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the easy edge for beginner traders


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the easy edge for beginner traders

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  #1001 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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spy - look at how many overnight areas you could not get a technical entry in between 4 pm and 9:30 am est--
30 min chart


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1002 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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PFE daily chart -wait your turn

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
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  #1003 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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JPM -daily charts



:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1004 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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JPM - 3 day chart

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1005 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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FCX- daily chart - wait your turn


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
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option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1006 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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wait your turn

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1007 (permalink)
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creekboy View Post
spy - look at how many overnight areas you could not get a technical entry in between 4 pm and 9:30 am est--
30 min chart

Do you mean trading after hours 4pm - 8pm, and 8am - 9:30am eastern, being an equity index/ETF?

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  #1008 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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thanks for the question - yes the after hours action and how in the example shown it will add time/wonder/worry to your trading day -now if we take the 3 day spy you will see alot of the slop has been charted out of the moves and you will also see how you can decide how far out to purchase your options on the average -in the example below - you should always be at least 6 months and you or any one charting will be able to count days or weeks or months of front run to decided where your best time line is for your distance stlye







Big Mike View Post
Do you mean trading after hours 4pm - 8pm, and 8am - 9:30am eastern, being an equity index/ETF?

Mike


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1009 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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i often wonder if 1 could use the 3 or 4 day spy to plot futures patterns ?

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1010 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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another balanced day thus far - option traders beware -this pattern could remain till the middle of sept in a 50 point range just killing time -



option traders should chart out all indices to see where the action might be -
30 min -- daily -- 3 day -- 4day -- weekly -- and monthly -
try to overlay your findings of time and direction

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1011 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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the other 5 min comparison chart - nice baseline formed -will watch it for price spread above and below to establish a tradable range area

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1012 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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333 tick -charting not complete -but the base looks the same- i have 2 brothers and 4 sisters and even if i had each of them build a model of this program theres would never give me a base line like this -chart yourself and you will understand how the action works -


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1013 (permalink)
 Rad4633 
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creekboy View Post
333 tick -charting not complete -but the base looks the same- i have 2 brothers and 4 sisters and even if i had each of them build a model of this program theres would never give me a base line like this -chart yourself and you will understand how the action works -


Hi Guys

Trying to keep up with the different time frame charts and why you choose to use a certain one for a certain type of day, So your going to use the 333T today? because it looks like we are going to be in a tight range or does this not matter

Thx R

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  #1014 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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thanks for the question - the 333 vx. 5 min -was just to show the bases will stack if you track mutiple levels of time and movement - check your skype for today preseason playcast






Rad4633 View Post
Hi Guys

Trying to keep up with the different time frame charts and why you choose to use a certain one for a certain type of day, So your going to use the 333T today? because it looks like we are going to be in a tight range or does this not matter

Thx R


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1015 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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1600 tick chart -another quiet day - tuesday will add some life to the market

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1016 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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visited a few friends from yesturday - 1 chart has and interesting setup


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1017 (permalink)
Allistah
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Hi there...

I'm really confused as to what your system is. Do you have any rules anywhere in this thread?

I see you putting trend lines on the charts but to my eye it seems inconsistent on how they are drawn so I don't know how to follow it.

If you have any list of rules or anything that would be most helpful.

Sorry for being a dummy but I'm just not getting it. lol


-Alli

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  #1018 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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no there are no rules other than your own -set for your trading style - just thought this would help with oyur option timing -for your long or short positions -

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1019 (permalink)
Allistah
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I see all the charts but I don't know what I'm looking at. Can you describe why a trade was taken on some of the charts that you've posted?


-Alli

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  #1020 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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thanks for the question - will see if i can help --in the option section -the setup we use is to find direction -2 moving ave of different times -like 12 and 42 -the trend line is floated till the faster ma (12) crosses the trendline - that is either a long or short entry point - if you learn how to do this it will help with your option directional timing -you see the longs were marked with orange and the shorts were marked with pink - each area is a directional entry zone - with the last high or low being the risk - i hope this has clarified this some for you -- send me and example of a trade you have entered with the exact date it was entered on a i will post the chart for that time line and you will see if your directional decision was correct on the trade -






Allistah View Post
I see all the charts but I don't know what I'm looking at. Can you describe why a trade was taken on some of the charts that you've posted?


