I am writing today's trade in some self explanatory points.
1) Yesterday was overdone with Shorts.
2) Yesterday last hour single print spikes were due to acceptability of Value which in these situations often fails.
3) Today's Higher Opening Trade proves that its not perceiving lower value for time being, supporting point 2.
4) Prices looks like due for pullback towards larger MA on 15-min.
5) Short entries in ellipse E1 discarded cause of above points.
6) Similar structured long entry taken for test of larger MA.
7) Simultaneously prices were spending time with more than two TPO in yday value.
8) Point 8 indicates even higher target up to yday POC or next yday VAH.
9) Structure wise stop moved above.
10) Apart from reversing structure ellipse E2 shew some hectic fast activity on FP.
11) Trade could be exited in E2 itself without loosing even brokerage...or even before with regular profit.
12) But if exit would have been earlier than these in-position psychological experience would not have been in place.
13) Trade was really hold for atleast targetting yday POC near 5156, which could have come in E or G but market has to do this in its own way. Happened in K.
14) Now day developed as Neutral Center day.
This situation put me on the hold.
First im not a good fader....i never fit with max risk to fade bottom...so cant fade FP div bottom.
Second Creek Jump entry would already eat good chunk of counter trend.
Third , i will risk VWAP sellers...but when i see day's range is already near ADR, then i cant sell at VWAP.
One of my developing GSS stat throw possibility of more day's High or more day's Low.
On such bearish day it naturally inclined me to think of more day's Low ..
Honestly i wanted to take a second trade after first, but could not...some of runtime thought were as below.
1) I noticed FP div, but was not giving much importance to it, rather i wanted some structural input for reversal.
What i really missed to see live, there were two structural sign ( that i realized at EOD ) -a) A largest bull bar in downtrend , marked 1 and b) that bull bar also composed a potential 2B Bottom pattern. It was wrong to think for creek jump at that location, cause if it were to happen that way it would have more distance from bottom making more risk at that point.
2) Bar marked 2 were such possible entry that i wanted near bottom but that was my mistake , geometrically it would not be possible. Long at bar 2 , could have possible initial stop at swing low after bar 1, but that i didnt find some unique location for stop, and bottom as a stop for long at 2 , was simply beyond risk.
3) I was not biased for any side but wanted a low risk trade. After this , i started waiting for finally a test of VWAP for short. It was a channel activity, was watching on FP , delta was gyrating as the bars going updown. Bar marked 3 again took some attention. I left hope that it would test VWAP, and perhaps its on the path to go down further.
for some unknown reason i waited for one more bar , and delta spurted and huge upbar marked. This makes every thing out of scope for any type of consideration from my side , and finally quit the day.
This day gives some impression of short covering, right now only a LTZ around day's VAL 5095 seems me of some interest. Cant say how it will behave tomorrow on expiry day, but below 5095 seems obvious weakness.
I dont know, what to do...structure seen from starting point is clearly changed...i can exit near 5103 based on that...but what then my assessment of initial stop stands....?
While it is easy to say in hindsight....... I feel that since you flipped from short to long and then were stopped out and went long again.
Your decision to quit was wise - actually it was the best course of action to exit after a certain number of losing trades on any day.
However what is losing?
I felt you lost the first time (and also the second time, though it was good you did in hindsight) by setting TOO tight a stop.
Your directional bias was right on the first trade but you entered 'early' (for me). If you had entered three bars after, then there could have been a better defined logical stop placement such as above the swing high (lower-high).
Because eventually the first trade, if you had stayed in, would have not hit that logical stop, nor did it hit a breakeven stop if you would have moved it at some point and it went on to a super strong bear trend that would have netted 60+ points.
Happy trading!
Regards,
iqgod
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[I had to go out of city for office project, could not found any time to update , neither could trade today. Hope regular trading will resume from next mid week.]
Nett Result of day = -3-6 = -9 Pts after comm.
26 July was last day of July Contract. Large gap between 26 Jul and 27 Jul was partly due to overnight change in sentiment and partly ( approx 30-40 Pts ) due to change of contract in chart. I use no adjustment for any expiry....just continue with near month contract on every month expiry.
Perhaps it is first input on this journal, i felt i would be posting in vaccume forever.
Hi @iqgod, thanx for your insight in my trading. Right now i have very tight schedule of events so will discuss more good things soon, but on first part of your post. I have divided it in two parts. First is relevant for us.
This second part i am leaving, its only wishful hindsight thinking we love to come true , but not possible often.
Just imagine, if the desired fall would have started from my first trade itself, would then we call that a very good trade...
Sadly there is no place of WCS ( would, could and should ) trades.
