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Trading NQ Order Flow using Cumulative Delta
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Trading NQ Order Flow using Cumulative Delta

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Takoma Park, MD USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor R/T, TOS, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Velocity/TT/DTNIQ
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 42 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Trading NQ Order Flow using Cumulative Delta

I am starting a trade journal because I hope the public accountability will help me reduce the number of unforced errors I make.

I trade pullbacks in the trend on my larger time frame (2 Renko).

I enter when price rolls back into the direction of the trend and is confirmed by order flow (cumulative delta and cumulative up/down tick) as well as by the flow in the NASDAQ equities (NASDAQ 100 TICK).

I enter no more than 3.75 pt from the previous swing high/low.

I trade 2 contracts - stop is 4.5 pts and I use two profit targets: 4.5 pts and 9 pts. The profit targets are adjustable based on price action.


Constructive criticism is welcome.

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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Takoma Park, MD USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor R/T, TOS, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Velocity/TT/DTNIQ
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 42 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

First Trade 5.17.2012


Bad trade.

Structure-wise the entry was good. I tried to short a pullback that put the NQ a few points below the vwap. Entered at 2548.75.

Unfortunately, I was too early. The cumulative delta on the higher time frame and the NASDAQ TICK were both still showing buying; I should have been more patient.

Exit at 2551.75 for 3 pt loss per contract.

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  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Takoma Park, MD USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor R/T, TOS, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Velocity/TT/DTNIQ
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 42 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Second Trade 5.17.2012

Bad Trade

After the short went against me my bias switched to long despite the structure and order flow saying short.

Entered long at 2555.75 right at the vwap even though the was a strong sell response on the large time frame Cum delta. Another thing I missed was that this move up was just a retest of the consolidation at the end of the session yesterday. If I had done a little homework before trading to day I would have realized that sell response was a reaction to that area. Took the full 4.5 pt loss on this trade.

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  #5 (permalink)
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Takoma Park, MD USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor R/T, TOS, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Velocity/TT/DTNIQ
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 42 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Third Trade 5.17.2012

Good Trade

Went short at 2538.25 after a 20 pt pullback. NQ came within 2 points of vwap and rolled back over. Order flow was bearish on both time frames and NASDAQ TICK was making lower highs.

Moved my first target in 2 ticks because of small consolidation area made during the up move. You can see it in the screen shot just to the left of the 1st target arrow - after two bad trades I wanted to make sure that my first one got hit and some risk was taken off.

Got a small pullback shortly after the 1st target got hit. The higher timeframe showed decent buy response and I was still impatient after the two bad trades so I flattened the trade for 3 pts and that contract.

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Nicely done on the journal, looking forward to more.

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  #7 (permalink)
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Trade 1 5.18.2012

Two trades today: one good one bad.

First trade entry was great; 2nd contract could have been managed better.

Shortly after the open, NQ made a lower high in a failed retest of the Globex high. Price rolled over then retraced about 13 pts back up to vwap to make a second lower high. I went short at 2507.00 and 1st target was hit easily. Unfortunately, it failed to extend the downtrend as there was a buy response at previous swing low. Should have exited the 2nd contract when I saw the up/down tick on higher timeframe turn bullish but let it run so I was taken out at breakeven.

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  #8 (permalink)
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Takoma Park, MD USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor R/T, TOS, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Velocity/TT/DTNIQ
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 42 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Trade 2 5.18.2012

Bad entry. Bad Trade.

After the NQ failed to make new lows in my first trade price moved back up to vwap and I got short again. 3 things should have told me it was a bad short:

1. Higher time frame up/down tick was still above its moving average which is bullish

2. the move from swing low to swing high was stronger and faster than the previous move from low to high. Order flow was stronger, there were no retraces and it made the move in 3 min vs. 15 min.

3. there had been no follow through in the NASDAQ tick in the previous leg down, it never made it to -350.


Should have skipped this one and it cost me the profit from the first trade.

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Takoma Park, MD USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: Velocity/TT/DTNIQ
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 42 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Recap Wednesday 5.23.2012

Tough day for me today. 4 trades: Two full stops, two tiny winners. The winners were bad trades though, I just recognized it in time to get out without feeling any pain.

This morning's choppy downtrend was just a bull flag after monday's strong move up. There were a couple of decent short setups on pullbacks but I didn't get in on either of them. After today I realize that I get tunnel vision when I trade and that there are two things I need to work on watching more consistently. I need to pay better attention to the NASDAQ TICK and I need to look to the left on the chart to look for support/resistance that might prevent my trades from moving in my direction.

I've also decided to post homework chart for the next day's session showing what I should anticipate.

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Takoma Park, MD USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Investor R/T, TOS, Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Velocity/TT/DTNIQ
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 42 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 7 given, 17 received

Trade 1 5.23.2012


Full 4.5 pt stop.

Trade was good in structure and order flow. NQ made a double bottom then ran up through the vwap then pulled back to it. Good buy response came in so I got long (it's hard to tell on the HTF but the arrows point out the topping tails on the CD and UpDown tick).

What I didn't give enough weight too was the equities. In the move up, the TICK didn't even get up to 350. At the time of my entry, it was making lower highs and lower lows and the moving average was well below the zero line. I got sucked in by a quick spike that barely passed above the zero line.

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