-Alli

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:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1021 (permalink)
Allistah
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What do you mean that the trend line is floated until the 12 ma crosses it? The floated part is what I don't understand. Tomorrow morning I will post the info for two trades I took today.

Thanks for the assistance and the willingness to help! :-)


-Alli

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  #1022 (permalink)
Allistah
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Actually here are the trades:

SPX 8/14/2012 @ 12:43 pm (Short)
IOC 8/14/2012 @ 10:30 am (Short)

My time zone is Pacific (California).

I would love to hear what you think about those!

Thanks again!


-Alli

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  #1023 (permalink)
Allistah
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Btw, I look at the weekly and daily for direction and I used the 1 hour chart for timing of the entries.


-Alli

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  #1024 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Allistah View Post
What do you mean that the trend line is floated until the 12 ma crosses it? The floated part is what I don't understand.


Hope this picture will clear most doubt about his floating trend line.
One has to start base trendline to initiate the the process. In this pic Pink trendline is that base trendline which started from actual cross-over of MA....after that all child trendline will emerge from crossover of faster MA and prior trendline.


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  #1025 (permalink)
 plethora 
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no there are no rules other than your own ...


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  #1026 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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spx
charts are orange long /// pink short

chart 1 - 1 hour chart - no short trade has been set (grey ) still barely above trendline --note all the orange and pink turns -will give you and ave time in a long or short trade to help with front distance




chart 2 --daily chart - long side still in play also - i dont know the time line of your trading style -good luck on this trade

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1027 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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IOC

this trade is still in long mode- the 60 area was sure a nice long entry looking at the time from the green ma to the red active trendline - would recheck this trade on or around sept 5th for a short - in its current state - remember i am not calling tops or bottoms with this system - its to just ride the coattails of the algo trades

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1028 (permalink)
Allistah
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Thanks for taking the time to mark up those charts for my entries. :-). Greatly appreciate it. It's always a learning experience to see different perspectives on your trades.

I studied some explanations for your method that others have given as well as numerous examples of what you have shown on how to draw the trend lines. Makes perfect sense now.

Now what I would like to know is what triggers an entry for a long or short position as well as what triggers a sell or cover to get out of a position?

On the SPX and IOC charts that you marked up for me, what MA values are you using there? Did you use both on he daily and 1h charts?


-Alli

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  #1029 (permalink)
Allistah
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devdas View Post
Hope this picture will clear most doubt about his floating trend line.
One has to start base trendline to initiate the the process. In this pic Pink trendline is that base trendline which started from actual cross-over of MA....after that all child trendline will emerge from crossover of faster MA and prior trendline.


Hey there, just wanted to thank you for taking the time to explain this to me. Makes sense now. :-)


-Alli

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  #1030 (permalink)
Allistah
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devdas View Post
Hope this picture will clear most doubt about his floating trend line.
One has to start base trendline to initiate the the process. In this pic Pink trendline is that base trendline which started from actual cross-over of MA....after that all child trendline will emerge from crossover of faster MA and prior trendline.


In the image here, you show trend lines 1 and 2. When you have a line set sand a new high or low is made you just move that trend line and not make a new one like in this image? I think you had both in the image to show how it was moved after a new high was made but wanted to just check and make sure. Banks again, this image was most helpful.


-Alli

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  #1031 (permalink)
Allistah
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Hi there...

I attempted to do this drawing of trend lines myself and wanted to get some feedback. Does this look correct? For MAs, I just used 13 for the fast number since it's a Fibinacci number and multiplied it by 2 to get the higher number. No clue if thats ok or not.

At any rate, if someone could look at this and tell me if I'm on the right track, I sure would appreciate it.


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  #1032 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Allistah View Post
In the image here, you show trend lines 1 and 2. When you have a line set sand a new high or low is made you just move that trend line and not make a new one like in this image? I think you had both in the image to show how it was moved after a new high was made but wanted to just check and make sure. Banks again, this image was most helpful.


-Alli

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Yes...it was to make clear how trendline shift. 1 and 2 are two instances of trendline corresponding to two highs 1 and 2. In reality it will be only one shifting as new high/low continue to form.

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  #1033 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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looks spot on-and ma #s look good too
dont be afraid to try other ma #s and time charts




Allistah View Post
Hi there...