Today's candle is first penetration in old balance. Standard expectations in these cases are first VAL ( around 5080 ) and then Balance low ( around 5030 ). Its now on market how to fulfill this. LTZ near 5180 is good reference now.
It eventually tested/respected these assessed level, with expected downside bias.
But what was my strategy with my 3-min, 15-min and TPO chart...to get some pie of this ?
I cant say this was the pitfall of my restricted trade timings or my style of executing trades with immediate momentum or my seemingly "tight" stops . I can easily see in hindsight what were my contextual mistake, but at run time i easily forget to have an eye on 10 out of 10 context points. Missing 1 context point and i get punished by a wrong trade, though small but then it blocks the space for more.
Hi,
Extended job timing is on the top priority and when you are deputy plant mgr , then also highly responsible.
Its giving me advantage of a small break and to think about formulating never planned trading plan. Its very far from even step one, but i started to look over last week's mistakes. Mistake does not mean a losing trade at all rather thinking opposite to what is most demanding in current context. I firmly understood last weekend , that it always need a top down approach, starting from Context level to Execution level. This is similar to multitime frame approach but with little more advance trick and twist.
1) Higher TimeFrame filter the Lower TimeFrame execution.
Or
2) Context filter the Execution.
This is basic first step, might be read here n there in tens of books, but ones trading plan development might take its own personalized way and shape.
I started to see last weekdays , how and when i failed or succeed. I marked some Context Point ( CP ) , these are of One or Two types ( there are always other types ) and mostly linked with some reference price level or previous context point. Some preliminary pointers to my trading emerged as,
1) I lost when i was trading in the balance ( local mostly, poor locations)
2) I succeed when i was trading in the imbalance.
3) I lost when i overlooked if market is returning towards local balance.
4) Contrary to 3) was my success.
5) I succeed when my trade timings coincides with imbalance.
These are attached meaning/assessment to CPs. (Keep in mind these CPs are of smaller level type whose scope might be overruled by a larger context point)
CP1 -> This day opening was out of previous day range and balance formed over previous some days( 12 to 20 July)
CP2 -> This day opening was pulling the prices back to previous day established value/balance.
CP3 -> This day opening was pulling the prices away from previous day established value/balance.
CP4 -> Prices establish a higher value at the end of day.
CP5 -> This day opening was pulling the prices back previous day established value/balance.
CP6 -> Prices pulled away from previous day balance and also away from lower bound of larget context point.
CP7 -> Higher opening above lower bound negates the effect of CP6.
CP8 -> No Follow-through beyond upper bound of larger context point pulled back the prices in between bounds.
CP9 -> This day opening was pulling the prices away from previous day established value/balance and exaggerating the CP7 effect.
CP10 -> Prices further pulled away from day's local balance and away from larger context point.
Here Larger context point is the penetration of previous balance by 23-July Profile as discussed earlier.
I feel a bit sleepy....had to write about 30th july...but leaving just posting images.
Short summary :
1) Though i cant say how i would have traded this...Off market and On market feelings would be totally different but i have marked my cherry picked mistakes if i would have been so stub-born dumb
2) Context can filter every execution.
3) Higher Time frame( 15-min ) can filter lower time ( 3-min ) frame execution.
Since last 3 -4 days NF is steadily regaining its lost trendiness, it had some initial sign of such next course after poor facilitated composite ( 29 Jun - 11 July ). These are dream moves for traders...swing every move just with a couple of MA.
Today's opening and further test of upper bound signifies 5180 zone, i feel opening zone 5240 as an early stopping point if it really so then symmetrical move can push NF to as high as 5310.
Apart from this, old composite ( 29 Jun - 11 July ) is still hanging with its poor facilitation, but this time trendiness of NF giving impression that it might not spend much time in this zone. In other word it might easily pass through this and beyond its high. Here 5280 ( VAL ) and 5325 ( VAH ) are levels to watch for any such possibility.
Today's profile can be seen as natural halt in trend, but there are some finer points inside it, that are worth looking for gauging its mood for next step.
There is a JPS four step development ( marked with two double headed arrows plus rectangle ) on smaller scale ( one that i have discussed yesterday is on little larger scale and still possibly in 3rd stage ) , and then NF tried to break upside but No Follow through happened. If this is the case then i see possible target zone 1 and target zone 2 for this whole small episode.
I will try to trade this scenario if falls in my trade timing.
Had a Short with 2 lots @ 5236.
Its shying to pass through target zone 1.
Exiting one near 5225. For second i think to hold with partial negation of scenario...thats taking out day's high 5248.
