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  #601 (permalink)
 devdas 
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02-Jan-2013 :

It was not different than yesterday if i compare openings ( though i have been absent during openings since ever my kid's schools are off and i guess it will continue so for this week atleast ) , i just corrected yday mistake but i could not fetch much. Last 3 days openings were single tick...giving illusion of fast open drive , rather all these days were very slow and they were sufficient to give calm massage to my mind - not to be much active. I am feeling, i am becoming more and more momentum affectionate and i act on direct perceived situations or impending ones.

I am posting weekly and daily chart also for quick reference , as i have not done in recent past.











This week closing might fizzle out RSI -divergence...but let this week complete first.






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  #602 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I have been trading on my 3-min and 15-min chart since last 9-10 months and i have good sync with them. Even i am more selective for chart size , x-axis and y - axis scale but most of thing on these two chart have become obsolete for my view, i am only keeping them as not to change anything or just have become habitual to crowd.

Some time i think to merge these two in one, having functionality and expression from both and eliminating obsolete indicators. Below is such a chart with two data series ( 3-min primary and 15 - min secondary and hidden. ) which is still not complete with its component ( i am thinking to deploy 15-min MA with show/hide functionality with a click/hotkey ). Its current component list is as given below,
  • 1) anaCurrentDay VWAPV38 ( 3-min)
  • 2) ALTOGomMP with 5 day Value ( 3-min )
  • 3) GomDeltaVolume ( 15-min )
  • 4) ScrollLite




still in development......

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  #603 (permalink)
 devdas 
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took short : Posted via AutoPoster


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  #604 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Now stop in risk of 2 points : Posted via AutoPoster


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  #605 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Took little time but gone the way....covered : Posted via AutoPoster


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  #606 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Thats psychological comfort : Posted via AutoPoster


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  #607 (permalink)
 devdas 
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03-Jan-2013 :

Took one small short. Slow moves persist...



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  #608 (permalink)
 devdas 
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another day same short


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  #609 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Now stop is in 1 point risk


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  #610 (permalink)
 devdas 
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thats fine for the daylet it be slow


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  #611 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I could have trailed for 5day vwap
but slow irrited me


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  #612 (permalink)
 devdas 
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took another short for 3 point risk
tgt 6013


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  #613 (permalink)
 devdas 
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gone stop...hardly works re-entry
or hv to set a larger stop..but just fine.
@vvhg , Line return of text boxes are not working ,
i had to use your line break feature in text box also.


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  #614 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I had to include BarTimer for 15 min series.
There was small divergence developing near my 2nd short but i could not
noticed or gave preference due to timing of 15 min bars.
though rectangular location developed as nice turn-around.
negative divergence near end i think might gain pull it down.
Let it be that way on monday, hope to ride either way.


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  #615 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Took short


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  #616 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Both way it looked 50:50...i had to take what i felt...gone with respecting opening bias and very abstract logic of how it can
repeat simly yday.

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  #617 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Stop is structural and mostly with in 10 point MAE....it would be prety clear this is not going to work.

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  #618 (permalink)
 devdas 
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If i consider time before and after yday noon imbalance then they seems almost equal at this time...so logically a point of taking
direction.


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  #619 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Now structural stop is in place...6048.5...


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  #620 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Scratched...taking 2 point loss


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  #621 (permalink)
 devdas 
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04-Jan-2013
07-Jan-2013


I could not still come on regular schedule and both days gone very small activity. Nothing much significant to report and post, except today i could have waited for little profit. I had stayed after scratching the short, and saw it going atleast 10 point in my favor, but no regret.
My irregularities in day sessions now a days are also partly due to involvement in coding for my long pending works that i always delayed blaming time limitations due to my day job. If i left something regular then it become "start from scratch" procedure and unnecessary waste time in regaining/re memorizing past tricks and tactics. Same goes to my coding...and i guess this is common/natural to others also.

Last four trading days now formed a higher value zone and rotating through it. So nothing at this moment can be firmly said about breakout direction, neither i have approached like that..let it naturally intuit me to take trades alongwith trend on 15-min tf in my trading times.










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  #622 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Missed the morning action.


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  #623 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I hv not seen a structure like this on NF in my recent past


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  #624 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I am very indecisive with this.....for what i am waiting..dont know...equally i feel i am missing counter trend Long also.
But still not taking any call


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  #625 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Took Long....


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  #626 (permalink)
 devdas 
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My stop is now 5999 a for point initial risk

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  #627 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Got stopped out. I saw it turning much before near 6007-4...but i didnt quit...waited to hit stop. Now this is what i had in mind originally to go long in 5994-5990 region....but now i hv very different mindset.


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  #628 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Re-entered long.


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  #629 (permalink)
 devdas 
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scratched........all the mental game


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  #630 (permalink)
 devdas 
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08-Jan-2013


It was game of hide and seek for me today. I would have been comfortable if i would have got a comfortable zone bar...that didnt materialize in my both trade.











