I was present since opening and was aware of continuous price probe lower and staying below VWAP. There was a favorable instant of bars around time 9:27 AM and then 9:48 AM that lure me once to put Short, but there was little hesitation due to MIRZ and being 5 Day DVAL. Rather i was waiting for Long on pullback to larger MA on 15-min. Here come the natural thought from old experience if it had to go Long way then let it come above VWAP. Being state of hold i left the screen for some time for some work. On return it was just re-probing demand zone that gave me final confidence towards Short. I have attached some similar situations from past, not all they match exactly but theme of MIRZ is most obvious in all.
Out of 506 trading days since Jan-2011, only 29 days were of a specific type....and i will surprise if this day is 30th day
If this day fail to make new high then it will be 30th day of that type since Jan-2011.
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21-Nov-2012 : At first Short i had feeling that it might not be good location either to initiate fresh short, but being synchronizing trades as per opening bias and 15-min chart trend, i could not deny from taking that. Honestly i do wanted to Long where i Shorted , but i have seriously grasped and experience that when i left trade to be proved wrong by market itself then only i could easily reverse without hesitation. Long worked like as shown and got good chunk of ADR[5] at that time.
Second Long, i could not wait more as it was already taken extending my session time, had to scratch nearly BE. I was more of tired of waiting and of poor facilitation mode of price had acquired after first hour run up.
In the event of broken Opening Bias....i decide to trade on momentum basis with reduced target expectations. Took total three trades - Long(+), Short(+) , Short(+).
A good experience day. Turned from low confidence to high confidence. Took three trades, Short ( BE ), then low expectancy Long (-) that turn small loss and then finally big bang Short(+).
23 & 26 Nov - 2012 : Two days . . Some key similarities and dissimilarities...that's why my actions were also similar but still carrying some differences.
There is absence of 3rd trade today cause today's market was slow that didn't gave much time for 3rd.
Today's development was MIRZ on higher side while 23rd took MIRZ way on lower side.
23rd's pullback on larger MA was 3rd after MA cross, while today's pullback was first on larger MA.
Both day developed near 5-day DVAH.
It was the split second decision - would you believe in trend or not ?
If i didn't, then my mind could never align with this through out the session.
It was equally tough from noob perspective...even for many Market Profile follower,
It was always fruitful to leave myself on trend.
Rather to think about counter trend scalp...its better to wait for these demand lvl to test and for re-entry. First one is most achievable...and 2nd can be used as stop on re-entry long.
27-Nov-2012 : Took only one trade, didn't get proper opportunity for second as per my view.
Most days like this have very similar pattern of developing and unfolding, that's why i was little leaned towards VWAP test a bit for second opportunity.
Some might look in for Short opportunity given the day had stretched much in ADR[5] limits and i was seeing the creek bar marked "A", if i was to broke my patience then perhaps might have reacted at that. Rather i was not in mood to take any call from either side, i become little defensive as market was unfolding at very slow pace. This was also visible from footprints chart. I also discarded to re-entry long at creek bar marked "B". One reason for this resilience was, i had passed a phase of fast movement with huge delta built-up in morning trade, so delta volume of order 50K could not infuse any charm when had seen of order 300K+ . Everything was seen as natural consolidation and i had no time to wait for it to come out of this mode.
who cares about more...i got my decent share...one has too understand how to treat each situation...
yday( 27-Nov, 28-Nov was holiday ) and today's trade were most similar on every aspect.
I will show my way of capturing this fast imbalance right from opening...but most important is self faith and trust in trend.
Some of my very old noob mistake were to think about and take these type of whim trade as its in below chart.
For someone this can be negative delta divergence setting up and they take this...its nothing wrong from their perspective in accordance with thier risk profile. But now i can clearly see these as 50:50 trades from my view for me.
I have no risk setting for this except some fixed point risk unjustified for this situation.
1) First this is , its not the situation of fade either, its really fast imbalance which will tear your 10-15 point fade stop in a shot.
2) Thinking to short this is really going against trend and taking a trade not confirmed by trend.
3) Rather to risk in fade short, same amount should be put in trend with appropriate entry that comes in span of risk.
29-Nov-2012 : Similar day as 27-Nov, this was one advantage i used to take second trade, i didn't waited fot VWAP test...rather entered with favorable MA alignment with VWAP resting under max risk limit.
Momentum is so high...natural drift gives magic....don't go against Opening Bias in Opening Range.
Simple logic is if NF goes against Opening Bias in Opening Range then either its case of reversal( OpenTest Drive ) or case of neutral type development , and VWAP comes as risk measurement structure.
30-Nov-2012 : Took two trades. There is nothing specific to first Short trade, just a momentum trade...perhaps this had advantage of overstretching of price from every scale. Though what i had expected as my target fizzle out due to vanishing momentum. This was also the reason i started thinking this day as neutral ( here i mean not exactly Neutral Type as per definition from MoM, rather a day developing symmetrically around Opening range/price with poor facilitation ) and i mentally detached from whatever was going on.
