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  #401 (permalink)
 devdas 
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This fits on 3rd category - Being Comfortable ( With Market structure ) but not following Trading Plan.

5-Oct-2012 : I realized latter , its not the case. Subconsciously i was still trading the plan...only difference was to choose what strategic action is best suited in that particular situation. Simply put Trading Plan includes different tactics/methodology depending on particular environment.
First trade didn't worked, though i perceived structure at A to be a final stop hunt over prior Lows. LTZ near 5740 had some significance in this context. Second trade turned better having better momentum on long side than first trade.









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  #402 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Just followed the trend for targetting 2nd SD.

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  #403 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Out from Short @ 5748

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  #404 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I think i passed enough time even for long.....taken low risk poorly looking long @ 5750.

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  #405 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Scratched @ 5750....feel its stucking in range.

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  #406 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I had correct initiation of startup trade....but following structure on short time trame , i got distracted a little. That lead me to took a scratch long. All this pile-up on my original motive of following the trend and made me little paralyze even after seeing continuous weakness further. But it was good that i didn't tried further long with revenge intention common to occur in this feel of missing out my correct trade. Though nett i still made good profit....but i surely didnt took correct decision.

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  #407 (permalink)
 devdas 
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08-Oct-2012 : With good short in hand, i was greedy and lazy to book it early. There was no confusion at the opening where its headed. Though normally i have been very quick to exit...and location A would have been my favorite exit if i had not be little lazy. A and B eluded my vision. I felt i am risking against yday low and important LTZ and now its potential case of double bottom. All this made me totally reversed my position. I do not wanted to wait for long as i was perceiving its already late to get in - mistake of being impatience. But result of this was also so obvious.

But now real mistake on context i made next. C was a development discarding A and B and it was critical time consumption in lower 2nd SD. If it had to bounce it must have gone fast just after breaking double bottom. Neither it came above VWAP nor very good creek jump. But till then i had already lost battle mentally.

Long was low risk...but i made mistake of probability assessment of its success. I will try some statistical study to avoid this in future.






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  #408 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Got a long around 5746.

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  #409 (permalink)
 devdas 
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stopped out @ 5734.

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  #410 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Took another long @5738.

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  #411 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Premise was still valid...but i realized that first long was gotta poor location.
Will hold this with initial stop of 5732...with passive trailing and target around 5768

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  #412 (permalink)
 devdas 
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09-Oct-2012 : A dramatic small profitable day. This day was most tough to me...my confidence gone from peak to trough through series of developments. I was confident of first long to be success, but it failed via stop. With second long i was even more confidence - i thought this one had better location than first - a good reason of failure of first after the fact. I had almost taken its success for granted and moved off from screen for some time. But it shattered my confidence soon. I was discarding the potential theme behind first long failure and second going the same way. I virtually cried myself "why" its not working.

There is a psychological barrier for second and subsequent trades if any in my trading. After first trade i had always considered next everything as over trading. For long i have been trading just one trade per day. Though this has gone much for second but third trade is still seems over trading me.

I could see how theme of day has already been misinterpreted by me and move below VWAP was just stratup for correct one. But i already lost my confidence and energy. Echoes of "Sell on Rise" in this scenario seemed laughing on me - how foolish i seemed to be bought near day's high/ yday VAH / Supply level. I just wanted to BE the day, and it needed a very tough push from me to sell and cover loss.








Most days develop on one or two themes as i view the day. And each theme incorporate ideally one perfect trade. Its not feasible to get one wrong trade in a theme and get one right. This way it can only Break Even. Below is the TPO diagram where i marked three themes of today. I was betting on 1 ( Low probability , High risk ) gone late on 2 ( High probability , Low risk ) and in the latter half 3rd also appeared ( Low probability , Low risk ).



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  #413 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Taken opening short @ 5697.
targeting 5680.

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  #414 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Response to the down opening was very violent...i didnt expected so fast...but now i have choice of stop @5709.

