Thanks for all the content you're sharing. I've read all the posts from beginning of the thread, and trying to understand all that you're sharing here. I don't quite get the connection on all the numerical connections you state and the relevance to particular markets you're discussing at the time, like the # of the day within the year, etc. and the number of day left in the year. or how in your first post you came up with this as the number for the MA's you're using. It seems a bit random to me, but if it works, it's great. I'd like to know what the correlation is . . .
does it seem random to you? it be great if you can expand on it.
I must say this is a different look at trading the markets. It's fascinating, especially if it makes money. You really should do a webinar on your methodology. I'd be surprised if there wouldn't be others interested to engage in a live interaction . . . What do you think?
john2000 - thankyou for your comments and i am glad you are enjoying this thread -
as for webinars -i am computer stupid so to speak -i was not kidding when i just was taught how to do screen pics -and dont know about the difficulty in putting a webinar together -or if it would be any better than what is being shared here-
as for numbers -there are so many ways to watch markets move -these patterns were all set prior to the computer age - i use what i call Country Boy Math -
here is a CBM -# from yesturday 1102.77 now look at the 1102 est candle on the es -
note that it dropped 7 ticks to set the trigger went up 7 points to the 10 area fell back to the 1102 candle then proceeded a slow climb to 21 area over night .note the 10 --and 21 are hidden in the # .
to me its easier to pick 2 ma's and do what is shown in all the past post -to get new traders in the correct direction with known risk before they enter -
its the risk that is always the unknow for most traders -and with this system -if used properly they will trade with more confidence over time -
please note chart 1 and 2 are the same trend line from 2 days ago -down in the 1280 area -
i call this coming to visit and old friend
i guess my bottom line is -there are more than fancy computer systems out there that work for fresh minds -these setup can help verify any trading system as a backup for your entry -
i run 2 charts through out the day -1 with the 565/1400 and the 30/150 and the 2nd with just the 30/150 -
this helps me seperate long term and intraday -
i hope some of this babble has helped answer your concerns
fibs are stacked after duplicating -to check for movement patterns -notice how the 3rd stack is at the high and the 1315 area is showing up to be the pivot -
same chart -different dial in - note i tried to find the ma that started with the the low of today -also note the purple and green are % of the old numbers -then i check for movement with the fibs -notice how the second stack missed the 50% mark by 1 tick -
will give this a test run for a day or 2 to check it out
on the last chart above -it could be dial in just a little tighter -- so the 2nd fib stack 50% line is dead at the top -its hard to tell but its 1 tick form there -
so to do that i would have to take micro % adjustments off both the green and purple lines --
with tos charts i lose all data after 5 trading days as thats all the further back i can go -
even if you give out MA numbers, say 30, 150, 250, 660 you could change all of them on the very next chart thus there is no harm in letting people know what you use each time.
i always forget about screen shots -giving the info up top cory - but that was a good first run -i did go long at 1306.50 and have another 3 points as of this time 862.50 for 1 con of sept es -
Thanks for the elaboration . . . regarding your CBM math though, es did not trade at 1102.77 yesterday (6/6/12). Do you mean 1302.77? Or may be I'm missing something.
The graphic charts with the MA's is much easier ,to follow . . . I think because you can see them develop live as you go . . . the numbers are easy to see after the fact.
Been meaning to ask you about the time when (1)the bars penetrate the trend line, either up, or down. Do you switch from Long to Short (or vise versa)? Or do you wait for another setup? (2)Because the MA's do sometimes get a bid "muddy". They start merging, and seem like they will cross, and then they almost run parallel for a while, and then they start to widen again. So, not sure what the protocol is as related to the trend line.
In the attached pic, the Yellow square shows a White trend line which I added to your previously posted chart (1). Obviously the Long is arguably a good trade at the MA cross. then the price move down and you're either stopped out, at the trend line, or out way before that, say at the 30 MA, somewhere. The Blue square demonstrates my question (2) on "muddy" MA's. Any suggestions?
Again, thanks for the sharing your perspective.