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  #631 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Limited activity so far....im not seeing this as good opportunity for sell rather i think to go long on test of little demand zone from previous day
near range of 30....that will be a pullback completion on 15 min MA...let it show that way...otherwise i will just observe.


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  #632 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Some thing is different ...otherwise i would have clearly see this as MIRZ failure...and hv jumped to short


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  #633 (permalink)
 devdas 
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If i think , i lost a good shorting opportunity due to 2nd order thinking then perhaps it would be outcome biased.
But now its leaving me in indecision where to go and which factor to overweight than others.


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  #634 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Took a short with stop as 35


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  #635 (permalink)
 devdas 
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covered...no 2nd order thinking of delta divergene


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  #636 (permalink)
 devdas 
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my stat show...it most probably break high or low of day....and i m seeing this day as neutral now that can set new high....but no 2nd order thinking...


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  #637 (permalink)
 devdas 
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09-Jan-2013

Took one trade just before leaving. I was of view of rotating in value due to last day upmove that has placed price in 5 day value...and that was the reason of little biasing for Long. But i took short , somewhat forcing myself to do that, for the test of low. I was quick to cover as i had already in mind that it might just test the low. It happened so and prices got reversed with small + div on delta. After noon sell of is surprising on my thought of rotation but i can drew conclusions from new development. Thats if i am not wrong then it will trade lower -- Is'nt it every Tom, Dick and harry thinks ? So NF has nasty habit of surprising every way keeping its card till end.







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  #638 (permalink)
 devdas 
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10-Jan-2013 :
Didnt took any trade , was busy in some maintenance work in home.


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  #639 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Its very easy to see at EOD..... ...and fun too.
But i wonder why our eyes catch conter trend better than trending


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  #640 (permalink)
 devdas 
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11-Jan-2013 Took only one trade, toughest on decision due to every contradictory thoughts.

I have arranged my runtime and prework thought in some points, of which some describe context, some trending and some counter-trending virtues.


1) First attempt to throw out of acquired higher value zone is negated by bulls and price replaced in higher value. [C]

2) They should not have wasted this chance, rather going up they produced MIRZ failure. [C]

3) Despite sell-off , Excess like zone appeared. [C,CT]

4) Opening selling prints and throwing out of value again. [C,T]


above are prework ( homework ) thoughts, where C-> Context, CT -> Counter Trending ( Bullish in this case ) and T-> Trending ( Bearish ).

Its simple to understand that we have to go with "Trend" ...but is it really easy also when doing this ?

5) Price looked like developing a nascent uptrend from prior day low. [CT]

6) It behaved like gap fill exercise in opening downmove. [CT]


Following overrides finally for me,

a) Opening Bias in Opening Range is down.
b) Its below day VWAP and 5Day VWAP and seems rebounding down.
c) There is Creek down bar on 15-min Chart.


....see how i think like fader and act like mometum follower. If i had such clear cut context happening then why not i took short just near VWAPs ? ( i had login just at that time. )









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  #641 (permalink)
 devdas 
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This is very typical to NF. Down Opening in yday single prints supported shorts..





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  #642 (permalink)
 devdas 
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14-Jan-2013 : No trade taken.

15-Jan-2013 : No trade taken.

16-Jan-2013 :


It turnout to be a very confident session. Took two short. Nothing to say much about these, except that opening context provided intuitive confirmation of what is going to happen.
Though i was little shy in 2nd trade.....but i visualized this as continuation in old value.











Next, i still dont believe last hour sell-off...that might be true but it can still expense time.

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  #643 (permalink)
 devdas 
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These two days , 12-Oct-2012 and 19-Oct-2012 were most similar on Opening Context with respect to previous day upmoves. I am surprised how similar were my actions on those two days and today. Good thing is today i could better stick to impending momentum and infact less likely of thinking of Long in expectation of test of previous day high. First Long trade on both past two days could be said as whim trade or on very short term structure.


12-Oct-2012 :




19-Oct-2012 :


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  #644 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I could be very selective today. Its in middle of impending balancing activity....and dont want to play for test of low or long in
channel. Reason for this backseat is more than 50% ADR is covered in just 10% of session time.


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  #645 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Testing how good im in drawing....


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  #646 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Took a fade short @6041


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  #647 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Setting stop of 10 points now.


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  #648 (permalink)
 devdas 
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This gone little out of way....but now with -div and once pivot between them broken, its finally set for my way.


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 devdas 
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Scratched @ BE


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 devdas 
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Very classical throwing out of trade....no regret for not making money. But regreting for time consumed.
And its on the way .......


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 devdas 
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17-Jan-2013


Took a short trade that scratched for BE.

I could not recognize it well from opening , and my action turned like swimming against the stream. I had only advantage of higher selling price...otherwise with regular momentum entry a loss was sure. As long as i was in trade i never felt that im against the undercurrent , reason for this , i was seeing this as limited activity day between two demand/supply zone marked. From my regular approach i had to think for long after Creek bar and as long as it was floating above 5Day VWAP....though i scratched it onec i get nod that its not going to work. What happened after that is even more surprising and roller coaster....i cant say if it was due to some news or something else... ?






