Today's action is fallback in balance. I think its better to term as penetration of Poor Highs rather than Failure or No-Follow-Through....sellers got a better price. Now overall symmetrical move is projecting as 5247 level approx for completing the first hand symmetry. Letc see how it gives trade opportunity tomorrow.
Short came just at my start...could not post in time.
2 Lot Short initiated @ 5315. One squred @ 5304.
Second holding for YPOC tgt + gap fill @ 5292 with stop @ 5317
I have a feeling of upside breakout today. Getting away with my maximum stop in this 2nd trade...if it got stop maximum daily loss will also be achieved. Dont know when breakout will happen.
There are definitely points need to give some assessment ,
1) Why i had a feeling of upside breakout, even seeing some local bearishness on chart.
2) This expected breakout was not sought from local balance/range.
3) Why 5297 was chosen as stop for 2nd long.
Though i dont see it...but after first long stop out , i curiously watched what is happening in this local range. Today it looked like perfect , but not often. I continued to discard this along with some other bearish signs.
Result of restricted timing. Its ok. Though i had placed initial stop @ 5304 before temporarily going away...but before finally leaving i had to quit it. I didnt wanted to let market repeat yday
I get educational email from Online Trading Academy ( many would have read this ). Last email dt 3-Jul, then discussed an article on one easy way of assessment cum confirmation of Supply and Demand ( they mostly emphasize on Supply/Demand rather synonyms S/R...its similar to who came first egg or hen... ) zone. They affirms Pivot Point as one such tool if which coincides with natural market structure then its of more importance in respect of Supply and Demand. This LTZ and Pivot are playing this role in current context.
Have to leave for office. It does not make sence to me to take entry @5318...and putting max stop around LTZ 5330...cause i cant pinpoint stop with 1-2 pts. So took equivalent position with 5300 PE @ 74.5 which is in respect of larger picture and target...and perhaps will carry over weekend.
Nett Result of day = -3 + (MtoM Loss on Open Position on 2 lot 5300 PE = -20 ) = -23 Pts after comm.
After many months today i carried a positional trade. Though i had choice to close it @ BE but it was my decision not to do so. I called broker online support to check my position around 14:30 PM. I was sure to have my position in profits with market going down...but as they told it didn't broke morning low and currently trading around 5315 after making high of approx 5340, it was disappointing for me. Pain was, it seemed me still in larger balance , which i had thought to be retraced downside after my entry. As PE were trading @ 75 , i had choice at the time to square-off but i decided to carry over weekend and leaved them.
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A small local balance is formed between two LTZ....they are decisive for next action. E2 seems on symmetry with E1...on larger balance. Both have little similarity on Footprints, but i consider this an obvious symptoms. If larger trend on daily which is currently up, make some bearings now, possibly an opening rejection to upside, from around 5251 level may result. 5251 level is in symmetry with today's "K" period high. These are my personal assessment, might go totally wrong or different.
this might be the case of parallel profile...but if it trend day...then a test of vwap , coupled with DPOC plus a deep pullback to larger MA on 15 min is due for 5297-99.
It was very limited time session...had to turn to some work in home after first trade. When i returned before leaving for office...it has passed much of consolidation. I was interested in pullback to larger MA on 15-min...but was also aware of larger context that was up. Add to this, not-so-solid ground for pullback, were previous dips from swing peaks, which were just 10-12 point...so left entry after Bar 1 cause its making 50:50 R:R to VWAP. As i already explained im not a very good fader...so breakout/continuation entry eats good chunk of move. I thought i wont enter but just for screen experience time, i started to watch Footprints ...and bar marked 2-5 were a rise without volume/delta on ladders. For a moment , i was just to enter short as a fade to upper end of range..that would have been a better R:R but left that too. Bar marked 6, was also a similar breakout/continuation entry as Bar marked 1.
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risk i was taking as opening drive and target as yday discussed rectangular region around 5352...but didnt worked as expected...scratched with small loss.
Expected move to 5352 came in dramatic way. Though i have started the day early and waited to an extent when i feel i have passed enough chop and now its ready to eat...but it took another hour+ to turbulent and go out of order. I was sure to get 5352, but when it was the question we all face everyday.
