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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance
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Koyaanisqatsi Hototo--wldman out of balance

  #621 (permalink)
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Okay...

from the top a discussion of my view on risk.

Risk and stops are not the same. Risk is your view of the current condition and half of the mental equation that determines if this is a good place to open or close a trade. Risk must considered against something other than maximum amount of money you will lose on a trade or in a day....stops. So risk is the context within which you are checking down a decision metric. In my opinion setting risk as a dollar anount or a number of ticks is putting all the focus on losses and invariably that on which you continually focus will invite itself to be your reality. Expect to win on every trade or do not take the trade. Focus on what the best possible outcome might be in the given context. If that is grim you are outside of the appropriate risk level.

Risk is not a P/L issue, risk is the context of what conditions are evident and the evaluation of likely conditions that MAY soon come to pass.

In 20 years I have NEVER used a formula (meaning equation) for determining the place where I will realize losses. Is that process not completely opposed to the reason we are engaged in this endevor? IMO, again, that is a metric for portfolio management, not market speculation. This money that I trade is RISK capital. That means if it all goes away I am tangibly unchanged financially. Risk capital is not investment, and it is certainly not savings or even worse operating cash flow. If your trading account is not risk capital, meaning money that can be vaporized without any real or lasting impact on lifestyle...STOP trading or reduce your exposure accordingly. That said if you are trading a three lot micro in the M6E, realize that even if you are among the most legendary traders in the world, you will not make more than a "normal" 9-5 income for a very very long time.

Also, never ever get comfortable with the idea that you are going to deposit $100,000 and draw a living from trading profits. Can 100,000 become 10,000,000...sure but not while buying cars, paying mortgages and tuition. This activity as a career is more difficult than pushing a boulder up a waterfall.

Okay, with respect to risk, the big difference that none of the pop psychology or financial authors tell you. Professionals, the ones most books are written about, have a very different financial metric. Firm capital, professional risk, and the ability to utilize a near perfect hedge are items that the retail guy will NEVER have. If anyone wants more on those items, type it and I'll explain.

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  #622 (permalink)
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So if you believe...

that you have an edge that can be exploited for gain focus on taking good trades and being out of bad trades.

The demonstorable context (for me), in other words "risk". What could jack with me today.

1) What is going on in the world?
2) Who is speaking today or what economic news is expected?
3) What are the fundamentals...i.e., what is the known options expiration for the 10 am NY cut. who or are there known or rumored points of trading interest? What are the widely followed price points. Trend, momentum, volatility, volume. What are flows (order and money) in other markets?

Know these items, study these items and know how nuances might impact the tape.

For example:

I'd say 6E is in an uptrend:

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What are my expectations on longs and how are they different from expectations on a short? Well known that options expiry is huge (at least a yard) and that stops have been building at 1.2550. Here is the shorter term chart at that same time around 5:30 am cst.

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  #623 (permalink)
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So with a brief context...


and a strongly confirming chart view, here is "risk" assessment.

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so wheel it forward a bar or two om the short term chart:

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  #624 (permalink)
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@wldman your a gentleman and a scholar.

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  #625 (permalink)
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So...

I do not know if we have that bear trapped in the right cave, but that is an initial demonstration fo how I view risk. Original inquirer is that a direction you care about? Does anyone want the "target assesment or the next trade or its risk diagramed?

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  #626 (permalink)
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I want this chronicled here as well...

https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/32772-one-year-later-into-my-trading-ca...ction-11.html#post458867

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  #627 (permalink)
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Silvester17 View Post
the attached version of pas pro has the anaKVO indicator included.

in the indicator window, look for the following:

01.Features:

- 11.divergence indicator = custom (custom = anaKVO)
- 13.divergence parameter1 = fast ema period (default = 34)
- 14.divergence parameter2 = signal period (default = 13)
- 15.divergence parameter3 = slow ema period (default = 55)

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also just in case. you can select to show only hidden, regular or both divergences.

05.divergence visualization:



- 01.show regular divergence
- 02.show hidden divergence

and as an added bonus:

regular Divergence:

- price is making higher highs while the indicator is not

- price is making lower lows while the indicator is not


hidden Divergence:

- indicator is making higher highs while price is not

- indicator is making lower lows while the price is not


@Silvester17,

how would i get another indicator into PAS,assuming it has 2-3-5,or even just 1 parameters?VWAP,for e.g.?

Thank you.

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  #628 (permalink)
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Holy smokes

Lots of stuff in here, from trading psychology to indicators, entries, exits, stories about life, balancing

I just read all of this thread (started it last night) and the content in here is fantastic

Thanks @wldman for all the stuff here

Looks like you've gone pretty quiet lately ... any plans to continue your journal here?

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  #629 (permalink)
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Hey Man...

@spideysteve

Yes, I have been quiet. I felt that I wasn't thinking right about a few business related issues and decided to go introspective for solutions. Still enjoying that process. I'm logging in to analytics maybe once a week but "trading" has taken a backseat to a much longer time frame.

I'm around though and I'm happy that you enjoyed the thread. I'd chat about stuff or hear what is on your mind, but I think I'll be absent from "wizard" status for a while.

Be Well.

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  #630 (permalink)
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Nice to hear from you again sir. I hope you are doing great

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