P.S. After I wrote this post, I went back and re-read some previous post. I think my answer to questions above are addressed in Post 99 ---
i will give you a little history on this setup -as i dont believe anyone out there will have the link of trades for the last several years that has been used with this simple setup-
my best day testing with the sim was 24 million dollars
the 1102 is est eastern standard time -not price -
as for the first box -i see no trade in that set up
the second box was my long right after i could establish a trend line -if the low of the blue trend line was my exit -
hope this helps -
i try never to trade or make calls on here -with the obvious after the fact -as there are enough people in the business that do that already -
howevere john2000 -on good volitility move i will trade setup to setup -and when i start to see flat lining trends like the 6E high risk zone -i exit and if i feel like playing will just do box scalper trades as shown
now that 22 points in theory - if and only if it's used with the 2nd chart for longer moves -because the left side of the green bar would have added 2 trades trying to guess the action
4- is the area in question -it represents the trend to the low under the #4 -now a good system trader using 11 as pivot and 150 ma as s/r would have jumped on the short
its always easier in hind site - but if you know the last high is the stop than take the trade -
on chart 5--6 you will see longer term but the 5 signal would not have been clear till 6 was in place -although the trend was down and the tap of the 150 ma on this chart would have been or is 4 bars of wall or resistance -
Thanks for the clarification of 1102, and further theory thoughts in the last two points. I'll take a closer look when I'm in front of a bigger screen, and get back to you. Although as far as setups/trades I though that the crossover, and the begining of the trend line (in this case white color) WAS the setup to go long. No?
FINE PRINT TO CLARIFY THE INTENT: IT'S CLEAR TO ME, AND HOPEFULY EVERYONE ELSE READING THIS THREAD PAST PRESENT AND FUTURE, THAT ONE SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY OF THESE DISCUSSIONS AND SETUPS AS TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS. IF ONE DOES ACT ON THESE, IT IS AT THEIR OWN RISK.
I hope you don't mind me stating the large caps, since this is your thread, I can delete it, if you want. But just wanted clarify for everyone these are just ideas being discussed.
Do you look at volume as a component of your trading?
dont allow anyone to put fear in your path when it comes to this system - the exit and risk are clearly defined -
here is and example on a lesser ma chart
using 15/75 as crossovers -
note 1-2-3 are all trend break ambushes -most times faster than 1 could think
but look at # 4 for the patient trader
going long at the 1301.50 area as the 15/75 are about to break north has a very defined risk -
the STOP with no questioned asked would be 1298.25 (9 ticks )- the reward as in this case is a move to the last crossover or what ever you feel you need on a lesser level -
if you fail to get out then YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO THE SYSTEM
also note that between 2 and 3 there is a sideways move developing as the market looks for direction 96div 16 =6
right now using simple math on the last 5 crossovers shown -the pivot is 1304.38 area
as discussed in previous threads - when trading mutilpe contracts always set your self up for a free trade agreement - thus when up 9 ticks -reduce by 1/2 and try again when the next clear signal starts -
this thread was started to show beginner traders a nice little edge that has clearly defined risk -
dont try and guess the move when your new and just starting out -only the clear setups have the defined risk as we have shown over and over -
john2000 - the reason i dont see a trade in the first box you questioned -is because its prior to the 250/660 crossover and as for long term trend it was not established and would have been a meer short term guess for a short term trade with only 1/2 the info available to use -however trade what you see -as i did not see it clearly defined
the current es chart as volume developes -notice the long term set up -which is a move north of the 50% line -has a risk factor of great than 10 points -there is no great reward with that setup -wait for the next -
as for volume questioned by john2000 -as discussed in a prior post -on tick charts lesser volume just means slower setups -i never really equate it in what i do -
notice the green oval of risk approx 3 points shorted the open at the 1305.75 spot -reduced 1/2 at the 3 point profit zone -will ride for free trade at this point - this will be the only trade today do to graduation -pivot off the 15/75 bar is at 1305.14 area as of the last yellow circle
