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8% per week


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8% per week

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  #1 (permalink)
 sailingman 
ravensdale wa/USA
 
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[body] This trading journal is a about my goal of grossing an average 8% per week trading grains. I am developing a new system that will trade wheat, beans, cattle and and corn. Not all at the same time of course.

I am using these commodities as they currently offer the best mwDATR. (Average true range in relation to margin requirements)

I am also using Trade Station and a trading system developed by Netpicks called the SST trader. It is a programmable breakout trading system. Very robust.

Not sure if this will help anyone, but it sure will hold me accountable!

Sailingman

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 josh 
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An initial $5000 investment, gaining 8% per week, will yield $253,000 at the end of 1 year if gains are reinvested and leveraged. That's a 5000% annual return on investment. The risk that must be assumed to even fathom a 5000% annual ROI is so astronomically large that I'm sure you have not even considered risk, the most important factor in trading. Am I right? (Without reinvestment and only taking profits, it's still a 400% gain)

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 sailingman 
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josh View Post
An initial $5000 investment, gaining 8% per week, will yield $253,000 at the end of 1 year if gains are reinvested and leveraged. That's a 5000% annual return on investment. The risk that must be assumed to even fathom a 5000% annual ROI is so astronomically large that I'm sure you have not even considered risk, the most important factor in trading. Am I right? (Without reinvestment and only taking profits, it's still a 400% gain)


I said "GOAL" ;-)

Here are my rules that I will be following no matter what:

50K trading account

Take all profits at the end of the month- reset account to 50K (I want a paycheck)

Always maintain a max MM ratio of 2% per trade. If I am in a draw down, then I take fewer positions.

Never initiate a trade through major news events.

The strategy has to have a 70% win/loss ratio and a sharpe ratio of 2 back tested over 300 trades before I trade it. I trade only sim accounts for forward testing for 2 months.

Risk is 2% of account balance per trade, power of quitting= (2) 1.5 X winners per day per contract or a max intra day draw down of 2%. (If I can't afford the trade because of volatility, then stand down)

Always a min of 2 contracts per trade. 1st set to close at 1.5X risk the other to trail on a 4-9 period MA

Trade between 9:00-11:00 only (exchange time) If I have a running trail after 11:00 then monitor position.

No positions held overnight.

If you aim for the stars while having a solid base under you- Who knows what is possible?


sailingman

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 ThatManFromTexas 
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josh View Post
An initial $5000 investment, gaining 8% per week, will yield $253,000 at the end of 1 year if gains are reinvested and leveraged. That's a 5000% annual return on investment. The risk that must be assumed to even fathom a 5000% annual ROI is so astronomically large that I'm sure you have not even considered risk, the most important factor in trading. Am I right? (Without reinvestment and only taking profits, it's still a 400% gain)

@josh

Now look what you've done... I hope you're happy...


I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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 sailingman 
ravensdale wa/USA
 
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I am going to add one more thing before I go sailing...

Last summer I was able to take an 11K futures account and grow it to 41K in 3 months. I realized I was taking WAY too much risk per trade (6%) and should have kept the risk per trade to 2%. My method was simply not sustainable and I would have eventually blown up my account for sure. But one thing I learned is that you can make money doing this but you have to watch your risk like a hawk.

Since then I have set my goal to making a monthly paycheck that is sustainable. If its 1-2% per week, I will be happy, if its more, I will be really happy.

I think the purpose of Big Mike's Forum is about sharing ideas, struggles, breakthroughs and aha moments, and that is what this trading journal is about. Not about bragging rights, or tooting my own horn.

This is about exactly what trades I am taking and why to hold me accountable. I am not there yet, but I know I will be because I can. I do not put other people's dreams down, and I would appreciate if that does not happen here.


There, I said it.

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 researcher247 
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Hola,

Please give exact results along the way and really try an see and write about where your continuing edge is without too much risk per trade. Others will be able to learn from these details if you articulate/write them in enough detail and clearly.

I'll keep a good eye on your journal; good grain traders are somewhat of an anomaly--though those markets do provide good trades for about 60-90 minutes after the open.

peace

hedvig

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 Koepisch 
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sailingman View Post
I said "GOAL" ;-)

Here are my rules that I will be following no matter what:

50K trading account

Take all profits at the end of the month- reset account to 50K (I want a paycheck)

Always maintain a max MM ratio of 2% per trade. If I am in a draw down, then I take fewer positions.

Never initiate a trade through major news events.