I was seeing how NF was turning up bit by bit...if i were to enter somewhere i could, but i was not in mood to react to any development. I felt myself statue.
1) Why i should enter at A ? - No concrete reason. It was just a normal creek bar in favor of larger daily upmove. Rather this development was still under VWAP, it could be short lived and restricted at VWAP.
2) Why i should/shouldn't enter at B ? - Now it was better positioned in comparison to A, completed a pullback and started heading up above VWAP. But my mind said to i might still risk against Opening bias.
What other favoring factor for A and B which i was missing that price momentum has increased little on daily basis so they could have been used for entry betting on momentum only.
3) I finally came out of statue mode near C - something echos that i am doing wrong , i am missing the trend and trade both. I just pick a reason that delta is spurting and price coming out from little consolidation and took the Long. ( a chart for 3 min FP is shown just for clear visibility of this....though i track FP on 15-min ) Definitely delta would have been building on A and B also, but being statue i was senseless for anything.
Exited short. If its going against Opening Bias ( which is bullish to neutral ) then either its reversal or neutral type development. Perhaps next trade may come late.
I am thinking , was it so easy to go Long from trend perspective ?
Or was it so easy to Short from fade perspective ?
Clearly it depends upon situation, risk measurement and synchronizing with structure.
If this is neutral structure then its headed again towards high and beyond that....but i don't remember if NF moves like that....may be possible...will take Long if i get an appropriate spot.
03-Dec-2012 : Took total three trade. First short went as expected, second short i should have left but took. After second short , it threw possibility of going up, but it didn't materialize in my Long trade and turned BE.
Overall , it seems respecting demand zone pretty much and hence might turn more clear from decision perspective. There is an another four step development ( not marked in chart ) and price seems penetrating on 2nd upper SD.
I guess tomorrow a MIRZ type trade situation can arise easily.
Took two trades Short and Long. Due to opening bias broken and opening in old value i do not wanted to take anything with in value. But felt eager to trade and took poor Short in intrabar at Trap Bar marked, corrected that and reversed for Long.
Short was clear mistake as
1) Demand Zone holding.
2) Price holding above VWAP.
I was in constant fear of failure from extremes, so was in hurry to take positions as soon as possible within balance.
Though Long spurted good.
There is basic difference in first Short trade and second Short trade.Invalid reason for first Short which were invalid for second also, but they had different risk-reward-probability equation that make failure of first but success for second.
I was rather worried in second Long trade, cause it was near the location where i had already exited first Long. It was little tough psychological decision but i left it on "trend". It didn't materialize and turned like failure that gave confidence to take Short without delay.
Best trade ( i am seeing this after EOD ) of day had developed in noon after major demand level re-test.
From channels, 6025 and 6125 might be level to test this week in event of FDI voting.
I was little confuse and impatience so far. Took Long and lost and then Short for BE.
Staying away for much more time let it go any way...im observer for time being.
I wonder how i am still holding this small losing Short...its catalyst effect under these condition...One wrong propel second and then second to third..
Already explained my psych behind today's action. I made mistakes being not waiting for proper trade situations.
I need to correct my opening view that got bugged due to ( i feel so ) some previous fast Open Drive types.
Just when i thought i will be less aggressive in opening...NF shows its aggression
I was not in the participant side...just observed....i am speechless.
07-Dec-2012 : Took two trades as per my understanding.
I remained observer towards Opening, though my friends were Short with confident and succeeded. I could easily see from their ( and mine too ) view angle how its going down but due to turbulent bug from some previous fast open drive, i felt defensive myself. Rather i was waiting for proper pullback-resume to enter Long. Long didn't worked , i exited and it just gone the way up from next bar. I felt cheated but was not disappointed. It gave me impression that bug is still playing havoc with me. But all i was trying to replicate the action which i have been taken in such MIRZ Long trade and failure situations. Short trade gone the way fast as always happened in such failures.
There might be some questions regarding this as,
1) Why i exited Long when it was well within my risk span ? Neither it broke a major pivot or some thing real structural wise .
2) Why not Short entered if i perceived to exit from Long ?
3) Why not Long re-entered on next spurt ?
4) And above all , why Short entered delayed ?
I just read @PandaWarrior and @monpere conversation about stop placement here. Panda has been inspiration factor for me( and for many ). His posts lead me to "adopt" some methodology and plan. One common trait is that i too am momentum trader most of time. Answer to all above question, and about entry/exit/stop for me depends on momentum i perceive from current structure. Actually better to say its "Discretionary execution resonated by market momentum and structure real time within my methodological framework".
Some most recent MIRZ failure actions i remember are as,
4-Dec :
20-Nov :
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11-Dec-2012 : I realized latter that failure to trade MIRZ failure was due to not believing in trend. risk reward was ok.
