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T For Trading

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  #801 (permalink)
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Bloody blood





Its not fun, i unintentionally acted same way this week and last week, there is a faulty link in my methodology which is causing me to exit in improper way. Have to review carefully for some changes.

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  #802 (permalink)
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Risking a fraction of weekly profit on smaller TF long trade.
Stop nears 5555 approx 20 points away.



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  #803 (permalink)
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Got out with 1:1 reward , making up loss of first trade of the week.



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  #804 (permalink)
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Monday - Took one long entry. But following a small change in plan, quit with profit protection before it completely turns over me.



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  #805 (permalink)
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They behaving like just simple crossover of MA would have been more profitable than my thrown out and re-entry.
But this giving me more confidence to execute my methodology.
Two pin bars appeared, and both make me boil to quit the long, but that is not my part.



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  #806 (permalink)
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This is 1:1 risk reward now for "more" and "stop"



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  #807 (permalink)
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My objective of trail completes....exiting this long with approx 90 point profit.....i dont want more or say now risk anything earned....given 2maro holiday.






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  #808 (permalink)
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Monday - Took first Short entry after volatile Friday. Stop appeared clearly visible that prompt me to take in these volatile environment.



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  #809 (permalink)
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Protected a 47 point profitable trade.



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  #810 (permalink)
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A bottoming Response ...but not my methodology...keeping experience.



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  #811 (permalink)
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Took second trade of Week...stop is visibly in my limit. Going with higher frame.



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  #812 (permalink)
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This week, i could not do much...and one mistake. Basically i was afraid of losing money in high volatile bars, can not say why this fear crept in. In second trade i become overly optimistic about upside and didn't give away till it cost me with loss equal to MFE on that trade, some 18-19 points. Post development of 2nd trade , infused feeling of missout, but they really were not as per methodology. I could not think of going short solely even on momentum basis, it became a state of paralysis. I could not think of going short after a 100 point fall from top on that day which gone to 250 point approx from top.
3rd and 4th trade are moderate winner as per methodology , could survive again this week with gains.



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  #813 (permalink)
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Supported Entry and Exit conditions of 4th trade from ladder, but still not outside of methodology.






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  #814 (permalink)
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Current Prices are on higher value side from last 3,4,5,6 and 7 days cluster.
This dynamic does not change on bar basis rather it changed on day. So if change is eventual than
dipping towards lower value side is worth high reward.



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  #815 (permalink)
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Opening and Last day closing are in sync with premise of short, only thing new developed is appearance of 2nd SD that seems obvious to hold the price once more in region. Logically i scale out with 6090-95 level in mind, till that time trend might also come in action.






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  #816 (permalink)
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Moving with low volatility zone, 4 days to go on expiry.
Likely to settle in lower zone of bollinger band or aggressively in trend channel.



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  #817 (permalink)
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Seems to be penetrating the lower 2nd SD zone and on my way towards last week driveWAP of 6095.
Current prices are in middle of 5 and 6 day value above vwap but reaching to lower value side in 4 day value ( not shown in figure ) , so down ride may not be smooth, lets see how it spans next day.






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  #818 (permalink)
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Higher Opening pushed me to exit shorts with small profit,
action seems resuming long side, but still i am not convinced mainly cause
of clear development in between balances. Though i am forced to take long
without my personal feeling, atleast to take a low risk long is my first choice.
From my chart , i will be in 6141-42 with stop as low as 6114 and target for 6230.





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  #819 (permalink)
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Ok, Its now in and some convincing action seems to me.
Its very clear from chart where my stop should be headed higher from 6114 now,
but much of my action about this depends on Opening Price location of Monday
with respect to today's development.






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  #820 (permalink)
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devdas View Post
Ok, Its now in and some convincing action seems to me.
Its very clear from chart where my stop should be headed higher from 6114 now,
but much of my action about this depends on Opening Price location of Monday
with respect to today's development.



Not liking this long trade also, exiting with moderate profit.



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  #821 (permalink)
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This was natural to expect for me and to throw some short for early advantage.
Sellers in control right from opening. I always amazed how new contract always obeys
valuation granted from previous contract prices



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  #822 (permalink)
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Though in short term basis, sellers pushed down and hold the bulls, but i dont want to carry on more from here,
exited the short with moderate profit.



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  #823 (permalink)
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Opening is a bit unfavorable to buyers but they are in control so going with them with my stop being 6257.



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  #824 (permalink)
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Thats a quick move, offloaded some quantity and raised my stop for rest to 6268, and my trade is free now.



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  #825 (permalink)
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Exited completely...pretty quick....sellers will respond this.



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  #826 (permalink)
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I am still shy to short this....buyers seems responding in similar way on two retrace candles...



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  #827 (permalink)
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Re-entering long...stop 6280. I feel it might make another attempt to go higher above 6300...thats a classic behavior with Nifty.


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Stopped Out.



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  #829 (permalink)
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Thats structure has now changing and probably its heading for Value Area Play.
Took some positional short, stop being 6295 and target for this nearly comes as 6180.