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  #415 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Now i see no choice then aggressively managing stop for this trade...@ 5704.

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  #416 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Feel this is not the only trade...exited @ 5699.

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  #417 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Negative delta again built-up...but its holding 5696... contrarian bullish sign....or either just burst down.

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  #418 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Ok gone long @5698. Last trade of day...in midst of opening response.

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  #419 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Now it should not return to 5691...if it does...then very true...not a good trade. Holding with initial stop 5691.

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  #420 (permalink)
 devdas 
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stopped out @ 5691.

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  #421 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Though i decided not to trade 3rd one...but i felt second response from 5680 to upside.
Its bouncing from lower 2nd SD if im assessing it right.



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  #422 (permalink)
 devdas 
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10-Oct-2012: A loosing day, though i managed to trade two in total loss of one .
First, Short trade got screwed in Open Auction. 14 point profit in 17 point range evaporated and i could not decide of what to do. Happens....i think from my far past memory there are several occasions where open outside range had gone the similar. Second, Long trade was not upto even plan, and reason behind this were also poor. Had the trade worked, still would be unjustified. What most i could do, to stay away after first trade on sign of open auction....but this came in vision too late.





I like to compare this day with similar day 8-Oct, just one day back. Interestingly sequence , locations and nature of trades taken on both day were same. What both longs had commons,

1) Both were counter trend on 15-min.
2) Both didn't worked.
3) Both were induced by local , short term structure.
4) Risk was low, but probability of success was also low.







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  #423 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Not trading today. Just some work here n there in home.
Though thought to explore comparison between BankNifty Future and NF @Bharatiya

From this first pic...my natural thought was BNF is leading in upward direction NF by making 1-2-3 over double bottom...though this is half glass filled and half empty type comparison.
but sure its better trending than NF. Will post more pic as they evolve.

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  #424 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Who is leader in its direction

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  #425 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Really i cant control to just buy...but no trading.

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  #426 (permalink)
 devdas 
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  #427 (permalink)
 devdas 
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..

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  #428 (permalink)
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All the best.

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  #429 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Yes sure obviously.

Though if i ever trade BNF...it will be only in isolation. No paring...just for a feeling of bias from other side. I am little concern about its spread , i dont know how it behaves. A point comparison is attractive in BNF..NF crouched just 20 points and BNF barked 60 point in that run...Right now NF seems leading upward than BNF...a sign of broader upbias.
I will check latter if its really marched.

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  #430 (permalink)
 devdas 
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yup...BNF is crazy out performer

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  #431 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Anything near 1 is upper 1st SD....and anything near 2 is upper 2nd SD.
There was one more smaller nested four step...that too seems completed with today's low.
Yday's poor facilitation and today's first half typically project possibility of new auction from excess ( today's low ).
But let it decide its own course...we are just followers of its prints.






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  #432 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Back in March 2012, i portrayed a possible visualization of Weekly chart based on how tight cluster-wise it had gone in past. It took the trajectory shape though levels/time are way inflated...but better lesson from this i missed was - If it had so erratic moves in past hence possibility of trendiness increases. Thats what its showed after that. Balance follows Imbalance , Imbalance follow Balance.






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  #433 (permalink)
 devdas 
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I see it hanged between supply and demand level very close to it. I am equally bullish and bearish both....but feel to wait for a better trigger situation.

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  #434 (permalink)
 devdas 
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A simple day with great satisfaction. Three trades with ultra confidence.
I wanted fourth to try...but my friend said just go away
I hope it was not my lucky day and fear if its outlier day in my trading.


Will post latter in weekend.



