from impending balance break which i have been in mind since yday. As it progressed just a little , its movement alerted me and i scratched it without delay. It was not any painful, just a normal entry within risk tolerance.

Trade 2 : It was the trade which i had in anticipation of breaking further down. I was almost confident of breaking down more. Point 8 and 9 have all the contextual meaning of breaking further down. But my entry location might not have been well placed according to larger time frame ( 15-min ). It was caught as pullback on 15-min. I dont know from my side it was early or late but structure did not proved it right.
One thing i learned definitely from this fail trade that , when i was eyeing a break of balance on larger time frame and my objective was large size target then i should have positioned my trade according to risk tolerance on larger time frame not on smaller time frame. This does not necessarily means taking higher risk, but locating smaller time frame structure on larger which have similar/same location. Such a location was after test of VWAP.

I have marked 2 more location A and B. A was purely , high risk high reward location in context of break and B was continuation location but it was a turbulent, high risk, i am not adapt of this risk yet.






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 devdas 
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Seems in process of thickening low volume zones.

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though bar ranges are very low....not suitable.

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scratched...not a feeling of right trade.

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 devdas 
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staying away till bar ranges and overlap improve a little.

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 devdas 
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I entirely missed the central theme of the day...overlooked key aspect of opening drive.
I know how my trading buddies would have chewed this...



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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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It might be too late..but corrected the mistake.

No more trade today.

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 devdas 
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Nett result of day = -4+9 = +5 Pts after comm.

Trade 1: It was as usual normal trade like yday, but i was little biased for short side. Not seeing that im selling on support and there was Open Drive type. I realized it later after scratching the trade on unfavorable price movement.

Trade 2: Took it late as gone away for mainly subsidizing my short bias. It was now much more clear case of longs then short. Took it before finally going.




Larger time frame picture is interesting now. Even after 2 bad eco numbers ...its perceiving higher value and placed above recently broken balance. Is not its headed higher...? Simple implication say - yes. But how it will give opportunity to trade is only known after opening on monday.


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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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new week's starts....

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 devdas 
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not working as expected...scratched

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 devdas 
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very small range rotation in 12 pts....had to wait n watch till RBI outcome....

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 devdas 
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i was of view of pending pullback on 15-min...

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 devdas 
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terrific.... horror show... )

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 devdas 
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grand'pa of pullback...

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 devdas 
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Closing the day. Had right call....but could not capitalize.
After this i cant have any view about this till charts and my mind stabilizes.
So might continue tomorrow.

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 devdas 
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Nett result of day = -2 Pts after comm.

It was distortion not only on chart but somewhat momentarily and for some time on rational thinking ability at the moment. My thinking was some what outcome biased in context of that short trade after and at the start of crack. Clearly it was the disappointment of missing. It involved almost throughout my workday at job and only subsidized by rationalizing the events from the start.

Was the trade , pre-planned before market opening ? - Yes.
Was the trade started with such an objective which could not be even thought at that time ? - No.
What was the outcome nature of trade ? - Just 15 to 20 points.
Was the stop decided at the start ? - Yes, but not fixed.
Was stop placed in system or mental with process ? - with process.
Was the trade quieted before maximum permissible stop ? - yes.
Was it the only opportunity in that direction before that event ? - No.
If No, then why not 2nd or 3rd trade initiated ? - become stubborn.

I find myself wrong on many aspect, especially stop decision which still i use to decide from structure unfolding. This may vary within the maximum permissible limit of my risk per trade, which is 12 points. I cant say whether this is wrong or right but i feel comfortable with this.






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 devdas 
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...

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stopped.

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 devdas 
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...

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 devdas 
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leverage against structure....not worked.

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 devdas 
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Nett result of day = -8-7 = -15 Pts after comm.

Both trades turned little out of sync with immediate momentum. Though loss could be lowered approx 6 pts in total, but was of view to leverage more on that.






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 devdas 
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Just taken for @kulu and @Private Banker.

though that was good entry setup on FP, but have also some confusing points in FP( will explain if possible after mkt )....but for me that was a 2B Top on 3 min coupled with pending pullback to larger MA on 15 min. They seems me obvious.