The strategy has to have a 70% win/loss ratio and a sharpe ratio of 2 back tested over 300 trades before I trade it. I trade only sim accounts for forward testing for 2 months.

Risk is 2% of account balance per trade, power of quitting= (2) 1.5 X winners per day per contract or a max intra day draw down of 2%. (If I can't afford the trade because of volatility, then stand down)

Always a min of 2 contracts per trade. 1st set to close at 1.5X risk the other to trail on a 4-9 period MA

Trade between 9:00-11:00 only (exchange time) If I have a running trail after 11:00 then monitor position.

No positions held overnight.

If you aim for the stars while having a solid base under you- Who knows what is possible?


sailingman

Sounds good too me. If you have enough confidence to (in?) your strategy, try it and share your experience (and go sailing).

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 ThatManFromTexas 
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sailingman View Post
I am going to add one more thing before I go sailing...

Last summer I was able to take an 11K futures account and grow it to 41K in 3 months. I realized I was taking WAY too much risk per trade (6%) and should have kept the risk per trade to 2%. My method was simply not sustainable and I would have eventually blown up my account for sure. But one thing I learned is that you can make money doing this but you have to watch your risk like a hawk.

Since then I have set my goal to making a monthly paycheck that is sustainable. If its 1-2% per week, I will be happy, if its more, I will be really happy.

I think the purpose of Big Mike's Forum is about sharing ideas, struggles, breakthroughs and aha moments, and that is what this trading journal is about. Not about bragging rights, or tooting my own horn.

This is about exactly what trades I am taking and why to hold me accountable. I am not there yet, but I know I will be because I can. I do not put other people's dreams down, and I would appreciate if that does not happen here.


There, I said it.

@sailingman

You should listen to us... we know stuff... oh, wait...


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There, I said it

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

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 Fat Tails 
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sailingman View Post
I am going to add one more thing before I go sailing...

I only understand now that drown must the short form of draw down....

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 josh 
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sailingman View Post
This is about exactly what trades I am taking and why to hold me accountable. I am not there yet, but I know I will be because I can. I do not put other people's dreams down, and I would appreciate if that does not happen here.


There, I said it.

More power to you my friend. I certainly want you to reach your goals; I love reading the successes of others here on the forum; they help pick me up when I have down moments, and helps me "celebrate along" with them when I have similar celebratory moments. And belief in what we're doing is probably the most important thing we can have, for without it, we have no chance to push through the rough times. But trading is not about warm fuzzies; it's about cold, hard, boring, risk management. The simple math is that to achieve very large returns (which 8% average per week is), one must assume very large risk. So many people talk about how much they can make, and don't mention how much they risk in so doing. But, it sounds from your post that you have a risk management plan, so good luck and keep us posted!

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 Big Mike 
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Congrats on taking the step of starting a journal.

But I have to at least say, you should set yourself up for success instead of failure. Part of that is having a realistic goal.

Based on post #6, it seems more realistic to set your goal to 2% per week and this will also make you happy to hit this goal, while if you still exceed it you will be 'very happy'.

This is just how I think, I understand setting goals but I advocate making them attainable. If you set unrealistic goals then you will possibly make unwise choices trying to get to them.

So bottom line, if you think 8% per week, week over week, is a realistic goal - then it is of course your choice, your money, and your journal. But if you think 8% per week is a pipe dream, it might be best to set a more realistic goal from the beginning.

Mike

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 Lornz 
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I've never understood why people set such profit targets... Are you planning on trading a variety of methods and be able to predict future volatility, or lack thereof?

Returns are asymmetric (at least in my corner of reality); weekly targets are detrimental to trading success. It's important to take advantage of opportunity when it presents itself, but one shouldn't try to force it into existence.

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 Nicolas11 
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Lornz View Post
I've never understood why people set such profit targets... Are you planning on trading a variety of methods and be able to predict future volatility, or lack thereof?

Returns are asymmetric (at least in my corner of reality); weekly targets are detrimental to trading success. It's important to take advantage of opportunity when it presents itself, but one shouldn't try to force it into existence.

Hi @Lornz,

When trading is performed as a business, it does not seem so strange to have a kind of target, above which the business is viable, and under which it is not.

Of course, markets are what they are. And consistent profitability is difficult. But why not have a target in mind and statistically compare one's performance with it on the long run?

Nicolas

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 Lornz 
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Nicolas11 View Post
Hi @Lornz,

When trading is performed as a business, it does not seem so strange to have a kind of target, above which the business is viable, and under which it is not.

Of course, markets are what they are. And consistent profitability is difficult. But why not have a target in mind and statistically compare one's performance with it on the long run?