I attempted to do this drawing of trend lines myself and wanted to get some feedback. Does this look correct? For MAs, I just used 13 for the fast number since it's a Fibinacci number and multiplied it by 2 to get the higher number. No clue if thats ok or not.

At any rate, if someone could look at this and tell me if I'm on the right track, I sure would appreciate it.



:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1034 (permalink)
Allistah
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Ok, so what are the entries and exits? Would it be safe to say that a close of a bar outside of the current trend line would trigger an event? Is that the basics for trading this? If so, are there others as well?

Also, do you take in consideration other time frames at the same time? Or do you do trade one time frame at a time? I'm trying to look at 2-3 time frames to line up my existing trades and it is indeed difficult. One time frame would work a lot easier...

Since my trades last 3-6 trading days at the most, I was thinking maybe a 2h hour chart to do this one. I'm looking at a 1h chart now but that might be too small for trades that need to last 3-6 days. Any opinions on that?

Thanks,

-Allistah

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  #1035 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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thanks plethora!
Creeker tells me to post what my thoughts are on here sorta like a journal. I do have some notes too. This is kind of fun/boring at times so not sure i like it. Writing on here helps!


plethora View Post
Forget the reasons :las er:creekiedictator "cd" keeps you around and don't stop soaking up the opportunity like a sponge. This experience is a turning point in your life bigger than you can imagine right now. But I'm confident you already knew this little detail and were just horsing around from the
u
Why don't you invest in one of those spiral notebooks you take to class with you and use it as your own personal journal?! Then you can tell cd and the rest of the world:



:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
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option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1036 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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Look in the body of your message for response


Allistah View Post
Ok, so what are the entries and exits? Would it be safe to say that a close of a bar outside of the current trend line would trigger an event? Is that the basics for trading this? If so, are there others as well? ***On options and on larger time frames, our entry is two bars outside MA crossings and your exit is always ALWAYS the break of the LAST lower hight*****

Also, do you take in consideration other time frames at the same time? Or do you do trade one time frame at a time? I'm trying to look at 2-3 time frames to line up my existing trades and it is indeed difficult. One time frame would work a lot easier... when looking for major trends, we often stack charts to look at them at different time frames

Since my trades last 3-6 trading days at the most, I was thinking maybe a 2h hour chart to do this one. I'm looking at a 1h chart now but that might be too small for trades that need to last 3-6 days. Any opinions on that?
I would be anywhere from 30 min charts to a 1,2, or 3 day chart
Hope this helps :sos:
Thanks,

-Allistah


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refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1037 (permalink)
 devdas 
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Allistah View Post
Ok, so what are the entries and exits? Would it be safe to say that a close of a bar outside of the current trend line would trigger an event?

-Allistah


I literally didn't knew what creek(boy) meant.... so i had actually google it. I was surprise how my jump entries across two MA were actually jumping the two opposite banks of small creek.

Just imagine if you have to cross such a creek in jungle by your two legs....how best you can do that - just by a single jump - just cross the creek by single bar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creek



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  #1038 (permalink)
Allistah
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Sounds like I need to sort of make my own entries and exits from here. I'll try a few things and see if I can get it to work out. I'll post a trade when I get my first one done.

Thanks again!

-Allistah

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  #1039 (permalink)
 creekboy 
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Love the analogy!




devdas View Post
I literally didn't knew what creek(boy) meant.... so i had actually google it. I was surprise how my jump entries across two MA were actually jumping the two opposite banks of small creek.

Just imagine if you have to cross such a creek in jungle by your two legs....how best you can do that - just by a single jump - just cross the creek by single bar.

Creek - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia




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  #1040 (permalink)
 ThatManFromTexas 
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Allistah View Post
Hi there...

For MAs, I just used 13 for the fast number since it's a Fibinacci number and multiplied it by 2 to get the higher number. No clue if thats ok or not.

@Allistah

If you want two Fibonacci numbers use 13/34...

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

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 creekboy 
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MY loch ness looks much more realistic than this one!



Scottish Sailor Claims To Have Best Picture Yet Of Loch Ness Monster | ABC News Blogs - Yahoo!


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Allistah
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Could someone draw the trend lines for SPX on a 1 hour chart using a 13 and 34 SMAs for the entire month of May 2012? I'm a bit confused around May 18-25 how the trend lines come out. When you draw one of the lines around that time, the MAs are already on the right side of the trendline and won't cross. So if someone could do it correctly I can see how it is correct for this situation if that makes any sense.