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 devdas 
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...

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devdas View Post
Just taken for @kulu and @Privatebanker.

Please note, Ben's alias has a space in it - @Private Banker, not @Privatebanker. Two different people.

Mike

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 devdas 
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Big Mike View Post
Please note, Ben's alias has a space in it - @Private Banker, not @Privatebanker. Two different people.

Mike

Oh... Corrected.

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 devdas 
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Nett Result of day = +9 Pts after comm.



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 devdas 
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A fair balanced day. Another instance of yday dissipative profile. Today , bulls seems defending their LTZ.




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 devdas 
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For tomorrow, i am looking to capture a major leg , probably down. Factors

1) Top Heavy Structure on 5 day.
2) Obvious placement at DVAH.
3) Poor Channel UpMove.




Lets c how it gives trade opportunity. Much depends on opening.

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 devdas 
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It just rebounds back from LTZ...im risking against it...lets c.

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 devdas 
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leveraged with in maximum stop limit...not worked.

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 devdas 
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  #79 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Nett result of day = -10 + 6 = -4 Pts after comm.


This was the type of day, when one wrong step catalyze more wrong steps. From yday assessment of more factors pointing downside break , made me blind to see what market actually doing in present time. When i see at this time, i feel i was hypnotized by market action and doing every thing which master orders slave to do.

I will detail little about first looser trade, its specific to the kind of entry bars i look for. This post trade analysis is nothing to do with any other aspect of context rather it is to not-repeat as it was poor execution. Bar type 1 ( 2-3 little bars ) and 2 are correct entry bar ( there are other some different type, will explain if they encounter in future ) from my approach. I am emphasizing more on entry type bar, cause structure unfolding post entry is decisive for stop and judgment to hold or scratch. If entry is not on optimum bar then assessment of stop/scratch will naturally go out of sense. Bar 3 was such bar which is not an entry type bar. What it costed me - only a delayed structure unfolding leading to large stop. Even if my entry was on bar 2 which is even lower from perspective of Short trade, but for that, bar 3 would have become clear signal of being wrong trade , costing lower stop. But i was hypnotized.

After first looser, i wake up to some extent , and realized its not going to break rather still rotating and i have to position my trade near extreme for fade. Second short was hesitated short , LTZ seems me biggest enemy to me , just popping up prices whenever it reach there. Closed the day after that, just felt i was loosing focus and energy both.






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 devdas 
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huge gap down....

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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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not going as expected...scratched

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 devdas 
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Bharatiya
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Hi DD how r u doing.
Congrats for your journal.

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 devdas 
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Went for bath...and it stopped at BE.
Back to Gamblers Strike Suite...highly suggested that low might not hold....or even further low.

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 devdas 
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I might not get entry now...its fast enough.

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 devdas 
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taqtrader View Post
Hi DD how r u doing.
Congrats for your journal.

I dont know many familiar Indian ID's
But its good to see participation , feel free to post positively.

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 devdas 
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finally got my share....

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 devdas 
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Still GSS suggest more low...but leave it...not everything go as expected.

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 devdas 
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3 Hour to go....any thing can happen...but so far its almost (3,2) most in population discarding lesser ( 4,1).



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 devdas 
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Nett Result of day = -4+0+17 = +13 Pts after comm.


Its roller coaster day. Nothing to say much, all three trades were driven as per momentum at the point.








Most interesting and amazing once again was the Week turned lesser pair ( 4,1) instead as expected (3,2) during day. After all it was Gambler's strike against big Gambler ( Market )....

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 devdas 
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Next week i am not able to trade due to some work , outside to city. So perhaps next to next Monday i will continue.
Though i want and will update larger picture profile and chart before going. It seems very random and indecisive direction.

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 devdas 
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Reviewing the development that happened last week, was absent to see live.