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  #435 (permalink)
 devdas 
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From friday's good performing day, today turned intuitively loosing day...though loss was limited to one max stop per trade in two trades cummulatively....but i didn't manage them very effectively....they could have been easily BE/scratched. Today's execution at one point forced me to think every thing is random....my job is to pick best winner and best looser from heap of six possible,

1) Poor Looser
2) Good Looser
3) Best Looser
4) Poor Winner
5) Good Winner
6) Best Winner

Be objective, be objective , be objective.....but there seems very thin line between Absolute right thinking ( the one and only market can do ) and Relatively right thinking ( the only we can adopt to reduce randomness ). I cant not see today's trades in isolation to Friday's trades....they had big similarities and still i loose today and profited on Friday. I know i was relatively rigid today, partly due to opening bias and partly due to being wanted to win, that were my mistake that didn't let me to act objectively still recognizing im doing wrong.

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  #436 (permalink)
 devdas 
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12-Oct-2012 Annotated how and what.











15-Oct-2012 :






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  #437 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Area of interest....a demand zone...and LTZ of dissipative profile.

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Completed two longs. First got early entry...had to scratch for small loss...was nervous though for not being proper looking pullback. Second one, had the symptoms of winner.
Context was clear, confidence was OK...but i was nervous due to Opening Bias to downside. Now Flat, no more trade for the day.

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 devdas 
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16-Oct-2012 : The day developed in two themes, i played in first. Most unjustified action from my side was at start of theme two - I just stayed away as per decided. I was as confident of fall as i was on Friday, infact they were most similar in failure types. I could not workout why the hell i am taking clues to stay away from highest odd trades -

1) I am nervous from first trade not being properly placed.
2) My time is near over its 12:54 PM, though funny i stayed till 13:17 PM
3) I have completed my day target easily.
4) I do not wanted to risk now even 6 point in third trade - why ? Just being afraid of getting BE day if got stop.

I am much disappointed from my this today's action.












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 devdas 
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This is sign of confusion...but not much...may be.
My concern with going short for 2nd SD is demand zone reactivated...so letting unfold more before attempting.

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Protected my profit on gap cover. Now Flat...

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Mean Reversion Long is attracting me with just 3-4 point risk...but i am not fully convinced for that

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 devdas 
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It was wise decision not to waste my precious mental energy in Long, now in 2nd short i expect a decent push down or BE trade near 5668. No more trade after that.

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17-Oct-2012 : Two Short trades, 2nd BE. I feel little tired...especially due to jigsaw toothed movement in 2nd profitable trade...it eventually took my precious mental energy. Lazy to annotate any thing.







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 devdas 
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It was damn tricky Short. Now showing some resilience to go down further, protecting profit. I expected a move upto yday VAL in this situation.

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I was with buyer intention from opening...but could not deny Opening bias...there are lot of things head to head if i see....now this is the buyers situation correctly...took 10 point risk from 5687

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I cant believe ....out @ 5704

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In this whole game...key point was LTZ zone from 15-Oct ,around 5690..which i had in mind since ever it gone down breaking from there.

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In just two candles from DVAL to DVAH of 5-day balance.
95% completion of ADR[5]. Its seems enough of action for today....getting away now....with next day Friday.

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Today's day session is most eye-opening learning lesson for me...it certainly added positive experience in my arsenal.
Will surely explain most about this for other learners .

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 devdas 
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18-Oct-2012 : Have most thing annotated on chart....its more for me than any one else. If i have not compared this day to 16-Oct , how and why i did those trades of 16-Oct and what i had left ( 3S on 16 Oct ) , i quickly recognize what should i do today. One thing i delayed Long entry, it could be even on 3-Min Creek, but i wanted to have little more confirmation just like let it come above VWAP.
16-Oct chart is also posted for comparison.











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Hi guys, got late due to city visit in weekend.

19-Oct-2012 : If its very predictive and repeating then only reason i see its rotating in a range. This Friday ( 19 -Oct ) over Thursday ( 18-Oct ) was very similar to previous Friday ( 12-Oct ) and Thursday ( 11-Oct) respectively. So my thought process and action were also little similar with some tweaking as the day was evolving. First Long didn't worked, quickly exited. Second Short exited near 5691 , a level hovering in my mind so many days.