Thank you,

-Alli

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Allistah
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Here is the situation I'm asking about...


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 Rad4633 
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Allistah View Post
Here is the situation I'm asking about...


you can only have 1 trendline in that space, so the next trendline starts after 2 ma cross again, this is where it gets tricky and u ll understand how to do this the more you use the system, also as Creekboy has said try different ma for your chart timeframe finding the ma that work best will help these area as well.

Try different ma you ll see this will help your issue

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Allistah
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So should I have drawn the trendline the top arrow is pointing at? Can you show me how it would be done properly?

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NYstateofmind
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1-hour



2 day


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NYstateofmind
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opps sorry -wrong chart

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 Rad4633 
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Allistah View Post
So should I have drawn the trendline the top arrow is pointing at? Can you show me how it would be done properly?

Only way to do it with these ma is to start trendline same location wait for 2 ma to cross and use the next highest high after the cross and draw it then draw next trendline the same....But IMO your ma times is what adding to your problem drawing the trendlines, if you stay with those ma times your going have problem areas like this

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Allistah
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Would you have any recommendations on what MAs I should start with that wouldn't have this problem much?

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NYstateofmind
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SPX13/34 ma




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Allistah
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I couldn't figure out why your chart was different from mine. Yours has after hours on. Mine does not... ;-) Do I always want to do this with after hours on all the time?

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 creekboy 
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yes, all our charting is done with after hours on them.



Allistah View Post
I couldn't figure out why your chart was different from mine. Yours has after hours on. Mine does not... ;-) Do I always want to do this with after hours on all the time?


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Allistah
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Here is an updated chart. Is line A correct? What about line B? What do I do when it crosses once and then right back the other way as I pointed out in the screenshot? Maybe different moving averages would fix this? What numbers should I start with?


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 creekboy 
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Line A is not correct. You need to split the highest red candle after the cross over which in this case is the first red candle. Be sure to split the area between the two MA's.

Line B would then cross the little blip that you have tagged with a ?. No matter how small the crossover is, you need to split it. Sometimes you have to blow up the page to see if it really crossed.

Creeker is posting under NYStateofMind which is my Moms name. I am sitting at his computer. and he dictates to me.




Allistah View Post
Here is an updated chart. Is line A correct? What about line B? What do I do when it crosses once and then right back the other way as I pointed out in the screenshot? Maybe different moving averages would fix this? What numbers should I start with?



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NYstateofmind
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area in question -note the yellow areas mark the candle being used for the split centers of ma's



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Allistah
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Ok, I re-did it with some different MAs. Does this look correct?


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 Rad4633 
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Allistah View Post
Ok, I re-did it with some different MAs. Does this look correct?


move C trendline to lowest price in middle of weds and thurs reason being this would be ur exit if u where short and entry to go long imo then all looks good, redraw D point and the high you drew C to was just restest back to your slower Ma then moved on

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Allistah
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Ok, I moved C and I think I see the mistake. How does this one look now?


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 Rad4633 
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Allistah View Post
Ok, I moved C and I think I see the mistake. How does this one look now?


now comes the easy part watch it for some time and learn how to feel the moves, and when the time is right make ur move and get paid

Best Wishes

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Allistah
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But the chart I posted is now correct? :-) Yeah I'll start watching these things and spending some time on them.

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Allistah
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So what happens when a new high is made and then there are a number of bars that come up that are the same exact high? Do you move the trend line to match the last of the bars that had the same high as all the rest? I hope that makes sense...

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 plethora 
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creekboy View Post
thanks plethora!
Creeker tells me to post what my thoughts are on here sorta like a journal. I do have some notes too. This is kind of fun/boring at times so not sure i like it. Writing on here helps!

Keep learning. Do not stop, and forget about the small stuff like boredom or whether you enjoy trading or not. Just stay focused on becoming an awesome trader. Nothing else matters. Trust.

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Allistah
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Spent a number of hours on this today and I've got it down. Did some backtesting with it as well. Going to start using it tomorrow...

I just have the question about still about multiple higher that touch the same price. You know like a double or triple top where all the peaks are the same exact price.

I'm guessing you just use the latest one. Is that right?


