Thanks for the elaboration . . . regarding your CBM math though, es did not trade at 1102.77 yesterday (6/6/12). Do you mean 1302.77? Or may be I'm missing something.
The graphic charts with the MA's is much easier ,to follow . . . I think because you can see them develop live as you go . . . the numbers are easy to see after the fact.
Been meaning to ask you about the time when (1)the bars penetrate the trend line, either up, or down. Do you switch from Long to Short (or vise versa)? Or do you wait for another setup? (2)Because the MA's do sometimes get a bid "muddy". They start merging, and seem like they will cross, and then they almost run parallel for a while, and then they start to widen again. So, not sure what the protocol is as related to the trend line.
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In the attached pic, the Yellow square shows a White trend line which I added to your previously posted chart (1). Obviously the Long is arguably a good trade at the MA cross. then the price move down and you're either stopped out, at the trend line, or out way before that, say at the 30 MA, somewhere. The Blue square demonstrates my question (2) on "muddy" MA's. Any suggestions?
the 1102 is est eastern standard time -not price -
as for the first box -i see no trade in that set up
the second box was my long right after i could establish a trend line -if the low of the blue trend line was my exit -
hope this helps -
i try never to trade or make calls on here -with the obvious after the fact -as there are enough people in the business that do that already -
howevere john2000 -on good volitility move i will trade setup to setup -and when i start to see flat lining trends like the 6E high risk zone -i exit and if i feel like playing will just do box scalper trades as shown
now that 22 points in theory - if and only if it's used with the 2nd chart for longer moves -because the left side of the green bar would have added 2 trades trying to guess the action
4- is the area in question -it represents the trend to the low under the #4 -now a good system trader using 11 as pivot and 150 ma as s/r would have jumped on the short
its always easier in hind site - but if you know the last high is the stop than take the trade -
on chart 5--6 you will see longer term but the 5 signal would not have been clear till 6 was in place -although the trend was down and the tap of the 150 ma on this chart would have been or is 4 bars of wall or resistance -
Thanks for the clarification of 1102, and further theory thoughts in the last two points. I'll take a closer look when I'm in front of a bigger screen, and get back to you. Although as far as setups/trades I though that the crossover, and the begining of the trend line (in this case white color) WAS the setup to go long. No?
FINE PRINT TO CLARIFY THE INTENT: IT'S CLEAR TO ME, AND HOPEFULY EVERYONE ELSE READING THIS THREAD PAST PRESENT AND FUTURE, THAT ONE SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY OF THESE DISCUSSIONS AND SETUPS AS TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS. IF ONE DOES ACT ON THESE, IT IS AT THEIR OWN RISK.
I hope you don't mind me stating the large caps, since this is your thread, I can delete it, if you want. But just wanted clarify for everyone these are just ideas being discussed.
Do you look at volume as a component of your trading?
as discussed in previous threads - when trading mutilpe contracts always set your self up for a free trade agreement - thus when up 9 ticks -reduce by 1/2 and try again when the next clear signal starts -
this thread was started to show beginner traders a nice little edge that has clearly defined risk -
dont try and guess the move when your new and just starting out -only the clear setups have the defined risk as we have shown over and over -
john2000 - the reason i dont see a trade in the first box you questioned -is because its prior to the 250/660 crossover and as for long term trend it was not established and would have been a meer short term guess for a short term trade with only 1/2 the info available to use -however trade what you see -as i did not see it clearly defined
the current es chart as volume developes -notice the long term set up -which is a move north of the 50% line -has a risk factor of great than 10 points -there is no great reward with that setup -wait for the next -
as for volume questioned by john2000 -as discussed in a prior post -on tick charts lesser volume just means slower setups -i never really equate it in what i do -
notice the green oval of risk approx 3 points shorted the open at the 1305.75 spot -reduced 1/2 at the 3 point profit zone -will ride for free trade at this point - this will be the only trade today do to graduation -pivot off the 15/75 bar is at 1305.14 area as of the last yellow circle