Today was a good day in a sense that it helped a little in understanding how should i see a particular trade contextually. I am not in hurry to conclude anything about that, but perhaps it is the piece of puzzle which i was missing. Not going in much detail about that, just marked three mistakes, first a trade visualization mistake and other two execution mistakes.
One of the reason i was holding position 2 such long time, i was of view that today we might get better range extension and greater range than previous day. But this was good as long as it didnt turn other way - another balance small range day.
Overnight change in sentiment met the previous targets....but of no use in my way.
Now im seeing this as original four step development, as discussed in post #223.
Though i clearly see direction to take as Long.... waiting for some thing unknown. Bulge development is holding me to jump for long....and i dont like to short at this structure unless something coincides familiarly.
Since last 3 -4 days NF is steadily regaining its lost trendiness, it had some initial sign of such next course after poor facilitated composite ( 29 Jun - 11 July ). These are dream moves for traders...swing …
2) Current day profile is now pegged between POC( 5310 ) and VAL ( 5280 ) of old composite
standard expectation from this situation are to go upto VAH (5325 ) and then composite high ( approx 5370 ).
3) Current Day seems exhibiting No Follow through over current day development, so this can push down NF for time being.
In current context NF seems again changing its intraday development type - Balance + Small Imbalances from intra-balances. This is opposite to expected fast trend moves. So i feel unexpected behavior and any thing could be easily violated. As long as 5240 is rejected from now, uptrend can be maintained.
My nose got some rainy infection last night. It is painful experience with swelling that dont let do anything with comfort. But a trader cant never remain away from screen so long. At my login, i was disappointed with structure that was at that time. Good thing was , it negated NoFollow thru of yday and opening has taken price away from yday balance. That was easy assessment of direction - Long, but not blindly neither at that price. I decided to wait for some dip, or down to test of VWAP. It was the time of candle marked at 2. For a moment i thought to Short at some price 5332+ , after all if i was expecting a dip to VWAP then why not to enter early short. I was aware of the candle marked 1 , which was successful penetration of R2 ( 5324 ) and next target would have been R3 ( 5340 ). So short at 5332+ was within max risk. Also there were some toppling of delta through out channel that i was thinking in support of short. But contrarily i thought , what would have been the result of those opportunistic short made throughout the channel ? All would have been hanged though they might be in risk limit. Indirectly Short at candle 2 could have been ordinary, no unique. And neither it was on my standard entry type. All this let me to step back and finally wait for pullback to enter long.
But soon after that my ADSL line got disturb leaving me with no internet connection.
It was easy assessment at the time of my start that stopping point S has formed yday and A, B , C have possible nodes of this development. It was just above MA after point C and possible 2nd SD corresponding to A ( it is more art than science which tells A was lower 2nd SD ) comes nearly 5387 (roughly estimated as 5385 ). So was the basis and targets for first long. But what i was expecting from CD leg happened in EF....np market do everything in its own way. Too much holding period ( approx 50 min ) made me irritated and scratched the long. Second short trade was taken for obvious target of 5343 approx, but NF just started reversing delta in between , so had to quit at 5353.
Once again near excess, but with seemingly different energy - In July it was old and matured and in August its fresh.
Does not sounds - Dont Short Me ?
Just watching. Seems some news @ 11 AM....increased the bar ranges and overlap significantly on 3-min.
Though hindsight bias seems down and some hindsight short entries were also present before this start, but what i dont like is bar ranges on 3-min ( 5.44 ) and overlap ( 3.44 ) and bar ranges on 15-min ( 11.4 ). This situation is like taking a trade on 3-min with risk equivalent to 15-min chart.
Purely on 15 min i can capture better trade with risk compromise.
This day and trades taken were little similar with yday...both were developing similar way so not much surprise.
Initially i thought to stay away , as it was near middle of yday balance and overlapping bars were of not my liking , but after some wait i jumped for it. This could be termed as violation of my "would be" future trading plan that might include to keep a sting nose towards balancing structures.
Today i felt, Stop and Exit are two faces of a Coin. They have some generic similarities and yet demands different mindset to placement which decides the fate of trade. If i feel Yang characteristic for Stop( be alerted , active ) then Yin describe Exit ( remain idle, wait, steady ). But sometime they behave oppositely. Perhaps their characteristic much depends upon time and location. Its hard puzzle at this time but if it has arose this time in this way for me then guess its solution is also preparing in near future.
After my Long( 5368 ), price rejected first time from 5372/73...it was normal to expect. It stalled a little and then bar marked 1 start forming. It shoots to 5372 that was the instance i finally decided to put stop at 5363. But it slumped back - now this was really not good and alarming. It made rectangle B just as A which was basis of my Long. If A prefer Long then B prefer Short. At most i could exit at bar marked 2( opposite standard entry ) but i got stub with my decided stop of 5363.