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 devdas 
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Short @ 6049 for test of low. Risk up to 6062


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 devdas 
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reduced stop to 6054


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 devdas 
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very fast...stoped out


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 devdas 
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I wanted to reduce this assymetric risk-reward trade...but didnt worked as expected.


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 devdas 
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why NF hit my stop....


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  #657 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Though i could not manage short effectively, but there were couple of other reason behind that..and one was very abstract and sometime i do overweight them intuitively.

Apart from breakdown and creek , at the location/time of my entry TPO developing value was clearly non-overlapping with previous session. Even both current price and previous day price being from different expiry on my chart ( 31-Jan prices were jan expiry and 1-Feb are Feb expiry ) i was still intuitively confident of "Value" parallel finally and that would have been possible only by developing further below VWAP.









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  #658 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I see possibility of Long with some nested 4 step.


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 devdas 
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I have to use larger stop of 20 points at this location in long...and reward will be day's high back. waiting for more unfolding...or will stay flat.


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  #660 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Took long @ 6034 with 20 point stop zone.


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 devdas 
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Cant say , im married to trade or obeying stop limit...but im trapped in long....no option other than to hold till predecided stop.


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 devdas 
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I dont do simming....but this replicate actual trade.


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 devdas 
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This is MIRZ Long trade...and i m prepared for its outcome.


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 devdas 
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A bit of irritation... ....i want to move stop higher now....but still undecided.


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 devdas 
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Scratched.


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 devdas 
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MIRZ failure trade....targetting yday's poor low.


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 devdas 
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Exited with time contraints....didnt worked fast.


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  #668 (permalink)
 devdas 
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At an interesting , worth looking location.

First on daily chart, this down creek is "nearest" to peak in comparison to last 3 down creeks and provide lower risk in this regard.
Second on weekly chart, weekly closing below 5969 will spur negative divergence short trade which is first to appear in this whole up channel since June-2012.

A "nascent sign" of failure of this short setup, might arise with tomorrow's higher opening and establishing higher value over two day's of balance....which is very typical and common to NF.









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  #669 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I am not in this drive...but looking for long entry. As it already covered 110% of ADR[5]...it would be tough to pick location. Can i expect 150% of ADR[5] = 44 Points ?



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  #670 (permalink)
 devdas 
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.....


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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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gone.


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  #673 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Back to regular.


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  #674 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Hope this dont turn like rotation...so far its behaving like MIRZ long setup.


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  #675 (permalink)
 devdas 
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scratched.


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  #676 (permalink)
 devdas 
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i weighted context over trend. Though target is a bit off from my time zone so can cut it before, if sustained


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  #677 (permalink)
 devdas 
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If i have come in morning, the bar marked would have been early short entry bar...though this is now hindsight.


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  #678 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Exited...no greed


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  #679 (permalink)
 devdas 
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The big question is - what was the context ?
Why i should overweight context over trend, when trend wins - is it ?


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 devdas 
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Visualizing MIRZ possibilities....though i will be riding anyway...as i adpt to both these possibilities...but out of my time.


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 devdas 
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Simplifying my view,

1) Don't forget Opening Bias in Opening Range.

2) Give more preference to structures where Context and Trend align.

3) Keep an eye on MIRZ failures off the 5-Day Value Extremes for larger Reward/Risk trades.

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 devdas 
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Unfolding, Unfolding....Unfolding......


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  #683 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Whats more likely.....or none.


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  #684 (permalink)
 devdas 
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This would be very poor scalp


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  #685 (permalink)
 devdas 
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No more time to follow...booked small loss.


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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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When volume comes and dumps..don't know....but so far 20 minute of holding not impressing much...


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 devdas 
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I never know how it works....exited no greed.


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 devdas 
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Had in mind this divergence might form....so raised target and exited.


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 devdas 
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But there are less reason till now to think for long.


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 devdas 
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Every thing is possible - now taught for us by every pro, but by how much chnace ?.
My abstract thought of day - How NF can repeat itself on 2nd day.
Yday it negated Opening Bias and dumped....now it seems in process ( not confirmed ) of going against Opening Bias today - what are the chances it will do in succession


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 devdas 
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Very nice....


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  #693 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Looks some thing like news...but honestly bull scared me... ...and i left my thought to short on pullback.


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 devdas 
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Poor job from my side.


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 devdas 
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waited for too much time but cant hold more. I had seen this type of basing that turns in multiday excess and market reversing completely...but cant wait for more.


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  #696 (permalink)
 devdas 
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...and the three beauty cutey......



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  #697 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Clearly a response from yday high..and on lower tf it does not smell very good. MIRZ can turn failure..but i am little biased for long.


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  #698 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I do not feel good about my stop location for this...its easy in reach.


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  #699 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I still do not liked to move stop higher...but i dont like to sell it cheap also.


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  #700 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I could have exit at better price....but np.


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