I had gone away with orders placed to short @69...but it didnt went upto that....nothing now feel like a big move from limited activity day....i mght be wrong about range.
Partly due to some coding and mainly due to having some position trades taken this week.
Second is my very old issue - i cant instantiate my trading thought in two way , if i ever take positions to carry overnights then i cant think unbiased for intraday.
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Another method that works (I got inspiration from Gary Smith's book 'How I Trade for a Living') is pitting your strategies against one another instead of letting your ego take the payload. By transferring the emotional payload to a strategy you remove yourself from the equation.
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I do not especially look for this, rather they naturally pop-up often and mostly when its in balance.
Apart from other things , one particular key point i have always felt about these that "closer" the divergence e bars more the chances of success , like here 3 bars on 15 minute series.
All three type of entries have their own trade-offs risk and confirmation.
And when it comes to risk, my mind start to think like bargain hunter - " why should i wait when my contextual experience says divergence will appear ", but my little trend following nature do not often allow me to jump before point 1.
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This cumdelta percent is a sort of progression factor for the day. I pay attention to drastic changes from one cell to next if any. that alarm possible shift........they would be also visible on candles.
But what was an opportunity for intraday for when opening slipped from yday four step 2nd SD and continued to remain like that. did i added to existing short ? or i found opportunity to reduce that ?
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My abstract thought and expectations - this budget week has so far completed 127 points, lower than previous week...atleast it deserve larger and bigger if not outlier ( ) range.
I cant gauge myself if i am turning greedy or becoming stubborn with profitable trade ( just like a novice trader who treats with his loosing trade )...or not able to decide where to exit.
Other reason which i think, subconsciously i have attached to this trade cause i had waited too much for a new nascent trend started from top creek bar. Truly this is still far from maturing unless MA crossover happens on price chart and on weekly chart. Any thing is possible, at this time a logical halt i feel might be larger channel mid band and VAL of left profile which is near coinciding around 5640-50 level.
Exited part of short. chances of bounce are natural. Here yday price are from Feb contract and today's price are from March contract.
Though any thing is possible and for expiry adjustment logic of common man this might test yady low on "Chart" ....that will be terrfic if happens, but i cant expect today's March price to test Feb Low in hurry. Penty of time to think for next course of action.
Its ok if your strategy calls for historical/longterm bull market entry/addition , but i try to capture opportunity if its chances are for sizable move. i discussed this situation from very beginning here,
First on daily chart, this down creek is "nearest" to peak in comparison to last 3 down creeks and provide lower risk in this regard.
Second on weekly chart, weekly closing below 5969 will spur negative …
On the other note , amount of fall/rise on event should not be indication/conclusion for entry.
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Liquidated total short positions. It was in form of Puts, and i feel even if it goes to 5640ish level in subsequent course over next day , i might not get better better rate in terms of Put prices.
Part reason for this exit, i feel its extended little much.
Cum Delta Percent will have different gradient over different spans of time of day, just due to gravitating total volume
over the session. Though it rose by approx 5% for first pair of consecutive bar but cautious is , this was happening in IB when volume is just building. It again rose by approx same amount for next pair of bar.
If structure wise i discard to exit Short, this shift in sentiment could not be avoided.
There was some hesitation to enter any trade after some day. I was there since opening and could let go decent Long, but np , its more of observation and understanding than trading.
Now its turning like MIRZ, and i am well aware of its failure/cotinuation , but still i feel very selective today. Opportunity might not come in my time.
I was not looking for particularly Short, but didnt wanted to be trapped in bad location with Long.
CumDeltaPercent ( CDP ) drop at "A" , near IB is usual if we understand the ongoing process , this was not a very good location for Short. However this location ( 5757 ) was near zone of demand/supply inflection but i discarded this due to being in middle of 5-day value.
Rise in CDP at "B" almost ensure restrengthening the Long side, this was also the MIRZ success. It was my mistake to let pass this Long opportunity.
