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T For Trading
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T For Trading

  #1051 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
I received notification that my name popped up.

Are you interested in comment? Or would that be a distraction?

Not at all. I can extract constructive aspect even from distraction.

Please go through.

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  #1052 (permalink)
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devdas View Post
Not at all. I can extract constructive aspect even from distraction.

Please go through.

Not everyone is going to study the SLA/AMT thoroughly before playing with it. However, it may not be self-evident that there are no wasted words in it; everything counts. This can lead to false starts and false impressions.

To begin at the beginning, one must start with the weekly trend. Many people skip this because they don't see the point to it. However, if one skips this step, the rest of it is left hanging, and the probabilities for successful trades become less and less as the "opportunities" appear to arrive.

I don't know this instrument and haven't characterized it, but in the segment you've provided -- even though it's a daily trend -- the instrument appears to be mean-reverting (if it isn't, then the difficulties begin).

If that is the case, and this is no more than a hypothesis, the trend and channel are as follows:

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The SLA and AMT work together, but not necessarily simultaneously. Once you have your channel, your "call to action" comes when price exits this channel. Whether you are there to take advantage of it isn't critical as subsequent opportunities will arise.

But assuming that you are there at the time, you see that though price dipped back into the channel, it rebounded nicely. And at this point, the SLA takes over (think of it as AMT handing the baton to the SLA). What matters now is whether or not price can make a higher high, confirming the retracement. It does, which enables you to draw a demand line. This line is broken, but whether you exit or not depends on the tactics you have in place: price came back a little more than half for this segment, but nowhere near that much for the earlier beginning of the move at 7900. If you know this well, you may be more likely to let it go than if you don't know it well, in which case you'd be more likely to exit the trade (which is one important advantage of characterizing your instrument). Assuming you stay with it, the tentative retracement is confirmed by a higher high.

As you posted an hourly, though, I assume that you'd be using this to enter and not the daily. Again, where you enter depends on whether or not you are there at the time the opportunity presents itself. If you're not, then the odds of being stopped out increase the longer you wait to enter.

These are the first opportunities to enter after price pokes through the top of that daily trend channel on the 29th:

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Most of the lines you had drawn were unnecessary. The least amount of information one needs to make a decision is preferable to an information overload. In this case, if you've taken the retracement on the 13th after the break of the supply line, you needn't do anything else once it's confirmed other than track it. As for whether or not the retracement should be taken at all, it's worth noting that it occurs just at or just above the halfway level of the previous upmove, at 8375. This shifts the odds of a successful entry just slightly more in your favor.

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  #1053 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
To begin at the beginning, one must start with the weekly trend. Many people skip this because they don't see the point to it. However, if one skips this step, the rest of it is left hanging, and the probabilities for successful trades become less and less as the "opportunities" appear to arrive.

I had all three chart weekly , daily and hourly on my workspace, but intentionally didnt posted as its implication to me were clear. Though here it is.

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DbPhoenix View Post
Once you have your channel, your "call to action" comes when price exits this channel. Whether you are there to take advantage of it isn't critical as subsequent opportunities will arise.

But assuming that you are there at the time, you see that though price dipped back into the channel, it rebounded nicely. And at this point, the SLA takes over (think of it as AMT handing the baton to the SLA). What matters now is whether or not price can make a higher high, confirming the retracement.

Basically as new play with SLA/AMT i am directly inclined to reach the point where i ask myself how and when/where to enter in real time. I understand your concern that its not your viewed instrument and certainly i have not unlearn the things which are trying to hog my attention. I have marked more decision points where i am trying to visualize how should i approach at that point in realtime. Your insight is most sought and welcome.

First decision confusion comes ( now at seeing it in hindsight ) : Why should i act on Long 1 , 2 and 3 when its still not made higher high and confirm the leg as retracement ? Are those actions solely on the poking and bouncing off of the daily channel line ?


DbPhoenix View Post
It does, which enables you to draw a demand line. This line is broken, but whether you exit or not depends on the tactics you have in place: price came back a little more than half for this segment, but nowhere near that much for the earlier beginning of the move at 7900. If you know this well, you may be more likely to let it go than if you don't know it well, in which case you'd be more likely to exit the trade (which is one important advantage of characterizing your instrument). Assuming you stay with it, the tentative retracement is confirmed by a higher high.

Demand line broke twice , once after 4,5 and second time after 6 and 6'. If i wait for retracement to be confirm than 4 and 5 are my entry points. Since as you pointed out correctly my instrument is sort more of mean reversiont type and knowing other aspect about opening gaps filling nature i might stay in trade after 4 ,5. But on other note to be conservative one should liquidate as it broke last higher swing low ?
Now Decision point 6 and 6' : It confirms the retracement and we fanned the demand line. Now 6 as breakout entry or 6' as retracement to demand line entry ?

Another view comes from channel under development which can be readily activated after after it broke demand line second time. In this view 6 and 6' location appear as rejection and perhaps exit for that too. It again depends on personal tactics and instrument characterization. But this channel comes handy in saving short at channel bottom at 7 ?
If one dont draw channel and enters the short 7, then 8 comes as exit from short ? or it still will be in broad range and could only be exit at 9 on higher high. 9 and 9' are clear.

I just wrote the confusion which arrived in my mind as if i would have been in real time. Certainly it would be of more intense in real time than of at present writing but i am open to learn SLA/AMT and have decided to poke more in real time from next day.


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  #1054 (permalink)
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devdas View Post
I had all three chart weekly , daily and hourly on my workspace, but intentionally didnt posted as its implication to me were clear. Though here it is.

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Basically as new play with SLA/AMT i am directly inclined to reach the point where i ask myself how and when/where to enter in real time. I understand your concern that its not your viewed instrument and certainly i have not unlearn the things which are trying to hog my attention. I have marked more decision points where i am trying to visualize how should i approach at that point in realtime. Your insight is most sought and welcome.