-Alli

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 creekboy 
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Allistah View Post
So what happens when a new high is made and then there are a number of bars that come up that are the same exact high? Do you move the trend line to match the last of the bars that had the same high as all the rest? I hope that makes sense...

yes you are correct.

here is a small example

red is first touch of base

green is 2nd touch

you see where the redline now shifts to green line

once the 2 ma's cross, the trendline you are working on has now completed its course.
once the 2 ma's cross, that is when you start your new trendline.
if the one ma crosses the trendline but doesn't cross the OTHER ma, then you will end up going back to last trendline and adjusting accordingly when it gives you a new hi/lo or matches previous hi/lo.



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 creekboy 
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smae ole same ole

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Allistah
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I saw you guys pointing out when trend lines cross. Does that make a target price or something? Does it have to be a minimum of three lines?


-Alli

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Allistah
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Thanks for the explanation. That matches what I understand. I think I've got it down now. :-)


-Alli

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 creekboy 
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we use them a S/R areas and magnet zones - sometimes when you watch them there will be directional moves triggered (time)at those areas -





Allistah View Post
I saw you guys pointing out when trend lines cross. Does that make a target price or something? Does it have to be a minimum of three lines?


-Alli

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Allistah
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I understand what S/R is but I don't know what a magnet zone is.. Can you explain?


-Alli

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 creekboy 
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Creeker marked up the chart in his normal confusing way so i'll try and make sense of it for you since creeker isn't much of a talker or typer.

When 3 or more trend lines cross, creekboy calls them a magnet. He uses them as an indicator drawing the price up or down to them AND/OR a trigger time, meaning if there's a magnet high above at lets say....1:30 and the MA with the candles is really low, he will look to see if at that time will the magnet pull the MA up to it. Same thing if the magnet is down and the MA is up...will it pull it down to it.

We don't trade off it but use it as a guideline. In the mornining he will go through the chart and find them and put circles around them.

In the picture below, I made the magnets pink and the big ovals are to help you correlate the move with the pink magnet. Please keep in mind that it's just a point of reference to consider or to help you decide to stay in or get out of a trade.
Hope this helps.
NYSOM






Allistah View Post
I understand what S/R is but I don't know what a magnet zone is.. Can you explain?


-Alli

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 creekboy 
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For Alli-

Here's another example of how the low drew itself up to the magnet.

NYSOM


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 creekboy 
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Here's another example on how a magnet works. Notice the blue oval on the bottom of the page, which is the low. We drew a price level from the top left blue oval to the right blue oval to show how the magnet was completed. The blue dotted line is just to show you the length of the trend. Keep in mind that this set up started Monday and completed today, Thursday.
NYSOM


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Allistah
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Thanks for the explanation. That helps a lot.

Now that I'm watching this on the chart live, what should I be looking for as far as an entry goes?

Lets say that things are moving up and price is above the trend line like it is right now on the 1h /ES chart.

At what point is a short triggered?

The reason I ask this is because I've seen price move below the trend line and then pop up above it again and make a new high which would have been a loss. So breaking a trend line by itself is not enough to go short.

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Allistah
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Ok, I've done some testing on the 30m charts. I have a few questions now that I've marked the chart all up.

1) It is often where signals are triggered in after market hours. What do you do when a trigger came in during the night?

2) Lets say you are now long and the first bar is the highest after the MA cross. The MA drops below the trend line and after 2 bars you get out for a loss. The two MA lines however never cross and it moves on to make a new high. D you get back in long at any point or do you sit out until you get a short signal?

Thanks,

-Alli

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 creekboy 
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thanks for your questions


pic of overview


pic 1-note high bar - i use a horizontal bar to give me a time balance to see when possible break would be --also we took the short at 1st signal but market tracked higher -we use a 15 point stop on our pivot short term swing trades so we were still in this trade - you could exit and wait for next setup


pic -2
same situation from last night red bar gives best guess for time and distance















Allistah View Post
Ok, I've done some testing on the 30m charts. I have a few questions now that I've marked the chart all up.

1) It is often where signals are triggered in after market hours. What do you do when a trigger came in during the night?

2) Lets say you are now long and the first bar is the highest after the MA cross. The MA drops below the trend line and after 2 bars you get out for a loss. The two MA lines however never cross and it moves on to make a new high. D you get back in long at any point or do you sit out until you get a short signal?

