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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance
Started:May 14th, 2012 (07:40 PM) by wldman Views / Replies:49,689 / 695
Last Reply:November 1st, 2016 (03:53 PM) Attachments:53

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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance

Old May 14th, 2012, 07:40 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance

So I happened by the board of trade this morning and ran into a mentor with whom I lost contact in recent years. A brilliant man, a legendary trader, truly a wonder. In his mid 70's now, he was on a field trip with "at risk" high school kids that wanted to see the trading floor and learn about markets. In his 70's teaching inner city kids real value, for free, because he can, and believes he should.

He asked me to talk with the kids. I told the kids that I learned more value from their teacher in two weeks than in my entire time in college. He responded that he learned at least that much from me as well. He told the kids my "Indian" name...Hototo which means warrior spirit sings....and the hopi word Koyaanisqatsi which means life out of balance. (also see brilliant film fro early 80's) He asked me not about trading, but rather what I was learning from teaching others to trade. Before I could be embarrassed and tell him I was not doing that, he said...yet you seek balance?

So I got a chance to describe a few areas that where not so clear to which the response came...lets get together,wldman, bring your journal.

So here begins a public journal and a regular review of documented trades. I don't set out to "teach", but the process will. That however is not my intention. I know that I will learn and I will benefit more than anyone else from the process. "Life out of Balance"

I'm not going to lay out the "methods", that will naturally come to be if anyone follows what develops. I'm just going to journal each day as I was taught to do and we will see what develops.

I won't talk in dollars, rather in ticks. Size will be "units" as to be both not too arrogant or too humble. We measure trades as effective or ineffective. The emotional context is at least as important as the actions taken. I'm not ever going to entertain automation. I'm a discretionary trader using mostly objective methods based on hierarchy or confluence of non-colinear indicators...of which price action is king. I make money almost every day. I kill losers little.
I have a difficulty judging tone in forum posts. I will respectfully communicate my opinion. I suffer fools with grace, but I am not so well with jerks. I evaluate everything. I retain what is valuable and I let pass without harm that which is not valuable, to me.

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Old May 14th, 2012, 07:40 PM   #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
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Wldman's public trading journal

     

Old May 14th, 2012, 08:26 PM   #3 (permalink)
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This guy you know...is his first name Kevin by any chance ?

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Old May 14th, 2012, 08:42 PM   #4 (permalink)
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No...

his first name is Irwin. I used to watch him do the NY Times crossword puzzle in about 5 minutes...in pen. I do know an S&P old timer named Kevin but he might be almost 60 not mid 70's.

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Old May 14th, 2012, 11:06 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Hearing from friends...

Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
that CME and possibly CBOT and CBOE administrative staffs have been told not to come in to work beginning Wednesday through next Tuesday. Firm traders and locals are being urged to treat Wednesday as if it where Friday and avoid wearing trading jackets or floor ID's outside.

So, given the Greek situation, the European bank downgrades, the huge question mark about the Tuesday payment and the future of austerity in Greece and France the risk reward proposition in my opinion looks like a "no trade" situation for the next few days.

I guess I will evaluate the "primary method" to see if it can be made simpler or more efficient.

Is the best way to do that one chart element at a time?

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Old May 15th, 2012, 09:03 AM   #6 (permalink)
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fundamental view

Asking myself this morning, what news item could cause a sustained rally in eurusd and what are the chances given all that is going on that eurusd puts in a bullish range? If I had an opinion it would include the notion that failure to progress above or at least hold the 1.2850 level would almost certainly test yesterdays level of 1.2815 to 1.2790. Below 1.2790, I think is potentially "Katie Bar the Door" territory as that might signal that reasonable men can not agree either in or on Greece. "Men: being a term for "people", no offense to Ms. Merkel. Targets on the long side are much more conservative in my opinion, 1.2880 to 1.2890.

There where reasonably important economic releases overnight and today's calendar includes CPI data. A surprise number could move things but I think that would be temporary given the back story.

So, the tendency should be a short bias and rejection or rollback the size of any counter trend indications. Targets on the downside should be expanded with an early lead and absolutely no off the reservation risk on the long side.

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Old May 15th, 2012, 09:13 AM   #7 (permalink)
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200 per ...

seems to be support here for a while.

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In my mind, time, is an element of risk. The longer we go without hitting the target areas the more likely I am the bring in a very tight stop or close the trade and go eat.

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Old May 15th, 2012, 09:54 AM   #8 (permalink)
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this may become untenable...

document and posting of each trade as it unfolds may become to big of a distraction. I don't really intend real time trading calls but I realize that skeptics will question one chart at the end of the day. But I need to keep in mind that I do this for me not for impressing the group.

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Short 1.2854 was a little bit early based on the chart view, but the idea in my head that there will be no easy resolution in Greece and that the Chicago trading floors will be nearly empty rest of the week made me jump a little. I must have a low faith short bias.

The attempt at the 200 period ma and three bar rally had me cover a "relief" buy at the 200 period, Resting there based on the idea that "if it gets back here I'm getting lighter"...that is kind of weak, but I defend profits with my life because I do not ever want to accept the psychology of losing. + 8 ticks

Manual target at "inside rad" bot one textbook method trade. Bot 1.2835. +19 ticks

Witness slight decay in indicator base. See a few bids flash. higher low and higher close signal imo, what was a week final cover. The better approach would have been to reel in a "profit lock stop" in the area of the 200 period ma...maybe at the initial cover 1.2846...bot 1.2841. +13 ticks.

First cover emotional, second cover on method perfect, third cover to defensive. Over all "grade" B-

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Old May 15th, 2012, 10:01 AM   #9 (permalink)
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CSJOMF...

is an acryonym for really bad potty language. No sooner do I get three fish safely in the boat that the scenario that I outlined in the "daily view" hits the tape...NO DEAL in Greece...quick, Katie Bar the Door. Dang it!

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Always the bridesmaid NEVER the GD bride! Dang it!

All the way to the figure 1.2800 and looks lower still.


Last edited by wldman; May 15th, 2012 at 10:03 AM. Reason: add insult to injury.
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Old May 15th, 2012, 10:49 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Pullback re-entry...


short @90

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Feels like a grudge trade here but it stes up on method.

Initial risk 98, recent st high.

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