I thought to use 5-Day VAH to take a chance for Short, but it didnt worked and i could easily sense that time is running out for this to work. Also CDP at "C" were not very rosy to sit in short any more.
I happened to notice that you are using continuous contract for Nifty. Which data provider are you using for the same ? I have subscribed to esignal; But in esignal as of today there is no way for 3rd party apps such as NinjaTrader to extract chart data as continuous contract for non-US futures.
Though today's prices are from April contract, but i have always felt it continuous when i see it as Value driven.
This developemnt is MIRZ type over the older balance.
I dont use esignal, so cant tell how to get continuous contract data in NT with that.
I use external feed for Nifty and manually maintain database at EOD.
my friend @edakat uses esignal , perhaps he can help you.
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I have gone in a comfort zone with trading my instrument where i can look around other things recently.
Hope this does not sound like "hey rush...sky is falling...".......i thought why not to look how a different region looks from my side. So yday night i opened a practice account at TST, i had no intentions or skill yet to go for a combine, but it is a small step to test my visualization on a totally different market, i feel so at this stage. It was a small piece of chart that looked like exactly as MIRZ failure on Nifty that started really.
Some initial 2-3 trades were by mouse hovering accident over T4 DOM........i didnt know it will trade like that. There was no WMA in T4 ( it seems ) so i had to replace it with TMA on chart. I thought it will be totally like newbee who enters first time in stock market and started hooking here and there, but i could not feel that in myself , i thought exactly as i think in NF...and surprisingly and perhaps luckily ES moved as per that.
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I have traded this many times. There were many carved stones that tells its weak , have marked them.
One of the most abstract thought is in 5 day value, 3 days are from April Contract and 2 are from March contract, in context of one step larger down bias its high likely to test 5 day Value.
Well, i am looking to sell in the region marked. I am not in mood to buy for bulge reaction to limited/truncated upside move. Its probably going to waste time as re-attaining older balance zone ( marked by two arrows ). My plan to sell in marked region is only according to pullback and MA situation which at this time i could visualize...so it may or may not happened like that.....in my trading time. Otherwise i will be observer on side line.
It lure me to jump for buy....just a bottom fishing idea, but i am very little selective today.
There are sign of response clearly...i will think to buy on the right side of bottom rather on left side , once 5594-95 cleared.
Its placed beyond a supply zone. Will be looking for Long with favorable situation. Stop is a bit larger from intraday perspective but as a positional trade i am looking for least target of 5700+ , so stop size is appropriate for me from that view.
Its simplicity confused me and i could not do anything.
Yday StopOut had little disappointed me. Today i was not thinking neutral , was trying to catch it first rather than getting in late. Yday buying tail and today's opening slipping below support were two contradictory point for me to decide. Some moment i thought to take intraday call....then next moment i tilted for positional short. I still see on weekly chart having some room for upside till trendline...but that may or may not happen. I was totally confused.
Have been thrown out of positional short yday. I am still observing for preferred action , numerous bounce from 5800 level could be used for intra - Long trade but i decided to stay away from that.
Last two days have been fairly balanced and neutral extreme type.
Fortunately had full day trading today. ....perhaps NF moved madly knowing i am present in 2nd half....
Second half day action was typical NF expiry type
Stop out from 2nd trade ( Long ) affirms me that its certainly going down to sub 5850 level, luckily captured some points in 3rd trade ( Short ). It was very swift and cautioning me, not to be greedy to let it leave for positional Short. It was right decision to quit taking fast profit.
Last big upleg had intuitive call but no other logic so just observed how 5900 CE moved from Rs 1 to Rs 16 in matter of 10 min , that could be a truly gamblers bet.
It was easy to get triangle breakout target point ( approx 5965 ) used for intra short entry point
. I quit short seeing possibility of MIRZ structure which can still pull price to 5950+ zone. But again if visualization works as shown than 2 out of 3 possibility pointing down ( from my view ). Just relaxing for next action.