Its on the original expectation since excess 'E' formed near 4760 lvl, that was a consequence of move to efficiency , 4th step and almost nearing completion now. It also completed DB projected lvl etc. Session wise it is also making symmetry but there is still some left ( minus ) development under the POC in between 4960 to 5110 zone. I dont want to second guess this up-move 'Now', cause its firmly placed in proper position as per MA structure also, and simplistic unwinding from here will be to follow the trend-follow the imbalance. But i keep always a contrarian view at each obvious interpret-able locations and the contextual location prompts for such view. Last candle ( 29 Jun-12 ) might turn fake-out, still making impression of breakout from local balance. Its near multiday balance POC 'P',and next course of imbalance if any migh start just from this location. So although its firmly placed as bullish structure but also near the origin of next imbalance and a fakeout will turn it bearish.






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 devdas 
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range between 5270 and 5310.

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 devdas 
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If i assume symmetry and two rejections from upper 2nd SD lvls....then breakdown can give 5260 corresponding lower 2nd SD.

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 devdas 
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...

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 devdas 
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This 3-min candle is decisive...if didnt work..will scratch it.

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 devdas 
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Thats not a good move...its wasted 2nd chance....seems so. Out.

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 devdas 
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Taking a trade near local balance POC is a pain.
I took on assessment that much of chop i already passed and it may be time to take direction from here. But it didnt worked as expected..even leveraging little over structure. I cant hold assuming it is in tolerance limit of maximum stop, assessment of risk is directly attached to bar ranges and structure.

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 devdas 
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Nett result of day = +3 Pts after comm.

Got late due to miscellaneous pending works of last week.
Had a small time today to trade and that was a range activity after trend day ( Friday ). I am detailing some points and dividing the discussion in two parts, 1) Execution and 2) Fade the range.

1) With my day start , it was not tough to gauge in context of Opening rejection and Friday's closing activity that prices had more chances of going down first rather than going up first from my starting location. A Short trade initiated at Bar 1. I was aware of its location and bar ranges which were not very good from the perspective of trade to go in desired direction without delay. In contrast lower bar ranges also give benefit of lower risk and that can be used to position sizing - indirectly that mean i had a choice of initiating the trade with double size. But for some unknown reason i hardly ever used this in my execution. Perhaps i have always leaned towards minimizing structural risk first, before attempting any increase in size. So Bar 2 was a decent candle not only as for Add, but also as for fresh entry. I passed it without adding, it was a clear mistake i was aware of it at that time. Perhaps due to range activity i have not much confidence in getting desired tgt....MAE move just after entry at Bar 1 was one negative impact in this. And after Bar 3 i decided to scratch it. At the EOD i see Bar 4 just similar to Bar 2, except it was a large size bar. Bar 2 had more confirmation than Bar 1.

2) This part , i am discussing from the viewpoint of a fader ( i am not ) , its other thing it need skill that one can understand in hindsight but may not use properly in runtime. I have marked some hindsight fade locations that a hypothetical fader might use to initiate the trade.

First thing - Why Fade ? Its already explained Friday was big trend day , with slow grinding up activity in later half, Closing activity of friday and today's opening rejection were indication of market to spent time in rotation.

Second Thing - Why i dont use Fade often ? Simply i have no suitable plan for risk in this. I know most trade can be put with some fix stop loss risk, 5 point...or 10 point....or 15 point. That seems me random - how can as a fader, i use a fix stop loss when it is known fact that breakout point might fluctuate, breakout is open ended phenomenon in comparison to close ended range and fakeout/stophunt is easy possibility. I mean to say Fade risk are not of type that can be measured from fix stop loss and using fix stop loss does not make sense to me either. Those who use risk assessment from structure ( as i ) they might justify that if structure is with in fix stop limit than its ok. For example Fade Location 1's structural risk point was Opening Rejection and for Fade Location 2 , Fade Location 1 . Both were in limit of maximum fix stop loss ( 10-12 Points ) for me. But just compare Fade Location 4.....did it care my fix stop loss either way ?
This is one reason i dont try fade often and most of my trade are of type trend-cum-breakout-follow with some confirmation.



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