I think , explaining anything now, about why not participated in down move will not be honest and i fear it would be truly Outcome biased. Truth is i failed in believing that trend is changing and had changed and got out of my reach.
Day session is like Exam - it doesn't matter how well you understand before/after exam, only matter what you wrote during exam.
( I marked three points A, B and C, where it hinted that trend is changing....but.... )
12-Dec-2012 : This day was little different, might be i have not noticed in past from my point of view. I did the mistake of expectations from a potential limited activity day.
I am refraining from any justification of trades taken, my friends and i had very different views about my trades at real time, but i never felt i am doing wrong except knowing that it was slow and dull market. At some point it had to leave that zone ( that eventually it did in latter part ) and i was trying to pick the nascent trend on 3-min chart that might have potential to turn in large move on 15-min. Unluckily that didn't happened. We can count 50-50 reason for both trades , there will be 50-50 traders from both sides on these trades...and only 50 will be right. So on which side i should lean ? It really doesn't matter now what i was thinking behind these trades at live time.
17-Dec-2012 : No trade taken, infact went out early on lackluster trading prices.
18-Dec-2012 : As usual presuming morning session would be dull, so didn't bothered to login, but when i started i came to know from chart that some news might had hit, soon i got its due to RBI policy. I thought that dust is settled and this is ready for some retrace of retrace that might give me my 20 odd points objective. I had presumed that downtrend will resume. Truly, it was not blind presumption but i entered with my regular tactics.
What happened to short is visible on chart, i was lucky to got stop out, it jumped over after that.
One big Creek Bar turned complete scenario from bearish to bullish for time being - How, what , why were not the question at that time. Only urgency would have been make prepare the mind for this toppling of scenario.
I picked the two reason to ran away from session -
1) I am unable to turn for time being.
2) My time is getting over and i have to go office.
Ok, this is again very familiar, MIRZ and its success and failure are my premise. Opening bias is Neutral to Bearish from my view. I will look in both opportunities Long and Short. At this stage i cant relatively over weight one above other - cause yday lesson re-enforce that - "any thing can happen".
I was open for Long and Short both, but took what the movement threw the picture at the time. First short didn't go fast, but i had no option to hold it till stop. Fortunately my stop saved by 1 point. Unusual extended time in first short trimmed my expectations from the day and also target expectations ( which was pegged at larger MA on 15-min , pullback point ).
Then came the more pronounced situation of MIRZ failure, i rarely Add - i don't know how i get courage for this at the moment. I thought this time it will get fast down but little stalling in between again alerted me to exit at pullback point. This would have been the point of Long trade if this would have happened earlier.
After completing approx 85% of ADR[5]...its open for time consumption and making nonsense of all sort but trendiness still persist...trying another Short.
I am surprised most recent all my trades in last 2-3 days are Short in this Long biased undercurrent. Guess i am not biased for short but its more due to bearish moves in my time.
21-Dec-2012 : I thought and tried to get "wrong" behind the trades...but strangely i could not think of clue/reasons that are not Hindsight/After the fact. There are definitely objective mistake i made in selecting these trades but again at the same time i researched the instances when both these types of trades have worked independently , that again forcing me to think trades are behaving solely on 50:50 % Success:Failure ratio.
I fear of trading relapse in noob zone......
Just for referencing i am posting below chart.
1) How strong should be my sense of gauging Opening Bias in Opening range ?
2) How far should i carry that bias ?
3) How should i weight Trend Following over Counter Trending in between the developing day.
4) How could have i get rid of illusory behavior of Price-Delta divergence that worked for 1 but failed on 2nd ?
...............
...........
many more.
Waited for extended time...but could not extract more.
Today was Dec contract expiry..Jan Contract already traded approx 65 point premium on last trade. Interesting situation how it will open and behave around LTZ of 20th Dec dissipative profile which was honored already twice.
Opening bias is neutral to bullish. At this point i dont want to jump on any side ( especially short ) as i feel there is too much time left to consume...and it more looks like time consuming than straight up/down. Observing.
Never liked this slow channeling. Arrow marked is location where it hinted of MIRZ failure and i exited long...but slow moves didnt infuse any further confidence to short either.
Sometime it amaze me, how price behave in predictable manner even on such discontinuities - 27 Dec is Dec contract price and 28 Dec is Jan contract price ( there is no gap up opening ). I could not say that price is "too high" to take long on MA bulge....or how could it nicely grooved through MA pullbacks.
this is going to be interesting observation for rest of day. Out of 37 day of this( today ) type 23 survived upto first level ( 6019 for today ) and 5 survived upto second level ( 6028.6 for today ) and from all 533 trading days of tracking.
01-Jan-2013 : It looks very ugly on 3 min after completion..how exactly my counter trader has done right thing in trend following and how illusory my visual were at that time.
