the chart above is what you are waiting for to happen - there are millions of these setups -so if it does not pan out -have patience and wait for the next 1- and if you want to keep a tight stop -when you get a run up like off the 1305.50 area -calculate your pull back so your loss limit works -thus if the low is
1306.75 entry on the p/b -with a stop at 1305.25
leaves 6 tick loss -if ma's are showing weakness than you can jump with and even tighter loss -
but remember -when trading multiples -do them in even lots and create free trade agreements with yourself
so the 1306.75 entry = 1/2 off at 7 ticks 1308.50 -
So here's something I've noticed in terms of the changes to the MA values . . . you may be doing it intuitively, or may be there's a formula, etc. etc. (not important how) but in terms of back testing, how do you keep track of the systems' performance?
What do you offer the 15 year old helper as a clue, that, hey, it's now time to look at a different MA value?
John2000 - if you check at the beginning of the sept es -how i find the pattern that i feel works -i test it - was happy with the results -so will run it -i only have 5 days of data to refer to -and have come to accept that -so being that is has worked for years -on all markets -i find it helpful to dial it in as i did -just as the volume started to build -
i have back tested this pattern on all stocks and it works just fine for flipping options -but i dont understand all the greeks that go with options -but still killed it when using this pattern -
oil - beans -- currency -- its all ups and downs and floating end trendlines - top and bottom math is a different ball game that i wont be trapped into discussing -
this entire thread is to show new traders it can be done -
thats the bottom line -
we all are greedy when we start -but its the little bites and lots of them at the right time that build the pile -
today was tough -bringing in fresh fingers -and trying to make a go of it - but 4 trades and he was up 80 dollars -he was happy - being the first trade he was up 112 --
remember 195.50 is the goal for 5 days and we are not even 1/2 way there with 4 days to go -
any overage is just a buffer for the future -
time will tell
have you ever hit the wrong side of the ladder chart when you were new john2000 -
or give yourself a target and watch it hit it to the tick and the understudy not get out -frustrating to say the least
thats why all goals are minor amounts over time will pay off -
hope this helps
The following 2 users say Thank You to creekboy for this post:
Thanks for expanding. I find it interesting that you go based on 5 days of data for backtesting. I think I over-analyze and tend to look at more days, which I know it's been one of my issues with consistent results. But I mostly do it to get longer term support and resistence levels. I guess, in someways, there's something to the short trade history, in that one is able to deal with the most recent history, which is most relevant.
This may explain why I sometimes when I'm away from my computer and look at 5 day charts from CNBC site and based on their stripped down charts, can make better decisions.
Oh, . . . and as far as hitting the wrong thing when new . . . It's funny, I still sometimes do it. Did a rookie mistake just today. Hit the Sell ASK, got filled almost immediately, but somehow I hit the Close button, and got myself out of the ES position as the market tanked at the end. I've learned to not get as frustrated anymore about it, although sometimes I still do. But today I was too distracted by it to just hit Sell again. I had an OK day earlier and decided not do anymore trades, after that mistake, and give back profits.
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