Nicolas

Disregarding the fact that 8% a week is delusional, it is a fact that the market doesn't present an equal amount of opportunity each week. This means that a fixed goal usually leads to trading too much when one shouldn't, and not enough when one should trade more. There are benchmarks one can compare one's trading to, but that's very different from what the OP is describing. He just bought an automatic system and expects to make 8% a week. Sounds like brilliant plan to me!

Trading is about managing risk, not forcing returns.

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 Sunil P 
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I wish I could project 8% a week on CL consistantly but delusions of grandeurs is Not what this game is about.

Dog days of summer are coming also,I would like to see anybodys EC that would match that number...IMHO


Fats I see you bashing our national game?

Its ok,I dont like it anymore,lost interest in the late 80's. King Fusball is the national game now,no not Soccer!

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 monpere 
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The problem with setting lofty goals is that you will subconsciously set yourself up to to take unnecessary risks to achieve these goals. It will most certainly affect your decision making process as you notice these goals come in and out of jeopardy of being met. You can't force a method to give you more then it is capable of, nor force the market to give you what you expect. You have to work within the limits of your method and the volatility of the market.

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 ThatManFromTexas 
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You can be successful trading like a business ... all you need to do is...

... develop a business plan with specific performance objectives ,adequate auditing to ensure adherence to the plan and a rewards/penalty program for meeting or failing to meet set goals ...do the statistical analysis to determine production quotas ... install iron fisted controls to manage the program


1. Assign yourself a quota

2. If you fail to meet your quota ... put yourself on probation

3. If results don't improve ... require yourself to write progress reports everyday

4. If results still do not improve ... have a meeting with yourself to discuss how to help yourself to meet the quotas (note, this is just to cover your ass with human resources .. the decision has already been made to fire yourself)

5. Run ads on Craigslist offering a position as a trader with unlimited earning potential that provides a proven method to enable success

Dang ... now those guys from Wharton or Sloan are gonna steal this and pass it off as their own...


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 Mickey Caine 
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Is it delussional or a pipe dream to aim to take on average 16 ticks a day out of oil? Based on a $10k account and trading one contract that equates to 8% per week I believe.

There appears to me to be quite a few traders on this forum who may well be getting in excess of that (tick wise). If you compund your profits it would of course become more difficult, however I believe the OP did say he was looking to withdraw his gains on a regular basis. I would think that was an achivable goal for an experienced trader. But I have been wrong before.

Anyway, good luck Mr Sailingman, I hope you trade in calm waters and with a favourable wind.

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 sailingman 
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Thanks for all your kind words! I love crude but the risk-reward is better for smaller accounts in the grains.

Wheat looks like it will have a good day today. I will post my trade (s) later.

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 sailingman 
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With the new trading hours, I will have to completely re think wheat. Normally I trade between 9:30 to 10: 30 exchange time. Today the big moves were earlier. No way to back test this yet.

Too bad I have a 2 winner rule. There were 4 great long trades before 11:00!!

2 trades- 2 contracts on 2nd and 3rd green arrow= $650.00 (1st contract to 3rd dot, 2nd contract trail)

05.21.2012-08.53.45 - RandyBB's library

Too bad it is raining today...

-sailingman

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 researcher247 
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Mickey Caine View Post
Is it delussional or a pipe dream to aim to take on average 16 ticks a day out of oil? Based on a $10k account and trading one contract that equates to 8% per week I believe.

There appears to me to be quite a few traders on this forum who may well be getting in excess of that (tick wise). If you compund your profits it would of course become more difficult, however I believe the OP did say he was looking to withdraw his gains on a regular basis. I would think that was an achivable goal for an experienced trader. But I have been wrong before.

Anyway, good luck Mr Sailingman, I hope you trade in calm waters and with a favourable wind.

Fair enough.

16 CENTS/ticks in CL @ what % risk of margin?

16 cents/ticks in CL w/what size?

A 10 lot CL trader 'averaging 16 cents/ticks' per day in CL is grossing $1.6K per day; not too shabby.

No offense but in order to join larger traders (growing one's business over time--w/'asset-class' diversity & timeframes) one needs to continually grow trading size with static/steady realistic {depending on ones % risk per trade or trading plan money management}.

Original poster {my gut} seems to have this under control.

If he hits 50% of that goal in the 1st fiscal quarter that he begins; that is a smashing success (depending on % dd of margin used).

Let us watch him get into his groove, eh?

peace

hedvig

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 Big Mike 
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sailingman View Post
Too bad I have a 2 winner rule.