now the lesser chart - 15/75 crossover - red line is pivot of last 5 crossover averages - green line is 1302.67 plus the 4 prior for the ave - it did slam the wall on the higher chart
notice new pivot in green and system in orange -trendline broke @ 1305.75 -short risk 5 ticks -- always always always -when running mutiples get out of 1/2 @ at YOUR KNOW RISK -and new traders have your account locked at 1 contract -
held the 50% zone to show trend reversal -but remember on the greater chart the risk was 2 high -
maybe see 26 today -for the final friday short squash -
another nice 6 tick risk trade -using pivots -and 1/2 off system-1 contract traders remember this is scalping as far as i am concerned when playing the 15/75
since post 235 i have tried to let you see my thought process -as the day progresses -and how my thoughts and opinions of direction change with the info given -i hope some of this helps someone -
on the long term swing chart we are still long from the intraday 15/75 chart -i believe it was 1301.50 entry -we are currently sitting at 1316.25 - for about 15 points
also i hope you practice the pivot zones-you can test different time frames and ma's and see what works in your trading plan -
also someone changed the quote under my name of creekboy -from trades for fun --to trades for profit -
i wish to request it changed back as trades for profit is too much work -i would rather it be fun -
have a great weekend and we will see you next week at some point
good luck to all
The following user says Thank You to creekboy for this post:
so after a few weeks of calls and showing how we look at the markets -i have taken on a summer helper while school is out -we have come up with a trading system -
now we will come up with a trading plan -
1-we need a weekly target - now remember this kid is 15 and 200 bucks is a lot of money -
so our weekly target is $195.50per contract -thus we have his ACCOUNT LOCKED AT 1 CONTRACT -he is taking over a account i was using when i 1st signed on this site -it currently sits at around 5200 dollars
so weekly target is 195.50 any thing over is just a bonus -(9775 yearly income )
as we are successful we will increase contract size as account builds
so 12k -we will trade 2 cons = $391 weekly target(19550 yearly income )
24k - 4 con lock = $ 782 weekly target (39100 yearly income)
48k- 6 con lock = $ 1173 weekly target (58560 yearly income )
56 k -8 con lock = $ 1564 weekly target78200 yearly income )
100k - 10 con lock = 1950.50 weekly target (97525 yearly income )
144k- 12 con lock =$2346 weekly target (117300 yearly income )
180k- 16 con lock =$3128 weekly target (156400 yearly income )
240k -20 con lock =$3910 weekly target (195500 yearly income)
325k - 25 con lock =4887.5 weekly target (244375 yearly income
450k - 30 con lock =$5865 weekly target (293250 yearly income)
560k- 35 con lock =$6842.5 weekly target (342125 yearly income)
720k- 40 con lock =$7820 weekly target (391000 yearly income)
1 mill- 50 con lock = $9775 weekly target(488750 yearly income )
1.5 mil -70 con lock =$13685 weekly income (684250 yearly income)
2 mil -80 con lock = 15640 weekly target (782000 yearly income)
2.5 mil - 100 con lock =19550 weekly target (977500 yearly income )
this is our projected trading plan -
there is no time line -
results will be posted daily with a chart or 2 that match the above charts posted -
long at the green line / stop -the break of the red line -
The following user says Thank You to creekboy for this post:
this post will be mostly scalping with a 15/75 -crossover setups
all exits will be flattened at 7 ticks for max loss -
notice in the chart below -the yellow circle is the best shorting zone as the 15 ma (green ) has crossed below the 75 ma (purple) note the 1 tick higher stop out for early entries -
but the short entry remained the same
The following user says Thank You to creekboy for this post:
the chart above is what you are waiting for to happen - there are millions of these setups -so if it does not pan out -have patience and wait for the next 1- and if you want to keep a tight stop -when you get a run up like off the 1305.50 area -calculate your pull back so your loss limit works -thus if the low is
1305.50
1306.75 entry on the p/b -with a stop at 1305.25
leaves 6 tick loss -if ma's are showing weakness than you can jump with and even tighter loss -
but remember -when trading multiples -do them in even lots and create free trade agreements with yourself
so the 1306.75 entry = 1/2 off at 7 ticks 1308.50 -
So here's something I've noticed in terms of the changes to the MA values . . . you may be doing it intuitively, or may be there's a formula, etc. etc. (not important how) but in terms of back testing, how do you keep track of the systems' performance?