Had been tracking a trend-following intraday strategy on 5-min period. Strategy was WFO on data spanning over 1-May-2010 to 15-Nov-2011, and since then under observation constantly. Last year a stagnant period from Aug-2012 to Nov-2012, followed by steady slow rise till Mid March and then regaining equity slop similar to post optimization forward test periods.
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I have experienced this rectangular region type repulsion often , and it had a good potential of throwing prices back by sizable amount. Decided to carryover short over weekend.
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After my entry it had bounced from 593x-40 level nearly 5 times, a novice can teach me that .....hey! why you are holding and betting against such a visible demand level ?
I could do micromanagement of this trade or simply quit with 40+ point profit on same day, but when things comes to train your mind in new dimension then often things go wild. I can easily feel that , its not easy possible to break-down 593x level from chart constraints, but at the same time discretionary stop should also be obeyed - that is passive development in repulsive rectangular region. It will cost me approx 40-50 point stop, but have to take if i need to see sub 5900 level.
This could not be simpler than this....i didnt wanted to scalp short....but it was naturally popped on.
It is "be the first" situation....not "let the market show me"....
How you could survive in Rectangle - Just close your eyes , hold your breath and let pass the Roller Coaster
They are made to filter - but their appearance is itself mark of unfolding
I have almost everytime asked myself this - do i need to focus on scalp setup and trades ?
when i patiently watch and wait for my chance , these pop ups naturally , they try to distract me to act like "to be the first" rather than "laggard trend follower". I could feel the response without flow chart, they had natural location of Balance low. From fader point of view this is the location to act and jump, they would be absolutely right in their assessment and result , but now these things truly make me feel that everything is non-repeating random, there is no twin of situations but still we know almost all human have common shape and body parts.
This week was rather easy to operate. It had a choice of taking Long entry where 3 out of 4 conditions were in favor ( 1 last condition was of opposing MA placement ) of long. That long had added advantage of location that was prior balance low. On weekly basis i had to take initiative on Monday or on subsequent day as long as extension from weekly dwap are in statistical limit. A better 4/4 Short entry came on tuesday. Yday was a decisive situation for whether to hold or quit taking profit as extension were on limit.
Callling off this week today at this time.
Only two trades opportunities. Lost in long.
Exiting Short, as being Thursday and extension from dwap for this day are in statistical limit, once again.
Overall a gain week.
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Closing this week with another good positive addition
It was jerky on first trade but no problem, it made me accustomed of taking that much risk.
Yday being Thursday , i consider this as late day to enter from weekly perspective but at the same time it had not extension too much from dwap, that had some potential to expand, so picked that 4/4 Long. surprisingly i took delayed entry. Yday being expiry, so this entry was taken on july contract, (chart shows june prices on thursday and july prices today ) and was actually above 8 points , @ 5653.
There are no Short Entry in this whole week ( yet to complete )
Coming as a looser week, but i honestly followed plan even discretionary i could avoid short or might have exited early . Its Thursday , cant say if any more entries will pop-up, may be in 2nd half today.
Till yday morning i had got feeling of this week turning like a doji , that would not be beneficial for me.
Passed next 3/4 Short and 4/4 Long that appeared yday noon. Extension were very low even on yday that was a inviting factor for still entering the trades. But having two looser i got little defensive in selection. Closed the week with loss.
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Hi Devdas,
Congratulations for maintaining such elaborate trading journal on a regular basis. Keep up the good work. It is good to find guys trading NSE in futures.io (formerly BMT) forum. I am sure writing daily journal has helped in your trading. I was reading somewhere - to inculcate new habits or to change bad one, besides other things, you need a supporting community. I am sure futures.io (formerly BMT) is the right place. I have been wanting to write journal from a very long time, but just didn't do it. I think now I have enough inspirations to start one.
Happy trading.
VKS
The following user says Thank You to vksingh for this post:
Go ahead with your journal. I assure you only this step will lead "New You" by miles from "Old You".
If you have observed/read older pages from last year on this journal, you will find that i had started trading with 3-min chart , over the time i am surprised now that i am trading only on 15 minute chart in a weekly framework.