First decision confusion comes ( now at seeing it in hindsight ) : Why should i act on Long 1 , 2 and 3 when its still not made higher high and confirm the leg as retracement ? Are those actions solely on the poking and bouncing off of the daily channel line ?



Demand line broke twice , once after 4,5 and second time after 6 and 6'. If i wait for retracement to be confirm than 4 and 5 are my entry points. Since as you pointed out correctly my instrument is sort more of mean reversiont type and knowing other aspect about opening gaps filling nature i might stay in trade after 4 ,5. But on other note to be conservative one should liquidate as it broke last higher swing low ?
Now Decision point 6 and 6' : It confirms the retracement and we fanned the demand line. Now 6 as breakout entry or 6' as retracement to demand line entry ?

Another view comes from channel under development which can be readily activated after after it broke demand line second time. In this view 6 and 6' location appear as rejection and perhaps exit for that too. It again depends on personal tactics and instrument characterization. But this channel comes handy in saving short at channel bottom at 7 ?
If one dont draw channel and enters the short 7, then 8 comes as exit from short ? or it still will be in broad range and could only be exit at 9 on higher high. 9 and 9' are clear.

I just wrote the confusion which arrived in my mind as if i would have been in real time. Certainly it would be of more intense in real time than of at present writing but i am open to learn SLA/AMT and have decided to poke more in real time from next day.

Boy, you've been paying attention. This is pretty good.

For the moment, I'd like not to answer your specific questions. People who are new to this, and a lot who are not so new to it, get so tied up in lines and retracements and reversals and whatnot that they choke on them. The most important considerations are (a) how well you know your instrument and (b) how much influence fear has. Most if not all beginners wildly underestimate the advantages of becoming intimately familiar with one instrument and trading the hell out of it. If one doesn't know his instrument extremely well, he is far more likely to be thrown out of a perfectly good trade because he doesn't know what to expect. And if fear is sitting on his shoulder poking him with a fork, that makes things even worse.

The lines track the balances and imbalances between demand and supply. It's up to the trader to know his instrument well enough to judge whether a given imbalance is serious or not. The beginner, particularly one who hasn't characterized his instrument, should exit as soon as the line is broken, as should the damaged trader who's afraid of his own shadow. The most important consideration for the latter is to rack up some successes. The most important consideration for the former is to learn to take control of his trading and not just sit their like a wart and let the market make all his decisions for him.

The trader who knows his instrument, though, isn't going to freak out and imagine ruin just because a line has been broken, particularly as the line is in the market solely due to its being drawn against swing lows. Otherwise the line is in the trader's head. The price movement itself is in the market. Which is why the swing points matter more than the line.

Therefore, if you can wait for price to test the last swing low (or high, if short), a violation of that will mean far more than the breaking of a line. Or you may want to allow price to drop all the way to the halfway level of the previous upmove to test buyers' resolve. Or you may choose to exit if price breaks that last swing low with the intention of re-entering if price holds above that halfway level and resumes its upmove. This is more risk management than trade management, though there are elements of both.

AMT has some influence here and it can keep you in a trade that you might otherwise exit if price were flailing all over the place. If you are trading a range or a channel and you have every reason to expect price to reach one extreme or the other, then you can more comfortably just leave it alone, though if you're trading multiple contracts, you may choose to lighten up a little.

But this is the essence of trading price: focusing on what price is doing rather than what an indicator or envelope or bar or candle or line is telling you that price is doing. If and when you're able to judge by traders' behavior as it is manifested in price behavior whether or not you're in trouble, you'll be able to stay in these trades to their natural conclusion rather than allow fear or ignorance of the instrument to make those decisions for you.

Blah Blah Blah

Now. If you can answer some of your questions yourself as a result of all the above, great. Repost the leftovers if you like and we can take it from there.

One point to consider: you don't have an hourly channel until the 8th. At that time, however, if your instrument is mean-reverting, there's no reason not to include that information when deciding whether or not to exit your short and trade the reversal. If you do exit the short and take the reversal and it all comes unglued, there should be no disaster if you anticipate this possibility and decide ahead of time what you're going to do in the event of an exit through the lower limit of the channel, i.e., trade the breakout or wait for a retracement. Or, as it will under those circumstances have stopped trending, you may decide to do nothing until price decides what it's going to do. When it knows, it'll let you know.


Last edited by DbPhoenix; July 20th, 2015 at 06:48 PM.
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  #1055 (permalink)
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Yday EOD status.

MIRZ levels popped out. There is a miniature level around 8540 which might come in picture if it fall today with possible confluence of 5Day VWAP/VAL, but let it be there.


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  #1056 (permalink)
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It freezes me for a moment what happened.


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  #1057 (permalink)
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Scratched that short for small profit. It was not on my track.

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  #1058 (permalink)
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In trying to capture short i really missed the context and better Long entry location.

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Made it free.

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EOD Status.

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@DbPhoenix

I do not wanted to mention you for every small change that occur on chart. But just to have a look and conserve an opinion which we may exchange in weekend. My understanding and characterization of Instrument is major edge for perception i employ and use to trade. I do not wanted to take advantage of that in SLA. As i already well know usage of AMT, separating everything in its own bin is challenging task. And when i see as a whole and look on absolute purpose of trading then i ask myself why should i separate them and subdued one over other ? But then comes the rules and discipline which help strain and must be followed without intervening.

So, here i have marked some things for assistance of my own which will be evaluated by market in due course. Honestly as a pure SLA, i think there is no short TO at present better say it need to wait for more information. I might be wrong on this with formation of LH-LL, which i think should be utilize for conservative exit from prior longs.


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