What do you offer the 15 year old helper as a clue, that, hey, it's now time to look at a different MA value?
John2000 - if you check at the beginning of the sept es -how i find the pattern that i feel works -i test it - was happy with the results -so will run it -i only have 5 days of data to refer to -and have come to accept that -so being that is has worked for years -on all markets -i find it helpful to dial it in as i did -just as the volume started to build -
i have back tested this pattern on all stocks and it works just fine for flipping options -but i dont understand all the greeks that go with options -but still killed it when using this pattern -
oil - beans -- currency -- its all ups and downs and floating end trendlines - top and bottom math is a different ball game that i wont be trapped into discussing -
this entire thread is to show new traders it can be done -
thats the bottom line -
we all are greedy when we start -but its the little bites and lots of them at the right time that build the pile -
today was tough -bringing in fresh fingers -and trying to make a go of it - but 4 trades and he was up 80 dollars -he was happy - being the first trade he was up 112 --
remember 195.50 is the goal for 5 days and we are not even 1/2 way there with 4 days to go -
any overage is just a buffer for the future -
time will tell
have you ever hit the wrong side of the ladder chart when you were new john2000 -
or give yourself a target and watch it hit it to the tick and the understudy not get out -frustrating to say the least
thats why all goals are minor amounts over time will pay off -
hope this helps
The following 2 users say Thank You to creekboy for this post:
Thanks for expanding. I find it interesting that you go based on 5 days of data for backtesting. I think I over-analyze and tend to look at more days, which I know it's been one of my issues with consistent results. But I mostly do it to get longer term support and resistence levels. I guess, in someways, there's something to the short trade history, in that one is able to deal with the most recent history, which is most relevant.
This may explain why I sometimes when I'm away from my computer and look at 5 day charts from CNBC site and based on their stripped down charts, can make better decisions.
Oh, . . . and as far as hitting the wrong thing when new . . . It's funny, I still sometimes do it. Did a rookie mistake just today. Hit the Sell ASK, got filled almost immediately, but somehow I hit the Close button, and got myself out of the ES position as the market tanked at the end. I've learned to not get as frustrated anymore about it, although sometimes I still do. But today I was too distracted by it to just hit Sell again. I had an OK day earlier and decided not do anymore trades, after that mistake, and give back profits.
john2000- i find it interesting that people put so much time in back testing -when they call it futures -
pick any stock in play -like apple for the nq move -and back test it
or years ago now US steel for the s&p -if my memory is correct i believe it went to 177-you can back test all of these for 100 years with this system setup - yearly /monthly ect . just keep reducing the ma by equal mutiples -
15/75 ==90/450===5/25=====1/5 and you will see the answers
thanks for the comments
The following user says Thank You to creekboy for this post:
Not sure what you mean by "reducing the ma by equa l multiples". When you switch the chart from a 5min chart to a 15min chart for example, a 30/150 ma on a 5min chart is still, a 30/150 ma on a 60min chart. Isn't it? However a 30/150 ma on a 15min chart is a 90/450 ma on a 5 min chart, more or less.( I say more or less, because closes on a 5min chart vs. 15min price chart are not going to be exactly the same intrabar, but that gets to too much detail). Anyway, is that what you mean by "reducing the ma"?
boy 15 trader -had a trying day - he had a beautiful long from 1300.75 -
he took 3 ticks because his exit was 1 tick higher than allowed by our rules -
then he chose to fight it a few move times -and ended down the 80 he was up yesturday -
do to frustration he was done for the day -
when he looked back at what he had -he could not believe it -but time will improve his thought process- if he would have gotten in at 1300.50 his rules would have been met and he would have had a nice run untill the trend was broken
note on the big chart the trend did not fail till 1310.50 was broken or the break of the blue dotted line
keep it up. I need to go back a few pages and see the content . . .