I simply passed a probable Long , as its was not much on my plan , especially when i was committed and aware of whats happening as in general. This need a bit of more explanation as i thought at that moment ( when i compare this Friday to prior Friday ), why i was more confident of fourth Long ( though didn't took ) on 12-Oct and avoiding 19-Oct Third probable Long( didn't took ) ? -- Last Friday ( 12-Oct) it was developing on the Symmetrical move ( Neutral Day ) traits, but not this day, it just didn't gone to test supply.

Third Short trade didn't worked, its unlucky when i knew how everything is going and still had to exit to keep protected what i had got already. I see this as inefficient Entry though at the end of day - why i waited for creek when i have clear cut bias of going down, it could be just as close to VWAP - but just after the fact.








12-Oct is posted for reference,





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 devdas 
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Amazing session for me. Done a low confidence feeling, worst looking Long trade in secondary upmove for 16 points.

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22-Oct-2012 : I got very late due to some problem in my Lappy's HDD and some intermittent Net connection. After sorting out everything from my end, day had already performed a rally equivalent to 100% of ADR[5] and that too in just approx 2 hour of opening. There were no feeling of missing out and revenge , my emotions were fully in control, i was still upbeat and knew i had to do it right way. I have annotated most things on charts except some bit of passing out Short,

When day start like this, the best answer is - what it will do in rest of time. This was the basis of passed Short and also for that Long. I knew that Short too had very high odd of success given its location near Supply Zone 1 and 5-day DVAH, but being on bullish visual structure on 15-min, i didn't wanted to take that.
Entry location for Long was not very comfortable in psych but i was committed to do that.






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 devdas 
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Starting from top, its b-shape four step development. Same can be seen as p-shape four step development from some where bottom left corner or prior. Key point is , b-shape is more recent and equivalent to smaller time frame, so first breakout will clears the way for next higher frame imbalance. First breakout from this b-shape will have favorable development between respective 1st and 2nd SD.



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 devdas 
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I have not been so clueless in recent times...this structure infusing the feeling that i am betting for 50:50 not trading,
so waiting for better situation....or just watching before festive day.

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Took short around 5706....

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 devdas 
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Booked loss @5709.

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10 point stop for a trade in 20 point day range is really funny thing

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I am better short @ 5698.

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 devdas 
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I hv affinity to 5691...but not this time as i hv got my stop lvl defined.

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Got out at 5687.

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though i expected atleast 5683 and then 5-Day DVAL...but its showing resilience to go down further right at the moment.

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23-Oct-2012 : Any type of zig-zag slow trending condition mostly dont suit me. I put them in poor facilitation category. And this was exactly nature of my execution 3-min chart. Apart from this i had some tic-tac-toe situation over SP and i was considering both as possible..this had to be one only, but somehow it was not on my sense. So finally i decide to go with last choice - go with MA trend on 15-min. I honestly expected market to go up from Red Arrow marked, but also was aware that if it had to do that then it will show its way that way.

First Short didnt worked, i waited for some MAE bars, but one relatively large bull bar in that location forced me to exit.
Second was with better condition and confidence. I waited properly for break down.






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I was not in mood to trade on this expiry day. Suppose if i track 5 things, so out of these 3 were neutral and 2 were in support of this breakout, so not bothering much about why and how, i am holding a long since 5703, and most it will turn like failure so stop is 5694, may exit prior to that but less likely. Exit is my target point or from structure.

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Reasons are still valid....still holding with stop slightly raised @ 5698.

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Exited @ 5709. No more time to extend and wait.

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25-Oct-2012 : Dragon Day, i was lucky to came out unscratched.
I expected a trending mode, but as soon as point A and B appeared, i realize i am probably stuck in another higher congestion zone , just like one it had breakout...and it gone even poorer in second half.






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 devdas 
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Extrapolating for fun. Nearing completion and overbuilding. One more day with b-shape add may not be ruled out.



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 devdas 
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26-Oct-2012 : Dragon Day 2. I took 3 trades and got nett loss of 17 Points.