Thanks,

-Alli


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 creekboy 
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very quiet week - 30 min pivot chart update - banked 16 points per contract traded - i believe that is 4 weeks in a row with 16 points or better for this system - we are currently short form 1412 area with a 15 point stop - we did have a long signal but the 1 trendline was flat and weak -so we stayed in the trade to - we are currently as of this posting 3 points in the red on this trade

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Allistah
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Ok, I've got my charts all set up with what I want to do for now. I've decided that I'm going to start with a 1 day and a 1h chart. If the 1 day chart is long, then I will only take long trades on the 1h chart. I'm sure this will generate a few more questions but this is going to be my starting point. I spent all day yesterday until around 11pm working on playing around with the charts on my watch list. We will see what this coming week brings me. :-)

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Allistah
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very quiet week - 30 min pivot chart update - banked 16 points per contract traded - i believe that is 4 weeks in a row with 16 points or better for this system - we are currently short form 1412 area with a 15 point stop - we did have a long signal but the 1 trendline was flat and weak -so we stayed in the trade to - we are currently as of this posting 3 points in the red on this trade

I set up this exact chart trying to understand exactly what was happening so I can get a better handle on this strategy and it looks like the high at Thursday at 1:30 am (EST) would have been the high. Splitting at that point, it gave an exit signal around 5:30 to 6:00 am (EST).

At 8:30am (EST), it had an equal high which caused the trend line to move which then made it so that the trade was still long, but you would have gotten out before this if it was live data.

I see this happen numerous times in the charts that I'm studying myself. What is the best way to deal with a long trade that gives an exit but then moves on to new highs which makes the exit signal you previously took invalid?

Thanks,

-Alli

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 creekboy 
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there is no greater time in a traders life -then when a real plan comes together -




Allistah View Post
Ok, I've got my charts all set up with what I want to do for now. I've decided that I'm going to start with a 1 day and a 1h chart. If the 1 day chart is long, then I will only take long trades on the 1h chart. I'm sure this will generate a few more questions but this is going to be my starting point. I spent all day yesterday until around 11pm working on playing around with the charts on my watch list. We will see what this coming week brings me. :-)


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 creekboy 
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I see this happen numerous times in the charts that I'm studying myself. What is the best way to deal with a long trade that gives an exit but then moves on to new highs which makes the exit signal you previously took invalid?




this is why we run a 15 point stop - i know some will have a hard time justifing it - but we are up better than 68 points in 4 weeks on this swing pattern -3400 per contract traded (10,000) or 34% for the last month-


also the thursday area your question is concerning - we were holding the 1400 level and based on our pivot method it was best we held the position


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 creekboy 
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also note on post 1080 - the R-2 level ,lines up near perfect of the first high - so i am still looking for a retest of the R-2 area - even though the trade has given us a flatline long signal


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 creekboy 
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got close to our pull back target #6 on chart -R2.

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 creekboy 
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another quiet day -



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 creekboy 
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always check your pivots -to make sure your on the correct side of the move -

still short 1412 -stop 15 points



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 creekboy 
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on this mornings post we showed the 47% level which we were calculating in for a reversal in the 10:47 time area - now if we would have played all entries both short and long -
short 1412 to long 1414 = minus 2 points
long 1414 to short 1414 = 0 points
short 1414 to long 1414 = 0 points
long 1414 to short 1414 which was 2 bars after the faster ma crossed trendline = 0 points

thus we are still short from friday @1412 -trade currently 3 points in the green as of 3:17 est


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 creekboy 
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f16 took her final trade today - put her in with the bigdogs on the TF - we told her ride it till it tells you to get out -

-

took the pic at time of exit -she was a happy girl -as it was her spending money for the shore

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 creekboy 
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UPDATED 30 min chart as of 3:33 est 8/21



:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1088 (permalink)
SteveH
Orlando, Florida, USA
 
 
Posts: 34 since Oct 2010
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"this is why we run a 15 point stop - i know some will have a hard time justifing it - but we are up better than 68 points in 4 weeks on this swing pattern -3400 per contract traded (10,000) or 34% for the last month-"

Give it time. The Law of Large Numbers hasn't kicked in yet.

