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The X-Files on BMT


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The X-Files on BMT

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  #1 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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This is a journal to follow the Stock Market: SPY. In this journal, I am going to use the theory that the banks and the semiconductors (includes big tech) lead the direction of the market. I am going to chart XLF, the financials ETF and SMH, the semiconductors ETF. I will also include: XLK, big tech. I may look at utilities (income): XLU. Energy: XLE. The main focus is swing trading and trend trading.



This is the chart I will be using (until I improve it) to analyze the market. The daily stochastics is the swing, the weekly stochastics is the trend.

So, if the banks and semiconductors can't hold their recent lows, the SPY can trend down to 125.

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  #3 (permalink)
the coin hunter
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I also maintain a daily spy for market view, more to the down side

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  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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XLF is important. JP Morgan's balance sheet is a lie; don't know when the other shoe will drop. But, I look at charts.



XLF needs to hold the 200MA.



Not getting enough data for SMH. But price is far below all 3 MAs.



And the big techs are looking better helped by Apple, trying to get a change of trend.

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Market Wizard
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cory View Post
I also maintain a daily spy for market view, more to the down side

@cory , thanks for the chart. don't be a stranger; your perspective and charts are welcomed HERE.

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Market Wizard
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Always interesting, XLF bounced off the 200MA. Just when you thought it would, it didn't. Break...........

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Market Wizard
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Big Tech fared no better:


The market still in a down trend:


SPY on the 200MA

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Market Wizard
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See if "They" work back above 200 MA to stall the down trend.


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Market Wizard
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"They" engulfed the doji to close above the 200MA. Maybe a small gap on the day chart, let's give them the rest of the day.






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Market Wizard
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The word on the Street is this is a short covering rally. A "V" bottom, need to confirm with a "W" bottom.


Gap open never filled.


The "Banks" jumped back above the 200MA.

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Market Wizard
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market can't seem to get going. check out the charts. Weekly stochastics are DOA. The only good looking chart feature is the divergence on the daily chart. Maybe the daily stochastics has to come down and get the weekly stochastics for a bull leg kick off.






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Market Wizard
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Blue Arrow = "V" Bottom
Green Arrow = "W" Bottom
Red Arrow = Break of "W"
Purple Arrow = 1st Target @ L1 & 50MA

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Market Wizard
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XLF is stalled, but the GS news is that QE3 is soon.



But SPY made it's 1st goal of the 50 MA. So is the 50 MA resistance and the 25 MA support?


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#1: wasn't a massive amount of volume Thursday

SPY did meet the goal of L1 and the 50MA. Does it hold the 25 MA and consolidate? This is profit taking until we can confirm a trend change. Have to look for another "W" or pivot break of recent high. Or a break of the "W" low. 25MA.



The Banksters took it hard.



Big Tech


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Market Wizard
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Price has to get above the 50MA and the pivot high for the rally to continue. Still in an uptrend until ...............

The Bankers:



The Speculators:



The Investors:


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Market Wizard
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If we can get above yesterday's high, maybe we can get going to challenge the recent pivot high to start a summer rally.




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Da, got above yesterday's high and the pivot all in one day. wow.







So I know not what Monday will bring, The charts say we are in a swing higher. The 50 MA should be support.


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Friday the 13th is when JP Morgan and Wells Fargo report. Some say their earnings will be lousy, but may estimate a bright next quarter. And the market is waiting to hear the estimate.

But here are the charts:

The Banksters:


Needs to hold the 200MA and L2 at 14 ........ critical.

The Investors:


Needs to hold the 200MA, that pivot and L1.

The Speculators:


Needs to hold the 200MA and the lower pivot at around 75.

If we get a break, we get a trend change ..........................

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Market Wizard
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I guess many are waiting for the bilge from Jackson Hole. QE3 or not. This could break the market out of the current range.

The Banksters took look so hot:



The Investors are weakening: Check the volume:



The Speculators: This chart is waving a warning flag for the Bulls:


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Market Wizard
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The market trend is still up. Today's candle was white until "they" push higher on close. Hey, better volume. I guess Jackson Hole holds the key to a break of L1 or L1.


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Market Wizard
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the market that is. A lot of news this week ........ Check out the chart and draw your own conclusions.


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The Banksters still in an uptrend:


The Speculators show a mixed bag ...... interesting:


The Investors still in an UPTREND .... now in Doji_ville.




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The market is interesting or not interesting. It's personal perspective. Is it the dog days of summer


or the Election:

The Banksters: XLF is just sitting there at 15 for 5 days straight. Interesting?


Big Tech: XLK is having a nice run. That's interesting. No?


The Speculators: Caught in a Range? Interesting? Yes?


And what about the Investors?

5 days of grinding sideways on lower volume.

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Market Wizard
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According to the criteria of this thread: If XLF breaks above L1 the bull is back; below the 50MA and L1 the bear is out of the cage.




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Market Wizard
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Market Wizard
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the market follows the financials ............... "break point"

do we break?

every day is a new day!

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the S&P 500 will not turn up until the financials do. And a break of the 200 MA = look out below ...........

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Special Feature: Utilities ETF - XLU



There is only one reason for the Utilities to hit the skids: investors are bailing on dividend stocks because of the future from Washington DC.

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Bonus Feature: Metals & Miners - XME



It looks like XME was doing pretty good, but it broke down from the wedge or triangle. retest?

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Bonus Feature: Big Tech ETF - XLK



If XLK doesn't stay OS than maybe a double bottom before a reflex rally.

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