Can I ask why you have this rule? What is the thinking behind it?

Mike

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 sailingman 
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This is something I have learned recently that really helped my trading:

What
Where
When
How

What- Decide and STICK with either stocks, options, futures or forex. Each can provide you with a great income, but you have to get to know them as each has its own personality.

Where-Which platform and is best for your trading? If you are going to trade options, then look at the providers that specialize in options, Options Express and TOS (think or swim) are two good ones. Find the one you like and STICK with it until you know that platform inside and out. Platforms that allow you to sim trade are great for back testing.

When- Do you have a day job? Then maybe swing trading or options is best for you. I prefer day trading, but that is just me. There is no right or wrong time frame. Again, find what you like and STICK with it.

How- Create or buy a system(s) that you trust over time will give you a positive expectancy. The only way to really trust your system is to manually back test for at least 200 trades and log your results in a spreadsheet. Go over that spreadsheet like a fine tooth comb. Draw downs, time of day, days of the week, number of losers in a row, trading through different time frames is the only way to really trust your system. It takes a lot of time, but its the only way and there are NO shortcuts. When you have tested and sim traded for at least 2 months, then try a small amount of real money and STICK with it.

Notice the common tread here ;-)

-sailingman

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 sailingman 
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Big Mike View Post
Can I ask why you have this rule? What is the thinking behind it?

Mike

Mike,

The 2 winner rule is only for Wheat. My back testing showed that the 3rd trade after the open using my system was a looser 56% of the time. Now with the new trading hours on wheat, it looks like that rule may no longer apply. My problem, is there is no way to test it yet, so I will sim trade a 3rd and 4th trade.

Also, I found the over trading a position was not good for my finger ;-)

-sailingman

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 Big Mike 
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sailingman View Post
My back testing showed that the 3rd trade after the open using my system was a looser 56% of the time.

Are you sure this backtest has a large enough sample size to be statistically significant? It just seems improbable, but then again I don't know what the win rate of trade #1 and #2 are supposed to be.

Mike

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 sailingman 
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Well,

I guess this is why trading is so interesting. My trade plan with wheat was working like clockwork and now with the new hours, the setups are happening much earlier than I want to getup. I did catch 3 moves today. I decided to test 3 winners.

1 buy and 9:32 a sell at 9:58 and another sell at 10:14

2012-05-23_0834 - RandyBB's library

Nice day all in all. 728.00

May the road rise up to meet you. May the wind always be at your back. May the sun shine warm upon your face, and rains fall soft upon your fields.

-sailingman
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 sailingman 
ravensdale wa/USA
 
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Sorry for the long delay in between posts. My goal was to post at least once per week.

I have been invited to trade for a prop firm and decided I would give it a try. This way I am being held accountable by someone else than just myself.

Here are the rules to trade for them:
1) 50K starting account
2) 30 days sim trading first and achieving all goals before getting funded

Goals/Rules
1) Intra day trades only
2) Only futures contracts over 20K daily volume
3) Max daily $1,000 draw down (2%)
4) Profit target $5,000 per month

If any of the above parameters are broken, then you go back to sim trading for 30 days.

Using these parameters, 6% a week is unrealistic in my opinion. My target will be 12% a month or 3% per week using this system.

My next post will be the details on what and when I am trading for them.

sailing man

May the road rise up to meet you. May the wind always be at your back. May the sun shine warm upon your face, and rains fall soft upon your fields.

-sailingman
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 sailingman 
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Big Mike View Post
Are you sure this backtest has a large enough sample size to be statistically significant? It just seems improbable, but then again I don't know what the win rate of trade #1 and #2 are supposed to be.

Mike

Sorry for the delay, I am not getting an update when someone posts here. How do I do that?

Position 1 is a 1X risk, position 2 is a 1.5 X risk. Risk is usually around 2%, sometimes less depending on volatility. So my power of quitting for gains = 3.5% per day.

I have tried testing power of quitting wins= 2 loss = 2. So that I have a 1-1.5 ratio, but I think that needs more work.

My sample rate was one year.

May the road rise up to meet you. May the wind always be at your back. May the sun shine warm upon your face, and rains fall soft upon your fields.

-sailingman
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 Big Mike 
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sailingman View Post
Sorry for the delay, I am not getting an update when someone posts here. How do I do that?

Top of any thread click "Follow Thread" if you aren't following it already.

Then, UserCP - List Subscriptions. You can then make changes from there as to the frequency.

Mike

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