All I can tell you with 100% confidence from 9 yrs of full-time trading is that, given your long-term expectancy is positive, the winning pct and the RR ratio will always be inverse to one another. For example, if you ever get to thinking that you've found a 2:1 RR system with an avg win pct of 60%, you are being deceived by the short-term results. If the 2:1 part stays solid, the long-term will gravitate the win pct. down towards the low 40's.

This is a general comment. But it's an important one. Larger stops and larger targets cannot alter the above maxim. It is as golden as golden gets in this biz.

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  #1089 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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Hi Steve - we only run a large stop - many of our trades get 2 or 3 or 4 points sometimes only 1 and have seen as high as 27 in the last several weeks -the large stop handles entries and stop out below the recent low for most traders than moving in the direction of the trade in question - i personally have no idea what the r/r is on this setup for the last 4 weeks but the charts are in this post if you care to research them - maybe form here on i will give that info week to week -- in our 34% increase we have been stopped out twice by not catching jumpers - thankyou for your comments and i will try and post the r/r per week -

so i am assuming if the trade gained 2 points the r/r would be -negative 7.5 to 1
would this be correct ?








SteveH View Post
"this is why we run a 15 point stop - i know some will have a hard time justifing it - but we are up better than 68 points in 4 weeks on this swing pattern -3400 per contract traded (10,000) or 34% for the last month-"

Give it time. The Law of Large Numbers hasn't kicked in yet.

All I can tell you with 100% confidence from 9 yrs of full-time trading is that, given your long-term expectancy is positive, the winning pct and the RR ratio will always be inverse to one another. For example, if you ever get to thinking that you've found a 2:1 RR system with an avg win pct of 60%, you are being deceived by the short-term results. If the 2:1 part stays solid, the long-term will gravitate the win pct. down towards the low 40's.

This is a general comment. But it's an important one. Larger stops and larger targets cannot alter the above maxim. It is as golden as golden gets in this biz.


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1090 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: es
 
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many action levels


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1091 (permalink)
 plethora 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Rithmic
Trading: GC
 
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creeker, I missed the change from the rock solid 7-tick stop to the 15-point stop. It's been difficult to follow or understand the rules. Why don't you use the higher trame to indicate when you have a setup and then enter the trade on a lower timeframe so you can maintain a smaller stop?!

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  #1092 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
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thanks for the question - the 15 point stop is for swing trading the 30 MIN es - its the same system - the market has been so flat thaat i felt it was a good time to show it for a week or 2 .
also - on 30 min charts like the es there are very few flatliner trendlines and i wanted to show how you can work around them - so its all about managing these with out having to baby sit them bar by bar









plethora View Post
creeker, I missed the change from the rock solid 7-tick stop to the 15-point stop. It's been difficult to follow or understand the rules. Why don't you use the higher trame to indicate when you have a setup and then enter the trade on a lower timeframe so you can maintain a smaller stop?!


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1093 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
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day 4 for the flatline trade




showing system entry -we did not take because the pivot and flat line are above - we still can go long at anytime


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1094 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
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todays read - 7:24 am est 8/23



:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1095 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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1 deeper thought

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1096 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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ITEM # 6
a super short setup pattern as the ma's crossed just below the pivot line





this is a 30 min swing chart setup

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1097 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: es
 
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#7 - current cross target - distance lines up with other value areas--30 min swing chart


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1098 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
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30 min chart - riding support looking at a 1 am checkup time



:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1099 (permalink)
Allistah
Bay Area, CA
 
 
Posts: 136 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 5 given, 64 received

Hi there..

I was trying to use a set of longer term MAs on the same 2h chart but it made things messy and really hard to read when they were all bunched up. So, I did not show those in these screenshots. I added the daily chart with the same numbers.

I'm trying to take these rules for this system literally. If there is an uptrend on the daily and on the 2h chart, thats a long signal for my weekly option spreads. If reverse, I would go short. If there are reasons why these trades shouldn't have been entered, I might need to have other rules added which would prevent me from getting in.





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  #1100 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

Hi Allistah - i am going to show my opinion on the apple trade -

1st - 2 hour setup




2nd - is 1 hour setup




3rd -is average point range and days in limbo




and 4th - my time guess for your trade - you

you have 675 as high and 652 as a low and if you need to close above 670 area by next friday -
you are in a 23 point range -there is a 27% chance that you will close at or above 670





i will save these charts to see how we end up

if your trade was a put spread on this setup what would it be also what is your call spread

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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