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With the new trading hours, I will have to completely re think wheat. Normally I trade between 9:30 to 10: 30 exchange time. Today the big moves were earlier. No way to back test this yet.
Too bad I have a 2 winner rule. There were 4 great long trades before 11:00!!
2 trades- 2 contracts on 2nd and 3rd green arrow= $650.00 (1st contract to 3rd dot, 2nd contract trail)
A 10 lot CL trader 'averaging 16 cents/ticks' per day in CL is grossing $1.6K per day; not too shabby.
No offense but in order to join larger traders (growing one's business over time--w/'asset-class' diversity & timeframes) one needs to continually grow trading size with static/steady realistic {depending on ones % risk per trade or trading plan money management}.
Original poster {my gut} seems to have this under control.
If he hits 50% of that goal in the 1st fiscal quarter that he begins; that is a smashing success (depending on % dd of margin used).
This is something I have learned recently that really helped my trading:
What
Where
When
How
What- Decide and STICK with either stocks, options, futures or forex. Each can provide you with a great income, but you have to get to know them as each has its own personality.
Where-Which platform and is best for your trading? If you are going to trade options, then look at the providers that specialize in options, Options Express and TOS (think or swim) are two good ones. Find the one you like and STICK with it until you know that platform inside and out. Platforms that allow you to sim trade are great for back testing.
When- Do you have a day job? Then maybe swing trading or options is best for you. I prefer day trading, but that is just me. There is no right or wrong time frame. Again, find what you like and STICK with it.
How- Create or buy a system(s) that you trust over time will give you a positive expectancy. The only way to really trust your system is to manually back test for at least 200 trades and log your results in a spreadsheet. Go over that spreadsheet like a fine tooth comb. Draw downs, time of day, days of the week, number of losers in a row, trading through different time frames is the only way to really trust your system. It takes a lot of time, but its the only way and there are NO shortcuts. When you have tested and sim traded for at least 2 months, then try a small amount of real money and STICK with it.
The 2 winner rule is only for Wheat. My back testing showed that the 3rd trade after the open using my system was a looser 56% of the time. Now with the new trading hours on wheat, it looks like that rule may no longer apply. My problem, is there is no way to test it yet, so I will sim trade a 3rd and 4th trade.
Also, I found the over trading a position was not good for my finger ;-)
Are you sure this backtest has a large enough sample size to be statistically significant? It just seems improbable, but then again I don't know what the win rate of trade #1 and #2 are supposed to be.
I guess this is why trading is so interesting. My trade plan with wheat was working like clockwork and now with the new hours, the setups are happening much earlier than I want to getup. I did catch 3 moves today. I decided to test 3 winners.
1 buy and 9:32 a sell at 9:58 and another sell at 10:14
Sorry for the long delay in between posts. My goal was to post at least once per week.
I have been invited to trade for a prop firm and decided I would give it a try. This way I am being held accountable by someone else than just myself.
Here are the rules to trade for them:
1) 50K starting account
2) 30 days sim trading first and achieving all goals before getting funded
Goals/Rules
1) Intra day trades only
2) Only futures contracts over 20K daily volume
3) Max daily $1,000 draw down (2%)
4) Profit target $5,000 per month
If any of the above parameters are broken, then you go back to sim trading for 30 days.
Using these parameters, 6% a week is unrealistic in my opinion. My target will be 12% a month or 3% per week using this system.
My next post will be the details on what and when I am trading for them.
sailing man
May the road rise up to meet you. May the wind always be at your back. May the sun shine warm upon your face, and rains fall soft upon your fields.
Sorry for the delay, I am not getting an update when someone posts here. How do I do that?
Position 1 is a 1X risk, position 2 is a 1.5 X risk. Risk is usually around 2%, sometimes less depending on volatility. So my power of quitting for gains = 3.5% per day.
I have tried testing power of quitting wins= 2 loss = 2. So that I have a 1-1.5 ratio, but I think that needs more work.
My sample rate was one year.
May the road rise up to meet you. May the wind always be at your back. May the sun shine warm upon your face, and rains fall soft upon your fields.