Over past 2-3 day, activities were slow due to mid week festival and Thursday being expiry of October contracts. Traders have different mood and methodologies towards these kind of day based on past experiences. Being on constant evolution process of my trading plan, i could not find any excuse to avoid trading this Friday , when i had already traded Thursday ( expiry day being considered worst day to trade ). Really market has not changed any thing much compared to Thursday. One good thing i feel, has grown in my view , i have become less bias oriented - i will see if this is the case when market turns again little trending on daily basis than current balance zone. Might be subconsciously i have got hook of one day being down, next day up...and so on repeating.

Coming to these trades. Let me first clear if the day still seen as not tradable by some traders - I was seeing everything according to my methodology , my same approach. Though noisy on 3-Min, i tried to concentrate on 15-Min.
I lost due to my two mistakes. There should have been only one losing trade, but i made extra two mistake trades.

a) I am coming late much after opening - properly not following plan.

b) Appearance of Point A make it possible to think about day's starting theme being on Short side.

c) First Short trade taken , but micro-observing made me to take it out and re-enter just after one bar as Second trade. It was silly mistake , but just happened - a poor loss. Second trade loss was good loss, not perfect loss.

b) Second mistake was to take Long trade - it was dumb reasoned trade - i thought Shorts are not working , may be undercurrent has turned to Long side. Success of this Long , could be justified on least parameter from my methodology.


Overall a good experience day, i have to compare this day with some days in past, will add more value to my trading.







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 devdas 
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It was just vanilla buy at open potential for 2nd SD

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 devdas 
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Got a deep correction....its ugly on 3-Min...but as everything developing in restricted zone so holding with appropriate stop.

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 devdas 
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some recent development call some attention....quitting long.

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 devdas 
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My experience to go against opening bias is in nascent stage....so just observing this gone Short opportunity.

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 devdas 
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In miss-out feeling i took a Short @5697

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 devdas 
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Wrong is wrong....i could have better positioned this Short....quitting @5700....making atleast day positive.

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 devdas 
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29-Oct-2012 : This was never tough for me to recognize how it will evolve, perhaps too much extrapolating on visualization is cause of this performance. Day developed in two theme. I got emotionally attached to Long, thats why acted with laziness to initiate Short, though liquidating Long was on the same basis.






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 devdas 
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 devdas 
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didn't cared anything except how to position with risk within my per trade basis.
In this high volatile event day, i might not get that on 3-min and 15-min...though its simple follow the trend situation.
For these type of days , i use a separate Work space called TVR for entry purpose. TVR stands for Time , Volume and Range - 3 basic components of trading. Every one can understand these three component behave differently depending upon market conditions and simultaneously following them is useful in various way. I do follow it occasionally to time the entry in high volatile environment. If one understand this then its clear one of these each component will emulate three different time ( sorry i think should be different term - "degree" _frame ( Degree Frame ) and often like fastest, medium and slowest frames. Which one will emulate which one is dependent on market and context but can be easily sense.
Not to say in high volatile time Volume and Range will lead, Volume was better suited with proper leading condition.









For NF traders , Volume = 200,000 Time = 3 Min and Range = 100 Ticks ( 5-Points ) is suitable settings.

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 devdas 
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Next better Short opportunity is near upper 2nd SD of development....near 5666.

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 devdas 
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30-Oct-2012 : Took only one Short trade.

I expected subsequent development as evolving Bell, but seems its taking b shape.











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 devdas 
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If anything is possible then a bounce from demand zone 5580-30 coinciding with blue channel lower TL, can make it to touch high of brown channel higher TL around 6000.



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 devdas 
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Running a Long around 5624.

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 devdas 
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If i am expecting upper 2nd SD...then it might not be easy....in this situation.
Holding with BE or let really do Creek way on 15-min with next trade.

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 devdas 
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Took 2nd Long around 5625.

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 devdas 
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Raised stop to 5623.