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Thanks devdas for sharing your journal, I am reading one by one pages of it. As a nifty-fut trader, it's really beneficial for me.

Thanks,
san

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Took only one trade in my available time.
It didn't worked upto my first target, so scratched.







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I am new here and was reading you first post of this thread and was laughing inside because I could relate to what you were writing. So thank you.

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.......... " why didn't my target achieved ".....costed me.

I was open to every possibility and well know how it could span, perhaps this confidence turned in my attitude and then mismatched one trade in three and lost 10 point.

Got offtrack once it didn't reach 7613 in morning slide.






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...waited till my available time, but expected move didn't happened....perhaps it was waiting my quit.







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Today i had only first one hour approx. for trading. I often refrain to trade in such small available duration, so it might look like that i took this trade randomly in fly but rather i was very much confident about statistical premise and edge behind it. I would not lie that today i was neutral, if it would have started moving down after opening i wont have taken short trade.

I had came for Long only.






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Dramatic , but not unexpected ( atleast for my visualization ).
How could we see a support giving support and resistance providing resistance
There is, and should be a indicator called - "Random"






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Reverted from a strong weighted price, opening the path to 8370 and perhaps below that.






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Above today's High so far ( 8234 ) there is strong possibility to reach in 8280-8300 zone in next course.




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There is sign of miniature resistance around 8330, clearing that should ideally go near 8400.
But its not seems in hurry right now, being friday there can be resettle around yday closing.



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At around 110 point range, its good time to call off early Friday.....go for eating, go for bathing....go for shopping etc etc.......and save your 3 hours.



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From a large swing perspective and from symmetry its where it had to. But right now from intraday , it seems me in middle and hence a wait to act. possibly i might take short near 8518-25.






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Right from beginning slow updrift was visible, still i took a short in that range but could not get handsome.
Second relatively big rejection made me thinking of flushing out but this time too it bounced from MA. Quickly
quit second short also. In summary , felt like fighting against the trend.



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This was old favorite MIRZ long premise and hence traded well for long.
Half position was with good reward, rest was a little annoying in anticipating
possible FA. Though i was not in mood of any Short trade in this, only quit the rest long on weakness.






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Opps....i didnt said it to fall......



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Today was a bit slow move, add to that i entered long after initial upmove , near 8616. Just after that it gone in a bit
consolidation and drift. Though both possible stop 8610 and 8602 ( both being local HVN ) were in my risk limit.
Finally it gave a breakout and quit all longs at one place.



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Higher opening lure me to short for a quick mean reversion trade, but i was quicker than price.
I paid for this and first short trade lost full stop of 16 point from 8735 to 8750 with in first few minute.
This obviously lead me to Google ( ) obvious reason of failure. Seriously i was early....very early that
acted on nascent short sign. In such outcome i have often left rest of market without any further attempt.
But given possible rewarding structure of today, took second short near 8750 , after significant sign, and quit
at average price of 8727.






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I had always estimate developing range/points based on TPO chart, i got this sense over long time using that.

a) On after opening my guesstimate about bounce level were 8703 and 8683 , latter being a far possibility at that time.

b) On after bounce from 8707 another rejection sense was from 8750.( Low volume and delta were addons for this )

c) On rejection at 8750 , this was now more risky for any side, but guesstimate were now 8777 upside and far lower possibility of 8683 still open.


But being every good sense i didn't wanted to come out of my comfort zone after two trades. On point (b), i was just
to open a short trade again but could not pull the trigger.






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This MIRZ long setup was again repetitive and easy for me, but i had a little hesitation about entry timing.
Another hesitation was of initial delta pull. I discarded that and weigh this as test of yday resistance level 8750, after all
that was the whole basis of MIRZ. Got good entry and good reward, given that yday's upside target 8777 still
reachable.


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Stuck between 8780 and 8760. I think to short but not early. Waiting to breach 8760 that will open the possibility
of 8683 in next course.



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Most annoying thing of trading - Waiting, waiting when its on verge of breaking a boundary. You dont want
to miss a penny and pay if got wrong.



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Took short at 8776. stop for this is within risk limit 8791.


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In range its often tough to gauge who is stronger. 8760 again given upbounce.


Reduced stop from 8791 to 8786.

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Price clock suggest to reduce stop at 8776. Chaned.



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Took out all short @ 8767.



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Today's gapup opening was surprise for me, i was simply not prepare for this. This infuse the feeling of discard.
It was MIRZ but also on extremes of range sense, hence was not thinking to Long. Neither , was thinking to Short this
mad upblast, i cant judge the stop....stops are useless if i venture the short. This was just the sense of this opening.

All of sudden it start falling and big downbar set me the feeling of missing out rewarding short. It was very annoying
not to have anything. But as it was touching/forming the MA bulge, i could visualize that i can trade a test of low in this situation. Took a short in small bounce near 8829 and quite all at 8813.



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In this buyer-seller strength/pressure histogram, i have often noticed extreme imbalance in form of small-large
histogram bar that indicate a turning point nearing. Not saying that it dont happen in continuation , but often the prevailing trend changes.



