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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance
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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance

  #791 (permalink)
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salt lake utah
 
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rintin2x's Avatar
 
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Sorry in advance...but you made it sound really funny that you covered at new ATH.

I really love reading veterans trading the same instrument as I do, because I believe I can learn here and there. Really appreciate your effort & time, keep it up Dan!

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  #792 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Hey Terry

@tturner86

Reading the entire thread for the first time. Seeing a lot that learned, including every wrong turn on the way to developing some good and some bad ideas. BUT this post was CRITICAL and mostly overlooked at the time. Wisdom Terry.


tturner86 View Post
I'm sure there is.

Think about the gas gauge, water temp, and battery indicators in your car. You can fully operate you car on the highway without using any of these. They do not help you drive the car, or get on the highway. But if you are on the highway and one of these are giving a bad reading, then you know it's time to pull over.

Same in trading, an indicator my not help you get into a trade, but it can help you determine if you should be looking for an exit. I believe some people put too much into indicators while others write them all off. I believe that every tool has its place and usefulness.


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  #793 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Hey Terry


@tturner86

Reading the entire thread for the first time. Seeing a lot that learned, including every wrong turn on the way to developing some good and some bad ideas. BUT this post was CRITICAL and mostly overlooked at the time. Wisdom Terry.


tturner86 View Post
I'm sure there is.

Think about the gas gauge, water temp, and battery indicators in your car. You can fully operate you car on the highway without using any of these. They do not help you drive the car, or get on the highway. But if you are on the highway and one of these are giving a bad reading, then you know it's time to pull over.

Same in trading, an indicator my not help you get into a trade, but it can help you determine if you should be looking for an exit. I believe some people put too much into indicators while others write them all off. I believe that every tool has its place and usefulness.


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  #794 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Uncle wldman...

wants to share an anecdote and provide some context about what I don't know. Well about one thing that I don't know or maybe two....otherwise evening would come and I'd still be typing.

I own a bunch of 80 dollar AAPL. Unlike my BRK, I never wanted to buy AAPL. I had a flip phone into 2010 so while I understand product lifecycle and early adoption as it relates to beneficial ownership, sometimes I suck. Pete, a CBOE friend and Scott a CME friend pressured me into the AAPL long.

Old timers here will remember my vociferous rejection of the FB IPO. @Big Mike and I had different views discussed here and I was right some of the time. Again, I'm not an early adopter or accept-er of new tech or new valuation ideas. This is why the dinosaurs died.

So, May of 1997 a new guy to the trading desk, but someone that was at the firm for long enough for me to have an opinion came to me with the idea that he would make a market in an online book seller that was going to IPO in a few days. AMZN was the symbol, he said. It was the idea of a guy that worked for a hedge fund, D.E. Shaw. Shaw had put together a collaborative of young investment banking guys and tasked them to discover ways to profit from the "information super highway" and associated ideas that my benefit. Everyone should find the articles related to the six or seven guys from that group that became beeyonairs from the ideas turned businesses from that colaborative. The seven: DE Shaw, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Reid Hoffman, David Siegel, and John Overdeck.

My response: YOU are not making a market in anything this month, especially not an online bookstore...that one will be zero by the millennium. YES, wldman has always been that smart. I told the guy that if he was profitable for three months running and this bookstore held its initial bid that long we'd put up that number and he could run that deck. Three months later, FNG...the effing new guy, was trading upstart AMZN.

This was, in spite of me, a great number for the firm. through 98 to 00, we made great money filling customer orders and positioning the stock. It was the kind of situation where you could be wrong five dollars in the morning and be up five dollars by lunch.

In August of 2000 I was looking for a change, and certainly ready to be on my own, free from a corporate structure. An aside here. If or when you come to a crossroads where you believe you have "walking away money", effing walk! You probably don't have ALL you need, but you can always come back, you can always make more money...but time, time is fleeting and it is the most valuable quantity in life.

So, at CBOE I found myself in the AIG crowd, which also included the bookseller AMZN. By that time the "boom" was over. AMZN and the other internet stock phenomenons seemed to assimilate into general market/trading culture. Life was good, very good. Then 9/11. Eight digit loss in Sept/Oct 2001. Remember what I said about walking away money? Now the only place I was gonna walk was to the damn El to get to work or to the local food pantry. The options at this point are win, or die.

I won. It sucked....hard and often. I will note that I was forever changed and that I do not think I will ever completely recover. Remember what I said about money and time. Screw the money, I can always make more money...but the time I had to take away from my family to regain and maintain the focus to do it...that is what pisses me off.

Many old timers wound down their careers post 9/11. One guy, Scotty, with two days left in the month, tells the crowd that he is hanging it up. He was an original member...from before there were puts. Scott was a "spreader", meaning his positions were build by spreading off the risk. Remember the CBOE floor was mostly order flow and arbitrage. Huge positions happened as a result, not by intention. One tenant of good trading was/is to be long "the wings" so long out of the money far expiration. This protects you and allows you to profit from big moves either way. Ideally you like to sell lots of near term at the money or in the money premium. When respected guys retired the crowd would try as best they could to take them out of their options positions. This was orderly and helped everyone.

Scott caught a bunch of shit because his retirement, at least as it related to his trading business, was that he was going to close everything, liquidate all stock positions...EXCEPT the online bookstore. It was mid 2003. Scott was leaving active trading with 48,352 shares of the online bookstore. AMZN was mid 20's to low 30's in mid 2003. So the retirement take away for a guy that probably made 500,000 to 1,000,000 a year was a relatively modest million and a half bucks.

I saw Scott for the first time since that day last Saturday. He was behind me in a food concession line and I heard F()cK you wldman, still looking at the screen and cant make up your mind! We laughed a lot, Re hashed old stories, gossiped and generally pissed off our waiting wives. We hugged for the first time....competitors on the floor don't hug...exchanged numbers and as a parting shot I said, "are you still counting on that online bookstore to pay your bills? I'd be bid with. He responded in true fashion, "Screw you WLD, you are out. Always tryna get on my trades late". We exchanged the typical insults and hugged again.

I cant be sure what he did with that position. He and his wife are on the big print section for a lot of philanthropic organizations. They left in a big SUV, the plates were his floor acronym, the driver was an employee. So, I'm thinking the Gahdamn online bookseller worked out okay.

48,352 AMZN on the bid is $86,646,784. No need to call Catholic Charities on this one.

So out of the countless "morals" in this story. Expand your time frame? Be thoughtful, consider and learn new things everyday? Keep what is valuable, discard without harm, that which is not valuable? Press the shit out of winners, kill losers small? Do not listen to detractors? Stay focused on your disciple?

Trade well friends, and be well.

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  #795 (permalink)
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Dan the man. Glad to see you around again.

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  #796 (permalink)
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Awesome story, thanks @wldman

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  #797 (permalink)
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Dang it...

Some days you are the statue, some days you are the pigeon.


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  #798 (permalink)
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Pigeon day so far...

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  #799 (permalink)
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Have a great day everyone.

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  #800 (permalink)
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Nice divergences. What indicator is that?

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