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the easy edge for beginner traders
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Created: by creekboy Attachments:934

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the easy edge for beginner traders

  #1081 (permalink)
Elite Member
phl pa. usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Favorite Futures: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received

also note on post 1080 - the R-2 level ,lines up near perfect of the first high - so i am still looking for a retest of the R-2 area - even though the trade has given us a flatline long signal

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:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1082 (permalink)
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phl pa. usa
 
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got close to our pull back target #6 on chart -R2.

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1083 (permalink)
Elite Member
phl pa. usa
 
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another quiet day -


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:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
Reply With Quote
 
  #1084 (permalink)
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phl pa. usa
 
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always check your pivots -to make sure your on the correct side of the move -

still short 1412 -stop 15 points


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:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
Reply With Quote
 
  #1085 (permalink)
Elite Member
phl pa. usa
 
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on this mornings post we showed the 47% level which we were calculating in for a reversal in the 10:47 time area - now if we would have played all entries both short and long -
short 1412 to long 1414 = minus 2 points
long 1414 to short 1414 = 0 points
short 1414 to long 1414 = 0 points
long 1414 to short 1414 which was 2 bars after the faster ma crossed trendline = 0 points

thus we are still short from friday @1412 -trade currently 3 points in the green as of 3:17 est

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:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
Reply With Quote
 
  #1086 (permalink)
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phl pa. usa
 
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f16 took her final trade today - put her in with the bigdogs on the TF - we told her ride it till it tells you to get out -

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-

took the pic at time of exit -she was a happy girl -as it was her spending money for the shore

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
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  #1087 (permalink)
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UPDATED 30 min chart as of 3:33 est 8/21


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:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to creekboy for this post:
 
  #1088 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Orlando, Florida, USA
 
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"this is why we run a 15 point stop - i know some will have a hard time justifing it - but we are up better than 68 points in 4 weeks on this swing pattern -3400 per contract traded (10,000) or 34% for the last month-"

Give it time. The Law of Large Numbers hasn't kicked in yet.

All I can tell you with 100% confidence from 9 yrs of full-time trading is that, given your long-term expectancy is positive, the winning pct and the RR ratio will always be inverse to one another. For example, if you ever get to thinking that you've found a 2:1 RR system with an avg win pct of 60%, you are being deceived by the short-term results. If the 2:1 part stays solid, the long-term will gravitate the win pct. down towards the low 40's.

This is a general comment. But it's an important one. Larger stops and larger targets cannot alter the above maxim. It is as golden as golden gets in this biz.

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The following 3 users say Thank You to SteveH for this post:
 
  #1089 (permalink)
Elite Member
phl pa. usa
 
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Hi Steve - we only run a large stop - many of our trades get 2 or 3 or 4 points sometimes only 1 and have seen as high as 27 in the last several weeks -the large stop handles entries and stop out below the recent low for most traders than moving in the direction of the trade in question - i personally have no idea what the r/r is on this setup for the last 4 weeks but the charts are in this post if you care to research them - maybe form here on i will give that info week to week -- in our 34% increase we have been stopped out twice by not catching jumpers - thankyou for your comments and i will try and post the r/r per week -

so i am assuming if the trade gained 2 points the r/r would be -negative 7.5 to 1
would this be correct ?








SteveH View Post
"this is why we run a 15 point stop - i know some will have a hard time justifing it - but we are up better than 68 points in 4 weeks on this swing pattern -3400 per contract traded (10,000) or 34% for the last month-"

Give it time. The Law of Large Numbers hasn't kicked in yet.

All I can tell you with 100% confidence from 9 yrs of full-time trading is that, given your long-term expectancy is positive, the winning pct and the RR ratio will always be inverse to one another. For example, if you ever get to thinking that you've found a 2:1 RR system with an avg win pct of 60%, you are being deceived by the short-term results. If the 2:1 part stays solid, the long-term will gravitate the win pct. down towards the low 40's.

This is a general comment. But it's an important one. Larger stops and larger targets cannot alter the above maxim. It is as golden as golden gets in this biz.


:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
Reply With Quote
 
  #1090 (permalink)
Elite Member
phl pa. usa
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Favorite Futures: es
 
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 106 given, 347 received


many action levels

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

:when you cheat -you only cheat yourself
refer to post # 470 & 527 & 930
option traders refer to post 996 thru 1005
Reply With Quote

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