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Today, taken two trade, first Long and then Short.

First bar with long tail was indication of prior trend continuation but i was thinking simulatneously a maturing trend which could trap me in Long. So waited a lot untill some MIRZ long setup looked like. It was MIRZ but in respect to first bar it was delayed a bit and less than what i wanted to show it. Still i got Long @8865. Over development in top bar was giving me false impression that it will burst upward and reach 8880-90 zone soon, but continuous shift in volumes made me quit that trade for 9 point loss( didnt waited a bit for Stop Loss ) and immediately gone short @8857.
Short too took little time but reached near low to get out @8839.

(Attached also Buyer/Seller Strength/Pressure chart though none of desision were influenced from this. )









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Pre-defined actions in form of Lower and Upper Rejections.









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Took Short, anticipating another test of lows ...or even lower.


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Not overconfident , but i could recognize easily this was going to happen.

Easy short...took out all in burst down.



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Testing a new bar type, manipulated and modified on Volume bar type - Calling it "Activity Bars".

This has better "trending" , less noise than volume bars ( for similar parameter ) and yet not losing basic price action.
Some comparative snaps.












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Fair chances of making high above yday. Stop is logical @ 8860.



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Attempted, failed seems over now.



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Beautiful MIRZ, still offering nice opportunity with stop @8808 and expected target around 8870 or more.





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MIRZ failed, took loss in long.



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Today's prices are of new expiry, but as always it does not matter much when i see it as value driven,
took this MIRZ long @ 8767, added premise is - will market repeat so easily



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Quit some and rest for free.

If one is thinking what type of premise is this , then it need to go back 2-3 post above when it failed.



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Activity



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And over


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Chances for 8930 revisit, with stop as day high.



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Stopped Out in wrong trade. Didnt reversed for Long trade.



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Modified and added the option to compress the chop range in Activity Bars, Parameter A1 plots normal Activity Bars.
With Parameter A2 , developing range will keep on accumulating round Activities till a decisive break happens.
There is a Accumulation Number appearing on Bar that have such compression of bars, i wanted to see how dense it is
otherwise it was simply a bar.
Right now i have extracted these numbers from bar formation to Activity Counter indicator, but i wanted to plot it from Bar itself. It might be little tricky, might be it need separate ChartStyle.







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At a glance it looks very odd to have such large bar , it does not directly seems to help in scalping atleast but it helps in "waiting".






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Heart of Market.



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No rescue plan , every one wants to quit the market.

How traditional indicators, divergence, implied volatility, crossover , failure , success weigh this



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Till some month back,

I was trying and trading the "Displacement", but luckily one day unintentionally i got the chance to trade "Distance" and my trading changed forever. I realized trading the distance was much easier than displacement, because you know what path you will be following. Displacement were like final Result and distance mimic the Hard Work to achieve the Result.
Would it be possible to get Result without Hard Work, perhaps not and that is the mistaken point in trading.

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A typical bullish structure.



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Till some month back,

I was trying and trading the "Displacement", but luckily one day unintentionally i got the chance to trade "Distance" and my trading changed forever. I realized trading the distance was much easier than displacement, because you know what path you will be following. Displacement were like final Result and distance mimic the Hard Work to achieve the Result.
Would it be possible to get Result without Hard Work, perhaps not and that is the mistaken point in trading.

Care to elaborate this ?

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This bullishness was already carved yesterday.



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April IV's were hovering near recent low of 13-12.5% slight low below 13.8-14% of HV.
Today they hit low of 12.5% and bounced back to 12.8-12.7%

Straddle 8600April rose in accordance from day low.



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Collapsed once again back to 12.5%



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Factoring in the direction towards 8600.



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Directional move of morning



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Trying to break the bottom.

It would be better to add IVs on chart , tonight task.



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8600CE IV is main driver of this straddle.
Inching up with IV in anticipation of hitting a temporary bottom.



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Knee-jerk and meltdown.
New IV lows.


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Added 8600CE April IV and 8600PE April IV as separate instrument.

8600CE IV is still dominant.



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8600PE IV dragger.



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IVs catching up to ruling HV.



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Blow Up.






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Fun time with old daily charts , of which Ichimoku chart was really really amazing.









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Value See-Saw



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MIRZ Long setup.




8500CE and Its IV


8600CE and its IV

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Fastest fall in 8600CE IV, 8500CE IV and 8400CE IV following the suit with rising NF.



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It was not obvious fall in 8600CE IV so sharply, atleast i had not expected. Though its IV started falling even before price spurt. That translated to 7-8 point net on delta neutral with 0.36 delta.



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Does this looks like normal instrument where obvious PA can be applied ?
cause every shift of 0.5% translate to approx 7-8 point DN scalp in current regime.



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All IVs are high ahead of CP tomorrow.
This are high more due to holding of premium and i guess that are bound to loose by 1-1.5% in a day.



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For today, fair chances of a down day closing down towards vwap.



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