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T For Trading
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T For Trading

  #221 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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You flipped your stance twice

Hi devdas,

While it is easy to say in hindsight....... I feel that since you flipped from short to long and then were stopped out and went long again.

Your decision to quit was wise - actually it was the best course of action to exit after a certain number of losing trades on any day.

However what is losing?

I felt you lost the first time (and also the second time, though it was good you did in hindsight) by setting TOO tight a stop.

Your directional bias was right on the first trade but you entered 'early' (for me). If you had entered three bars after, then there could have been a better defined logical stop placement such as above the swing high (lower-high).

Because eventually the first trade, if you had stayed in, would have not hit that logical stop, nor did it hit a breakeven stop if you would have moved it at some point and it went on to a super strong bear trend that would have netted 60+ points.

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Happy trading!

Regards,
iqgod

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  #222 (permalink)
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26-Jul-2012

[I had to go out of city for office project, could not found any time to update , neither could trade today. Hope regular trading will resume from next mid week.]

Nett Result of day = -3-6 = -9 Pts after comm.


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26 July was last day of July Contract. Large gap between 26 Jul and 27 Jul was partly due to overnight change in sentiment and partly ( approx 30-40 Pts ) due to change of contract in chart. I use no adjustment for any expiry....just continue with near month contract on every month expiry.


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  #223 (permalink)
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Perhaps it is first input on this journal, i felt i would be posting in vaccume forever.

Hi @iqgod, thanx for your insight in my trading. Right now i have very tight schedule of events so will discuss more good things soon, but on first part of your post. I have divided it in two parts. First is relevant for us.


iqgod View Post
Hi devdas,

While it is easy to say in hindsight....... I feel that since you flipped from short to long and then were stopped out and went long again.

Your decision to quit was wise - actually it was the best course of action to exit after a certain number of losing trades on any day.

However what is losing?

I felt you lost the first time (and also the second time, though it was good you did in hindsight) by setting TOO tight a stop.



This second part i am leaving, its only wishful hindsight thinking we love to come true , but not possible often.
Just imagine, if the desired fall would have started from my first trade itself, would then we call that a very good trade...
Sadly there is no place of WCS ( would, could and should ) trades.


iqgod View Post

Your directional bias was right on the first trade but you entered 'early' (for me). If you had entered three bars after, then there could have been a better defined logical stop placement such as above the swing high (lower-high).

Because eventually the first trade, if you had stayed in, would have not hit that logical stop, nor did it hit a breakeven stop if you would have moved it at some point and it went on to a super strong bear trend that would have netted 60+ points.

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Happy trading!

Regards,
iqgod


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Nest The Market
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  #224 (permalink)
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devdas View Post
Today's candle is first penetration in old balance. Standard expectations in these cases are first VAL ( around 5080 ) and then Balance low ( around 5030 ). Its now on market how to fulfill this. LTZ near 5180 is good reference now.


This was assessment on start of this week on monday 23-July.

https://futures.io/trading-journals/20798-t-trading-20.html#post243609


It eventually tested/respected these assessed level, with expected downside bias.
But what was my strategy with my 3-min, 15-min and TPO chart...to get some pie of this ?
I cant say this was the pitfall of my restricted trade timings or my style of executing trades with immediate momentum or my seemingly "tight" stops . I can easily see in hindsight what were my contextual mistake, but at run time i easily forget to have an eye on 10 out of 10 context points. Missing 1 context point and i get punished by a wrong trade, though small but then it blocks the space for more.


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  #225 (permalink)
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Hi,
Extended job timing is on the top priority and when you are deputy plant mgr , then also highly responsible.
Its giving me advantage of a small break and to think about formulating never planned trading plan. Its very far from even step one, but i started to look over last week's mistakes. Mistake does not mean a losing trade at all rather thinking opposite to what is most demanding in current context. I firmly understood last weekend , that it always need a top down approach, starting from Context level to Execution level. This is similar to multitime frame approach but with little more advance trick and twist.