Thats developed as Neutral Day....almost balanced....and between two HVNs.
Tomorrow is multi-event day perhaps i will be observer.
Though i had to sit calm...when i was seeing information from outside my regular execution style...but i was feeling miss out from early short....so took late short with mixed mind. Tag 3.
There was much more behind this week, i might explain perhaps tomorrow.
Lets first have some thought on current market structure. Last week ( 2 Jul - 6 Jul ) and this week ( 9 Jul - 13 Jul ) were two relatively small range weeks , where most of days have a bell shape balanced part in their profile. That simply means every day had a relatively small range of 15-25 points plus a intraday imbalance somewhere between the day which completes the day and matches to running ADR of 55-60 points. My fellow trader trading Nifty Future might agree that it is a ADR value which falls in lower part of ADR distribution for this NF absolute value of 5000+. NF has mostly runs in ADR ranges of 60-90 which can be seen as fair ADR most of time. Add to this some last week have fallen in low ADR ranges and often traders say most good moves ( more vertical ) comes in second half of day. This might be true to some extent, and perhaps this might be an excuse if i would have been trading 3 year back, my mentality would have been exactly same that..its hard to trade a low range balance of 20 points.
But now after involving actively since 2-3 years , when i see my 3-min chart in this low range part...i cant take excuse that its not tradeable...or there were no good trade signals. After all a small trade in small time frame turns runner expanding to large range in large timeframe. Its our inability to look in that way. Our timing for that is critical , that i agree completely.
Some time i thought i should make a study to compare the days range in different part, but postpone always , mainly because i already have many studies running parallel as a junk projects..and have no time for more. And i believe market averages every action on long run...so no chasing for a particular temporary phenomenon.
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was late and saw quick opportunity for short so could not post in time...though its complete for time being.
This is how its behaving right on the line, why bulls are easily throwing their gems.
I posted this particular instance just for more clarity of Opening which on still chart is fallacy for the day. There is one freak/bad tick of small volume at opening near price 5176...but then next ticks are accountable in regular zone of 5240. This might give impression of strong Open Drive but in reality its not. What more important is that it reacted bearishly from friday's LTZ....and its now a confirmed reference level further for intraday atleast.
Only unusual action in this day happened , prices went past friday's LTZ and didn't sustained above that.
Why i emphasize much on such LTZ ? They are simply a form of Imbalance , not only on profile structure term but also from Supply-Demand perspective. My first assessment goes on penetration of these LTZ and subsequent time consumption near these zone - original implication of this zone is changing from one side to other. What was original implication of this zone in current context ? - Bears were successful in maintaining the price below this line in end of auction on Friday. Validity of this was rejection of "A" period high today. Revisit and penetration of this LTZ again in "G" was an attempt, which was a bullish action by any means at the time. But that unusual happened after that and it resumed down move from their. Np we have to accept every move market make as right.
Despite local bearishness , second trade i took was long, infact it was my best architect-ed trade based on what was happening at the time. I cant write/document every feeling behind that, im simply lazy to do that.
Market gave better trade opportunities today. It was more vertical movements than horizontal tight balance type.
Trend-trend...rather breakout-trend.
Below is daily chart...candles definitely now panning out good for bulls.
I have divided the post in two part 1) Basis 2) Execution.
1) A big gap up opening ( though looking like rejection at open ) placed the price back in yday Value, hence my first assessment, despite i being a breakout/continuation trader , turned towards balancing activity. I had to initiate trade near yday references, whichever comes first -either YVAH or YVAL. But also had in mind that i cant fade at sharp ticks without a bit of confirmation. So as confirmatory tool i opened the 15min FP chart alongwith 3min/15min regular chart.