Second trade short was taken with some recovery mentality - "why i took a trade at first place when i can see it is in balance" type. And hence only took some impatient profit.
I see possibility of two scenarios.
One is obviously holding of "Test" Point ( approx 5330 lvl ) which formed after test of LTZ1 and rejection from local balance center point. This is obviously seen as bullish as long as "Test" Point is not blown.
Second i contrarily see as four step development , which has not yet formed lower 2nD SD point falling in Target Zone 1 , approx 5300 lvl. Below "Test" point of first scenario i see this second scenario to be validated having Target zone as shown.
This was again a development inside yday balance when i started. But given my available time, i try to take whatever market makes at the time....even if its developing in just 18 point range.
Yes, i made two opportunity mistake in first short trade - one it was little late by 2-3 bars and second it need to quit near 5330. Its not hindsight , i was aware of it very well, but i was of view for continuation after small pullback.
Formation style of pullback point 1 was not good for my short, but still i took it as final exit point. I was still holding, even knowing this trade has changed its track and flowing in different stream.
After stopping out short, formation 3,4 and 5 in conjunction to rejections 1 and 2, threw a picture of short squeeze. Though i had little time to execute , but pace of movements put me in confidence that it will get up fast within 2-3 bars. But it reversed, forcing me to quit.
This day i had decided not to take entry like previous some days as most of them were coinciding with prior day balances and near VWAP. It might have looked like different entry mechanism on 3-min chart, but i was making it like pullback near 15 min chart. Added positive it had near reference zone well established in structure. All this make look like fading the day's Low. This had no choice for a structural stop except i decided a fix one. Cause it was still developing in balance so i had a mental exit near VWAP, which i executed as reached.
Now think and see for a moment. Dont see what happened after bar marked 3. This is something like "Relativity" aspect of Entry, Stop and Exits. Seeing this trade , standing beyond right side of bar 3 is just similar to Illusory Validity of Subjective TA ( Read in book , Evidence Based Technical Analysis ).
But from a pure execution based on my entry types, i had shut my eyes on 1, 2 and 3
Normally it would have respected upper balance low zone 5396-94, but its filling single prints. This implies that it might revisit/test lower balance. But zigzag structure on 3-min making me to restrict any short. I feel it rebound from any less important level. Observing.
Only event happened , it filled single print of previous double distribution. This is indication of change of situation, bulls should not have let this happen. Now standard expectations deduce , after 5370 there will be scope for further down to 5330.
Should i see , subtracting all yday action ....making 14 Aug and today side by side ?
70% of ADR covered in first hour. Waiting for some more different familiar situations than this.
Its long weekend including Monday's festive close. From tuesday , my timing might change ( yet to be confirmed ) from market opening to 11:30 AM. Its total change from previous availability. That too i dont like due to establishment of Initial Balance. From the last one year of my trading pattern and from understanding of instrument's nature - I feel better timing for me to trade are from 12:30 PM to market close.
Ok, this structure is little incomplete/complicated or say yet to be in process. After a possible stopping point, it is yet not got any 2nd SD point on either side. Visually zone 1 looks like lower 2nd SD, but nature of prices in this zone dont match to characteristics of SP. Rather zone 2 , where prices has traded before SP make some sense of virtual lower 2nd SD.
In between, after failure sell-off, zone D has emerge as strong demand level. Right now this structure make possibility of both 2nd SD level coming one after other, with tilted odds towards higher 2nd SD zone 3.
Harvest The Moon Nest The Market
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This is part of my GSS.
Not exactly like day types...neither replicating directional move study.
Its based on study of 404 trading days starting 1-1-2011 ( yet to backfill 2010 ).
Upper first two types of days comprise of dream moves -
a) Breakout and full day range cover in single stroke of MA crossover.
b) Single stroke trend of MA crossover like trend days.
Very hard to stalk the "Rest" , but real Edge is in it.
Ok...it was running as expected.
Direction to take was long....after IB, i had to trigger some where Long.
Only usual poor thing it did, it covered 60% of ADR in just first 45 min. That was easy to understand its again going to slump for some time. So i didnt waited for standard entry...rather entry itself was to "get low". So got long near low of arrow marked bar. It continued for more than 110 minute and finally taking my patience and time, got out at BE.
Its down opening , M period spike might come in Short action again.
But my preferred direction is still long...waiting for things to align properly in my way.
Another nascent structure i see is four steps with yday high as stopping point. So some thing like balance structure may evolve.
Harvest The Moon Nest The Market
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