1) Higher TimeFrame filter the Lower TimeFrame execution.

Or

2) Context filter the Execution.

This is basic first step, might be read here n there in tens of books, but ones trading plan development might take its own personalized way and shape.

I started to see last weekdays , how and when i failed or succeed. I marked some Context Point ( CP ) , these are of One or Two types ( there are always other types ) and mostly linked with some reference price level or previous context point. Some preliminary pointers to my trading emerged as,

1) I lost when i was trading in the balance ( local mostly, poor locations)
2) I succeed when i was trading in the imbalance.
3) I lost when i overlooked if market is returning towards local balance.
4) Contrary to 3) was my success.
5) I succeed when my trade timings coincides with imbalance.


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These are attached meaning/assessment to CPs. (Keep in mind these CPs are of smaller level type whose scope might be overruled by a larger context point)

CP1 -> This day opening was out of previous day range and balance formed over previous some days( 12 to 20 July)
CP2 -> This day opening was pulling the prices back to previous day established value/balance.
CP3 -> This day opening was pulling the prices away from previous day established value/balance.
CP4 -> Prices establish a higher value at the end of day.
CP5 -> This day opening was pulling the prices back previous day established value/balance.
CP6 -> Prices pulled away from previous day balance and also away from lower bound of larget context point.
CP7 -> Higher opening above lower bound negates the effect of CP6.
CP8 -> No Follow-through beyond upper bound of larger context point pulled back the prices in between bounds.
CP9 -> This day opening was pulling the prices away from previous day established value/balance and exaggerating the CP7 effect.
CP10 -> Prices further pulled away from day's local balance and away from larger context point.


Here Larger context point is the penetration of previous balance by 23-July Profile as discussed earlier.

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Last edited by devdas; July 30th, 2012 at 05:36 PM.
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  #226 (permalink)
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I feel a bit sleepy....had to write about 30th july...but leaving just posting images.

Short summary :

1) Though i cant say how i would have traded this...Off market and On market feelings would be totally different but i have marked my cherry picked mistakes if i would have been so stub-born dumb
2) Context can filter every execution.
3) Higher Time frame( 15-min ) can filter lower time ( 3-min ) frame execution.


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  #227 (permalink)
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[ 1 or 2 more days to resume trading. ]

Since last 3 -4 days NF is steadily regaining its lost trendiness, it had some initial sign of such next course after poor facilitated composite ( 29 Jun - 11 July ). These are dream moves for traders...swing every move just with a couple of MA.

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Today's opening and further test of upper bound signifies 5180 zone, i feel opening zone 5240 as an early stopping point if it really so then symmetrical move can push NF to as high as 5310.


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Apart from this, old composite ( 29 Jun - 11 July ) is still hanging with its poor facilitation, but this time trendiness of NF giving impression that it might not spend much time in this zone. In other word it might easily pass through this and beyond its high. Here 5280 ( VAL ) and 5325 ( VAH ) are levels to watch for any such possibility.

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  #228 (permalink)
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Today's profile can be seen as natural halt in trend, but there are some finer points inside it, that are worth looking for gauging its mood for next step.


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There is a JPS four step development ( marked with two double headed arrows plus rectangle ) on smaller scale ( one that i have discussed yesterday is on little larger scale and still possibly in 3rd stage ) , and then NF tried to break upside but No Follow through happened. If this is the case then i see possible target zone 1 and target zone 2 for this whole small episode.

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I will try to trade this scenario if falls in my trade timing.

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  #229 (permalink)
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Had a Short with 2 lots @ 5236.
Its shying to pass through target zone 1.
Exiting one near 5225. For second i think to hold with partial negation of scenario...thats taking out day's high 5248.

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T For Trading-nifty_i-15-min-8_2_2012.png  

Last edited by devdas; August 2nd, 2012 at 03:10 AM. Reason: Scenario is valid till yesterday high taken out.
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A very slow down move.

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