2)
Just after deciding and starting the day, a breakdown entry bar appeared , it was a Short trade which in normal course i might have taken...but now it was out of decided plan. I hv marked TPO periods around 3min candles for better visual. First long( @5224) was taken after probing and retracing backup from YVAL 5220, and also on favorable E2 delta. Second long ( @ 5222 ) as an add, was in middle of F1. First delta inversion from max negative to mark-able positive in F1 gave me impression that my long is right and i decided to add. But Second delta inversion in F1 from max positive to half of max was alarming for me. I could clearly feel the twice rejection from 5226/27. But i was not totally depend on these micro development on FP....they could be easily flushed out in single volume stroke. I was using them as confirmatory tools with my structure reading. Thats why delayed the exit till a big down bar appeared in F2 with negative delta building right from opening of F2.
Price making new low was a puzzling piece at the time, i felt i scope-out Short , and perhaps Long was not timed.
And on G1 developing , with one more delta inversion inside it , it looks like now its a delta divergence E1-G1....i should make another try with 3rd long. Ah...i was caught trading against trend. Quit the 3rd long also on negative delta buildup in G2.
So what was Bottom Line :
Do not trade against trend ? No
Do not fade the Value extremes ? No
Understand how market had changed its nature from Tight balance type to Trend-trend type since fag end of last week. Yes
I love drawing, design and developments. Two days back @websouth posted nice charts with SMAs.
I was due to use Fat Tails OR , Volatility Bands etc after i upgraded to NT 9. So a nice looking template arose from these.
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Ok what its done right now...based on that its putting me on hold.
I feel its in middle of forthcoming development. Anything near 5230 is cheap and 5280 seems expensive.
It changed every thing.
I am on hold with what to take. Both way risk is natural. I dont want to short @local balance center risking VWAP...neither it make sense me to long risking day's low. Especially what i perceive now...downside is open more for pullback low 5194 and then 5181 VAL of 18-Jul.
I have to temporarily omit the 19-jul session...and have to see 18 and 20 side by side. whatever marked day before yday for rectangle, ltz and pullback are now for play i think.
I feel it made me off-tracked with too much defensive thinking.
Im restricting with this with full stop in this long unless structure calls me to quit before that.
I didnt updated this Short , just cause it was little psychologically tough and need concentration to execute today this when i got biased for cheap Long on start.
I was only trying to locate some excuse to go Long..L1 and L2 and some crappy divergence on FP....everything i wanted to work like that...down opening near completion of ATR...everything was so forcefully pushing me to think only Long. But on contrast i often remain aware of such things which looks promising and very natural dont work the way they should, and the work that looks very tough psychologically. So executed this small Short. Bar 1 formed, it was nearly good Short entry...but i still waited...i could wait easily cause i was not keen to take Short . Just one bar later Bar 2 formed and it was more better than 1...
I compare my Friday's Short , which i had to scratch for small loss, with today's Short. Though it cant be compared as simply black and white, but still i was pondering why first failed and today's worked.
1) Both were taken after substantial completion of ATR.
2) Both were same as per time.
3) Both dragged MAs such that a pending pullback were due towards larger MA. And friday got pulled really towards MA but today's went as expected.
What i see big difference in the two is overall location with respect to larger picture. Friday action was though on verge of getting imbalance but close to previous developed regions so prices got easily pulled towards that, but today's action got more towards imbalance and away from developed region , that was cause of success of today's Short.. IMO.
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Was relatively late today at start.
At the EOD, i noticed a four step nice progression..its uncommon for me to see this in such small scale of 3 min, im sure this will help in future now to distinguish climax and continuation. There was also one more small one, prior and overlapping to my trade timing. I have a simple ( not always easy and correct ) rule to detect continuation in 4th step, that it start consuming time in one of 2nd SD of 3rd step.
There are another interesting development on larger scale worth monitoring...perhaps might post in sometime.
Today's candle is first penetration in old balance. Standard expectations in these cases are first VAL ( around 5080 ) and then Balance low ( around 5030 ). Its now on market how to fulfill this. LTZ near 5180 is good reference now.
I have a Long running since 5134. This is architect-ed on some situation filtered from last day's action...so not in hurry to get out...rather holding with some structural stop near/sub 5130 level. will discuss later.
Once again today's opening start with one single poor tick @ 5112....which is giving false visual of strong Open Drive.
Regular next ticks start around 5132 lvl.
....some of B, C and D are heavily negative....last continuation is netting positive. 
