Nett Result of day = -4+0+17 = +13 Pts after comm.
Its roller coaster day. Nothing to say much, all three trades were driven as per momentum at the point.
Most interesting and amazing once again was the Week turned lesser pair ( 4,1) instead as expected (3,2) during day. After all it was Gambler's strike against big Gambler ( Market )....
Harvest The Moon Nest The Market
Can you help answer these questions from other members on futures io?
Next week i am not able to trade due to some work , outside to city. So perhaps next to next Monday i will continue.
Though i want and will update larger picture profile and chart before going. It seems very random and indecisive direction.
Reviewing the development that happened last week, was absent to see live.
Its on the original expectation since excess 'E' formed near 4760 lvl, that was a consequence of move to efficiency , 4th step and almost nearing completion now. It also completed DB projected lvl etc. Session wise it is also making symmetry but there is still some left ( minus ) development under the POC in between 4960 to 5110 zone. I dont want to second guess this up-move 'Now', cause its firmly placed in proper position as per MA structure also, and simplistic unwinding from here will be to follow the trend-follow the imbalance. But i keep always a contrarian view at each obvious interpret-able locations and the contextual location prompts for such view. Last candle ( 29 Jun-12 ) might turn fake-out, still making impression of breakout from local balance. Its near multiday balance POC 'P',and next course of imbalance if any migh start just from this location. So although its firmly placed as bullish structure but also near the origin of next imbalance and a fakeout will turn it bearish.
Taking a trade near local balance POC is a pain.
I took on assessment that much of chop i already passed and it may be time to take direction from here. But it didnt worked as expected..even leveraging little over structure. I cant hold assuming it is in tolerance limit of maximum stop, assessment of risk is directly attached to bar ranges and structure.
Got late due to miscellaneous pending works of last week.
Had a small time today to trade and that was a range activity after trend day ( Friday ). I am detailing some points and dividing the discussion in two parts, 1) Execution and 2) Fade the range.
1) With my day start , it was not tough to gauge in context of Opening rejection and Friday's closing activity that prices had more chances of going down first rather than going up first from my starting location. A Short trade initiated at Bar 1. I was aware of its location and bar ranges which were not very good from the perspective of trade to go in desired direction without delay. In contrast lower bar ranges also give benefit of lower risk and that can be used to position sizing - indirectly that mean i had a choice of initiating the trade with double size. But for some unknown reason i hardly ever used this in my execution. Perhaps i have always leaned towards minimizing structural risk first, before attempting any increase in size. So Bar 2 was a decent candle not only as for Add, but also as for fresh entry. I passed it without adding, it was a clear mistake i was aware of it at that time. Perhaps due to range activity i have not much confidence in getting desired tgt....MAE move just after entry at Bar 1 was one negative impact in this. And after Bar 3 i decided to scratch it. At the EOD i see Bar 4 just similar to Bar 2, except it was a large size bar. Bar 2 had more confirmation than Bar 1.
2) This part , i am discussing from the viewpoint of a fader ( i am not ) , its other thing it need skill that one can understand in hindsight but may not use properly in runtime. I have marked some hindsight fade locations that a hypothetical fader might use to initiate the trade.
First thing - Why Fade ? Its already explained Friday was big trend day , with slow grinding up activity in later half, Closing activity of friday and today's opening rejection were indication of market to spent time in rotation.
Second Thing - Why i dont use Fade often ? Simply i have no suitable plan for risk in this. I know most trade can be put with some fix stop loss risk, 5 point...or 10 point....or 15 point. That seems me random - how can as a fader, i use a fix stop loss when it is known fact that breakout point might fluctuate, breakout is open ended phenomenon in comparison to close ended range and fakeout/stophunt is easy possibility. I mean to say Fade risk are not of type that can be measured from fix stop loss and using fix stop loss does not make sense to me either. Those who use risk assessment from structure ( as i ) they might justify that if structure is with in fix stop limit than its ok. For example Fade Location 1's structural risk point was Opening Rejection and for Fade Location 2 , Fade Location 1 . Both were in limit of maximum fix stop loss ( 10-12 Points ) for me. But just compare Fade Location 4.....did it care my fix stop loss either way ?
This is one reason i dont try fade often and most of my trade are of type trend-cum-breakout-follow with some confirmation.