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 devdas 
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On a very layman basis....range should probably expand greater than current 28 point approx....so if its going up then i should expect range extension at this time on higher side.

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 devdas 
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Exited @ 5636.
Unfortunately no more time for trail.

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 devdas 
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31-Oct-2012 : Took two Long trades in poorly facilitated environment, not of my liking.

It was not the case of being getting biased for counter trend Long. It was on regular approach. Though i didn't got expected move towards 2nd SD in first Long, but i waited till it had chance to go up as long as being above VWAP.
From natural sense if every thing was in balance then what i was doing with Long could have been done with Short. This was my thought after BE first Long, so why not taking Short when it was mirroring the opposite side ?

Actually everything was developing on b shape as per my view so distance of lower 2ndSD ( short side target ) will always be lesser than distance of upper 2ndSD ( long side target ) as seen w.r.t. stopping point. So subconsciously i was leaned towards better higher reward side unless some thing really develops below lower 2ndSD as MIRZ for continuation.

Second Long i had to terminate as per my time constraints.






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 Big Mike 
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You might want to check out vvScreenshot indicator for NinjaTrader. One-click screenshot upload + share on futures.io (formerly BMT), click button and then Ctrl-V paste the bbcode for image to show up in the post.



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 devdas 
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Taking a break from trading till approx 15 Nov-2012. Have various activities and also Diwali in between. Might post if something interesting come out in between.
This break will also be utilize for review of last one and half month of my trading activity. It is more important this time compared to first review. I have to virtually pick diamonds from gems. Hope this second review will help to firmly carve my trading plan and minimize my trading.


Happy Trading.

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 devdas 
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Login late. But could not resist myself to stay away from opportunity still floating on the same thought from 2 days back. Market was still on that theme. Not to say where i would have been taken trades.

Took one Short..lost....reversed for Long...success. .... Zero Bias.

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 devdas 
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I feel it different this time. Just can be utilized for buy with days low as stop.

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 devdas 
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Easy.....got my days share.

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 devdas 
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Hi guys...finally back from festive mood and season.
Though i had decided to take a full break from trading...but honestly i traded frequently in between whenever i got time from my schedule. Is not so that i was eager to trade rather in most cases i could not found any excuse not to take a trade when opportunity sets in as per my methodology. I would not lie that i turned little selfish being consistently profitable for last 9-10 weeks, a feeling arose that i don't need any thing new... i didn't wanted to dis balance this equilibrium that has sets in my execution. More importantly i could not found yet from my second review of journal ( its not mean that its flawless ) that i could compare over inefficient periods. It simply might be a state of pause from all side, so i decided to give more time to re-investigate after some days.

Here are recent structure on daily and weekly.






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 devdas 
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Had to shift trade as per momentum....no thought...no bias.
Long(BE), Short(+) and then again Long(+).
Extracted 18 Points nett in 24 Point range so far.
From this structure i would still go long for new high.

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 devdas 
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Weakness - step by step. Next most sought target will be center line of large brown channel coinciding with MA near 5400-5425.









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 devdas 
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I do track various statistical features regularly on my instrument. This Friday was interesting from that perspective of a specific feature which came after largest gap of days in stat of last 634 days. This feature on average comes once in 10 days, but gap of 10 to 15 day were also not uncommon. 3 largest strings ever encountered are below.
Just check how NF behaved on those days.









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 devdas 
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I was very clear about what to do. Unfortunately both Long could not extract sufficient points.
First Long i had to scratch though gone with 8 Point MFE. Second trade i took off just for 5 Point due to
intermittent Net connection.
Whole structure after EOD is more interesting and clear cut for tomorrow from my view.



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 devdas 
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It was definitely interesting session for me.
Turning from waiting to get Long and avoided , finally took only one Short.
I remember a ( possibly many ) day from my past observation , where i had taken Long in same situation and then finally took Short. Today was perhaps deletion of that Long which i was trying to locate.
Will post in eve with that past day as reference.

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