Not only that, i could easily give up the charm of hunting the reversal trade by leaving 5-day continuous VAH/VAL from my chart. I really dont need those reversal trades anymore and from now i will try to close my eyes more from them.I have now on my chart the only stuff that turns my vision as a trend trader.
It was Monday and from chart i already knew that i might not get entry today. Stayed away, but waited full session.
Discretionarily , i could use momentum of last week and as a continuation of last Long trade from arrow marked today to enter long trade, but that was not a valid entry as per my methodology rules.
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There will be many opposing factor for this short from different context but i am better blind for that. Have paid many times in past. Only pathetic feeling was that after 3/4 short price action never turned in 4/4 short premise , keep on oscillating between 1-2-3 type. One thing i felt that could make my trade look better - that is to 'Add' after price fell off from weekly dwap ( 5994 ) twice.But leaving this thought for another time. Hope this week is not on path of making a dozi candle and i will have a chance of good profitable extension.
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There was no hesitation for this 4/4 Long, but my inner was worrying about profit feasibility in remaining 1 day.
I followed strict discipline of methodology that caused delay between exiting short and entering long, my discretion and intuition both were in same direction that it is MIRZ successful development that had to be utilized as long only as low as possible.
Ok now its again same decision whether to quit at current level making a small loss week or waiting for 6078 or 6020.
Putting Exit @ 6078 and Stop @ 6020. Getting 6078 will make my week nett profitable and stopping out at 6020 will not increase on previous trade loss. Or will get out between them as conditions evolves.
Hi Devdas,
Your journal is quite simple and impressive. There is lot to learn from it. Keep it up !!!
I need some information from you:
1) From the images I see you use Ninja trader as your charting platform- what data feed do use and how is the quality ???
2) Where can I get historical tick data or one minute data backfill for the last one or two years ??
The following user says Thank You to vksingh for this post:
I use OdinFeeder and data quiality is same as Odin and mostly 96% equal to esig and gfdl.
I keep historical tick data of NF since 2010. I dont know any other source.
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This was a tough week when i could fail easily after taking three initial losses.
Apparently i was seeing Monday's losses as just those trades which i had taken in very old past on 3 minute charts in previous balance but i was helpless not to take them. My premise is to capture Weekly range and Weekly extension , and i didnt wanted to impose any discretionary thought in presuming the winning trade.
After third loss another indecisive situation appeared - whether to jump on discretionary correct but methodologically invalid Short entry or simply wait for valid entry. So far i did the same -waited for valid entry as per my methodology and got finally a trade which offset the three loosing trades of this week.
In below chart price on 24-July is from July contract and on 26-July its from Aug contract which has been on roughly 30 point premium to july on my entry.
No other reason than protecting profit to quit the trade. Extension are slightly on higher side on Tuesday but that would be normal in strong trends. There appeared single high volume tick which distorted dwaps in between.
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The following user says Thank You to devdas for this post:
Hi Devdas,
Thank you.
Actually I have lost about two years of tick data due to hard disk crash and no backup due to my stupidity. I have one more request- if you could share with me at least 1.5 years of nifty future front month historical tick data.
Thanks in advance.
VKS
This week had almost over for me on Tuesday itself.
There were secondary Short entries also thereafter but i didnt like higher point risk due to sudden increase in volatility . Overall a positive week when i could squeeze approx 45% range in a trade so far.
I was little biased for getting Long entry that caused me to take invalid long in hurry.
But at the same time intuitively i am not comfortable with short also....but blindly following methodology and ready for another loss if comes , putting aside my all intuition and discretion.
I owe the credit to be fully wrong....but protecting profit.
Its Tuesday , and extension are in range of 70%, apart from this i had already biased long feeling thinking that this week might turn a consolidated dozi week, after last week big bearish candle.
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The following user says Thank You to devdas for this post:
....they would be also visible on candles.
) 
...i could only wait for pulls that never materialized.
....perhaps NF moved madly knowing i am present in 2nd half....
